Modelling the fate of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the North Sea system

The environmental fate of selected persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the North Sea system is modelled with a high resolution Fate and Transport Ocean Model (FANTOM) that uses hydrodynamic model output from the Hamburg Shelf Ocean Model (HAMSOM). Large amounts of POPs enter the North Sea from the surrounding highly populated, industrialised and agricultural countries. Major pathways to the North Sea are atmospheric deposition and river inputs, with additional contributions coming from bottom sediments and adjacent seas. The model domain covers the entire North Sea region, extending northward as far as the Shetland Islands, and includes adjacent basins such as the Skagerrak, Kattegat, and the westernmost part of the Baltic Sea. Model resolution (for both models) is 1.5’ latitude x 2.5’ longitude (approximately 3 km horizontal resolution) with 30 vertical levels. The POP model also has 20 sediment layers. Important model processes controlling the fate of POPs in the North Sea system are discussed. Results focus on Lindane gamma- HCH or gamma-hexachlorocyclohexane) and PCB 153.

The effects of global climate change on the cycling and processes of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the North Sea

The fate and cycling of two selected legacy persistent organic pollutants (POPs), PCB 153 and gamma-HCH, in the North Sea in the 21st century have been modelled with combined hydrodynamic and fate and transport ocean models
(HAMSOM and FANTOM, respectively). To investigate the impact of climate variability on POPs in the North Sea in the 21st century, future scenario model runs for three 10-year periods to the year 2100 using plausible levels of both in
situ concentrations and atmospheric, river and open boundary inputs are performed. This slice mode under a moderate scenario (A1B) is sufficient to provide a basis for further analysis. For the HAMSOM and atmospheric forcing, results of the IPCC A1B (SRES) 21st century scenario are utilized, where surface forcing is provided by the REMO downscaling of the ECHAM5 global atmospheric model, and open boundary conditions are provided by the MPIOM global ocean model.
Dry gas deposition and volatilization of gamma-HCH increase in the future relative to the present by up to 20% (in the spring and summer months for deposition and in summer for volatilization). In the water column, total mass of
gamma-HCH and PCB 153 remain fairly steady in all three runs. In sediment,
gamma-HCH increases in the future runs, relative to the present, while PCB 153 in sediment decreases exponentially in all three runs, but even faster in the future, due to the increased number of storms, increased duration of gale wind conditions and increased water and air temperatures, all of which are the result of climate change. Annual net sinks exceed sources at the ends of all periods.
Overall, the model results indicate that the climate change scenarios considered here generally have a negligible influence on the simulated fate and transport of the two POPs in the North Sea, although the increased number and magnitude of storms in the 21st century will result in POP resuspension and ensuing revolatilization events. Trends in emissions from primary and secondary sources will remain the key driver of levels of these contaminants over time.

Modelling the cycling of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the North Sea system: Fluxes, loading, seasonality, trends

The fate and cycling of two selected POPs is investigated for the North Sea system with an improved version of a fate and transport ocean model (FANTOM). The model uses atmospheric data from the EMEP MSC East POP model (Gusev et al., 2009), giving reasonable concentrations and seasonal distributions for the entire region, as opposed to the three observation stations that Ilyina et al. (2006) were limited to. Other model improvements include changes in the calculation of POP exchange between the water column and sediment.

We chose to simulate the fate of two POPs with very different properties, ?-HCH and PCB 153. Since the fate and cycling of POPs are strongly affected by hydrodynamic processes, a high resolution version of the Hamburg Shelf Ocean Model (HAMSOM) was developed and utilised. Simulations were made for the period 1996–2005. Both models were validated by comparing results with available data, which showed that the simulations were of very satisfactory quality.

Model results show that the North Sea is a net sink for ?-HCH and a net source to the atmosphere of PCB 153. Total masses of ?-HCH and PCB 153 in 2005 are reduced to 30% and 50%, respectively, of 1996 values.

Storms resuspending bottom sediments into the water column mobilise POPs into the atmosphere and have the potential to deliver substantial loads of these POPs into Europe.

Air-Sea Exchange of Legacy POPs in the North Sea Based on Results of Fate and Transport, and Shelf-Sea Hydrodynamic Ocean Models

The air-sea exchange of two legacy persistent organic pollutants (POPs), γ-HCH and PCB 153, in the North Sea, is presented and discussed using results of regional fate and transport and shelf-sea hydrodynamic ocean models for the period 1996–2005. Air-sea exchange occurs through gas exchange (deposition and volatilization), wet deposition and dry deposition. Atmospheric concentrations are interpolated into the model domain from results of the EMEP MSC-East multi-compartmental model (Gusev et al, 2009). The North Sea is net depositional for γ-HCH, and is dominated by gas deposition with notable seasonal variability and a downward trend over the 10 year period. Volatilization rates of γ-HCH are generally a factor of 2–3 less than gas deposition in winter, spring and summer but greater in autumn when the North Sea is net volatilizational. A downward trend in fugacity ratios is found, since gas deposition is decreasing faster than volatilization. The North Sea is net volatilizational for PCB 153, with highest rates of volatilization to deposition found in the areas surrounding polluted British and continental river sources. Large quantities of PCB 153 entering through rivers lead to very high local rates of volatilization.

On sea level change in the North Sea influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation: local and remote steric effects

In this study, contributions of both local steric and remote baroclinic effects (i.e., steric variations external to the region of interest) to the inter-annual variability of winter sea level in the North Sea, with respect to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), for the period of 1953–2010 are investigated. On inter-annual time scales in this period, the NAO is significantly correlated to sea level variations in the North Sea only in the winter months (December–March), while its correlation to sea temperature over much of the North Sea is only significant in January and February. The discrepancy in sea level between observations and barotropic tide and surge models forced by tides and local atmospheric forcing, i.e., local atmospheric pressure effects and winds, in the present study are found to be consistent with previous studies. In the North Sea, local thermosteric effects caused by thermal expansion play a minor role on winter-mean NAO related sea level variability compared with atmospheric forcing. This is particularly true in the southeastern North Sea where water depths are mostly less than 25 m. Our calculations demonstrate that the discrepancy can be mostly explained by remote baroclinic effects, which appear as water mass exchanges on the continental shelf and are therefore only apparent in ocean bottom pressure. In the North Sea, NAO related sea level variations seem to be a hybrid of barotropic and baroclinic processes. Hence, they can only be adequately modelled with three-dimensional baroclinic ocean models that include contributions of baroclinic effects and large-scale atmospheric forcing external to the region of interest.

The occurrence and significance of triploidy in the liver fluke, Fasciola hepatica.

Karyotyping of Fasciola hepatica samples from Britain and Ireland has identified a triploid isolate which is effectively aspermic, rendering it necessarily asexually reproducing. Considering the extensive presence of asexually reproducing diploid and triploid Fasciola in Asia it is suggested that facultative gynogenesis is widespread in this parasite. This has important implications for the population genetics and evolution of Fasciola, especially in relation to the development and spread of drug resistance, and must be considered in the mathematical modelling of this process.

Visual functioning and quality of life in the subfoveal radiotherapy study (SFRADS): SFRADS report 2

Aims: To determine whether or not self reported visual functioning and quality of life in patients with choroidal neovascularisation caused by age related macular degeneration (AMD) is better in those treated with 12 Gy external beam radiotherapy in comparison with untreated subjects. Methods: A multicentre single masked randomised controlled trial of 12 Gy of external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) delivered as 6x2 Gy fractions to the macula of an affected eye versus observation. Patients with AMD, aged 60 years or over, in three UK hospital units, who had subfoveal CNV and a visual acuity equal to or better than 6/60 (logMAR 1.0). Methods: Data from 199 eligible participants who were randomly assigned to 12 Gy teletherapy or observation were available for analysis. Visual function assessment, ophthalmic examination, and fundus fluorescein angiography were undertaken at baseline and at 3, 6, 12, and 24 months after study entry. To assess patient centred outcomes, subjects were asked to complete the Daily Living Tasks Dependent on Vision (DLTV) and the SF-36 questionnaires at baseline, 6, 12, and 24 months after enrolment to the study. Cross sectional and longitudinal analyses were conducted using arm of study as grouping variable. Regression analysis was employed to adjust for the effect of baseline co-variates on outcome at 12 months and 24 months. Results: Both control and treated subjects had significant losses in visual functioning as seen by a progressive decline in mean scores in the four dimensions of the DLTV. There were no statistically significant differences between treatment and control subjects in any of dimensions of the DLTV at 12 months or 24 months after study entry. Regression analysis confirmed that treatment status had no effect on the change in DLTV dimensional scores. Conclusions: The small benefits noted in clinical measures of vision in treated eyes did not translate into better self reported visual functioning in patients who received treatment when compared with the control arm. These findings have implications for the design of future clinical trials and studies.