Oil Market Modelling: A Comparative Analysis of Fundamental and Latent Factor Approaches

We formally compare fundamental factor and latent factor approaches to oil price modelling. Fundamental modelling has a long history in seeking to understand oil price movements, while latent factor modelling has a more recent and limited history, but has gained popularity in other financial markets. The two approaches, though competing, have not formally been compared as to effectiveness. For a range of short- medium- and long-dated WTI oil futures we test a recently proposed five-factor fundamental model and a Principal Component Analysis latent factor model. Our findings demonstrate that there is no discernible difference between the two techniques in a dynamic setting. We conclude that this infers some advantages in adopting the latent factor approach due to the difficulty in determining a well specified fundamental model.

Cardiomyopathy in Offspring of Pregestational Diabetic Mouse Pregnancy

PURPOSE: To investigate cardiomyopathy in offspring in a mouse model of pregestational type 1 diabetic pregnancy.

METHODS: Pregestational diabetes was induced with STZ administration in female C57BL6/J mice that were subsequently mated with healthy C57BL6/J males. Offspring were sacrificed at embryonic day 18.5 and 6-week adolescent and 12-week adult stages. The size and number of cardiomyocyte nuclei and also the extent of collagen deposition within the hearts of diabetic and control offspring were assessed following cardiac tissue staining with either haematoxylin and eosin or Picrosirius red and subsequently quantified using automated digital image analysis.

RESULTS: Offspring from diabetic mice at embryonic day 18.5 had a significantly higher number of cardiomyocyte nuclei present compared to controls. These nuclei were also significantly smaller than controls. Collagen deposition was shown to be significantly increased in the hearts of diabetic offspring at the same age. No significant differences were found between the groups at 6 and 12 weeks.

CONCLUSIONS: Our results from offspring of type 1 diabetic mice show increased myocardial collagen deposition in late gestation and have increased myocardial nuclear counts (hyperplasia) as opposed to increased myocardial nuclear size (hypertrophy) in late gestation. These changes normalize postpartum after removal from the maternal intrauterine environment.

Combustion Noise

Combustion noise is becoming increasingly important as a major noise source in aeroengines and ground based gas turbines. This is partially because advances in design have reduced the other noise sources, and partially because next generation combustion modes burn more unsteadily, resulting in increased external noise from the combustion. This review reports recent progress made in understanding combustion noise by theoretical, numerical and experimental investigations. We first discuss the fundamentals of the sound emission from a combustion region. Then the noise of open turbulent flames is summarized. We subsequently address the effects of confinement on combustion noise. In this case not only is the sound generated by the combustion influenced by its transmission through the boundaries of the combustion chamber, there is also the possibility of a significant additional source, the so-called ‘indirect’ combustion noise. This involves hot spots (entropy fluctuations) or vorticity perturbations produced by temporal variations in combustion, which generate pressure waves (sound) as they accelerate through any restriction at the exit of the combustor. We describe the general characteristics of direct and indirect noise. To gain further insight into the physical phenomena of direct and indirect sound, we investigate a simple configuration consisting of a cylindrical or annular combustor with a low Mach number flow in which a flame zone burns unsteadily. Using a low Mach number approximation, algebraic exact solutions are developed so that the parameters controlling the generation of acoustic, entropic and vortical waves can be investigated. The validity of the low Mach number approximation is then verified by solving the linearized Euler equations numerically for a wide range of inlet Mach numbers, stagnation temperature ratios, frequency and mode number of heat release fluctuations. The effects of these parameters on the magnitude of the waves produced by the unsteady combustion are investigated. In particular the magnitude of the indirect and direct noise generated in a model combustor with a choked outlet is analyzed for a wide range of frequencies, inlet Mach numbers and stagnation temperature ratios. Finally, we summarize some of the unsolved questions that need to be the focus of future research