A Validation Study of Vascular Cognitive Impairment Genetics Meta-Analysis Findings in an Independent Collaborative Cohort

Vascular cognitive impairment (VCI), including its severe form, vascular dementia (VaD), is the second most common form of dementia. The genetic etiology of sporadic VCI remains largely unknown. We previously conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of all published genetic association studies of sporadic VCI prior to 6 July 2012, which demonstrated that APOE (ɛ4, ɛ2) and MTHFR (rs1801133) variants were associated with susceptibility for VCI. De novo genotyping was conducted in a new independent relatively large collaborative European cohort of VaD (nmax = 549) and elderly non-demented samples (nmax = 552). Where available, genotype data derived from Illumina's 610-quad array for 1210 GERAD1 control samples were also included in analyses of genes examined. Associations were tested using the Cochran-Armitage trend test: MTHFR rs1801133 (OR = 1.36, 95% CI 1.16-1.58, p = <0.0001), APOE rs7412 (OR = 0.62, 95% CI 0.42-0.90, p = 0.01), and APOE rs429358 (OR = 1.59, 95% CI 1.17-2.16, p = 0.003). Association was also observed with APOE epsilon alleles; ɛ4 (OR = 1.85, 95% CI 1.35-2.52, p = <0.0001) and ɛ2 (OR = 0.67, 95% CI 0.46-0.98, p = 0.03). Logistic Regression and Bonferroni correction in a subgroup of the cohort adjusted for gender, age, and population maintained the association of APOE rs429358 and ɛ4 allele.

Common polygenic variation enhances risk prediction for Alzheimer's disease.

The identification of subjects at high risk for Alzheimer’s disease is important for prognosis and early intervention. We investigated the polygenic architecture of Alzheimer’s disease and the accuracy of Alzheimer’s disease prediction models, including and excluding the polygenic component in the model. This study used genotype data from the powerful dataset comprising 17 008 cases and 37 154 controls obtained from the International Genomics of Alzheimer’s Project (IGAP). Polygenic score analysis tested whether the alleles identified to associate with disease in one sample set were significantly enriched in the cases relative to the controls in an independent sample. The disease prediction accuracy was investigated in a subset of the IGAP data, a sample of 3049 cases and 1554 controls (for whom APOE genotype data were available) by means of sensitivity, specificity, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and positive and negative predictive values. We observed significant evidence for a polygenic component enriched in Alzheimer’s disease (P = 4.9 × 10−26). This enrichment remained significant after APOE and other genome-wide associated regions were excluded (P = 3.4 × 10−19). The best prediction accuracy AUC = 78.2% (95% confidence interval 77–80%) was achieved by a logistic regression model with APOE, the polygenic score, sex and age as predictors. In conclusion, Alzheimer’s disease has a significant polygenic component, which has predictive utility for Alzheimer’s disease risk and could be a valuable research tool complementing experimental designs, including preventative clinical trials, stem cell selection and high/low risk clinical studies. In modelling a range of sample disease prevalences, we found that polygenic scores almost doubles case prediction from chance with increased prediction at polygenic extremes.