Risk-informed decision-making in the presence of epistemic uncertainty

An important issue in risk analysis is the distinction between epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. In this paper, the use of distinct representation formats for aleatory and epistemic uncertainties is advocated, the latter being modelled by sets of possible values. Modern uncertainty theories based on convex sets of probabilities are known to be instrumental for hybrid representations where aleatory and epistemic components of uncertainty remain distinct. Simple uncertainty representation techniques based on fuzzy intervals and p-boxes are used in practice. This paper outlines a risk analysis methodology from elicitation of knowledge about parameters to decision. It proposes an elicitation methodology where the chosen representation format depends on the nature and the amount of available information. Uncertainty propagation methods then blend Monte Carlo simulation and interval analysis techniques. Nevertheless, results provided by these techniques, often in terms of probability intervals, may be too complex to interpret for a decision-maker and we, therefore, propose to compute a unique indicator of the likelihood of risk, called confidence index. It explicitly accounts for the decisionmaker’s attitude in the face of ambiguity. This step takes place at the end of the risk analysis process, when no further collection of evidence is possible that might reduce the ambiguity due to epistemic uncertainty. This last feature stands in contrast with the Bayesian methodology, where epistemic uncertainties on input parameters are modelled by single subjective probabilities at the beginning of the risk analysis process.

Updating Credal Networks is Approximable in Polynomial Time

Credal networks relax the precise probability requirement of Bayesian networks, enabling a richer representation of uncertainty in the form of closed convex sets of probability measures. The increase in expressiveness comes at the expense of higher computational costs. In this paper, we present a new variable elimination algorithm for exactly computing posterior inferences in extensively specified credal networks, which is empirically shown to outperform a state-of-the-art algorithm. The algorithm is then turned into a provably good approximation scheme, that is, a procedure that for any input is guaranteed to return a solution not worse than the optimum by a given factor. Remarkably, we show that when the networks have bounded treewidth and bounded number of states per variable the approximation algorithm runs in time polynomial in the input size and in the inverse of the error factor, thus being the first known fully polynomial-time approximation scheme for inference in credal networks.

The basic principles of uncertain information fusion. An organised review of merging rules in different representation frameworks.

We propose and advocate basic principles for the fusion of incomplete or uncertain information items, that should apply regardless of the formalism adopted for representing pieces of information coming from several sources. This formalism can be based on sets, logic, partial orders, possibility theory, belief functions or imprecise probabilities. We propose a general notion of information item representing incomplete or uncertain information about the values of an entity of interest. It is supposed to rank such values in terms of relative plausibility, and explicitly point out impossible values. Basic issues affecting the results of the fusion process, such as relative information content and consistency of information items, as well as their mutual consistency, are discussed. For each representation setting, we present fusion rules that obey our principles, and compare them to postulates specific to the representation proposed in the past. In the crudest (Boolean) representation setting (using a set of possible values), we show that the understanding of the set in terms of most plausible values, or in terms of non-impossible ones matters for choosing a relevant fusion rule. Especially, in the latter case our principles justify the method of maximal consistent subsets, while the former is related to the fusion of logical bases. Then we consider several formal settings for incomplete or uncertain information items, where our postulates are instantiated: plausibility orderings, qualitative and quantitative possibility distributions, belief functions and convex sets of probabilities. The aim of this paper is to provide a unified picture of fusion rules across various uncertainty representation settings.

The level sets of the resolvent norm and convexity properties of Banach spaces

We construct a bounded linear operator on a separable, reflexive and strictly convex Banach space whose resolvent norm is constant in a neighbourhood of zero.

Conformations, vibrational frequencies and Raman intensities of short-chain fatty acid methyl esters using DFT with 6-31G(d) and Sadlej pVTZ basis sets

Density functional calculations, using B3LPY/6-31G(d) methods, have been used to investigate the conformations and vibrational (Raman) spectra of three short-chain fatty acid methyl esters (FAMEs) with the formula CnH2nO2 (n = 3-5). In all three FAMEs, the lowest energy conformer has a simple 'all-trans' structure but there are other conformers, with different torsions about the backbone, which lie reasonably close in energy to the global minimum. One result of this is that the solid samples we studied do not appear to consist entirely of the lowest energy conformer. Indeed, to account for the 'extra' bands that were observed in the Raman data but were not predicted for the all-trans conformer, it was necessary to add-in contributions from other conformers before a complete set of vibrational assignments could be made. Provided this was done, the agreement between experimental Raman frequencies and 6-31G(d) values (after scaling) was excellent, RSD = 12.6 cm(-1). However, the agreement between predicted and observed intensities was much less satisfactory. To confirm the validity of the approach followed by the 6-3 1 G(d) basis set, we used a larger basis set, Sadlej pVTZ, and found that these calculations gave accurate Raman intensities and simulated spectra (summed from two different conformers) that were in quantitative agreement with experiment. In addition, the unscaled Sadlej pVTZ, and the scaled 6-3 1 G(d) calculations gave the same vibrational mode assignments for all bands in the experimental data. This work provides the foundation for calculations on longer-chain FAMEs (which are closer to those found as triglycerides in edible fats and oils) because it shows that scaled 6-3 1 G(d) calculations give equally accurate frequency predictions, and the same vibrational mode assignments, as the much more CPU-expensive Sadlej pVTZ basis set calculations.