Aligning conservation priorities across taxa in Madagascar with high-resolution planning tools

Globally, priority areas for biodiversity are relatively well known, yet few detailed plans exist to direct conservation action within them, despite urgent need. Madagascar, like other globally recognized biodiversity hot spots, has complex spatial patterns of endemism that differ among taxonomic groups, creating challenges for the selection of within-country priorities. We show, in an analysis of wide taxonomic and geographic breadth and high spatial resolution, that multitaxonomic rather than single-taxon approaches are critical for identifying areas likely to promote the persistence of most species. Our conservation prioritization, facilitated by newly available techniques, identifies optimal expansion sites for the Madagascar government's current goal of tripling the land area under protection. Our findings further suggest that high-resolution multitaxonomic approaches to prioritization may be necessary to ensure protection for biodiversity in other global hot spots.

Climate Change Adaptation for Conservation in Madagascar

Madagascar's imperilled biota are now experiencing the effects of a new threat—climate change (Raxworthy et al. 2008). With more than 90% endemism among plants, mammals, reptiles and amphibians, the stakes are high. The pristine landscapes that allowed this exceptional biodiversity to survive past climate changes are largely gone. Deforestation has claimed approximately 90% of the island's natural forest (Ingram & Dawson 2005; Harper et al. 2007) and what remains is highly fragmented, providing a poor template for large-scale species range shifts. The impacts of current and future climate change may therefore be much different than past impacts, with profound implications for biodiversity.
We review evidence of past response to climate change, models of future change and projected biological response, developing insights to formulate adaptation actions for reducing extinction in Madagascar's biota. We then explore the cost of implementing actions and examine new income opportunities developing through efforts to mitigate climate change.

Neotropical refugia

Patterns of endemism in the Neotropics have been explained by restriction of forest to ‘refugia’ in arid cold-stages of the Quaternary (Haffer J (1969)
Speciation in Amazonian forest birds. Science 165: 131–137). The palaeoecological record, however, shows no such forest contraction. We review
palaeoecological and phylogenetic data on the response of Neotropical taxa and communities to climatic changes of the Cenozoic. Solar insolation varies
over this period with latitude and geography, including shifts in opposite directions between high and low latitudes. In the Neotropics, distribution and
abundance patterns originate on a wide range of timescales through the Cenozoic, down to the currently dominant precession forcing (20 kyr). In contrast,
distributions and abundances at higher latitudes are controlled by obliquity forcing (40 kyr). The patterns observed by Haffer (1969) are likely derived
from pre-Quaternary radiations and are not inconsistent with palaeoecological findings of continuous forest cover in major areas of the Neotropics
during the Quaternary. The relative proportions of speciation processes have changed through time between predominantly sympatric to predominantly
allopatric depending on the prevailing characteristics of orbitally forced climatic changes. Behaviour of Neotropical organisms and ecosystems on long
timescales may be influenced much more by precessional forcing than by the obliquity forcing that controls high-latitude climate change and glaciations.

A high resolution 15,600-year pollen and microcharcoal record from the Cederberg Mountains, South Africa

The Cederberg Mountains (Western Cape Province, South Africa) are located within the Fynbos Biome, which exhibits some of the highest levels of species richness and endemism in the world. The region's post-glacial vegetation history, however, remains largely unknown. Presented here are high resolution pollen and microcharcoal records spanning the last 15,600 years obtained from the De Rif rock hyrax midden from the Driehoek Valley of the central Cederberg. In this region, previous pollen studies have shown muted variability in vegetation community composition during periods of globally marked climatic variability (e.g. the last glacial-interglacial transition). In our record, however, significant changes in vegetation composition are apparent. Most notably, they indicate a shift from ericaceous/restioid fynbos (present from 15,600 to 13,300 cal yr BP) to a brief, but prominent, development of proteoid fynbos at the beginning of the Holocene around 11,200 cal yr BP. This vegetation shift is associated with increased moisture at the site, and coincides with reduced fire frequency as indicated by the microcharcoal record. At 10,400 cal yr BP, there is a marked reduction in Protea-type pollen, which is replaced by thicket, characterised by Dodonaea, which became the dominant arboreal pollen type. This shift was likely the result of a long relatively fire-free period coupled with warmer and wetter climates spanning much of the early Holocene. A brief but marked decrease in water availability around 8500-8000 cal yr BP resulted in the strong decrease of Dodonaea pollen. The vegetation of the mid- to late Holocene is characterised by the increased occurrence of Asteraceae and succulent taxa, suggesting substantially drier conditions. These data give unprecedented insight into the vegetation dynamics across a period of substantial, rapid climate change, and while they confirm the presence of fynbos elements throughout the last 15,600 years, the results highlight significant fluctuations in the vegetation that were triggered by changes in both climate and fire regimes. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A necessarily complex model to explain the biogeography of the amphibians and reptiles of Madagascar

Pattern and process are inextricably linked in biogeographic analyses, though we can observe pattern, we must infer process. Inferences of process are often based on ad hoc comparisons using a single spatial predictor. Here, we present an alternative approach that uses mixed-spatial models to measure the predictive potential of combinations of hypotheses. Biodiversity patterns are estimated from 8,362 occurrence records from 745 species of Malagasy amphibians and reptiles. By incorporating 18 spatially explicit predictions of 12 major biogeographic hypotheses, we show that mixed models greatly improve our ability to explain the observed biodiversity patterns. We conclude that patterns are influenced by a combination of diversification processes rather than by a single predominant mechanism. A ‘one-size-fits-all’ model does not exist. By developing a novel method for examining and synthesizing spatial parameters such as species richness, endemism and community similarity, we demonstrate the potential of these analyses for understanding the diversification history of Madagascar’s biota.