Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in Aircraft Operating Costs in Structural Design Optimization

The paper focuses on the development of an aircraft design optimization methodology that models uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in the tradeoff between manufacturing cost, structural requirements, andaircraft direct operating cost.Specifically,ratherthanonlylooking atmanufacturingcost, direct operatingcost is also consideredintermsof the impact of weight on fuel burn, in addition to the acquisition cost to be borne by the operator. Ultimately, there is a tradeoff between driving design according to minimal weight and driving it according to reduced manufacturing cost. Theanalysis of cost is facilitated withagenetic-causal cost-modeling methodology,andthe structural analysis is driven by numerical expressions of appropriate failure modes that use ESDU International reference data. However, a key contribution of the paper is to investigate the modeling of uncertainty and to perform a sensitivity analysis to investigate the robustness of the optimization methodology. Stochastic distributions are used to characterize manufacturing cost distributions, andMonteCarlo analysis is performed in modeling the impact of uncertainty on the cost modeling. The results are then used in a sensitivity analysis that incorporates the optimization methodology. In addition to investigating manufacturing cost variance, the sensitivity of the optimization to fuel burn cost and structural loading are also investigated. It is found that the consideration of manufacturing cost does make an impact and results in a different optimal design configuration from that delivered by the minimal-weight method. However, it was shown that at lower applied loads there is a threshold fuel burn cost at which the optimization process needs to reduce weight, and this threshold decreases with increasing load. The new optimal solution results in lower direct operating cost with a predicted savings of 640=m2 of fuselage skin over the life, relating to a rough order-of-magnitude direct operating cost savings of $500,000 for the fuselage alone of a small regional jet. Moreover, it was found through the uncertainty analysis that the principle was not sensitive to cost variance, although the margins do change.

Stress, coping and burn-out in nursing students

Aim: To explore the relationship between sources of stress and psychological burn-out and to consider the moderating and mediating role played sources of stress and different coping resources on burn-out.

Background: Most research exploring sources of stress and coping in nursing students construes stress as psychological distress. Little research has considered those sources of stress likely to enhance well-being and, by implication, learning.

Method: A questionnaire was administered to 171 final year nursing students. Questions were asked which measured sources of stress when rated as likely to contribute to distress (a hassle) and rated as likely to help one achieve (an uplift). Support, control, self-efficacy and coping style were also measured, along with their potential moderating and mediating effect on burn-out.

Findings: The sources of stress likely to lead to distress were more often predictors of wellbeing than sources of stress likely to lead to positive, eustress states. However, placement experience was an important source of stress likely to lead to eustress. Self-efficacy, dispositional control and support were other important predictors. Avoidance coping was the strongest predictor of burn-out and, even if used only occasionally, it can have an adverse effect on burn-out. Initiatives to promote support and self-efficacy are likely to have the more immediate benefits in enhancing student well-being.

Conclusion: Nurse educators need to consider how course experiences contribute not just to potential distress but to eustress. How educators interact with their students and how they give feedback offers important opportunities to promote self-efficacy and provide valuable support. Peer support is a critical coping resource and can be bolstered through induction and through learning and teaching initiatives. 

A generic tool for cost estimating in aircraft design

A methodology to estimate the cost implications of design decisions by integrating cost as a design parameter at an early design stage is presented. The model is developed on a hierarchical basis, the manufacturing cost of aircraft fuselage panels being analysed in this paper. The manufacturing cost modelling is original and relies on a genetic-causal method where the drivers of each element of cost are identified relative to the process capability. The cost model is then extended to life cycle costing by computing the Direct Operating Cost as a function of acquisition cost and fuel burn, and coupled with a semi-empirical numerical analysis using Engineering Sciences Data Unit reference data to model the structural integrity of the fuselage shell with regard to material failure and various modes of buckling. The main finding of the paper is that the traditional minimum weight condition is a dated and sub-optimal approach to airframe structural design.

A review of the selective reduction of NOx, with hydrocarbons under lean-burn conditions with non-zeolitic oxide and platinum group metal catalysts

Research on the selective reduction of NOx with hydrocarbons under lean-burn conditions using non-zeolitic oxides and platinum group metal (PGM) catalysts has been critically reviewed. Alumina and silver-promoted alumina catalysts have been described in detail with particular emphasis on an analysis of the various reaction mechanisms that have been put forward in the literature. The influence of the nature of the reducing agent, and the preparation and structure of the catalysts have also been discussed and rationalised for several other oxide systems. It is concluded for non-zeolitic oxides that species that are strongly adsorbed on the surface, such as nitrates/nitrites and acetates, could be key intermediates in the formation of various reduced and oxidised species of nitrogen, the further reaction of which leads eventually to the formation of molecular nitrogen. For the platinum group metal catalysts, the different mechanisms that have been proposed in the literature have been critically assessed. It is concluded that although there is indirect, mainly spectroscopic, evidence for various reaction intermediates on the catalyst surface, it is difficult to confirm that any of these are involved in a critical mechanistic step because of a lack of a direct quantitative correlation between infrared and kinetic measurements. A simple mechanism which involves the dissociation of NO on a reduced metal surface to give N(ads) and O(ads), with subsequent desorption of N-2 and N2O and removal of O(ads) by the reductant can explain many of the results with the platinum group metal catalysts, although an additional contribution from organo-nitro-type species may contribute to the overall NOx reduction activity with these catalysts.

An investigation of catalysts for the on board synthesis of NH3. A possible route to low temperature NOx reduction for lean-burn engines

Platinum group metal catalysts have been investigated for the formation of NH3 from NO + H-2 at low temperatures in the absence and presence of CO. Although CO inhibits the formation of NH3, substantial amounts are still observed with a Pt catalyst. By combining Pt with a support (ceria-zirconia) that has low temperature NOx storage characteristics it has been shown in transient experiments that NH3 can be formed and stored in situ under rich conditions, and may then be used to reduce NOx under lean burn conditions.

Response of surface horizons in an oak forest to prescribed burning

The reduction of forest floor ground cover and litter layers by prescribed fires may alter the morphology (field and micro) and physical properties of surface horizons. This study determined long-term (35 yr) changes in surface horizon bulk density, organic matter concentration and content, and morphology in response to periodic (5 yr) and annual (1 yr) prescribed fires. Soils were fine-silty, siliceous, thermic Glossic Fragiuldults, supporting mixed oak vegetation in middle Tennessee. Upper mineral soils (0- to 2-cm and 0- to 7.6-cm depths) were sampled and detailed field descriptions made. Periodic and control plots had a thin layer of Oi, Oe, and Oa horizons 5 yr after the 1993 burn, whereas on annual burn plots a 1- to 2-cm charred layer was present. Significant reductions in organic matter concentration and mean thickness of the A horizon were found from burning (A horizons thicknesses were 6.4, 4.6, and 2.9 cm in control, periodic, and annual plots, respectively). Periodic burns did not significantly alter the organic matter and bulk density of the upper 7.6 cm of mineral soil; however, annual burns did result in significantly higher bulk densities (1.01, 1.07, and 1.29 Mg m-3 in control, periodic, and annual plots, respectively) and lower organic matter concentrations and contents. Microscopic investigations confirmed that compaction was increased from annual burning. Thin sections also revealed that the granular structure of the A horizons in control and periodic plots resulted from bioterbation of macro and mesofauna, fungi, and roots. Long-term annual burning greatly affected surface soil properties, whereas periodic burning on a 5-yr cycle had only limited effects.

The last meal of the Late Ordovician mollusc ‘Helminthochiton’ thraivensis Reed, 1911, from the Lady Burn Starfish Beds, southwest Scotland.

An exceptional specimen of the Late Ordovician mollusc ‘Helminthochiton’ thraivensis Reed, from the Katian of the Lady Burn Starfish Beds, southwest Scotland, preserves gut contents that include nine pelmatozoan ossicles. These are interpreted as including two nodal and five intermodal columnals, and two radice ossicles from the attachment structure. The stem was cyclocyclic and heteromorphic, possibly N212. Radice ossicles were wider than the height of nodals, so radice scars must have encroached onto the latera of adjacent pluricolumnals. These features were compared with the 26 known pelmatozoan taxa from the Lady Burn Starfish Beds. Paracrinoids (one species) and glyptocystitid rhombiferans (six species) were discounted as prey because of their cemented attachment, and incorrect columnal morphology and lack of attachment, respectively. Of 19 species of crinoids, eight are discounted in which the column is pentagonal, tetragonal or unknown. Of the remaining eleven species, only the monobathrid camerate Macrostylocrinus cirrifer Ramsbottom satisfies all criteria for identification of the prey, including heteromorphy and radice scars encroaching adjacent internodals.

Effect of Aspirin or Resistant Starch on Colorectal Neoplasia in the Lynch Syndrome

Background: Observational and epidemiologic data indicate that the use of aspirin reduces the risk of colorectal neoplasia; however, the effects of aspirin in the Lynch syndrome (hereditary nonpolyposis colon cancer) are not known. Resistant starch has been associated with an antineoplastic effect on the colon.

The use of short time-on-stream in situ spectroscopic transient kinetic isotope techniques to investigate the mechanism of hydrocarbon selective catalytic reduction (HC-SCR) of NOx at low temperatures

The problem of differentiating between active and spectator species that have similar infrared spectra has been addressed by developing short time-on-stream in situ spectroscopic transient isotope experimental techniques (STOS-SSITKA). The techniques have been used to investigate the reaction mechanism for the reduction of nitrogen oxides (NOx) by hydrocarbons under lean-burn (excess oxygen) conditions on a silver catalyst. Although a nitrate-type species tracks the formation of isotopically labeled dinitrogen, the results show that this is misleading because a nitrate-type species has the same response to an isotopic switch even under conditions where no dinitrogen is produced. In the case of cyanide and isocyanate species, the results show that it is possible to differentiate between slowly reacting spectator isocyanate species, probably adsorbed on the oxide support, and reactive isocyanate species, possibly on or close to the active silver phase. The reactive isocyanate species responds to an isotope switch at a rate that matches that of the rate of formation of the main product, dinitrogen. It is concluded that these reactive isocyanates could potentially be involved in the reduction of NOx whereas there is no evidence to support the involvement of nitrate-type species that are observable by infrared spectroscopy.

The control of porosity at nano scale in resorcinol formaldehyde carbon aerogels

Organic aerogels were synthesized by sol–gel polymerization of resorcinol (R) with formaldehyde (F) catalyzed by sodium carbonate (C) followed by vacuum drying. The influence of the resorcinol/sodium carbonate ratio (R/C) on the porous structure of the resultant aerogels was investigated. The nitrogen adsorption–desorption measurements show that the aerogels possess a well developed porous structure and mesoporosity was found to increase with increasing the R/C ratio. Carbon aerogels were obtained by carbonization of RF aerogels. The carbonization temperature impacts the microstructure of the aerogels by pore transformations during carbonization probably due to the formation of micropores and shrinkage of the gel structure. The results showed that a temperature of 1073 Kis more effective in the development of the pore structure of the gel. Activated carbon aerogels were obtained from the CO2 activation of carbon aerogels. Activation results in an increase in the number of both micropores and mesopores, indicative of pore creation in the structure of the carbon. Activation at higher temperatures results in a higher degree of burn off and increases the pore volume and the surface area remarkably without change of the basic porous structure, pore size, and pore size distribution.

Autologous limbal transplantation in patients with unilateral corneal stem cell deficiency

Aim - To describe a surgical technique for autologous limbal stem cell transplantation and the outcome of a series of patients with unilateral stem cell deficiency. Methods - A report of six consecutive patients who underwent autologous limbal stem cell transplantation is presented. The primary diagnosis included alkali burn (n = 3), conjunctival intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) (n = 1), recurrent pterygium (n = 1), and contact lens induced keratopathy (n = 1). The autologous transplanted tissue consisted of peripheral cornea, limbus, and conjunctiva obtained from the contralateral eye. Three of the above patients underwent penetrating keratoplasty in association with autolimbal transplantation. A significant modification to established techniques was the close monitoring of conjunctival epithelial migration in the immediate postoperative period. If conjunctival epithelium threatened to migrate on to the corneal surface, it was mechanically removed at the slit lamp and prevented from crossing the limbus. This was required in three patients. Results - The mean follow up was 18.8 months. The outcome was satisfactory in all cases: a stable corneal surface was restored and there was a substantial improvement in vision and symptoms. One patient had a primary failure of the corneal allograft associated with glaucoma, and 6 months later developed a retinal detachment. No complications were noted in the donor eye with the exception of one patient who developed filamentary keratitis along the edge of the donor site. Conclusion - Autologous limbal transplantation with corneal, limbal, and conjunctival carriers was found to be useful for ocular surface reconstruction, over a mid-term follow up, in patients with unilateral stem cell deficiency. Close monitoring of the migration of conjunctival epithelium in the immediate postoperative period, and preventing it from crossing the limbus, ensured that the corneal surface was re-epithelialised exclusively from epithelial cells derived from the transplanted limbal tissue. This approach should improve the success of this procedure.

Allo-limbal transplantation in patients with limbal stem cell deficiency

Aim - To report the outcome of a series of patients with stem cell deficiency who underwent allo-limbal transplantation and to describe a technique for this procedure. Methods - Six consecutive patients underwent allo-limbal stem cell transplantation. The primary diagnosis included alkali burn (n = 2), trachoma (n = 1), chronic rosacea blepharitis and keratoconjunctivitis (n = 1), aniridia (n = 1), and Stevens-Johnson syndrome (n = 1). The limbal rim consisted of peripheral cornea and perilimbal sclera, FK-506 was used postoperatively for immunosuppression. Results - The length of follow up ranged from 3 to 24 months (mean follow up 11.8 (SD 9.3) months). The outcome was considered satisfactory in five of six cases. The corneal surface was completely epithelialised within 2 weeks, and there was a substantial improvement in vision and symptoms. One patient had recurrent epithelial defects related to eyelid abnormalities. No side effects associated with systemic immunosuppression were noted. Conclusion - Allo-limbal transplantation, with systemic immunosuppression with FK-506 is useful in reconstruction of the ocular surface with improvement in vision in patients with severe stem cell deficiency.

Staff training in autism: The one-eyed wo/man….

Having well-trained staff is key to ensuring good quality autism services, especially since people affected with autism generally tend to have higher support needs than other populations in terms of daily living as well as their mental and physical health. Poorly-trained staff can have detrimental effects on service provision and staff morale and can lead to staff burn-out as well as increased service user anxiety and stress. This paper reports on a survey with health, social care, and education staff who work within the statutory autism services sector in the UK that explored their knowledge and training with regards to autism. Interview data obtained from staff and service users offer qualitative illustrations of survey findings. Overall, the findings expose an acute lack of autism specific training that has detrimental impacts. At best this training was based on brief and very basic awareness raising rather than on in-depth understanding of issues related to autism or skills for evidence-based practice. Service users were concerned with the effects that lack of staff training had on the services they received. The paper concludes with a discussion of policy routes to achieving quality staff training based on international best practice. The focus is on improving the quality of life and mental health for services users and staff as well as making potentially significant cost-savings for governments.