A Data Driven Tool supported CLD Creation Approach

The creation of Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) is a major phase in the System Dynamics (SD) life-cycle, since the created CLDs express dependencies and feedback in the system under study, as well as, guide modellers in building meaningful simulation models. The cre-ation of CLDs is still subject to the modeller's domain expertise (mental model) and her ability to abstract the system, because of the strong de-pendency on semantic knowledge. Since the beginning of SD, available system data sources (written and numerical models) have always been sparsely available, very limited and imperfect and thus of little benefit to the whole modelling process. However, in recent years, we have seen an explosion in generated data, especially in all business related domains that are analysed via Business Dynamics (BD). In this paper, we intro-duce a systematic tool supported CLD creation approach, which analyses and utilises available disparate data sources within the business domain. We demonstrate the application of our methodology on a given business use-case and evaluate the resulting CLD. Finally, we propose directions for future research to further push the automation in the CLD creation and increase confidence in the generated CLDs.

Data-Driven Dynamic Modeling of Coupled Thermal and Electric Outputs of Microturbines

Microturbines are among the most successfully commercialized distributed energy resources, especially when they are used for combined heat and power generation. However, the interrelated thermal and electrical system dynamic behaviors have not been fully investigated. This is technically challenging due to the complex thermo-fluid-mechanical energy conversion processes which introduce multiple time-scale dynamics and strong nonlinearity into the analysis. To tackle this problem, this paper proposes a simplified model which can predict the coupled thermal and electric output dynamics of microturbines. Considering the time-scale difference of various dynamic processes occuring within microturbines, the electromechanical subsystem is treated as a fast quasi-linear process while the thermo-mechanical subsystem is treated as a slow process with high nonlinearity. A three-stage subspace identification method is utilized to capture the dominant dynamics and predict the electric power output. For the thermo-mechanical process, a radial basis function model trained by the particle swarm optimization method is employed to handle the strong nonlinear characteristics. Experimental tests on a Capstone C30 microturbine show that the proposed modeling method can well capture the system dynamics and produce a good prediction of the coupled thermal and electric outputs in various operating modes.

Data-Driven Dynamic Prediction of Interrelated Heat and Electric Outputs of Microturbines

Microturbines are among the most successfully commercialized distributed energy resources, especially when they are used for combined heat and power generation. However, the interrelated thermal and electrical system dynamic behaviors have not been fully investigated. This is technically challenging due to the complex thermo-fluid-mechanical energy conversion processes which introduce multiple time-scale dynamics and strong nonlinearity into the analysis. To tackle this problem, this paper proposes a simplified model which can predict the coupled thermal and electric output dynamics of microturbines. Considering the time-scale difference of various dynamic processes occuring within microturbines, the electromechanical subsystem is treated as a fast quasi-linear process while the thermo-mechanical subsystem is treated as a slow process with high nonlinearity. A three-stage subspace identification method is utilized to capture the dominant dynamics and predict the electric power output. For the thermo-mechanical process, a radial basis function model trained by the particle swarm optimization method is employed to handle the strong nonlinear characteristics. Experimental tests on a Capstone C30 microturbine show that the proposed modeling method can well capture the system dynamics and produce a good prediction of the coupled thermal and electric outputs in various operating modes.

Equipping young people to engage with media driven science experiences: beyond science knowledge to science literacy and discerning consumers of news.

This paper reports on a study of a curricular intervention for pupils (age 10-13 years) in the UK aimed at supporting critical engagement with science based media reports. In particular the study focused on core elements of knowledge, skills and attitudes identified in previous studies that characterize critical consumers of science presented as news. This was an empirical study based on classroom observation. Data included responses from individual pupils, in addition video recording of group activity and intentional conversations between pupils and teachers were scrutinised. Analysis focused on core tasks relating to different elements of critical reading. Pupils demonstrated a grasp of questioning and evaluating text, however the capacity to translate this experience in support of a critical response to a media report with a science component is limited in assessing the credibility of text and as an element in critical reading.

Prior knowledge transfer across transcriptional data sets and technologies using compositional statistics yields new mislabelled ovarian cell line

Here, we describe gene expression compositional assignment (GECA), a powerful, yet simple method based on compositional statistics that can validate the transfer of prior knowledge, such as gene lists, into independent data sets, platforms and technologies. Transcriptional profiling has been used to derive gene lists that stratify patients into prognostic molecular subgroups and assess biomarker performance in the pre-clinical setting. Archived public data sets are an invaluable resource for subsequent in silico validation, though their use can lead to data integration issues. We show that GECA can be used without the need for normalising expression levels between data sets and can outperform rank-based correlation methods. To validate GECA, we demonstrate its success in the cross-platform transfer of gene lists in different domains including: bladder cancer staging, tumour site of origin and mislabelled cell lines. We also show its effectiveness in transferring an epithelial ovarian cancer prognostic gene signature across technologies, from a microarray to a next-generation sequencing setting. In a final case study, we predict the tumour site of origin and histopathology of epithelial ovarian cancer cell lines. In particular, we identify and validate the commonly-used cell line OVCAR-5 as non-ovarian, being gastrointestinal in origin. GECA is available as an open-source R package.