Evaluating Train Protection Systems

This paper arose from the work carried out for the Cullen/Uff Joint Inquiry into Train Protection Systems. It is concerned with the problem of evaluating the benefits of safety enhancements in order to avoid rare, but catastrophic accidents, and the role of Operations Research in the process. The problems include both input values and representation of outcomes. A key input is the value of life. This paper briefly discusses why the value of life might vary from incident to incident and reviews alternative estimates before producing a 'best estimate' for rail. When the occurrence of an event is uncertain, the normal method is to apply a single 'expected' value. This paper argues that a more effective method of representing such situations is through Monte-Carlo simulation and demonstrates the use of the methodology on a case study of the decision as to whether or not advanced train protection (ATP) should have been installed on a route to the west of London. This paper suggests that the output is more informative than traditional cost-benefit appraisals or engineering event tree approaches. It also shows that, unlike the results from utilizing the traditional approach, the value of ATP on this route would be positive over 50% of the time.

Contaminants in surface water and sediments around the Tynagh Mine, Galway, Ireland.

A former silver mine in Tynagh, Co. Galway, Ireland is one of the most contaminated mine sites in Europe with maximum concentrations of Zn, As, Pb, Mn, Ni, Cu, and Cd far exceeding guideline values for water and sediment. The aims of this research were to 1) further assess the contamination, particularly metals, in surface water and sediment around the site, and 2) determine if the contamination has increased 10 years after the Environmental Protection Agency Ireland (EPAI) identified off-site contamination. Site pH is alkaline to neutral because CaCO3-rich sediment and rock material buffer the exposed acid generating sulphide-rich ore. When this study was compared to the previous EPAI study conducted 10 years earlier, it appeared that further weathering of exposed surface sediment had increased concentrations of As and other potentially toxic elements. Water samples from the tailings ponds and adjacent Barnacullia Stream had concentrations of Al, Cd, Mn, Zn and Pb above guideline values. Lead and Zn concentrations from the tailings pond sediment were 16 and 5 times higher, respectively, than concentrations reported 10 years earlier. Pb and Zn levels in most sediment samples exceeded the Expert Group (EGS) guidelines of 1000 and 5000 mg/kg, respectively. Arsenic concentrations were as high as 6238 mg/kg in the tailings ponds sediment, which is 62 and 862 times greater than the EGS and Canadian Soil Quality Guidelines (CSQG), respectively. Cadmium, Cu, Fe, Mn, Pb and Zn concentrations in water and sediment were above guideline values downstream of the site. Additionally, Fe, Mn and organic matter (OM) were strongly correlated and correlated to Zn, Pb, As, Cd, Cu and Ni in stream sediment. Therefore, the nearby Barnacullia Stream is also a significant pathway for contaminant transport to downstream areas. Further rehabilitation of the site may decrease the contamination around the area.