Understanding and predicting ecological dynamics: Are major surprises inevitable?

Ecological surprises, substantial and unanticipated changes in the abundance of one or more species that result from previously unsuspected processes, are a common outcome of both experiments and observations in community and population ecology. Here, we give examples of such surprises along with the results of a survey of well-established field ecologists, most of whom have encountered one or more surprises over the course of their careers. Truly surprising results are common enough to require their consideration in any reasonable effort to characterize nature and manage natural resources. We classify surprises as dynamic-, pattern-, or intervention-based, and we speculate on the common processes that cause ecological systems to so often surprise us. A long-standing and still growing concern in the ecological literature is how best to make predictions of future population and community dynamics. Although most work on this subject involves statistical aspects of data analysis and modeling, the frequency and nature of ecological surprises imply that uncertainty cannot be easily tamed through improved analytical procedures, and that prudent management of both exploited and conserved communities will require precautionary and adaptive management approaches.

Ecological impacts of an invasive predator explained and predicted by comparative functional responses

Forecasting the ecological impacts of invasive species is a major challenge that has seen little progress, yet the development of robust predictive approaches is essential as new invasion threats continue to emerge. A common feature of ecologically damaging invaders is their ability to rapidly exploit and deplete resources. We thus hypothesized that the 'functional response' (the relationship between resource density and consumption rate) of such invasive species might be of consistently greater magnitude than those of taxonomically and/or trophically similar native species. Here, we derived functional responses of the predatory Ponto-Caspian freshwater 'bloody red' shrimp, Hemimysis anomala, a recent and ecologically damaging invader in Europe and N. America, in comparison to the local native analogues Mysis salemaai and Mysis diluviana in Ireland and Canada, respectively. This was conducted in a novel set of experiments involving multiple prey species in each geographic location and a prey species that occurs in both regions. The predatory functional responses of the invader were generally higher than those of the comparator native species and this difference was consistent across invaded regions. Moreover, those prey species characterized by the strongest and potentially de-stabilizing Type II functional responses in our laboratory experiments were the same prey species found to be most impacted by H. anomala in the field. The impact potential of H. anomala was further indicated when it exhibited similar or higher attack rates, consistently lower prey handling times and higher maximum feeding rates compared to those of the two Mysis species, formerly known as 'Mysis relicta', which itself has an extensive history of foodweb disruption in lakes to which it has been introduced. Comparative functional responses thus merit further exploration as a methodology for predicting severe community-level impacts of current and future invasive species and could be entered into risk assessment protocols.

The use of Ecological and Carbon Footprint Analysis in regional policy making: application and insights using the REAP model

This paper builds on and extends previous research to contribute to ongoing discussion on the use of resource and carbon accounting tools in regional policy making. The Northern Visions project has produced the first evidence-based footpath setting out the actions that need to be taken to achieve the step changes in the Ecological and Carbon Footprint of Northern Ireland. A range of policies and strategies were evaluated using the Resources and Energy Analysis Programme. The analysis provided the first regional evidence base that current sustainable development policy commitments would not lead to the necessary reductions in either the Ecological Footprint or carbon dioxide emissions. Building on previous applications of Ecological Footprint analysis in regional policy making, the research has demonstrated that there is a valuable role for Ecological and Carbon Footprint Analysis in policy appraisal. The use of Ecological and Carbon Footprint Analysis in regional policy making has been evaluated and recommendations made on ongoing methodological development. The authors hope that the research can provide insights for the ongoing use Ecological and Carbon Footprint Analysis in regional policy making and help set out the priorities for research to support this important policy area

Ecological Impacts of Alien Species: Quantification, Scope, Caveats, and Recommendations

Despite intensive research during the past decade on the effects of alien species, invasion science still lacks the capacity to accurately predict the impacts of those species and, therefore, to provide timely advice to managers on where limited resources should be allocated. This capacity has been limited partly by the context-dependent nature of ecological impacts, research highly skewed toward certain taxa and habitat types, and the lack of standardized methods for detecting and quantifying impacts. We review different strategies, including specific experimental and observational approaches, for detecting and quantifying the ecological impacts of alien species. These include a four-way experimental plot design for comparing impact studies of different organisms. Furthermore, we identify hypothesis-driven parameters that should be measured at invaded sites to maximize insights into the nature of the impact. We also present strategies for recognizing high-impact species. Our recommendations provide a foundation for developing systematic quantitative measurements to allow comparisons of impacts across alien species, sites, and time.

Ecological dynamics of extinct species in empty habitat networks. 2. The role of host plant dynamics

This paper explores the relative effects of host plant dynamics and butterfly-related parameters on butterfly persistence. It considers an empty habitat network where a rare butterfly (Cupido minimus) became extinct in 1939 in part of its historical range in north Wales, UK. Surviving populations of the butterfly in southern Britain were visited to assess use of its host plant (Anthyllis vulneraria) in order to calibrate habitat suitability and carrying capacity in the empty network in north Wales. These data were used to deduce that only a portion ( similar to 19%) of the host plant network from north Wales was likely to be highly suitable for oviposition. Nonetheless, roughly 65,460 eggs (3273 adult equivalents) could be expected to be laid in north Wales, were the empty network to be populated at the same levels as observed on comparable plants in surviving populations elsewhere. Simulated metapopulations of C. minimus in the empty network revealed that time to extinction and patch occupancy were significantly influenced by carrying capacity, butterfly mean dispersal distance and environmental stochasticity, although for most reasonable parameter values, the model system persisted. Simulation outputs differed greatly when host plant dynamics was incorporated into the modelled butterfly dynamics. Cupido minimus usually went extinct when host plant were at low densities. In these simulations host plant dynamics appeared to be the most important determinant of the butterfly's regional extirpation. Modelling the outcome of a reintroduction programme to C. minimus variation at high quality locations, revealed that 65% of systems survived at least 100 years. Given the current amount of resources of the north Wales landscape, the persistence of C. minimus under a realistic reintroduction programme has a good chance of being successful, if carried out in conjunction with a host plant management programme.

Ecological communities are vulnerable to realistic extinction sequences

Loss of species will directly change the structure and potentially the dynamics of ecological communities, which in turn may lead to additional species loss (secondary extinctions) due to direct and/or indirect effects (e.g. loss of resources or altered population dynamics). Furthermore, the vulnerability of food webs to repeated species loss is expected to be affected by food web topology, species interactions, as well as the order in which species go extinct. Species traits such as body size, abundance and connectivity might determine a species' vulnerability to extinction and, thus, the order in which species go primarily extinct. Yet, the sequence of primary extinctions, and their effects on the vulnerability of food webs to secondary extinctions, when species abundances are allowed to respond dynamically, has only recently become the focus of attention. Here, we analyse and compare topological and dynamical robustness to secondary extinctions of model food webs, in the face of 34 extinction sequences based on species traits. Although secondary extinctions are frequent in the dynamical approach and rare in the topological approach, topological and dynamical robustness tends to be correlated for many bottom-up directed, but not for top-down directed deletion sequences. Furthermore, removing species based on traits that are strongly positively correlated to the trophic position of species (such as large body size, low abundance, high net effect) is, under the dynamical approach, found to be as destructive as removing primary producers. Such top-down oriented removal of species are often considered to correspond to realistic extinction scenarios, but earlier studies, based on topological approaches, have found such extinction sequences to have only moderate effects on the remaining community. Thus, our result suggests that the structure of ecological communities, and therefore the integrity of important ecosystem processes could be more vulnerable to realistic extinction sequences than previously believed.