Modelling the effectiveness of grass buffer strips in managing muddy floods under a changing climate

Muddy floods occur when rainfall generates runoff on agricultural land, detaching and transporting sediment into the surrounding natural and built environment. In the Belgian Loess Belt, muddy floods occur regularly and lead to considerable economic costs associated with damage to property and infrastructure. Mitigation measures designed to manage the problem have been tested in a pilot area within Flanders and were found to be cost-effective within three years. This study assesses whether these mitigation measures will remain effective under a changing climate. To test this, the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model was used to examine muddy flooding diagnostics (precipitation, runoff, soil loss and sediment yield) for a case study hillslope in Flanders where grass buffer strips are currently used as a mitigation measure. The model was run for present day conditions and then under 33 future site-specific climate scenarios. These future scenarios were generated from three earth system models driven by four representative concentration pathways and downscaled using quantile mapping and the weather generator CLIGEN. Results reveal that under the majority of future scenarios, muddy flooding diagnostics are projected to increase, mostly as a consequence of large scale precipitation events rather than mean changes. The magnitude of muddy flood events for a given return period is also generally projected to increase. These findings indicate that present day mitigation measures may have a reduced capacity to manage muddy flooding given the changes imposed by a warming climate with an enhanced hydrological cycle. Revisions to the design of existing mitigation measures within existing policy frameworks are considered the most effective way to account for the impacts of climate change in future mitigation planning. 

Extreme wet conditions coincident with Bronze Age abandonment of upland areas in Britain

Abandonment of farming systems on upland areas in southwest Britain during the Late Bronze Age – some 3000 years ago – is widely considered a ‘classic’ demonstration of the impact of deteriorating climate on the vulnerability of populations in such marginal environments. Here we test the hypothesis
that climate change drove the abandonment of upland areas by developing new chronologies for humanactivity on upland areas during the Bronze Age across southwest Britain (Dartmoor, Exmoor and Bodmin Moor). We find Bronze Age activity in these areas spanned 3900–2950 calendar years ago with abandonment by 2900 calendar years ago. Holocene Irish bog and lake oak tree populations provide evidence of major shifts in hydroclimate across western Britain and Ireland, coincident with ice rafted debris layers recognized in North Atlantic marine sediments, indicating significant changes in the latitude and intensity of zonal atmospheric circulation across the region. We observe abandonment of
upland areas in southwest Britain coinciding with a sustained period of extreme wet conditions that commenced 3100 calendar years ago. Our results are consistent with the view that climate change increased the vulnerability of these early farming communities and led to a less intensive use of such marginal environments across Britain.

Stone temperature and moisture variability under temperate environmental conditions: implications for sandstone weathering

Temperature and moisture conditions are key drivers of stone weathering processes in both natural and built environments. Given their importance in the breakdown of stone, a detailed understanding of their temporal and spatial variability is central to understanding present-day weathering behaviour and for predicting how climate change may influence the nature and rates of future stone decay.
Subsurface temperature and moisture data are reported from quarry fresh Peakmoor Sandstone samples exposed during summer (June–July) and late autumn / early winter (October–December) in a mid-latitude, temperate maritime environment. These data demonstrate that the subsurface thermal response of sandstone comprises numerous short-term (minutes), low magnitude fluctuations superimposed upon larger-scale diurnal heating and cooling cycles with distinct aspect-related differences. The short-term fluctuations create conditions in the outer 5–10 mm of stone that are much more ‘energetic’ in comparison to the more subdued thermal cycling that occurs deeper within the sandstone samples.
Data show that moisture dynamics are equally complex with a near-surface region (5–10 mm) in which frequent moisture cycling takes place and this, combined with the thermal dynamism exhibited by the same region may have significant implications for the nature and rate of weathering activity. Data indicate that moisture input from rainfall, particularly when it is wind-driven, can travel deep into the stone where it can prolong the time of wetness. This most often occurs during wetter winter months when moisture input is high and evaporative loss is low but can happen at any time during the year when the hydraulic connection between near-surface and deeper regions of the stone is disrupted with subsequent loss of moisture from depth slowing as it becomes reliant on vapour diffusion alone.
These data illustrate the complexity of temperature and moisture conditions in sandstone exposed to the ‘moderate’ conditions of a temperate maritime environment. They highlight differences in thermal and moisture cycling between near-surface (5–10 mm) and deeper regions within the stone and contribute towards a better understanding of the development of structural and mineralogical heterogeneity between the stone surface and substrate.