Oil Market Modelling: A Comparative Analysis of Fundamental and Latent Factor Approaches

We formally compare fundamental factor and latent factor approaches to oil price modelling. Fundamental modelling has a long history in seeking to understand oil price movements, while latent factor modelling has a more recent and limited history, but has gained popularity in other financial markets. The two approaches, though competing, have not formally been compared as to effectiveness. For a range of short- medium- and long-dated WTI oil futures we test a recently proposed five-factor fundamental model and a Principal Component Analysis latent factor model. Our findings demonstrate that there is no discernible difference between the two techniques in a dynamic setting. We conclude that this infers some advantages in adopting the latent factor approach due to the difficulty in determining a well specified fundamental model.

Mechanical stretch up-regulates the B-type natriuretic peptide system in human cardiac fibroblasts:a possible defense against transforming growth factor-β mediated fibrosis

BACKGROUND: Mechanical overload of the heart is associated with excessive deposition of extracellular matrix proteins and the development of cardiac fibrosis. This can result in reduced ventricular compliance, diastolic dysfunction, and heart failure. Extracellular matrix synthesis is regulated primarily by cardiac fibroblasts, more specifically, the active myofibroblast. The influence of mechanical stretch on human cardiac fibroblasts' response to pro-fibrotic stimuli, such as transforming growth factor beta (TGFβ), is unknown as is the impact of stretch on B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) and natriuretic peptide receptor A (NPRA) expression. BNP, acting via NPRA, has been shown to play a role in modulation of cardiac fibrosis.

METHODS AND RESULTS: The effect of cyclical mechanical stretch on TGFβ induction of myofibroblast differentiation in primary human cardiac fibroblasts and whether differences in response to stretch were associated with changes in the natriuretic peptide system were investigated. Cyclical mechanical stretch attenuated the effectiveness of TGFβ in inducing myofibroblast differentiation. This finding was associated with a novel observation that mechanical stretch can increase BNP and NPRA expression in human cardiac fibroblasts, which could have important implications in modulating myocardial fibrosis. Exogenous BNP treatment further reduced the potency of TGFβ on mechanically stretched fibroblasts.

CONCLUSION: We postulate that stretch induced up-regulation of the natriuretic peptide system may contribute to the observed reduction in myofibroblast differentiation.

Analysis of friction factor reduction in turbulent water flow using a superhydrophobic coating

This study provides experimental and theoretical evidence that the coating of the inner surface of copper pipes with superhydrophobic (SH) materials induces a Cassie state flow regime on the flow of water. This results in an increase in the fluid's dimensionless velocity distribution coefficient, a, which gives rise to an increase in the apparent Reynolds number, which may approach the "plug flow state". Experimental evidence from the SH coating of a classic unsteady-state flow system resulted in a significant decrease in the friction factor and associated energy loss. The friction factor decrease can be attributed to an increase in the apparent Reynolds number. The study demonstrates that the Cassie effects imposed by SH coating can be quantitatively shown to decrease the frictional resistance to flow in commercial pipes.