Cost-effectiveness of natriuretic peptide-based screening and collaborative care: a report from the STOP-HF (St Vincent's Screening TO Prevent Heart Failure) study

AIMS: Prevention of cardiovascular disease and heart failure (HF) in a cost-effective manner is a public health goal. This work aims to assess the cost-effectiveness of the St Vincent's Screening TO Prevent Heart Failure (STOP-HF) intervention.

METHODS AND RESULTS: This is a substudy of 1054 participants with cardiovascular risk factors [median age 65.8 years, interquartile range (IQR) 57.8:72.4, with 4.3 years, IQR 3.4:5.2, follow-up]. Annual natriuretic peptide-based screening was performed, with collaborative cardiovascular care between specialist physicians and general practitioners provided to patients with BNP levels >50 pg/mL. Analysis of cost per case prevented and cost-effectiveness per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained was performed. The primary clinical endpoint of LV dysfunction (LVD) with or without HF was reduced in intervention patients [odds ratio (OR) 0.60; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.38-0.94; P = 0.026]. There were 157 deaths and/or emergency hospitalizations for major adverse cardiac events (MACE) in the control group vs. 102 in the intervention group (OR 0.68; 95% CI 0.49-0.93; P = 0.01). The cost per case of LVD/HF prevented was €9683 (sensitivity range -€843 to €20 210), whereas the cost per MACE prevented was €3471 (sensitivity range -€302 to €7245). Cardiovascular hospitalization savings offset increased outpatient and primary care costs. The cost per QALY gain was €1104 and the intervention has an 88% probability of being cost-effective at a willingness to pay threshold of €30 000.

CONCLUSION: Among patients with cardiovascular risk factors, natriuretic peptide-based screening and collaborative care reduced LVD, HF, and MACE, and has a high probability of being cost-effective.

TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT00921960.

Associates of an elevated natriuretic peptide level in stable heart failure patients:implications for targeted management

BACKGROUND: Persistently elevated natriuretic peptide (NP) levels in heart failure (HF) patients are associated with impaired prognosis. Recent work suggests that NP-guided therapy can improve outcome, but the mechanisms behind an elevated BNP remain unclear. Among the potential stimuli for NP in clinically stable patients are persistent occult fluid overload, wall stress, inflammation, fibrosis, and ischemia. The purpose of this study was to identify associates of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) in a stable HF population.

METHODS: In a prospective observational study of 179 stable HF patients, the association between BNP and markers of collagen metabolism, inflammation, and Doppler-echocardiographic parameters including left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), left atrial volume index (LAVI), and E/e prime (E/e') was measured.

RESULTS: Univariable associates of elevated BNP were age, LVEF, LAVI, E/e', creatinine, and markers of collagen turnover. In a multiple linear regression model, age, creatinine, and LVEF remained significant associates of BNP. E/e' and markers of collagen turnover had a persistent impact on BNP independent of these covariates.

CONCLUSION: Multiple variables are associated with persistently elevated BNP levels in stable HF patients. Clarification of the relative importance of NP stimuli may help refine NP-guided therapy, potentially improving outcome for this at-risk population.

Natriuretic peptide-based screening and collaborative care for heart failure:the STOP-HF randomized trial

IMPORTANCE: Prevention strategies for heart failure are needed.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the efficacy of a screening program using brain-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) and collaborative care in an at-risk population in reducing newly diagnosed heart failure and prevalence of significant left ventricular (LV) systolic and/or diastolic dysfunction.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: The St Vincent's Screening to Prevent Heart Failure Study, a parallel-group randomized trial involving 1374 participants with cardiovascular risk factors (mean age, 64.8 [SD, 10.2] years) recruited from 39 primary care practices in Ireland between January 2005 and December 2009 and followed up until December 2011 (mean follow-up, 4.2 [SD, 1.2] years).

INTERVENTION: Patients were randomly assigned to receive usual primary care (control condition; n=677) or screening with BNP testing (n=697). Intervention-group participants with BNP levels of 50 pg/mL or higher underwent echocardiography and collaborative care between their primary care physician and specialist cardiovascular service.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary end point was prevalence of asymptomatic LV dysfunction with or without newly diagnosed heart failure. Secondary end points included emergency hospitalization for arrhythmia, transient ischemic attack, stroke, myocardial infarction, peripheral or pulmonary thrombosis/embolus, or heart failure.

RESULTS: A total of 263 patients (41.6%) in the intervention group had at least 1 BNP reading of 50 pg/mL or higher. The intervention group underwent more cardiovascular investigations (control, 496 per 1000 patient-years vs intervention, 850 per 1000 patient-years; incidence rate ratio, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.61-1.83; P<.001) and received more renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system-based therapy at follow-up (control, 49.6%; intervention, 56.5%; P=.01). The primary end point of LV dysfunction with or without heart failure was met in 59 (8.7%) of 677 in the control group and 37 (5.3%) of 697 in the intervention group (odds ratio [OR], 0.55; 95% CI, 0.37-0.82; P = .003). Asymptomatic LV dysfunction was found in 45 (6.6%) of 677 control-group patients and 30 (4.3%) of 697 intervention-group patients (OR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.37-0.88; P = .01). Heart failure occurred in 14 (2.1%) of 677 control-group patients and 7 (1.0%) of 697 intervention-group patients (OR, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.20-1.20; P = .12). The incidence rates of emergency hospitalization for major cardiovascular events were 40.4 per 1000 patient-years in the control group vs 22.3 per 1000 patient-years in the intervention group (incidence rate ratio, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.45-0.81; P = .002).

CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE: Among patients at risk of heart failure, BNP-based screening and collaborative care reduced the combined rates of LV systolic dysfunction, diastolic dysfunction, and heart failure.

TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00921960.

Attenuation of monocyte chemotaxis--a novel anti-inflammatory mechanism of action for the cardio-protective hormone B-type natriuretic peptide

B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) is a prognostic and diagnostic marker for heart failure (HF). An anti-inflammatory, cardio-protective role for BNP was proposed. In cardiovascular diseases including pressure overload-induced HF, perivascular inflammation and cardiac fibrosis are, in part, mediated by monocyte chemoattractant protein (MCP)1-driven monocyte migration. We aimed to determine the role of BNP in monocyte motility to MCP1. A functional BNP receptor, natriuretic peptide receptor-A (NPRA) was identified in human monocytes. BNP treatment inhibited MCP1-induced THP1 (monocytic leukemia cells) and primary monocyte chemotaxis (70 and 50 %, respectively). BNP did not interfere with MCP1 receptor expression or with calcium. BNP inhibited activation of the cytoskeletal protein RhoA in MCP1-stimulated THP1 (70 %). Finally, BNP failed to inhibit MCP1-directed motility of monocytes from patients with hypertension (n = 10) and HF (n = 6) suggesting attenuation of this anti-inflammatory mechanism in chronic heart disease. We provide novel evidence for a direct role of BNP/NPRA in opposing human monocyte migration and support a role for BNP as a cardio-protective hormone up-regulated as part of an adaptive compensatory response to combat excess inflammation.

Long-term statin therapy in patients with systolic heart failure and normal cholesterol:effects on elevated serum markers of collagen turnover, inflammation, and B-type natriuretic peptide

BACKGROUND: The role of statin therapy in heart failure (HF) is unclear. The amino-terminal propeptide of procollagen type III (PIIINP) predicts outcome in HF, and yet there are conflicting reports of statin therapy effects on PIIINP.

OBJECTIVES: This study determined whether there was an increase in serum markers of inflammation, fibrosis (including PIIINP), and B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) in patients with systolic HF and normal total cholesterol and determined the effects of long-term treatment with atorvastatin on these markers.

METHODS: Fifty-six white patients with systolic HF and normal cholesterol levels (age 72 [13] years; 68% male; body mass index 27.0 [7.3] kg/m(2); ejection fraction 35 [13]%; 46% with history of smoking) were randomly allocated to atorvastatin treatment for 6 months, titrated to 40 mg/d (A group) or not (C group). Age- and/or sex-matched subjects without HF (N group) were also recruited. Biomarkers were measured at baseline (all groups) and 6 months (A and C groups).

RESULTS: Serum markers of collagen turnover, inflammation, and BNP were significantly elevated in HF patients compared with normal participants (all P < 0.05). There were correlations between these markers in HF patients but not in normal subjects. Atorvastatin treatment for 6 months caused a significant reduction in the following biomarkers compared with baseline: BNP, from median (interquartile range) 268 (190-441) pg/mL to 185 (144-344) pg/mL; high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), from 5.26 (1.95 -9.29) mg/L to 3.70 (2.34-6.81) mg/L; and PIIINP, from 4.65 (1.86) to 4.09 (1.25) pg/mL (all P < 0.05 baseline vs 6 months). Between-group differences were significant for PIIINP only (P = 0.027). There was a positive interaction between atorvastatin effects and baseline hs-CRP and PIIINP (P < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS: Long-term statin therapy reduced PIIINP in this small, selected HF population with elevated baseline levels. Further evaluation of statin therapy in the management of HF patients with elevated PIIINP is warranted.

Influence of diabetes on natriuretic peptide thresholds in screening for Stage B heart failure

CONTEXT: Natriuretic peptide (NP) has been shown to be an effective screening tool to identify patients with Stage B heart failure and to have clinical value in preventing heart failure progression. The impact of associated metabolic confounders on the screening utility of NP needs clarification.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of diabetes mellitus (DM) on NP screening for asymptomatic Stage B heart failure.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study population consisted of 1368 asymptomatic patients with cardiovascular risk factors recruited from general practice as part of the STOP-HF trial. B-type NP (BNP) was quantified at point-of-care.

RESULTS: BNP was found to be as accurate for detecting Stage B heart failure in DM patients compared to non-DM patients (AUC 0.75 [0.71,0.78] and 0.77 [0.72,0.82], respectively). However, different BNP thresholds are required to achieve the same level of diagnostic sensitivity in DM compared with non-DM patients. To achieve 80% sensitivity a difference of 5-ng/L lower is required for patients with DM.

CONCLUSION: Although a significantly different BNP threshold is detected for patients with DM, the BNP concentration difference is small and unlikely to warrant a clinically different diagnostic threshold.

Mechanical stretch up-regulates the B-type natriuretic peptide system in human cardiac fibroblasts:a possible defense against transforming growth factor-β mediated fibrosis

BACKGROUND: Mechanical overload of the heart is associated with excessive deposition of extracellular matrix proteins and the development of cardiac fibrosis. This can result in reduced ventricular compliance, diastolic dysfunction, and heart failure. Extracellular matrix synthesis is regulated primarily by cardiac fibroblasts, more specifically, the active myofibroblast. The influence of mechanical stretch on human cardiac fibroblasts' response to pro-fibrotic stimuli, such as transforming growth factor beta (TGFβ), is unknown as is the impact of stretch on B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) and natriuretic peptide receptor A (NPRA) expression. BNP, acting via NPRA, has been shown to play a role in modulation of cardiac fibrosis.

METHODS AND RESULTS: The effect of cyclical mechanical stretch on TGFβ induction of myofibroblast differentiation in primary human cardiac fibroblasts and whether differences in response to stretch were associated with changes in the natriuretic peptide system were investigated. Cyclical mechanical stretch attenuated the effectiveness of TGFβ in inducing myofibroblast differentiation. This finding was associated with a novel observation that mechanical stretch can increase BNP and NPRA expression in human cardiac fibroblasts, which could have important implications in modulating myocardial fibrosis. Exogenous BNP treatment further reduced the potency of TGFβ on mechanically stretched fibroblasts.

CONCLUSION: We postulate that stretch induced up-regulation of the natriuretic peptide system may contribute to the observed reduction in myofibroblast differentiation.

Can emerging biomarkers of myocardial remodelling identify asymptomatic hypertensive patients at risk for diastolic dysfunction and diastolic heart failure?

AIMS: Hypertension is one of the main drivers of the heart failure (HF) epidemic. The aims of this study were to profile fibro-inflammatory biomarkers across stages of the hypertensive heart disease (HHD) spectrum and to examine whether particular biochemical profiles in asymptomatic patients identify a higher risk of evolution to HF.

METHODS AND RESULTS: This was a cross-sectional observational study involving a population of 275 stable hypertensive patients divided into two different cohorts: Group 1, asymptomatic hypertension (AH) (n= 94); Group 2, HF with preserved ejection fraction (n= 181). Asymptomatic hypertension patients were further subdivided according to left atrial volume index ≥34 mL/m(2) (n= 30) and <34 mL/m(2) (n= 64). Study assays involved inflammatory markers [interleukin 6 (IL6), interleukin 8 (IL8), monocyte chemoattractant protein 1 (MCP1), and tumour necrosis factor α], collagen 1 and 3 metabolic markers [carboxy-terminal propeptide of collagen 1, amino-terminal propeptide of collagen 1, amino-terminal propeptide of collagen 3 (PIIINP), and carboxy-terminal telopeptide of collagen 1 (CITP)], extra-cellular matrix turnover markers [matrix metalloproteinase 2 (MMP2), matrix metalloproteinase 9 (MMP9), and tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase 1 (TIMP1)], and the brain natriuretic peptide. Data were adjusted for age, sex, systolic blood pressure, and creatinine. Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction was associated with an increased inflammatory signal (IL6, IL8, and MCP1), an increased fibrotic signal (PIIINP and CITP), and an increased matrix turnover signal (MMP2 and MMP9). Alterations in MMP and TIMP enzymes were found to be significant indicators of greater degrees of asymptomatic left ventricular diastolic dysfunction.

CONCLUSION: These data define varying fibro-inflammatory profiles throughout different stages of HHD. In particular, the observations on MMP9 and TIMP1 raise the possibility of earlier detection of those at risk of evolution to HF which may help focus effective preventative strategies.

Natural history of markers of collagen turnover in patients with early diastolic dysfunction and impact of eplerenone

OBJECTIVES: This study was designed to evaluate the impact of eplerenone on collagen turnover in preserved systolic function heart failure (HFPSF).

BACKGROUND: Despite growing interest in abnormal collagen metabolism as a feature of HFPSF with diastolic dysfunction, the natural history of markers of collagen turnover and the impact of selective aldosterone antagonism on this natural history remains unknown.

METHODS: We evaluated 44 patients with HFPSF, randomly assigned to control (n = 20) or eplerenone 25 mg daily (n = 24) for 6 months, increased to 50 mg daily from 6 to 12 months. Serum markers of collagen turnover and inflammation were analyzed at baseline and at 6 and 12 months and included pro-collagen type-I and -III aminoterminal peptides, matrix metalloproteinase type-2, interleukin-6 and -8, and tumor necrosis factor-alpha. Doppler-echocardiographic assessment of diastolic filling indexes and tissue Doppler analyses were also obtained.

RESULTS: The mean age of the patients was 80 +/- 7.8 years; 46% were male; 64% were receiving an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor, 34% an angiotensin-II receptor blocker, and 68% were receiving beta-blocker therapy. Pro-collagen type-III and -I aminoterminal peptides, matrix metalloproteinase type-2, interleukin-6 and -8, and tumor necrosis factor-alpha increased with time in the control group. Eplerenone treatment had no significant impact on any biomarker at 6 months but attenuated the increase in pro-collagen type-III aminoterminal peptide at 12 months (p = 0.006). Eplerenone therapy was associated with modest effects on diastolic function without any impact on clinical variables or brain natriuretic peptide.

CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates progressive increases in markers of collagen turnover and inflammation in HFPSF with diastolic dysfunction. Despite high background utilization of renin-angiotensin-aldosterone modulators, eplerenone therapy prevents a progressive increase in pro-collagen type-III aminoterminal peptide and may have a role in management of this disease. (The Effect of Eplerenone and Atorvastatin on Markers of Collagen Turnover in Diastolic Heart Failure; NCT00505336).

Late cardiac effects of chemotherapy in breast cancer survivors treated with adjuvant doxorubicin: 10-year follow-up

Doxorubicin (Dox), a mainstay of adjuvant breast cancer treatment, is associated with cardiac toxicity in the form of left ventricular dysfunction (LVD), LV diastolic dysfunction, or LV systolic dysfunction. Study objectives were to evaluate the prevalence of LVD in long-term breast cancer survivors treated with Dox and determine if brain-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) may help identify patients at risk for LVD. Patients who participated in prospective clinical trials of adjuvant Dox-based chemotherapy for breast cancer with a baseline left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction evaluation from 1999 to 2006 were retrospectively identified from the St Vincent's University Hospital database. Patients were invited to undergo transthoracic echocardiography, BNP analysis, and cardiovascular (CV) risk factor assessment. LVDD was defined as left atrial volume index >34 mL/m(2) and/or lateral wall E prime <10 m/s, and LVSD as LVEF <50 %. Of 212 patients identified, 154 participated, 19 patients had died (no cardiac deaths), and 39 declined. Mean age was 60.7 [55:67] years. A majority of the patients (128, 83 %) had low CV risk (0/1 risk factors), 21 (13.6 %) had 2 RFs, and 5 (3.2 %) ≥3 RFs. BMI was 27.2 ± 4.9 kg/m(2). Median Dox dose was 240 mg/m(2) [225-298]; 92 patients (59.7 %) received ≤240 mg/m(2) and 62 (40.3 %) > 240 mg/m(2). Baseline LVEF was 68.2 ± 8 %. At follow-up of 10.8 ± 2.2 years, LVEF was 64.4 ± 6 %. Three (1.9 %) subjects had LVEF <50 % and one (0.7 %) had LVDD. Dox >240 mg/m2 was associated with any LVEF drop. BNP levels at follow-up were 20.3 pg/ml [9.9-36.5] and 21.1 pg/ml [9.8-37.7] in those without LVD and 61.5 pg/ml [50-68.4] in those with LVD (p = 0.04). Long-term prospective data describing the impact of Dox on cardiotoxicity are sparse. At over 10 years of follow-up, decreases in LVEF are common, and dose related, but LVD as defined is infrequent (2.6 %). Monitoring with BNP for subclinical LVD needs further evaluation.

Modest elevation in BNP in asymptomatic hypertensive patients reflects sub-clinical cardiac remodeling, inflammation and extracellular matrix changes

In asymptomatic subjects B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) is associated with adverse cardiovascular outcomes even at levels well below contemporary thresholds used for the diagnosis of heart failure. The mechanisms behind these observations are unclear. We examined the hypothesis that in an asymptomatic hypertensive population BNP would be associated with sub-clinical evidence of cardiac remodeling, inflammation and extracellular matrix (ECM) alterations. We performed transthoracic echocardiography and sampled coronary sinus (CS) and peripheral serum from patients with low (n = 14) and high BNP (n = 27). Peripheral BNP was closely associated with CS levels (r = 0.92, p<0.001). CS BNP correlated significantly with CS levels of markers of collagen type I and III turnover including: PINP (r = 0.44, p = 0.008), CITP (r = 0.35, p = 0.03) and PIIINP (r = 0.35, p = 0.001), and with CS levels of inflammatory cytokines including: TNF-α (r = 0.49, p = 0.002), IL-6 (r = 0.35, p = 0.04), and IL-8 (r = 0.54, p<0.001). The high BNP group had greater CS expression of fibro-inflammatory biomarkers including: CITP (3.8±0.7 versus 5.1±1.9, p = 0.007), TNF-α (3.2±0.5 versus 3.7±1.1, p = 003), IL-6 (1.9±1.3 versus 3.4±2.7, p = 0.02) and hsCRP (1.2±1.1 versus 2.4±1.1, p = 0.04), and greater left ventricular mass index (97±20 versus 118±26 g/m(2), p = 0.03) and left atrial volume index (18±2 versus 21±4, p = 0.008). Our data provide insight into the mechanisms behind the observed negative prognostic impact of modest elevations in BNP and suggest that in an asymptomatic hypertensive cohort a peripheral BNP measurement may be a useful marker of an early, sub-clinical pathological process characterized by cardiac remodeling, inflammation and ECM alterations.

Proteomic analysis of coronary sinus serum reveals leucine-rich α2-glycoprotein as a novel biomarker of ventricular dysfunction and heart failure

BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF) prevention strategies require biomarkers that identify disease manifestation. Increases in B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) correlate with increased risk of cardiovascular events and HF development. We hypothesize that coronary sinus serum from a high BNP hypertensive population reflects an active pathological process and can be used for biomarker exploration. Our aim was to discover differentially expressed disease-associated proteins that identify patients with ventricular dysfunction and HF.

METHODS AND RESULTS: Coronary sinus serum from 11 asymptomatic, hypertensive patients underwent quantitative differential protein expression analysis by 2-dimensional difference gel electrophoresis. Proteins were identified using mass spectrometry and then studied by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in sera from 40 asymptomatic, hypertensive patients and 105 patients across the spectrum of ventricular dysfunction (32 asymptomatic left ventricular diastolic dysfunction, 26 diastolic HF, and 47 systolic HF patients). Leucine-rich α2-glycoprotein (LRG) was consistently overexpressed in high BNP serum. LRG levels correlate significantly with BNP in hypertensive, asymptomatic left ventricular diastolic dysfunction, diastolic HF, and systolic HF patient groups (P≤0.05). LRG levels were able to identify HF independent of BNP. LRG correlates with coronary sinus serum levels of tumor necrosis factor-α (P=0.009) and interleukin-6 (P=0.021). LRG is expressed in myocardial tissue and correlates with transforming growth factor-βR1 (P<0.001) and α-smooth muscle actin (P=0.025) expression.

CONCLUSIONS: LRG was identified as a serum biomarker that accurately identifies patients with HF. Multivariable modeling confirmed that LRG is a stronger identifier of HF than BNP and this is independent of age, sex, creatinine, ischemia, β-blocker therapy, and BNP.

MicroRNA signatures differentiate preserved from reduced ejection fraction heart failure

AIMS: Differentiation of heart failure with reduced (HFrEF) or preserved (HFpEF) ejection fraction independent of echocardiography is challenging in the community. Diagnostic strategies based on monitoring circulating microRNA (miRNA) levels may prove to be of clinical value in the near future. The aim of this study was to identify a novel miRNA signature that could be a useful HF diagnostic tool and provide valuable clinical information on whether a patient has HFrEF or HFpEF.

METHODS AND RESULTS: MiRNA biomarker discovery was carried out on three patient cohorts, no heart failure (no-HF), HFrEF, and HFpEF, using Taqman miRNA arrays. The top five miRNA candidates were selected based on differential expression in HFpEF and HFrEF (miR-30c, -146a, -221, -328, and -375), and their expression levels were also different between HF and no-HF. These selected miRNAs were further verified and validated in an independent cohort consisting of 225 patients. The discriminative value of BNP as a HF diagnostic could be improved by use in combination with any of the miRNA candidates alone or in a panel. Combinations of two or more miRNA candidates with BNP had the ability to improve significantly predictive models to distinguish HFpEF from HFrEF compared with using BNP alone (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve >0.82).

CONCLUSION: This study has shown for the first time that various miRNA combinations are useful biomarkers for HF, and also in the differentiation of HFpEF from HFrEF. The utility of these biomarker combinations can be altered by inclusion of natriuretic peptide. MiRNA biomarkers may support diagnostic strategies in subpopulations of patients with HF.

Progression of left atrial volume index in a population at risk for heart failure:a substudy of the STOP-HF (St Vincent's Screening TO Prevent Heart Failure) trial

AIMS: Limited data are available concerning the evolution of the left atrial volume index (LAVI) in pre-heart failure (HF) patients. The aim of this study was to investigate clinical characteristics and serological biomarkers in a cohort with risk factors for HF and evidence of serial atrial dilatation.

METHODS AND RESULTS: This was a prospective substudy within the framework of the STOP-HF cohort (NCT00921960) involving 518 patients with risk factors for HF electively undergoing serial clinical, echocardiographic, and natriuretic peptide assessment. Mean follow-up time between assessments was 15 ± 6 months. 'Progressors' (n = 39) were defined as those with serial LAVI change ≥3.5 mL/m(2) (and baseline LAVI between 20 and 34 mL/m(2)). This cut-off was derived from a calculated reference change value above the biological, analytical, and observer variability of serial LAVI measurement. Multivariate analysis identified significant baseline clinical associates of LAVI progression as increased age, beta-blocker usage, and left ventricular mass index (all P < 0.05). Serological biomarkers were measured in a randomly selected subcohort of 30 'Progressors' matched to 30 'Non-progressors'. For 'Progressors', relative changes in matrix metalloproteinase 9 (MMP9), tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase 1 (TIMP1), and the TIMP1/MMP9 ratio, markers of interstitial remodelling, tracked with changes in LAVI over time (all P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION: Accelerated LAVI increase was found to occur in up to 14% of all pre-HF patients undergoing serial echocardiograms over a relatively short follow-up period. In a randomly selected subcohort of 'Progressors', changes in LAVI were closely linked with alterations in MMP9, TIMP1, and the ratio of these enzymes, a potential aid in highlighting this at-risk group.