An ultra-short-term wind power prediction method using “offline classification and optimization, online model matching” based on time series features

The applicability of ultra-short-term wind power prediction (USTWPP) models is reviewed. The USTWPP method proposed extracts featrues from historical data of wind power time series (WPTS), and classifies every short WPTS into one of several different subsets well defined by stationary patterns. All the WPTS that cannot match any one of the stationary patterns are sorted into the subset of nonstationary pattern. Every above WPTS subset needs a USTWPP model specially optimized for it offline. For on-line application, the pattern of the last short WPTS is recognized, then the corresponding prediction model is called for USTWPP. The validity of the proposed method is verified by simulations.

Real-Time Multiple Event Detection and Classification Using Moving Window PCA

This paper proposes a method for the detection and classification of multiple events in an electrical power system in real-time, namely; islanding, high frequency events (loss of load) and low frequency events (loss of generation). This method is based on principal component analysis of frequency measurements and employs a moving window approach to combat the time-varying nature of power systems, thereby increasing overall situational awareness of the power system. Numerical case studies using both real data, collected from the UK power system, and simulated case studies, constructed using DigSilent PowerFactory, for islanding events, as well as both loss of load and generation dip events, are used to demonstrate the reliability of the proposed method.

Interobserver agreement of the Gross Motor Function Classification System in an ambulant population of children with cerebral palsy

Gross Motor Function Classification System (GMFCS) level was reported by three independent assessors in a population of children with cerebral palsy (CP) aged between 4 and 18 years (n=184; 112 males, 72 females; mean age 10y 10mo [SD 3y 7mo]). A software algorithm also provided a computed GMFCS level from a regional CP registry. Participants had clinical diagnoses of unilateral (n=94) and bilateral (n=84) spastic CP, ataxia (n=4), dyskinesia (n=1), and hypotonia (n=1), and could walk independently with or without the use of an aid (GMFCS Levels I-IV). Research physiotherapist (n=184) and parent/guardian data (n=178) were collected in a research environment. Data from the child's community physiotherapist (n=143) were obtained by postal questionnaire. Results, using the kappa statistic with linear weighting (?1w), showed good agreement between the parent/guardian and research physiotherapist (?1w=0.75) with more moderate levels of agreement between the clinical physiotherapist and researcher (?1w=0.64) and the clinical physiotherapist and parent/guardian (?1w=0.57). Agreement was consistently better for older children (>2y). This study has shown that agreement with parent report increases with therapists'experience of the GMFCS and knowledge of the child at the time of grading. Substantial agreement between a computed GMFCS and an experienced therapist (?1w=0.74) also demonstrates the potential for extrapolation of GMFCS rating from an existing CP registry, providing the latter has sufficient data on locomotor ability.

Support vector machine classification for large data sets via minimum enclosing ball clustering

Support vector machine (SVM) is a powerful technique for data classification. Despite of its good theoretic foundations and high classification accuracy, normal SVM is not suitable for classification of large data sets, because the training complexity of SVM is highly dependent on the size of data set. This paper presents a novel SVM classification approach for large data sets by using minimum enclosing ball clustering. After the training data are partitioned by the proposed clustering method, the centers of the clusters are used for the first time SVM classification. Then we use the clusters whose centers are support vectors or those clusters which have different classes to perform the second time SVM classification. In this stage most data are removed. Several experimental results show that the approach proposed in this paper has good classification accuracy compared with classic SVM while the training is significantly faster than several other SVM classifiers.

Host-based P2P flow identification and use in real-time

Data identification is a key task for any Internet Service Provider (ISP) or network administrator. As port fluctuation and encryption become more common in P2P traffic wishing to avoid identification, new strategies must be developed to detect and classify such flows. This paper introduces a new method of separating P2P and standard web traffic that can be applied as part of a data mining process, based on the activity of the hosts on the network. Unlike other research, our method is aimed at classifying individual flows rather than just identifying P2P hosts or ports. Heuristics are analysed and a classification system proposed. The accuracy of the system is then tested using real network traffic from a core internet router showing over 99% accuracy in some cases. We expand on this proposed strategy to investigate its application to real-time, early classification problems. New proposals are made and the results of real-time experiments compared to those obtained in the data mining research. To the best of our knowledge this is the first research to use host based flow identification to determine a flows application within the early stages of the connection.

Probabilistic classification of acute myocardial infarction from multiple cardiac markers

Logistic regression and Gaussian mixture model (GMM) classifiers have been trained to estimate the probability of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in patients based upon the concentrations of a panel of cardiac markers. The panel consists of two new markers, fatty acid binding protein (FABP) and glycogen phosphorylase BB (GPBB), in addition to the traditional cardiac troponin I (cTnI), creatine kinase MB (CKMB) and myoglobin. The effect of using principal component analysis (PCA) and Fisher discriminant analysis (FDA) to preprocess the marker concentrations was also investigated. The need for classifiers to give an accurate estimate of the probability of AMI is argued and three categories of performance measure are described, namely discriminatory ability, sharpness, and reliability. Numerical performance measures for each category are given and applied. The optimum classifier, based solely upon the samples take on admission, was the logistic regression classifier using FDA preprocessing. This gave an accuracy of 0.85 (95% confidence interval: 0.78-0.91) and a normalised Brier score of 0.89. When samples at both admission and a further time, 1-6 h later, were included, the performance increased significantly, showing that logistic regression classifiers can indeed use the information from the five cardiac markers to accurately and reliably estimate the probability AMI. © Springer-Verlag London Limited 2008.

Discrete Conditional Phase-type model (DC_Ph) for patient waiting time with a logistic regression component to predict patient admission to hospital

Discrete Conditional Phase-type (DC-Ph) models are a family of models which represent skewed survival data conditioned on specific inter-related discrete variables. The survival data is modeled using a Coxian phase-type distribution which is associated with the inter-related variables using a range of possible data mining approaches such as Bayesian networks (BNs), the Naïve Bayes Classification method and classification regression trees. This paper utilizes the Discrete Conditional Phase-type model (DC-Ph) to explore the modeling of patient waiting times in an Accident and Emergency Department of a UK hospital. The resulting DC-Ph model takes on the form of the Coxian phase-type distribution conditioned on the outcome of a logistic regression model.

Gender Classification via Lips: Static and Dynamic Features

Automatic gender classification has many security and commercial applications. Various modalities have been investigated for gender classification with face-based classification being the most popular. In some real-world scenarios the face may be partially occluded. In these circumstances a classification based on individual parts of the face known as local features must be adopted. We investigate gender classification using lip movements. We show for the first time that important gender specific information can be obtained from the way in which a person moves their lips during speech. Furthermore our study indicates that the lip dynamics during speech provide greater gender discriminative information than simply lip appearance. We also show that the lip dynamics and appearance contain complementary gender information such that a model which captures both traits gives the highest overall classification result. We use Discrete Cosine Transform based features and Gaussian Mixture Modelling to model lip appearance and dynamics and employ the XM2VTS database for our experiments. Our experiments show that a model which captures lip dynamics along with appearance can improve gender classification rates by between 16-21% compared to models of only lip appearance.

An Event Driven Fusion Approach for Enjoyment Recognition in Real-time

Social signals and interpretation of carried information is of high importance in Human Computer Interaction. Often used for affect recognition, the cues within these signals are displayed in various modalities. Fusion of multi-modal signals is a natural and interesting way to improve automatic classification of emotions transported in social signals. Throughout most present studies, uni-modal affect recognition as well as multi-modal fusion, decisions are forced for fixed annotation segments across all modalities. In this paper, we investigate the less prevalent approach of event driven fusion, which indirectly accumulates asynchronous events in all modalities for final predictions. We present a fusion approach, handling short-timed events in a vector space, which is of special interest for real-time applications. We compare results of segmentation based uni-modal classification and fusion schemes to the event driven fusion approach. The evaluation is carried out via detection of enjoyment-episodes within the audiovisual Belfast Story-Telling Corpus.

Kernelized structural classification for 3D dogs body parts detection

Despite pattern recognition methods for human behavioral analysis has flourished in the last decade, animal behavioral analysis has been almost neglected. Those few approaches are mostly focused on preserving livestock economic value while attention on the welfare of companion animals, like dogs, is now emerging as a social need. In this work, following the analogy with human behavior recognition, we propose a system for recognizing body parts of dogs kept in pens. We decide to adopt both 2D and 3D features in order to obtain a rich description of the dog model. Images are acquired using the Microsoft Kinect to capture the depth map images of the dog. Upon depth maps a Structural Support Vector Machine (SSVM) is employed to identify the body parts using both 3D features and 2D images. The proposal relies on a kernelized discriminative structural classificator specifically tailored for dogs independently from the size and breed. The classification is performed in an online fashion using the LaRank optimization technique to obtaining real time performances. Promising results have emerged during the experimental evaluation carried out at a dog shelter, managed by IZSAM, in Teramo, Italy.

Geochronological database and classification system for age uncertainties in Neotropical pollen records.

The newly updated inventory of palaeoecological research in Latin America offers an important overview of sites available for multi-proxy and multi-site purposes. From the collected literature supporting this inventory, we collected all available age model metadata to create a chronological database of 5116 control points (e.g. 14C, tephra, fission track, OSL, 210Pb) from 1097 pollen records. Based on this literature review, we present a summary of chronological dating and reporting in the Neotropics. Difficulties and recommendations for chronology reporting are discussed. Furthermore, for 234 pollen records in northwest South America, a classification system for age uncertainties is implemented based on chronologies generated with updated calibration curves. With these outcomes age models are produced for those sites without an existing chronology, alternative age models are provided for researchers interested in comparing the effects of different calibration curves and age–depth modelling software, and the importance of uncertainty assessments of chronologies is highlighted. Sample resolution and temporal uncertainty of ages are discussed for different time windows, focusing on events relevant for research on centennial- to millennial-scale climate variability. All age models and developed R scripts are publicly available through figshare, including a manual to use the scripts.