Setting the Rules of the Game: Mega-Regionals and the Role of the WTO

Faced with a WTO in a state of paralysis, large developed trading nations have shifted their attentions to other fora to pursue their trade policy objectives. In particular, preferential trade agreements (PTAs) are now being used to promote the regulatory disciplines that were previously rejected by developing countries at the multilateral level. These so-called ‘deep’ or ‘21st century’ PTAs address a variety of issues, from technical norms, procurement, investment protection and intellectual property rights to social and environmental protection. Moreover, recently, developed countries have sought to negotiate PTAs which are large in scale, both in terms of economic size and geographical reach, including the so-called ‘mega-regional’ PTAs, such as the EU-US Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, the EU-Japan PTA, the Transpacific Partnership, and the China-backed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. These mega-regional PTAs are distinctive not just in terms of their sheer size and the breadth and depth of issues addressed, but also because some of their proponents readily admit that one of the central aims pursued by such agreements is to design global rules on new trade issues. In other words, these agreements are being conceived as alternatives to multilateral rule making at the WTO level. The proliferation of 21st century trade deals raises important questions concerning the continued relevance of the WTO as a global rule-making venue, and the impact that the regulatory disciplines promoted in such agreements will have on both developing and developed countries. This paper discusses the emerging features of an international trading system that is increasingly populated by large-scale PTAs and discusses some of the points of tension that arise from such practice. Firstly, it examines instances of horizontal tension resulting from the proliferation of PTAs, particularly the extent to which such PTAs represent a threat or multilateral trade governance. Secondly, it looks at an example of vertical tension by examining the manner in which the imposition of regulatory disciplines through trade agreements can undermine the ability of countries, especially developing countries, to pursue legitimate public interest objectives. Finally, the paper considers a number of steps that could be considered to address some of the adverse effects associated with the fragmentation of the international trading system, including the option of embracing variable geometry within the WTO framework and the need to develop mechanisms that provide flexibility for developing countries in the implementation of regulatory disciplines.

National incomes and economic growth in pre-industrial Europe: insights from recent research

Pessimistic Malthusian verdicts on the capacity of pre-industrial European economies to sustain a degree of real economic growth under conditions of population growth are challenged using current reconstructions of urbanisation ratios, the real wage rates of building and agricultural labourers, and GDP per capita estimated by a range of methods. Economic growth is shown to have outpaced population growth and raised GDP per capita to in excess of $1,500 (1990 $ international at PPP) in Italy during its twelfth- and thirteenth-century commercial revolution, Holland during its fifteenth- and sixteenth-century golden age, and England during the seventeenth- and eighteenth-century runup to its industrial revolution. During each of these Smithian growth episodes expanding trade and commerce sustained significant output and employment growth in the manufacturing and service sectors. These positive developments were not necessarily reflected by trends in real wage rates for the latter were powerfully influenced by associated changes in relative factor prices and the per capita supply of labour as workers varied the length of the working year in order to consume either more leisure or more goods. The scale of the divergence between trends in real wage rates and GDP per capita nevertheless varied a great deal between countries for reasons which have yet to be adequately explained.

British economic growth 1270-1870

This is a definitive new account of Britain's economic evolution from a backwater of Europe in 1270 to the hub of the global economy in 1870. For the first time Britain's national accounts are reconstructed right back into the thirteenth century to show what really happened quantitatively during the centuries leading up to the Industrial Revolution. Contrary to traditional views of the earlier period as one of Malthusian stagnation, they reveal how the transition to modern economic growth built on the earlier foundations of a persistent upward trend in GDP per capita which doubled between 1270 and 1700. Featuring comprehensive estimates of population, land use, agricultural production, industrial and service-sector production and GDP per capita, as well as analysis of their implications, this is an essential reference work for those interest in British economic history and the origins of modern economic growth more generally.