A Two-Stage Online Approach for Collaborative Multi-Agent Planning under Uncertainty

In a team of multiple agents, the pursuance of a common goal is a defining characteristic. Since agents may have different capabilities, and effects of actions may be uncertain, a common goal can generally only be achieved through a careful cooperation between the different agents. In this work, we propose a novel two-stage planner that combines online planning at both team level and individual level through a subgoal delegation scheme. The proposal brings the advantages of online planning approaches to the multi-agent setting. A number of modifications are made to a classical UCT approximate algorithm to (i) adapt it to the application domains considered, (ii) reduce the branching factor in the underlying search process, and (iii) effectively manage uncertain information of action effects by using information fusion mechanisms. The proposed online multi-agent planner reduces the cost of planning and decreases the temporal cost of reaching a goal, while significantly increasing the chance of success of achieving the common goal. 

Pig producer perspectives on the use of meat inspection as an animal health and welfare diagnostic tool in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland

Background
Currently, there is growing interest in developing ante and post mortem meat inspection (MI) to incorporate measures of pig health and welfare for use as a diagnostic tool on pig farms. However, the success of the development of the MI process requires stakeholder engagement with the process. Knowledge gaps and issues of trust can undermine the effective exchange and utilisation of information across the supply chain. A social science research methodology was employed to establish stakeholder perspectives towards the development of MI to include measures of pig health and welfare. In this paper the findings of semi-structured telephone interviews with 18 pig producers from the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland are presented.

Results
Producers recognised the benefit of the utilisation of MI data as a health and welfare diagnostic tool. This acknowledgment, however, was undermined for some by dissatisfaction with the current system of MI information feedback, by trust and fairness concerns, and by concerns regarding the extent to which data would be used in the producers’ interests. Tolerance of certain animal welfare issues may also have a negative impact on how producers viewed the potential of MI data. The private veterinary practitioner was viewed as playing a vital role in assisting them with the interpretation of MI data for herd health planning.

Conclusions
The development of positive relationships based on trust, commitment and satisfaction across the supply chain may help build a positive environment for the effective utilisation of MI data in improving pig health and welfare. The utilisation of MI as a diagnostic tool would benefit from the development of a communication strategy aimed at building positive relationships between stakeholders in the pig industry.

Future trends in cystic fibrosis demography in 34 European countries

Median survival has increased in people with cystic fibrosis (CF) during the past six decades, which has led to an increased number of adults with CF. The future impact of changes in CF demographics has not been evaluated. The aim of this study was to estimate the number of children and adults with CF in 34 European countries by 2025. Data were obtained from the European Cystic Fibrosis Society Patient Registry. Population forecasts were performed for countries that have extensive CF population coverage and at least 4 years of longitudinal data by modelling future entering and exiting flows in registry cohorts. For the other countries, population projections were performed based on assumptions from knowledge of current CF epidemiology. Western European countries' forecasts indicate that an increase in the overall number of CF patients by 2025, by approximately 50%, corresponds to an increase by 20% and by 75% in children and adults, respectively. In Eastern European countries the projections suggest a predominant increase in the CF child population, although the CF adult population would also increase.It was concluded that a large increase in the adult CF population is expected in the next decade. A significant increase in adult CF services throughout Europe is urgently required.

A Collaborative Multiagent Framework based on Online Risk-Aware Planning and Decision-Making

Planning is an essential process in teams of multiple agents pursuing a common goal. When the effects of actions undertaken by agents are uncertain, evaluating the potential risk of such actions alongside their utility might lead to more rational decisions upon planning. This challenge has been recently tackled for single agent settings, yet domains with multiple agents that present diverse viewpoints towards risk still necessitate comprehensive decision making mechanisms that balance the utility and risk of actions. In this work, we propose a novel collaborative multi-agent planning framework that integrates (i) a team-level online planner under uncertainty that extends the classical UCT approximate algorithm, and (ii) a preference modeling and multicriteria group decision making approach that allows agents to find accepted and rational solutions for planning problems, predicated on the attitude each agent adopts towards risk. When utilised in risk-pervaded scenarios, the proposed framework can reduce the cost of reaching the common goal sought and increase effectiveness, before making collective decisions by appropriately balancing risk and utility of actions. 

Cost-effectiveness of natriuretic peptide-based screening and collaborative care: a report from the STOP-HF (St Vincent's Screening TO Prevent Heart Failure) study

AIMS: Prevention of cardiovascular disease and heart failure (HF) in a cost-effective manner is a public health goal. This work aims to assess the cost-effectiveness of the St Vincent's Screening TO Prevent Heart Failure (STOP-HF) intervention.

METHODS AND RESULTS: This is a substudy of 1054 participants with cardiovascular risk factors [median age 65.8 years, interquartile range (IQR) 57.8:72.4, with 4.3 years, IQR 3.4:5.2, follow-up]. Annual natriuretic peptide-based screening was performed, with collaborative cardiovascular care between specialist physicians and general practitioners provided to patients with BNP levels >50 pg/mL. Analysis of cost per case prevented and cost-effectiveness per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained was performed. The primary clinical endpoint of LV dysfunction (LVD) with or without HF was reduced in intervention patients [odds ratio (OR) 0.60; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.38-0.94; P = 0.026]. There were 157 deaths and/or emergency hospitalizations for major adverse cardiac events (MACE) in the control group vs. 102 in the intervention group (OR 0.68; 95% CI 0.49-0.93; P = 0.01). The cost per case of LVD/HF prevented was €9683 (sensitivity range -€843 to €20 210), whereas the cost per MACE prevented was €3471 (sensitivity range -€302 to €7245). Cardiovascular hospitalization savings offset increased outpatient and primary care costs. The cost per QALY gain was €1104 and the intervention has an 88% probability of being cost-effective at a willingness to pay threshold of €30 000.

CONCLUSION: Among patients with cardiovascular risk factors, natriuretic peptide-based screening and collaborative care reduced LVD, HF, and MACE, and has a high probability of being cost-effective.

TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT00921960.

Natriuretic peptide-based screening and collaborative care for heart failure:the STOP-HF randomized trial

IMPORTANCE: Prevention strategies for heart failure are needed.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the efficacy of a screening program using brain-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) and collaborative care in an at-risk population in reducing newly diagnosed heart failure and prevalence of significant left ventricular (LV) systolic and/or diastolic dysfunction.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: The St Vincent's Screening to Prevent Heart Failure Study, a parallel-group randomized trial involving 1374 participants with cardiovascular risk factors (mean age, 64.8 [SD, 10.2] years) recruited from 39 primary care practices in Ireland between January 2005 and December 2009 and followed up until December 2011 (mean follow-up, 4.2 [SD, 1.2] years).

INTERVENTION: Patients were randomly assigned to receive usual primary care (control condition; n=677) or screening with BNP testing (n=697). Intervention-group participants with BNP levels of 50 pg/mL or higher underwent echocardiography and collaborative care between their primary care physician and specialist cardiovascular service.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary end point was prevalence of asymptomatic LV dysfunction with or without newly diagnosed heart failure. Secondary end points included emergency hospitalization for arrhythmia, transient ischemic attack, stroke, myocardial infarction, peripheral or pulmonary thrombosis/embolus, or heart failure.

RESULTS: A total of 263 patients (41.6%) in the intervention group had at least 1 BNP reading of 50 pg/mL or higher. The intervention group underwent more cardiovascular investigations (control, 496 per 1000 patient-years vs intervention, 850 per 1000 patient-years; incidence rate ratio, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.61-1.83; P<.001) and received more renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system-based therapy at follow-up (control, 49.6%; intervention, 56.5%; P=.01). The primary end point of LV dysfunction with or without heart failure was met in 59 (8.7%) of 677 in the control group and 37 (5.3%) of 697 in the intervention group (odds ratio [OR], 0.55; 95% CI, 0.37-0.82; P = .003). Asymptomatic LV dysfunction was found in 45 (6.6%) of 677 control-group patients and 30 (4.3%) of 697 intervention-group patients (OR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.37-0.88; P = .01). Heart failure occurred in 14 (2.1%) of 677 control-group patients and 7 (1.0%) of 697 intervention-group patients (OR, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.20-1.20; P = .12). The incidence rates of emergency hospitalization for major cardiovascular events were 40.4 per 1000 patient-years in the control group vs 22.3 per 1000 patient-years in the intervention group (incidence rate ratio, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.45-0.81; P = .002).

CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE: Among patients at risk of heart failure, BNP-based screening and collaborative care reduced the combined rates of LV systolic dysfunction, diastolic dysfunction, and heart failure.

TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00921960.

Perceptions of the common good in planning

There has been plenty of debate in the academic literature about the nature of the common good or public interest in planning. There is a recognition that the idea is one that is extremely difficult to isolate in practical terms; nevertheless, scholars insist that the idea ‘…remains the pivot around which debates about the nature of planning and its purposes turn’ (Campbell & Marshall, 2002, 163–64). At the point of first principles, these debates have broached political theories of the state and even philosophies of science that inform critiques of rationality, social justice and power. In the planning arena specifically, much of the scholarship has tended to focus on theorising the move from a rational comprehensive planning system in the 1960s and 1970s, to one that is now dominated by deliberative democracy in the form of collaborative planning. In theoretical terms, this debate has been framed by a movement from what are perceived as objective and elitist notions of planning practice and decision-making to ones that are considered (by some) to be ‘inter-subjective’ and non-elitist. Yet despite significant conceptual debate, only a small number of empirical studies have tackled the issue by investigating notions of the common good from the perspective of planning practitioners. What do practitioners understand by the idea of the common good in planning? Do they actively consider it when making planning decisions? Do governance/institutional barriers exist to pursuing the common good in planning? In this paper, these sorts of questions are addressed using the case of Ireland. The methodology consists of a series of semi-structured qualitative interviews with 20 urban planners working across four planning authorities within the Greater Dublin Area, Ireland. The findings show that the most frequently cited definition of the common good is balancing different competing interests and avoiding/minimising the negative effects of development. The results show that practitioner views of the common good are far removed from the lofty ideals of planning theory and reflect the ideological shift of planners within an institution that has been heavily neoliberalised since the 1970s.

Informal strategies of power in the local planning system

Existing studies that question the role of planning as a state institution, whose interests it serves together with those disputing the merits of collaborative planning are all essentially concerned with the broader issue of power in society. Although there have been various attempts to highlight the distorting effects of power, the research emphasis to date has been focused on the operation of power within the formal structures that constitute the planning system. As a result, relatively little attention has been attributed to the informal strategies or tactics that can be utilised by powerful actors to further their own interests. This article seeks to address this gap by identifying the informal strategies used by the holders of power to bypass the formal structures of the planning system and highlight how these procedures are to a large extent systematic and (almost) institutionalised in a shadow planning system. The methodology consists of a series of semi-structured qualitative interviews with 20 urban planners working across four planning authorities within the Greater Dublin Area, Ireland. Empirical findings are offered that highlight the importance of economic power in the emergence of what essentially constitutes a shadow planning system. More broadly, the findings suggest that much more cognisance of the structural relations that govern how power is distributed in society is required and that ‘light touch’ approaches that focus exclusively on participation and deliberation need to be replaced with more radical solutions that look towards the redistribution of economic power between stakeholders.

Providing a ‘whole-of-family’ approach to care: family-focused practices in mental health services

Introduction: Family members including children are all impacted by a family member’s mental illness. Although mental health services are increasingly encouraged to engage in family-focused practice, this is not a well-understood concept or practice in mental health care. Methods: An integrative review using systematic methods was conducted with international literature, with the aim of identifying concepts and practices of family-focused practice in child and youth and adult mental health services. Results: Findings from 40 peer-reviewed literature identified a range of understandings and applications of family-focused practice, including who comprises the ‘family’, whether the focus is family of origin or family of procreation or choice, and whether the context of practice is child and youth or adult. ‘Family’ as defined by its members forms the foundation for practice that aims to provide a whole-of-family approach to care. Six core practices comprise a family focus to care: assessment; psychoeducation; family care planning and goal-setting; liaison between families and services; instrumental, emotional and social support; and a coordinated system of care between families and services. Conclusion: By incorporating key principles and the core family-focused practices into their care delivery, clinicians can facilitate a whole-of-family approach to care and strengthen family members’ wellbeing and resilience, and their individual and collective health outcomes.

Pregnancy Planning and Diabetes:A Qualitative Exploration of Women's Attitudes Toward Preconception Care

Introduction: Seeking preconception care is recognized as an important health behavior for women with preexisting diabetes. Yet many women with diabetes do not seek care or advice until after they are pregnant, and many enter pregnancy with suboptimal glycemic control. This study explored the attitudes about pregnancy and preconception care seeking in a group of nonpregnant women with type 1 diabetes mellitus. Methods: In-depth semistructured interviews were completed with 14 nonpregnant women with type 1 diabetes. Results: Analysis of the interview data revealed 4 main themes: 1) the emotional complexity of childbearing decisions, 2) preferences for information related to pregnancy, 3) the importance of being known by your health professional, and 4) frustrations with the medical model of care. Discussion: These findings raise questions about how preconception care should be provided to women with diabetes and highlight the pivotal importance of supportive, familiar relationships between health professionals and women with diabetes in the provision of individualized care and advice. By improving the quality of relationships and communication between health care providers and patients, we will be better able to provide care and advice that is perceived as relevant to the individual, whatever her stage of family planning. © 2012 by the American College of Nurse-Midwives.

Uses of Agent-Based Modeling for Health Communication: the TELL ME Case Study

Government communication is an important management tool during a public health crisis, but understanding its impact is difficult. Strategies may be adjusted in reaction to developments on the ground and it is challenging to evaluate the impact of communication separately from other crisis management activities. Agent-based modeling is a well-established research tool in social science to respond to similar challenges. However, there have been few such models in public health. We use the example of the TELL ME agent-based model to consider ways in which a non-predictive policy model can assist policy makers. This model concerns individuals' protective behaviors in response to an epidemic, and the communication that influences such behavior. Drawing on findings from stakeholder workshops and the results of the model itself, we suggest such a model can be useful: (i) as a teaching tool, (ii) to test theory, and (iii) to inform data collection. We also plot a path for development of similar models that could assist with communication planning for epidemics.

Planning for the Unseen and Unheard: the child with ASD

“Children are a kind of indicator species.
If we can build a successful city for children,
we will have a successful city for all people.”

Enrique Peñalosa (former mayor of Bogotá)

Should society be judged by how they treat their weakest members, the concept of the Child Friendly City offers more than ample scope for critiquing the genuine health and inclusivity of our urban environments. If we accept childhood as a crucial human development phase that demands inclusive and welcoming places for play, exploration and growth, many cities today are becoming increasingly barren habitats, arguably full of nothing but empty childhoods. (Raven-Ellison 2015) With children today less able to roam and explore our streets than those of yesteryear, (Bird 2007) the situation is now developing where our young are becoming increasingly socially and spatially excluded from our supposedly shared Built Environment. That progressively restrictive urban realm is particularly pronounced for those with Autism Spectrum Disorder, for whom our cities can be disorientating, difficult and even frightening places.

As a profession we have a responsibility to provide inclusive built environments that do not preclude the presence of the most vulnerable in society, among them those with ASD. Accordingly this paper seeks to introduce emerging research into the current challenges facing these young urban stakeholders before discussing how planning processes and design interventions might make our cities more accessible to those with ASD.

References:

Bird, W. (2007) Natural Thinking, Sandy, Bedfordshire: RSPB.

Raven-Ellison, D. (2015) “London’s Empty Childhoods” in London Essays – Green Spaces, Issue 3 – found at: http://essays.centreforlondon.org/issues/green/londons-empty-childhoods/ accessed 9th May 2016.

Implications of coping strategies and community cohesion for mental health in Colombia

In the face of mass human rights violations and constant threats to security, there is growing recognition of the resilience of people and communities. This paper builds on such work by investigating the effects of individual coping strategies, perceived community cohesion, and their interaction on mental health symptoms in Colombia. The study was conducted five years after the mass demobilisation of the former paramilitaries and takes an exploratory quantitative approach to identify two distinct forms of coping approaches among participants living in the Caribbean coast of Colombia. A constructive coping approach included active engagement, planning behaviours, emotional support, acceptance and positive reframing of daily stressors. A destructive coping approach in this study entailed denial of problems, substance use and behavioural disengagement from day-to-day stress. In addition, the strength of perceived community cohesion, or how close-knit and effective the individuals feel about the community in which they live, was examined. Structural equation modelling revealed that a constructive coping approach was significantly related to lower depression, while a destructive coping approach predicted more symptoms of depression. Although there was not a significant direct effect of perceived community cohesion on mental health outcomes, it did enhance the effect of constructive coping strategies at the trend level. That is, individuals who used constructive coping strategies and perceived their communities to be more cohesive, reported fewer depression symptoms than those who lived in less cohesive settings. Implications for promoting constructive coping strategies, as well as fostering cohesion in the community, are discussed.