Forecasting Death Rates Using Exogenous Determinants

Mortality models used for forecasting are predominantly based on the statistical properties of time series and do not generally incorporate an understanding of the forces driving secular trends. This paper addresses three research questions: Can the factors found in stochastic mortality-forecasting models be associated with real-world trends in health-related variables? Does inclusion of health-related factors in models improve forecasts? Do resulting models give better forecasts than existing stochastic mortality models? We consider whether the space spanned by the latent factor structure in mortality data can be adequately described by developments in gross domestic product, health expenditure and lifestyle-related risk factors using statistical techniques developed in macroeconomics and finance. These covariates are then shown to improve forecasts when incorporated into a Bayesian hierarchical model. Results are comparable or better than benchmark stochastic mortality models.

Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19·2 million participants

Background: Underweight and severe and morbid obesity are associated with highly elevated risks of adverse health outcomes. We estimated trends in mean body-mass index (BMI), which characterises its population distribution, and in the prevalences of a complete set of BMI categories for adults in all countries.

Methods: We analysed, with use of a consistent protocol, population-based studies that had measured height and weight in adults aged 18 years and older. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to these data to estimate trends from 1975 to 2014 in mean BMI and in the prevalences of BMI categories (<18·5 kg/m2 [underweight], 18·5 kg/m2 to <20 kg/m2, 20 kg/m2 to <25 kg/m2, 25 kg/m2 to <30 kg/m2, 30 kg/m2 to <35 kg/m2, 35 kg/m2 to <40 kg/m2, ≥40 kg/m2 [morbid obesity]), by sex in 200 countries and territories, organised in 21 regions. We calculated the posterior probability of meeting the target of halting by 2025 the rise in obesity at its 2010 levels, if post-2000 trends continue.
Findings: We used 1698 population-based data sources, with more than 19·2 million adult participants (9·9 million men and 9·3 million women) in 186 of 200 countries for which estimates were made. Global age-standardised mean BMI increased from 21·7 kg/m2 (95% credible interval 21·3–22·1) in 1975 to 24·2 kg/m2 (24·0–24·4) in 2014 in men, and from 22·1 kg/m2 (21·7–22·5) in 1975 to 24·4 kg/m2 (24·2–24·6) in 2014 in women. Regional mean BMIs in 2014 for men ranged from 21·4 kg/m2 in central Africa and south Asia to 29·2 kg/m2 (28·6–29·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia; for women the range was from 21·8 kg/m2 (21·4–22·3) in south Asia to 32·2 kg/m2 (31·5–32·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Over these four decades, age-standardised global prevalence of underweight decreased from 13·8% (10·5–17·4) to 8·8% (7·4–10·3) in men and from 14·6% (11·6–17·9) to 9·7% (8·3–11·1) in women. South Asia had the highest prevalence of underweight in 2014, 23·4% (17·8–29·2) in men and 24·0% (18·9–29·3) in women. Age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 3·2% (2·4–4·1) in 1975 to 10·8% (9·7–12·0) in 2014 in men, and from 6·4% (5·1–7·8) to 14·9% (13·6–16·1) in women. 2·3% (2·0–2·7) of the world's men and 5·0% (4·4–5·6) of women were severely obese (ie, have BMI ≥35 kg/m2). Globally, prevalence of morbid obesity was 0·64% (0·46–0·86) in men and 1·6% (1·3–1·9) in women.

Interpretation: If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global obesity target is virtually zero. Rather, if these trends continue, by 2025, global obesity prevalence will reach 18% in men and surpass 21% in women; severe obesity will surpass 6% in men and 9% in women. Nonetheless, underweight remains prevalent in the world's poorest regions, especially in south Asia.

Valuing the cultural monuments of Armenia: Bayesian updating of prior beliefs in contingent valuation

The most appropriate way to measure the social benefits of conserving built cultural heritage sites is to ask the beneficiaries of conservation interventions how much they would be willing to pay for them. We use contingent valuation - a survey-based approach that elicits willingness to pay (WTP) directly from individuals - to estimate the benefits of a nationwide conservation of built cultural heritage sites in Armenia. The survey was administered to Armenian nationals living in Armenia, and obtained extensive information about the respondents' perceptions of the current state of conservation of monuments in Armenia, described the current situation, presented a hypothetical conservation program, elicited WTP for it, and queried individuals about what they thought would happen to monument sites in the absence of the government conservation program. We posit that respondents combined the information about the fate of monuments provided by the questionnaire with their prior beliefs, and that WTP for the good, or program, is likely to be affected by these updated beliefs. We propose a Bayesian updating model of prior beliefs, and empirically implement it with the data from our survey. We found that uncertainty about what would happen to monuments in the absence of the program results in lower WTP amounts. © 2008 Pion Ltd and its Licensors.

The chronostratigraphy of the Haua Fteah cave (Cyrenaica, northeast Libya)

The 1950s excavations by Charles McBurney in the Haua Fteah, a large karstic cave on the coast of northeast Libya, revealed a deep sequence of human occupation. Most subsequent research on North African prehistory refers to his discoveries and interpretations, but the chronology of its archaeological and geological sequences has been based on very early age determinations. This paper reports on the initial results of a comprehensive multi-method dating program undertaken as part of new work at the site, involving radiocarbon dating of charcoal, land snails and marine shell, cryptotephra investigations, optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating of sediments, and electron spin resonance (ESR) dating of tooth enamel. The dating samples were collected from the newly exposed and cleaned faces of the upper 7.5m of the ~14.0m-deep McBurney trench, which contain six of the seven major cultural phases that he identified. Despite problems of sediment transport and reworking, using a Bayesian statistical model the new dating program establishes a robust framework for the five major lithostratigraphic units identified in the stratigraphic succession, and for the major cultural units. The age of two anatomically modern human mandibles found by McBurney in Layer XXXIII near the base of his Levalloiso-Mousterian phase can now be estimated to between 73 and 65ka (thousands of years ago) at the 95.4% confidence level, within Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 4. McBurney's Layer XXV, associated with Upper Palaeolithic Dabban blade industries, has a clear stratigraphic relationship with Campanian Ignimbrite tephra. Microlithic Oranian technologies developed following the climax of the Last Glacial Maximum and the more microlithic Capsian in the Younger Dryas. Neolithic pottery and perhaps domestic livestock were used in the cave from the mid Holocene but there is no certain evidence for plant cultivation until the Graeco-Roman period. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

A new statistical framework for the quantification of covariate associations with species distributions

Identifying processes that shape species geographical ranges is a prerequisite for understanding environmental change. Currently, species distribution modelling methods do not offer credible statistical tests of the relative influence of climate factors and typically ignore other processes (e.g. biotic interactions and dispersal limitation). We use a hierarchical model fitted with Markov Chain Monte Carlo to combine ecologically plausible niche structures using regression splines to describe unimodal but potentially skewed response terms. We apply spatially explicit error terms that account for (and may help identify) missing variables. Using three example distributions of European bird species, we map model results to show sensitivity to change in each covariate. We show that the overall strength of climatic association differs between species and that each species has considerable spatial variation in both the strength of the climatic association and the sensitivity to climate change. Our methods are widely applicable to many species distribution modelling problems and enable accurate assessment of the statistical importance of biotic and abiotic influences on distributions.

Hierarchical Bayesian models in ecology: Reconstructing species interaction networks from non-homogeneous species abundance data

The relationships among organisms and their surroundings can be of immense complexity. To describe and understand an ecosystem as a tangled bank, multiple ways of interaction and their effects have to be considered, such as predation, competition, mutualism and facilitation. Understanding the resulting interaction networks is a challenge in changing environments, e.g. to predict knock-on effects of invasive species and to understand how climate change impacts biodiversity. The elucidation of complex ecological systems with their interactions will benefit enormously from the development of new machine learning tools that aim to infer the structure of interaction networks from field data. In the present study, we propose a novel Bayesian regression and multiple changepoint model (BRAM) for reconstructing species interaction networks from observed species distributions. The model has been devised to allow robust inference in the presence of spatial autocorrelation and distributional heterogeneity. We have evaluated the model on simulated data that combines a trophic niche model with a stochastic population model on a 2-dimensional lattice, and we have compared the performance of our model with L1-penalized sparse regression (LASSO) and non-linear Bayesian networks with the BDe scoring scheme. In addition, we have applied our method to plant ground coverage data from the western shore of the Outer Hebrides with the objective to infer the ecological interactions. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A hierarchical physical model-based approach to predictive control of a thermal power plant for efficient plant-wide disturbance rejection

Extending the work presented in Prasad et al. (IEEE Proceedings on Control Theory and Applications, 147, 523-37, 2000), this paper reports a hierarchical nonlinear physical model-based control strategy to account for the problems arising due to complex dynamics of drum level and governor valve, and demonstrates its effectiveness in plant-wide disturbance handling. The strategy incorporates a two-level control structure consisting of lower-level conventional PI regulators and a higher-level nonlinear physical model predictive controller (NPMPC) for mainly set-point manoeuvring. The lower-level PI loops help stabilise the unstable drum-boiler dynamics and allow faster governor valve action for power and grid-frequency regulation. The higher-level NPMPC provides an optimal load demand (or set-point) transition by effective handling of plant-wide interactions and system disturbances. The strategy has been tested in a simulation of a 200-MW oil-fired power plant at Ballylumford in Northern Ireland. A novel approach is devized to test the disturbance rejection capability in severe operating conditions. Low frequency disturbances were created by making random changes in radiation heat flow on the boiler-side, while condenser vacuum was fluctuating in a random fashion on the turbine side. In order to simulate high-frequency disturbances, pulse-type load disturbances were made to strike at instants which are not an integral multiple of the NPMPC sampling period. Impressive results have been obtained during both types of system disturbances and extremely high rates of load changes, right across the operating range, These results compared favourably with those from a conventional state-space generalized predictive control (GPC) method designed under similar conditions.

A Bayesian Network Hybrid Model for Representing Accident and Emergency Waiting Times

The paper introduces a new modeling approach that represents the waiting times in an Accident and Emergency (A&E) Department in a UK based National Health Service (NHS) hospital. The technique uses Bayesian networks to capture the heterogeneity of arriving patients by representing how patient covariates interact to influence their waiting times in the department. Such waiting times have been reviewed by the NHS as a means of investigating the efficiency of A&E departments (Emergency Rooms) and how they operate. As a result activity targets are now established based on the patient total waiting times with much emphasis on trolley waits.

A Bayesian network hybrid model for representing accident and emergency waiting times

The paper introduces a new modeling approach that represents the waiting times in an accident and emergency (A&E) department in a UK based national health service (NHS) hospital. The technique uses Bayesian networks to capture the heterogeneity of arriving patients by representing how patient covariates interact to influence their waiting times in the department. Such waiting times have been reviewed by the NHS as a means of investigating the efficiency of A&E departments (emergency rooms) and how they operate. As a result activity targets are now established based on the patient total waiting times with much emphasis on trolley waits.

Improving multi-site benefit functions via Bayesian model averaging: A new approach to benefit transfer

A benefit function transfer obtains estimates of willingness-to-pay (WTP) for the evaluation of a given policy at a site by combining existing information from different study sites. This has the advantage that more efficient estimates are obtained, but it relies on the assumption that the heterogeneity between sites is appropriately captured in the benefit transfer model. A more expensive alternative to estimate WTP is to analyze only data from the policy site in question while ignoring information from other sites. We make use of the fact that these two choices can be viewed as a model selection problem and extend the set of models to allow for the hypothesis that the benefit function is only applicable to a subset of sites. We show how Bayesian model averaging (BMA) techniques can be used to optimally combine information from all models. The Bayesian algorithm searches for the set of sites that can form the basis for estimating a benefit function and reveals whether such information can be transferred to new sites for which only a small data set is available. We illustrate the method with a sample of 42 forests from U.K. and Ireland. We find that BMA benefit function transfer produces reliable estimates and can increase about 8 times the information content of a small sample when the forest is 'poolable'. © 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Model selection approaches for non-linear system identification: a review

The identification of non-linear systems using only observed finite datasets has become a mature research area over the last two decades. A class of linear-in-the-parameter models with universal approximation capabilities have been intensively studied and widely used due to the availability of many linear-learning algorithms and their inherent convergence conditions. This article presents a systematic overview of basic research on model selection approaches for linear-in-the-parameter models. One of the fundamental problems in non-linear system identification is to find the minimal model with the best model generalisation performance from observational data only. The important concepts in achieving good model generalisation used in various non-linear system-identification algorithms are first reviewed, including Bayesian parameter regularisation and models selective criteria based on the cross validation and experimental design. A significant advance in machine learning has been the development of the support vector machine as a means for identifying kernel models based on the structural risk minimisation principle. The developments on the convex optimisation-based model construction algorithms including the support vector regression algorithms are outlined. Input selection algorithms and on-line system identification algorithms are also included in this review. Finally, some industrial applications of non-linear models are discussed.

Building on IUCN regional red lists to produce lists of species of conservation priority: a model with Irish bees

A World Conservation Union (IUCN) regional red list is an objective assessment of regional extinction risk and is not the same as a list of conservation priority species. Recent research reveals the widespread, but incorrect, assumption that IUCN Red List categories represent a hierarchical list of priorities for conservation action. We developed a simple eight-step priority-setting process and applied it to the conservation of bees in Ireland. Our model is based on the national red list but also considers the global significance of the national population; the conservation status at global, continental, and regional levels; key biological, economic, and societal factors; and is compatible with existing conservation agreements and legislation. Throughout Ireland, almost one-third of the bee fauna is threatened (30 of 100 species), but our methodology resulted in a reduced list of only 17 priority species. We did not use the priority species list to broadly categorize species to the conservation action required; instead, we indicated the individual action required for all threatened, near-threatened, and data-deficient species on the national red list based on the IUCN's conservation-actions template file. Priority species lists will strongly influence prioritization of conservation actions at national levels, but action should not be exclusive to listed species. In addition, all species on this list will not necessarily require immediate action. Our method is transparent, reproducible, and readily applicable to other taxa and regions.