The Coxian Phase-type distribution with a Hidden Node

Healthcare providers are under increased pressure to ensure that the quality
of care delivered to patients are off the highest standard. Modelling quality of
care is difficult due to the many ways of defining it. This paper introduces a potential
model which could be used to take quality of care into account when modelling
length of stay. The Coxian phase-type distribution is used to model length of stay
and quality of care incorporated into this using a Hidden Markov model. This model
is then applied to

Electron acoustic soliton energy of the Kadomtsev-Petviashvili equation in the Earth’s magnetotail region at critical ion density

The nonlinear properties of small amplitude electron-acoustic solitary waves (EAWs) in a homogeneous system of unmagnetized collisionless plasma consisted of a cold electron fluid and isothermal ions with two different temperatures obeying Boltzmann type distributions have been investigated. A reductive perturbation method was employed to obtain the Kadomstev-Petviashvili (KP) equation. At the critical ion density, the KP equation is not appropriate for describing the system. Hence, a new set of stretched coordinates
is considered to derive the modified KP equation. Moreover, the solitary solution, soliton energy and the associated electric field at the critical ion density were computed. The present investigation can be of relevance to the electrostatic solitary structures observed in various space plasma environments, such as Earth’s magnetotail region.

LSQ13fn: A type II-Plateau supernova with a possibly low metallicity progenitor that breaks the standardised candle relation∗

We present optical imaging and spectroscopy of supernova (SN) LSQ13fn, a type II supernova with several hitherto-unseen properties. Although it initially showed strong symmetric spectral emission features attributable to He ii, N iii, and C iii, reminiscent of some interacting SNe, it transitioned into an object that would fall more naturally under a type II-Plateau (IIP) classification. However, its spectral evolution revealed several unusual properties: metal lines appeared later than expected, were weak, and some species were conspicuous by their absence. Furthermore, the line velocities were found to be lower than expected given the plateau brightness, breaking the SN IIP standardised candle method for distance estimates. We found that, in combination with a short phase of early-time ejecta-circumstellar material interaction, metal-poor ejecta, and a large progenitor radius could reasonably account for the observed behaviour. Comparisons with synthetic model spectra of SNe IIP of a given progenitor mass would imply a progenitor star metallicity as low as 0.1 Z_⊙. LSQ13fn highlights the diversity of SNe II and the many competing physical effects that come into play towards the final stages of massive star evolution immediately preceding core-collapse.

The VLT-FLAMES Tarantula Survey XXI. Stellar spin rates of O-type spectroscopic binaries

Context: The initial distribution of spin rates of massive stars is a fingerprint of their elusive formation process. It also sets a key initial condition for stellar evolution and is thus an important ingredient in stellar population synthesis. So far, most studies have focused on single stars. Most O stars are, however, found in multiple systems. 

Aims: By establishing the spin-rate distribution of a sizeable sample of O-type spectroscopic binaries and by comparing the distributions of binary subpopulations with one another and with that of presumed-single stars in the same region, we aim to constrain the initial spin distribution of O stars in binaries, and to identify signatures of the physical mechanisms that affect the evolution of the spin rates of massive stars. 

Methods: We use ground-based optical spectroscopy obtained in the framework of the VLT-FLAMES Tarantula Survey (VFTS) to establish the projected equatorial rotational velocities (ν_esini) for components of 114 spectroscopic binaries in 30 Doradus. The ν_esini values are derived from the full width at half maximum (FWHM) of a set of spectral lines, using a FWHM vs. ν_esini calibration that we derive based on previous line analysis methods applied to single O-type stars in the VFTS sample. 

Results: The overall ν_esini distribution of the primary stars resembles that of single O-type stars in the VFTS, featuring a low-velocity peak (at ν_esini<200 kms^-1) and a shoulder at intermediate velocities (200 <ν_esini<300 kms^-1). The distributions of binaries and single stars, however, differ in two ways. First, the main peak at ν_esini ~ 100kms^-1 is broader and slightly shifted towards higher spin rates in the binary distribution than that of the presumed-single stars. This shift is mostly due to short-period binaries (P_orb~<10 d). Second, the ν_esini distribution of primaries lacks a significant population of stars spinning faster than 300 kms^-1, while such a population is clearly present in the single-star sample. The ν_esini distribution of binaries with amplitudes of radial velocity variation in the range of 20 to 200 kms^-1 (mostly binaries with P_orb ~ 10-1000 d and/or with q<0.5) is similar to that of single O stars below ν_esini_~<170kms^-1. 

Conclusions: Our results are compatible with the assumption that binary components formed with the same spin distribution as single stars, and that this distribution contains few or no fast-spinning stars. The higher average spin rate of stars in short-period binaries may either be explained by spin-up through tides in such tight binary systems, or by spin-down of a fraction of the presumed-single stars and long-period binaries through magnetic braking (or by a combination of both mechanisms). Most primaries and secondaries of SB2 systems with P_orb~<10 d appear to have similar rotational velocities. This is in agreement with tidal locking in close binaries where the components have similar radii. The lack of very rapidly spinning stars among binary systems supports the idea that most stars with ν_esini_~> 300kms^-1 in the single-star sample are actually spun-up post-binary interaction products. Finally, the overall similarities (low-velocity peak and intermediate-velocity shoulder) of the spin distribution of binary and single stars argue for a massive star formation process in which the initial spin is set independently of whether stars are formed as single stars or as components of a binary system.

Rotational velocities of single and binary O-type stars in the Tarantula Nebula

Rotation is a key parameter in the evolution of massive stars, affecting their evolution, chemical yields, ionizing photon budget, and final fate. We determined the projected rotational velocity, υ e sin i, of ~330 O-type objects, i.e. ~210 spectroscopic single stars and ~110 primaries in binary systems, in the Tarantula nebula or 30 Doradus (30 Dor) region. The observations were taken using VLT/FLAMES and constitute the largest homogeneous dataset of multi-epoch spectroscopy of O-type stars currently available. The most distinctive feature of the υ e sin i distributions of the presumed-single stars and primaries in 30 Dor is a low-velocity peak at around 100 km s^-1. Stellar winds are not expected to have spun-down the bulk of the stars significantly since their arrival on the main sequence and therefore the peak in the single star sample is likely to represent the outcome of the formation process. Whereas the spin distribution of presumed-single stars shows a well developed tail of stars rotating more rapidly than 300 km s^-1, the sample of primaries does not feature such a high-velocity tail. The tail of the presumed-single star distribution is attributed for the most part - and could potentially be completely due - to spun-up binary products that appear as single stars or that have merged. This would be consistent with the lack of such post-interaction products in the binary sample, that is expected to be dominated by pre-interaction systems. The peak in this distribution is broader and is shifted toward somewhat higher spin rates compared to the distribution of presumed-single stars. Systems displaying large radial velocity variations, typical for short period systems, appear mostly responsible for these differences.

The VLT-FLAMES tarantula survey:X. Evidence for a bimodal distribution of rotational velocities for the single early B-type stars

Aims. Projected rotational velocities (ve sin i) have been estimated for 334 targets in the VLT-FLAMES Tarantula Survey that do not manifest significant radial velocity variations and are not supergiants. They have spectral types from approximately O9.5 to B3. The estimates have been analysed to infer the underlying rotational velocity distribution, which is critical for understanding the evolution of massive stars. Methods. Projected rotational velocities were deduced from the Fourier transforms of spectral lines, with upper limits also being obtained from profile fitting. For the narrower lined stars, metal and non-diffuse helium lines were adopted, and for the broader lined stars, both non-diffuse and diffuse helium lines; the estimates obtained using the different sets of lines are in good agreement. The uncertainty in the mean estimates is typically 4% for most targets. The iterative deconvolution procedure of Lucy has been used to deduce the probability density distribution of the rotational velocities. Results. Projected rotational velocities range up to approximately 450 kms-1 and show a bi-modal structure. This is also present in the inferred rotational velocity distribution with 25% of the sample having 0 <ve <100 km s^-1 and the high velocity component having v_e ∼ 250 km s^-1. There is no evidence from the spatial and radial velocity distributions of the two components that they represent either field and cluster populations or different episodes of star formation. Be-type stars have also been identified. Conclusions. The bi-modal rotational velocity distribution in our sample resembles that found for late-B and early-A type stars.While magnetic braking appears to be a possible mechanism for producing the low-velocity component, we can not rule out alternative explanations. © ESO 2013.

Comparing long-term placements for young children in care: Does type of placement really matter?

This paper presents findings from the third phase of a longitudinal study, entitled Care Pathways and Outcomes, which has been tracking the placements and measuring outcomes for a population of children (n = 374) who were under the age of five and in care in Northern Ireland on the 31st March 2000. It explores how a sub-sample of these children at age nine to 14 years old were getting on in the placements provided for them, in comparative terms across five placement types: adoption; foster care; kinship foster care (with relatives); on Residence Order; and living with birth parents. This specifically focused on the development of attachment and self-concept from the perspective of the children, and behavioural and emotional function, and parenting stress, from the perspective of parents and carers. Findings showed no significant placement effect from the perspective of children, and a statistically weak, but descriptively compelling, effect from the perspective of parents. The findings challenge the notion of adoption as the gold standard in long-term placements, specifically from the perspective of children in terms of their parent/carer attachments and self-concept, and highlight what appears to be the central importance of placement longevity for delivering positive longer-term outcomes for these children, irrespective of placement type.

HER2 in high-risk rectal cancer patients treated in EXPERT-C, a randomized phase II trial of neoadjuvant capecitabine and oxaliplatin (CAPOX) and chemoradiotherapy (CRT) with or without cetuximab.

BACKGROUND: HER2 is an established therapeutic target in breast and gastric cancers. The role of HER2 in rectal cancer is unclear, as conflicting data on the prevalence of HER2 expression in this disease have been reported. We evaluated the prevalence of HER2 and its impact on the outcome of high-risk rectal cancer patients treated with neoadjuvant CAPOX and CRT±cetuximab in the EXPERT-C trial. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Eligible patients with available tumour tissue for HER2 analysis were included. HER2 expression was determined by immunohistochemistry (IHC) in pre-treatment biopsies and/or surgical specimens (score 0-3+). Immunostaining was scored according to the consensus panel recommendations on HER2 scoring for gastric cancer. Tumours with equivocal IHC result (2+) were tested for HER2 amplification by D-ISH. Tumours with IHC 3+ or D-ISH ratio ≥2.0 were classified as HER2+. The impact of HER2 on primary and secondary end points of the study was analysed. RESULTS: Of 164 eligible study patients, 104 (63%) biopsy and 114 (69%) surgical specimens were available for analysis. Only 3 of 104 (2.9%) and 3 of 114 (2.6%) were HER2+, respectively. In 77 patients with paired specimens, concordance for HER2 status was found in 74 (96%). Overall, 141 patients were assessable for HER2 and 6 out of 141 (4.3%) had HER2 overexpression and/or amplification. The median follow-up was 58.6 months. HER2 was not associated with a difference in the outcome for any of the study end points, including in the subset of 90 KRAS/BRAF wild-type patients treated±cetuximab. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the low prevalence of expression as recorded in the EXPERT-C trial, HER2 does not appear to represent a useful therapeutic target in high-risk rectal cancer. However, the role of HER2 as a potential predictive biomarker of resistance to anti-EGFR-based treatments and a therapeutic target in anti-EGFR refractory metastatic colorectal cancer (CRC) warrants further investigation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN Register: 99828560.

Multicenter randomized phase II clinical trial comparing neoadjuvant oxaliplatin, capecitabine, and preoperative radiotherapy with or without cetuximab followed by total mesorectal excision in patients with high-risk rectal cancer (EXPERT-C).

PURPOSE: To evaluate the addition of cetuximab to neoadjuvant chemotherapy before chemoradiotherapy in high-risk rectal cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with operable magnetic resonance imaging-defined high-risk rectal cancer received four cycles of capecitabine/oxaliplatin (CAPOX) followed by capecitabine chemoradiotherapy, surgery, and adjuvant CAPOX (four cycles) or the same regimen plus weekly cetuximab (CAPOX+C). The primary end point was complete response (CR; pathologic CR or, in patients not undergoing surgery, radiologic CR) in patients with KRAS/BRAF wild-type tumors. Secondary end points were radiologic response (RR), progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS), and safety in the wild-type and overall populations and a molecular biomarker analysis. RESULTS: One hundred sixty-five eligible patients were randomly assigned. Ninety (60%) of 149 assessable tumors were KRAS or BRAF wild type (CAPOX, n = 44; CAPOX+C, n = 46), and in these patients, the addition of cetuximab did not improve the primary end point of CR (9% v 11%, respectively; P = 1.0; odds ratio, 1.22) or PFS (hazard ratio [HR], 0.65; P = .363). Cetuximab significantly improved RR (CAPOX v CAPOX+C: after chemotherapy, 51% v 71%, respectively; P = .038; after chemoradiation, 75% v 93%, respectively; P = .028) and OS (HR, 0.27; P = .034). Skin toxicity and diarrhea were more frequent in the CAPOX+C arm. CONCLUSION: Cetuximab led to a significant increase in RR and OS in patients with KRAS/BRAF wild-type rectal cancer, but the primary end point of improved CR was not met.

DES14X3taz: A Type I Superluminous Supernova Showing a Luminous, Rapidly Cooling Initial Pre-peak Bump

We present DES14X3taz, a new hydrogen-poor superluminous supernova (SLSN-I) discovered by the Dark Energy Survey (DES) supernova program, with additional photometric data provided by the Survey Using DECam for Superluminous Supernovae. Spectra obtained using Optical System for Imaging and low-Intermediate-Resolution Integrated Spectroscopy on the Gran Telescopio CANARIAS show DES14X3taz is an SLSN-I at z = 0.608. Multi-color photometry reveals a double-peaked light curve: a blue and relatively bright initial peak that fades rapidly prior to the slower rise of the main light curve. Our multi-color photometry allows us, for the first time, to show that the initial peak cools from 22,000 to 8000 K over 15 rest-frame days, and is faster and brighter than any published core-collapse supernova, reaching 30% of the bolometric luminosity of the main peak. No physical 56Ni-powered model can fit this initial peak. We show that a shock-cooling model followed by a magnetar driving the second phase of the light curve can adequately explain the entire light curve of DES14X3taz. Models involving the shock-cooling of extended circumstellar material at a distance of 400  are preferred over the cooling of shock-heated surface layers of a stellar envelope. We compare DES14X3taz to the few double-peaked SLSN-I events in the literature. Although the rise times and characteristics of these initial peaks differ, there exists the tantalizing possibility that they can be explained by one physical interpretation.