Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19·2 million participants

Background: Underweight and severe and morbid obesity are associated with highly elevated risks of adverse health outcomes. We estimated trends in mean body-mass index (BMI), which characterises its population distribution, and in the prevalences of a complete set of BMI categories for adults in all countries.

Methods: We analysed, with use of a consistent protocol, population-based studies that had measured height and weight in adults aged 18 years and older. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to these data to estimate trends from 1975 to 2014 in mean BMI and in the prevalences of BMI categories (<18·5 kg/m2 [underweight], 18·5 kg/m2 to <20 kg/m2, 20 kg/m2 to <25 kg/m2, 25 kg/m2 to <30 kg/m2, 30 kg/m2 to <35 kg/m2, 35 kg/m2 to <40 kg/m2, ≥40 kg/m2 [morbid obesity]), by sex in 200 countries and territories, organised in 21 regions. We calculated the posterior probability of meeting the target of halting by 2025 the rise in obesity at its 2010 levels, if post-2000 trends continue.
Findings: We used 1698 population-based data sources, with more than 19·2 million adult participants (9·9 million men and 9·3 million women) in 186 of 200 countries for which estimates were made. Global age-standardised mean BMI increased from 21·7 kg/m2 (95% credible interval 21·3–22·1) in 1975 to 24·2 kg/m2 (24·0–24·4) in 2014 in men, and from 22·1 kg/m2 (21·7–22·5) in 1975 to 24·4 kg/m2 (24·2–24·6) in 2014 in women. Regional mean BMIs in 2014 for men ranged from 21·4 kg/m2 in central Africa and south Asia to 29·2 kg/m2 (28·6–29·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia; for women the range was from 21·8 kg/m2 (21·4–22·3) in south Asia to 32·2 kg/m2 (31·5–32·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Over these four decades, age-standardised global prevalence of underweight decreased from 13·8% (10·5–17·4) to 8·8% (7·4–10·3) in men and from 14·6% (11·6–17·9) to 9·7% (8·3–11·1) in women. South Asia had the highest prevalence of underweight in 2014, 23·4% (17·8–29·2) in men and 24·0% (18·9–29·3) in women. Age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 3·2% (2·4–4·1) in 1975 to 10·8% (9·7–12·0) in 2014 in men, and from 6·4% (5·1–7·8) to 14·9% (13·6–16·1) in women. 2·3% (2·0–2·7) of the world's men and 5·0% (4·4–5·6) of women were severely obese (ie, have BMI ≥35 kg/m2). Globally, prevalence of morbid obesity was 0·64% (0·46–0·86) in men and 1·6% (1·3–1·9) in women.

Interpretation: If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global obesity target is virtually zero. Rather, if these trends continue, by 2025, global obesity prevalence will reach 18% in men and surpass 21% in women; severe obesity will surpass 6% in men and 9% in women. Nonetheless, underweight remains prevalent in the world's poorest regions, especially in south Asia.

Commentary on Tonson v. Collins (1762)

Significant case in which the arguments for and against the existence of copyright at common law were extensively debated for the first time before the Court of King's Bench. Both William Blackstone (author of Commentaries Upon the Laws of England, and one of the judges to hold in favour of the common law right in Donaldson v. Becket (uk_1774)) and Joseph Yates (who would later provide the dissenting opinion in Millar v. Taylor (uk_1769)) appeared on behalf of the plaintiff and the defendant respectively.

Commentary on An Enquiry into the Nature and Origin of Literary Property (1762)

One of a number of published commentaries contributing to the mid-eighteenth century debate concerning the nature of literary property. The author of An Enquiry sought to repudiate the concept of a natural authorial property right existing at common law. In so doing, he specifically engaged with various aspects of William Warburton's earlier commentary (see: uk_1747), as well as presenting arguments that drew upon the nature of property in general, the differences between the right claimed by proponents of the common law right and other acknowledged incorporeal properties, the similarities between patents and copyright, the history of literary property, the experience of other jurisdictions (drawing upon Venice in particular), and the consequences that would follow from conceding the existence of a perpetual right both for authors in particular and society in general. This commentary, in turn, drew its own response in the guise of A Vindication of the Exclusive Rights of Authors, to their own work (1762).

Bimanual coordination: constraints imposed by the relative timing of homologous muscle activation

It has often been supposed that patterns of rhythmic bimanual coordination in which homologous muscles are engaged simultaneously, are performed in a more stable manner than those in which the same muscles are activated in an alternating fashion. In order to assess the efficacy of this constraint, the present study investigated the effect of forearm posture (prone or supine) on bimanual abduction-adduction movements of the wrist in isodirectional and non-isodirectional modes of coordination. Irrespective of forearm posture, non-isodirectional coordination was observed to be more stable than isodirectional coordination. In the latter condition, there was a more severe deterioration of coordination accuracy/stability as a function of cycling frequency than in the former condition. With elevations in cycling frequency, the performers recruited extra mechanical degrees of freedom, principally via flexion-extension of the wrist, which gave rise to increasing motion in the vertical plane. The increases in movement amplitude in the vertical plane were accompanied by decreasing amplitude in the horizontal plane. In agreement with previous studies, the present findings confirm that the relative timing of homologous muscle activation acts as a principal constraint upon the stability of interlimb coordination. Furthermore, it is argued that the use of manipulations of limb posture to investigate the role of other classes of constraint (e.g. perceptual) should be approached with caution because such manipulations affect the mapping between muscle activation patterns, movement dynamics and kinematics.

Finite element investigation of the structural behaviour of deck slabs in composite bridges

This research studies the structural behaviour of bridge deck slabs under static patch loads in steel–concrete composite bridges and investigates compressive membrane action (CMA) in concrete bridge decks slabs, which governs the structural behaviour. A non-linear 3D finite element analysis models was developed using ABAQUS 6.5 software packages. Experimental data from one-span composite bridge structures are used to validate and calibrate the proposed FEM models. A series of parametric studies is conducted. The analysis results are discussed and conclusions on the behaviour of the bridge decks are presented.

Cell-collagen interactions: the use of peptide Toolkits to investigate collagen-receptor interactions

Fibrillar collagens provide the most fundamental platform in the vertebrate organism for the attachment of cells and matrix molecules. we have identified specific sites in collagens to which cells can attach, either directly or through protein intermediaries. Using Toolkits of triple-helical peptides, each peptide comprising 27 residues of collagen primary sequence and overlapping with its neighbours by nine amino acids, we have mapped the binding of receptors and other proteins on to collagens II or III. Integrin alpha 2 beta 1 binds to several GXX'GER motifs within the collagens, the affinities of which differ sufficiently to control cell adhesion and migration independently of the cellular regulation of the integrin. The platelet receptor, Gp (glycoprotein) VI binds well to GPO (where 0 is hydroxyproline)-containing model peptides, but to very few Toolkit peptides, suggesting that sequence in addition to GPO triplets is important in defining GpVI binding. The Toolkits have been applied to the plasma protein vWF (von Willebrand factor), which binds to only a single sequence, identified by truncation and amino acid substitution within Toolkit peptides, as GXRGQOGVMGFO in collagens II and III. Intriguingly, the receptor tyrosine kinase, DDR2 (discoidin domain receptor 2) recognizes three sites in collagen II, including its vWF-binding site, although the amino acids that support the interaction differ slightly within this motif. Furthermore, the secreted protein BM-40 (basement membrane protein 40) also binds well to this same region. Thus the availability of extracellular collagen-binding proteins may be important in regulating and facilitating direct collagen-receptor interaction.

A 'Teague' and a 'True Briton': Charles Johnstone, Ireland, and Empire

Charles Johnstone's literary output - which included Chrysal: or, the Adventures of a Guinea (1760) and a series of novels between 1762 and 1781 prior to his departure for Calcutta in 1782 - features a marked geographical and historical preoccupation with empire. The trajectory of Johnstone's life from Carrigogunnell and Dublin in Ireland, to London, and finally to Calcutta, indicates the remarkable possibilities for self-transformation which empire from Ireland to India offered during the eighteenth century. This paper examines the significance of empire in Johnstone's oeuvre, and identifies for the first time a series of articles written by him in The Calcutta Gazette in 1785.

Sample size in studies on diagnostic accuracy in ophthalmology:A literature survey

Aim: To assess the sample sizes used in studies on diagnostic accuracy in ophthalmology. Design and sources: A survey literature published in 2005. Methods: The frequency of reporting calculations of sample sizes and the samples' sizes were extracted from the published literature. A manual search of five leading clinical journals in ophthalmology with the highest impact (Investigative Ophthalmology and Visual Science, Ophthalmology, Archives of Ophthalmology, American Journal of Ophthalmology and British Journal of Ophthalmology) was conducted by two independent investigators. Results: A total of 1698 articles were identified, of which 40 studies were on diagnostic accuracy. One study reported that sample size was calculated before initiating the study. Another study reported consideration of sample size without calculation. The mean (SD) sample size of all diagnostic studies was 172.6 (218.9). The median prevalence of the target condition was 50.5%. Conclusion: Only a few studies consider sample size in their methods. Inadequate sample sizes in diagnostic accuracy studies may result in misleading estimates of test accuracy. An improvement over the current standards on the design and reporting of diagnostic studies is warranted.

Log gf values for astrophysically important transitions Fe II

Aims. In a recent measurement, Meléndez & Barbuy (2009, A&A, 497, 611) report accurate log gf values for 142 important astrophysical lines with wavelengths in the range 4000 Å to 8000 Å. Their results include both solar and laboratory measurements. In this paper, we describe a theoretical study of these lines. Methods. The CIV3 structure codes, combined with our "fine-tuning" extrapolation process, are used to undertake a large-scale CI calculation involving the lowest 262 fine-structure levels belonging to the 3d4s, 3d, 3d4s, 3d4p, and 3d4s4p configurations. Results. We find that many of the 142 transitions are very weak intercombination lines. Other transitions are weak because the dominant configurations in the two levels differ by two orbitals. Conclusions. The comparison between our log gf values and the experimental values generally shows good agreement for most of these transitions, with our theoretical values agreeing slightly more closely with the solar than with the laboratory measurements. A detailed analysis of the small number of transitions for which the agreement between theory and experiment is not as good shows that such disagreements largely arise from severe cancellation due to CI mixing.

Three-dimensional pure deflagration models with nucleosynthesis and synthetic observables for type ia supernovae

We investigate whether pure deflagration models ofChandrasekhar-mass carbon-oxygen white dwarf stars can account for one or more subclass of the observed population of Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) explosions. We compute a set of 3D full-star hydrodynamic explosion models, in which the deflagration strength is parametrized using the multispot ignition approach. For each model, we calculate detailed nucleosynthesis yields in a post-processing step with a 384 nuclide nuclear network. We also compute synthetic observables with our 3D Monte Carlo radiative transfer code for comparison with observations. For weak and intermediate deflagration strengths (energy release E {less-than or approximate} 1.1 × 10 erg), we find that the explosion leaves behind a bound remnant enriched with 3 to 10 per cent (by mass) of deflagration ashes. However, we do not obtain the large kick velocities recently reported in the literature. We find that weak deflagrations with E ~ 0.5 × 10 erg fit well both the light curves and spectra of 2002cx-like SNe Ia, and models with even lower explosion energies could explain some of the fainter members of this subclass. By comparing our synthetic observables with the properties of SNe Ia, we can exclude the brightest, most vigorously ignited models as candidates for any observed class of SN Ia: their B-V colours deviate significantly from both normal and 2002cx-like SNe Ia and they are too bright to be candidates for other subclasses.

Dietary patterns and cardiovascular risk factors in adolescents and young adults: the Northern Ireland Young Hearts Project

Dietary pattern (DP) analysis allows examination of the combined effects of nutrients and foods on the markers of CVD. Very few studies have examined these relationships during adolescence or young adulthood. Traditional CVD risk biomarkers were analysed in 12-15-year-olds (n 487; Young Hearts (YH)1) and again in the same individuals at 20-25 years of age (n 487; YH3). Based on 7 d diet histories, in the present study, DP analysis was performed using a posteriori principal component analysis for the YH3 cohort and the a priori Mediterranean Diet Score (MDS) was calculated for both YH1 and YH3 cohorts. In the a posteriori DP analysis, YH3 participants adhering most closely to the 'healthy' DP were found to have lower pulse wave velocity (PWV) and homocysteine concentrations, the 'sweet tooth' DP were found to have increased LDL concentrations, systolic blood pressure, and diastolic blood pressure and decreased HDL concentrations, the 'drinker/social' DP were found to have lower LDL and homocysteine concentrations, but exhibited a trend towards a higher TAG concentration, and finally the 'Western' DP were found to have elevated homocysteine and HDL concentrations. In the a priori dietary score analysis, YH3 participants adhering most closely to the Mediterranean diet were found to exhibit a trend towards a lower PWV. MDS did not track between YH1 and YH3, and nor was there a longitudinal relationship between the change in the MDS and the change in CVD risk biomarkers. In conclusion, cross-sectional analysis revealed that some associations between DP and CVD risk biomarkers were already evident in the young adult population, namely the association between the healthy DP (and the MDS) and PWV; however, no longitudinal associations were observed between these relatively short time periods.