A Conditional Approach for Modelling Patient Re-admissions in Hospital using a mixture of Coxian phase-type distributions incorporating Bayes Theorem

The number of elderly patients requiring hospitalisation in Europe is rising. With a greater proportion of elderly people in the population comes a greater demand for health services and, in particular, hospital care. Thus, with a growing number of elderly patients requiring hospitalisation competing with non-elderly patients for a fixed (and in some cases, decreasing) number of hospital beds, this results in much longer waiting times for patients, often with a less satisfactory hospital experience. However, if a better understanding of the recurring nature of elderly patient movements between the community and hospital can be developed, then it may be possible for alternative provisions of care in the community to be put in place and thus prevent readmission to hospital. The research in this paper aims to model the multiple patient transitions between hospital and community by utilising a mixture of conditional Coxian phase-type distributions that incorporates Bayes' theorem. For the purpose of demonstration, the results of a simulation study are presented and the model is applied to hospital readmission data from the Lombardy region of Italy.

Effects of a demand-led evidence briefing service on the uptake and use of research evidence by commissioners of health services: protocol for a controlled before and after study

Background: Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs) are mandated to use research evidence effectively to ensure optimum use of resources by the National Health Service (NHS), both in accelerating innovation and in stopping the use of less effective practices and models of service delivery. We intend to evaluate whether access to a demand-led evidence service improves uptake and use of research evidence by NHS commissioners compared with less intensive and less targeted alternatives. 

Methods/design: This is a controlled before and after study involving CCGs in the North of England. Participating CCGs will receive one of three interventions to support the use of research evidence in their decision-making:1) consulting plus responsive push of tailored evidence; 2) consulting plus an unsolicited push of non-tailored evidence; or 3) standard service unsolicited push of non-tailored evidence. Our primary outcome will be changed at 12 months from baseline of a CCGs ability to acquire, assess, adapt and apply research evidence to support decision-making. Secondary outcomes will measure individual clinical leads and managers’ intentions to use research evidence in decision making. Documentary evidence of the use of the outputs of the service will be sought. A process evaluation will evaluate the nature and success of the interactions both within the sites and between commissioners and researchers delivering the service. 

Discussion: The proposed research will generate new knowledge of direct relevance and value to the NHS. The findings will help to clarify which elements of the service are of value in promoting the use of research evidence.Those involved in NHS commissioning will be able to use the results to inform how best to build the infrastructure they need to acquire, assess, adapt and apply research evidence to support decision-making and to fulfil their statutory duties under the Health and Social Care Act.

Demand response to improved walking infrastructure: A study into the economics of walking and health behaviour change

Walking is the most common form of moderate‐intensity physical activity among adults, is widely accessible and especially appealing to obese people. Most often policy makers are interested in valuing the effect on walking of changes in some characteristics of a neighbourhood, the demand response for walking, of infrastructure changes. A positive demand response to improvements in the walking environment could help meet the public health target of 150 minutes of at least moderate‐intensity physical activity per week. We model walking in an individual’s local neighbourhood as a ‘weak complement’ to the characteristics of the neighbourhood itself. Walking is affected by neighbourhood
characteristics, substitutes, and individual’s characteristics, including their opportunity cost of time.  Using compensating variation, we assess the economic benefits of walking and how walking behaviour is affected by improvements to the neighbourhood.  Using a sample of 1,209 respondents surveyed over a 12 month period (Feb 2010‐Jan 2011) in East Belfast, United Kingdom, we find that a policy that increased walkability and people’s perception of access to shops and facilities  would lead to an increase in walking of about 36 minutes/person/week, valued at £13.65/person/week. When focusing on inactive residents, a policy that improved the walkability of the area would lead to guidelines for physical activity being reached by only 12.8% of the population who are currently inactive. Additional interventions would therefore be needed to encourage inactive residents to
achieve the recommended levels of physical activity, as it appears that interventions that improve the walkability of an area are particularly effective in increasing walking among already active citizens, and, among the inactive ones, the best response is found among healthier, younger and wealthier citizens.

An ecotoxicological approach to assessing the impact of tanning industry effluent on river health

A study was conducted to investigate the sediment health and water quality of the River Sagana, Kenya, as impacted by the local tanning industry. Chemical analysis identified the main chemical pollutants (pentachlorophenols and chromium) while a bioassay addressed pollutant bioavailability. The bioassay, exploiting the luminescence response of a lux marked bacterial biosensor, was coupled to a dehydrogenase and Dapnia magna test to determine toxicity effects on sediments. Results highlighted the toxicity of the tannery effluent to the sediments at the point of discharge (64% of control bioluminescence) with gradual improvement downstream. There was a significant increase in dehydrogenase downstream, with the enzyme activity attaining a peak at 600 m, also indicating a gradual reduction of toxicity. Biological oxygen demand (19.56 mg L(-1)) dissolved oxygen (3.97 mg L(-1)) and high lethal dose value (85%) of D. magna also confirmed an initial stress at the point of discharge and recovery downstream. Optical density of surface water demonstrated an increase in suspended particulates and colour after the discharge point, eventually decreasing beyond 400 m. In conclusion, the study highlighted the importance of understanding the biogeochemistry of river systems impacted by industries discharging effluent into them and the invaluable role of a biosensor-based ecotoxicological approach to address effluent hazards, particularly in relation to river sediments.

Meeting the supportive needs of family caregivers in palliative care:challenges for health professionals

Caring for a dying relative is demanding, and family caregivers have acknowledged many unmet needs associated with their caregiver role. Consistently, caregivers of dying patients with cancer have reported that they need more support and information from health care professionals. Moreover, a number of palliative care clinicians and researchers have called for interventions to enhance the support offered to family caregivers. However, before researchers can develop and test palliative care interventions directed to families, it is important to identify barriers that may confront health care professionals with regard to the provision of supportive family care. For new interventions to be feasible they must be applicable within the constraints of current palliative care service delivery environments. This paper provides an account of issues that may impinge on optimal transference of supportive strategies from health care professionals to family caregivers of patients receiving palliative care. By acknowledging these barriers to supportive care, researchers and health care professionals can begin to design and implement interventions that are clinically relevant and more likely to be effective.

In Demand: Therapeutic Services for Children and Young People Who Have Experienced Sexual Abuse

This paper describes the key findings of an NSPCC study estimating need, in the UK, for therapeutic services for children who have experienced sexual abuse. This is based upon current estimates of the prevalence and impact of sexual abuse towards children and young people against the availability of therapeutic services in the UK. Data were collected on service location, availability, scope and coverage across England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland. Researchers: (1) mapped 508 services; (2) collected data from 195 services via a structured questionnaire; (3) followed up 21 service managers and 11 service commissioners with a semi-structured interview; and (4) carried out two focus groups with young people. Data were collected on service location, availability, scope and coverage The overall level of specialist provision is low, with less than one service available per 10 000 children and young people in the UK. Calculations of need indicate that 57 156 children across the UK in the last year may have been unable to access a service. Findings from services support the view that need outstrips availability; that referral routes are limited, leaving few options for young people who have been raped or seriously sexually assaulted to directly access support; that significant waiting lists mean services must focus on reactive, rather than preventive, work; and that services are less accessible for certain groups, especially sexually abused teenagers, children with disabilities and those from Black, Asian, Minority Ethnic and Refugee backgrounds. Copyright (c) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Key Practitioner Messages Relevant professionals must be adequately trained to talk to children about sexual abuse and to identify those vulnerable in order to identify need. Expert specialist services are well placed to share learning on early help and identification with broader children's service providers. Active steps need to be taken by commissioners in consultation with young people, voluntary sector and adult sexual violence service providers to meet the shortfall at the level of local authorities.

Cancer survivors with self-reported late effects: their health status, care needs and service utilisation

OBJECTIVE: Cancer survivors (CSs) are at risk of developing late effects (LEs) associated with the disease and its treatment. This paper compares the health status, care needs and use of health services by CSs with LEs and CSs without LEs.

METHODS: Cancer survivors (n = 613) were identified via the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry and invited to participate in a postal survey that was administered by their general practitioner. The survey assessed self-reported LEs, health status, health service use and unmet care needs. A total of 289 (47%) CSs responded to the survey, and 93% of respondents completed a LEs scale.

RESULTS: Forty-one per cent (111/269) of CSs reported LEs. Survivors without LEs and survivors with LEs were comparable in terms of age and gender. The LEs group reported a significantly greater number of co-morbidities, lower physical health and mental health scores, greater overall health service use and more unmet needs. Unadjusted logistic regression analysis found that cancer site, time since diagnosis and treatment were significantly associated with reporting of LEs. CSs who received combination therapies compared with CSs who received single treatments were over two and a half times more likely to report LEs (OR = 2.63, 95% CI = 1.32-5.25) after controlling for all other variables.

CONCLUSIONS: The CS population with LEs comprises a particularly vulnerable group of survivors who have multiple health care problems and needs and who require tailored care plans that take account of LEs and their impact on health-related quality of life.

Evaluation of a partnership between primary and secondary care providing an accessible Level 1 sexual health service in the community

Comprehensive testing for asymptomatic sexually transmitted infections in Northern Ireland has traditionally been provided by genitourinary medicine clinics. As patient demand for services has increased while budgets have remained limited, there has been increasing difficulty in accommodating this demand. In May 2013, the newly commissioned specialist Sexual Health service in the South Eastern Trust sought to pilot a new model of care working alongside a GP partnership of 12 practices. A training programme to enable GPs and practice nurses to deliver Level 1 sexual health care to heterosexual patients aged >16 years, in accordance with the standards of BASHH, was developed. A comprehensive care pathway and dedicated community health advisor supported this new model with close liaison between primary and secondary care. Testing for Chlamydia, gonorrhoea, HIV and syphilis was offered. The aims of the pilot were achieved, namely to provide accessible, cost-effective sexual health care within a framework of robust clinical governance. Furthermore, it uncovered a high positivity rate for Chlamydia, especially in young men attending their general practice, and demonstrated a high level of patient satisfaction. Moreover the capacity of secondary care to deliver Levels 2 and 3 services was increased.