Appropriate complexity for the prediction of coastal and estuarine geomorphic behaviour at decadal to centennial scales

Coastal and estuarine landforms provide a physical template that not only accommodates diverse ecosystem functions and human activities, but also mediates flood and erosion risks that are expected to increase with climate change. In this paper, we explore some of the issues associated with the conceptualisation and modelling of coastal morphological change at time and space scales relevant to managers and policy makers. Firstly, we revisit the question of how to define the most appropriate scales at which to seek quantitative predictions of landform change within an age defined by human interference with natural sediment systems and by the prospect of significant changes in climate and ocean forcing. Secondly, we consider the theoretical bases and conceptual frameworks for determining which processes are most important at a given scale of interest and the related problem of how to translate this understanding into models that are computationally feasible, retain a sound physical basis and demonstrate useful predictive skill. In particular, we explore the limitations of a primary scale approach and the extent to which these can be resolved with reference to the concept of the coastal tract and application of systems theory. Thirdly, we consider the importance of different styles of landform change and the need to resolve not only incremental evolution of morphology but also changes in the qualitative dynamics of a system and/or its gross morphological configuration. The extreme complexity and spatially distributed nature of landform systems means that quantitative prediction of future changes must necessarily be approached through mechanistic modelling of some form or another. Geomorphology has increasingly embraced so-called ‘reduced complexity’ models as a means of moving from an essentially reductionist focus on the mechanics of sediment transport towards a more synthesist view of landform evolution. However, there is little consensus on exactly what constitutes a reduced complexity model and the term itself is both misleading and, arguably, unhelpful. Accordingly, we synthesise a set of requirements for what might be termed ‘appropriate complexity modelling’ of quantitative coastal morphological change at scales commensurate with contemporary management and policy-making requirements: 1) The system being studied must be bounded with reference to the time and space scales at which behaviours of interest emerge and/or scientific or management problems arise; 2) model complexity and comprehensiveness must be appropriate to the problem at hand; 3) modellers should seek a priori insights into what kind of behaviours are likely to be evident at the scale of interest and the extent to which the behavioural validity of a model may be constrained by its underlying assumptions and its comprehensiveness; 4) informed by qualitative insights into likely dynamic behaviour, models should then be formulated with a view to resolving critical state changes; and 5) meso-scale modelling of coastal morphological change should reflect critically on the role of modelling and its relation to the observable world.

Technological aids for the rehabilitation of memory and executive functioning in children and adolescents with acquired brain injury (Review).

Background The use of technology in healthcare settings is on the increase and may represent a cost-effective means of delivering rehabilitation. Reductions in treatment time, and delivery in the home, are also thought to be benefits of this approach. Children and adolescents with brain injury often experience deficits in memory and executive functioning that can negatively affect their school work, social lives, and future occupations. Effective interventions that can be delivered at home, without the need for high-cost clinical involvement, could provide a means to address a current lack of provision. We have systematically reviewed studies examining the effects of technology-based interventions for the rehabilitation of deficits in memory and executive functioning in children and adolescents with acquired brain injury. Objectives To assess the effects of technology-based interventions compared to placebo intervention, no treatment, or other types of intervention, on the executive functioning and memory of children and adolescents with acquired brain injury. Search methods We ran the search on the 30 September 2015. We searched the Cochrane Injuries Group Specialised Register, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), Ovid MEDLINE(R), Ovid MEDLINE(R) In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations, Ovid MEDLINE(R) Daily and Ovid OLDMEDLINE(R), EMBASE Classic + EMBASE (OvidSP), ISI Web of Science (SCI-EXPANDED, SSCI, CPCI-S, and CPSI-SSH), CINAHL Plus (EBSCO), two other databases, and clinical trials registers. We also searched the internet, screened reference lists, and contacted authors of included studies. Selection criteria Randomised controlled trials comparing the use of a technological aid for the rehabilitation of children and adolescents with memory or executive-functioning deficits with placebo, no treatment, or another intervention. Data collection and analysis Two review authors independently reviewed titles and abstracts identified by the search strategy. Following retrieval of full-text manuscripts, two review authors independently performed data extraction and assessed the risk of bias. Main results Four studies (involving 206 participants) met the inclusion criteria for this review. Three studies, involving 194 participants, assessed the effects of online interventions to target executive functioning (that is monitoring and changing behaviour, problem solving, planning, etc.). These studies, which were all conducted by the same research team, compared online interventions against a 'placebo' (participants were given internet resources on brain injury). The interventions were delivered in the family home with additional support or training, or both, from a psychologist or doctoral student. The fourth study investigated the use of a computer program to target memory in addition to components of executive functioning (that is attention, organisation, and problem solving). No information on the study setting was provided, however a speech-language pathologist, teacher, or occupational therapist accompanied participants. Two studies assessed adolescents and young adults with mild to severe traumatic brain injury (TBI), while the remaining two studies assessed children and adolescents with moderate to severe TBI. Risk of bias We assessed the risk of selection bias as low for three studies and unclear for one study. Allocation bias was high in two studies, unclear in one study, and low in one study. Only one study (n = 120) was able to conceal allocation from participants, therefore overall selection bias was assessed as high. One study took steps to conceal assessors from allocation (low risk of detection bias), while the other three did not do so (high risk of detection bias). Primary outcome 1: Executive functioning: Technology-based intervention versus placebo Results from meta-analysis of three studies (n = 194) comparing online interventions with a placebo for children and adolescents with TBI, favoured the intervention immediately post-treatment (standardised mean difference (SMD) -0.37, 95% confidence interval (CI) -0.66 to -0.09; P = 0.62; I2 = 0%). (As there is no 'gold standard' measure in the field, we have not translated the SMD back to any particular scale.) This result is thought to represent only a small to medium effect size (using Cohen’s rule of thumb, where 0.2 is a small effect, 0.5 a medium one, and 0.8 or above is a large effect); this is unlikely to have a clinically important effect on the participant. The fourth study (n = 12) reported differences between the intervention and control groups on problem solving (an important component of executive functioning). No means or standard deviations were presented for this outcome, therefore an effect size could not be calculated. The quality of evidence for this outcome according to GRADE was very low. This means future research is highly likely to change the estimate of effect. Primary outcome 2: Memory One small study (n = 12) reported a statistically significant difference in improvement in sentence recall between the intervention and control group following an eight-week remediation programme. No means or standard deviations were presented for this outcome, therefore an effect size could not be calculated. Secondary outcomes Two studies (n = 158) reported on anxiety/depression as measured by the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) and were included in a meta-analysis. We found no evidence of an effect with the intervention (mean difference -5.59, 95% CI -11.46 to 0.28; I2 = 53%). The GRADE quality of evidence for this outcome was very low, meaning future research is likely to change the estimate of effect. A single study sought to record adverse events and reported none. Two studies reported on use of the intervention (range 0 to 13 and 1 to 24 sessions). One study reported on social functioning/social competence and found no effect. The included studies reported no data for other secondary outcomes (that is quality of life and academic achievement). Authors' conclusions This review provides low-quality evidence for the use of technology-based interventions in the rehabilitation of executive functions and memory for children and adolescents with TBI. As all of the included studies contained relatively small numbers of participants (12 to 120), our findings should be interpreted with caution. The involvement of a clinician or therapist, rather than use of the technology, may have led to the success of these interventions. Future research should seek to replicate these findings with larger samples, in other regions, using ecologically valid outcome measures, and reduced clinician involvement.

Challenging assumptions of future coastal habitat development around the UK

One habitat management requirement forced by 21st century relative sea-level rise (RSLR), will be the need to re-comprehend the dimensions of long-term transgressive behaviour of coastal systems being forced by such RSLR. Fresh approaches to the conceptual modelling and subsequent implementation of new coastal and peri-marine habitats will be required. There is concern that existing approaches to forecasting coastal systems development (and by implication their associated scarce coastal habitats) over the next century depend on a certain premise of orderly spatial succession of habitats. This assumption is shown to be questionable given the possible future rates of RSLR, magnitude of shoreline retreat and the lack of coastal sediment to maintain the protective morphologies to low-energy coastal habitats. Of these issues, sediment deficiency is regarded as one of the major problem for future habitat development. Examples of contemporary behaviour of UK coasts show evidence of coastal sediment starvation resulting from relatively stable RSLR, anthropogenic sealing of coastal sources, and intercepted coastal sediment pathways, which together force segmentation of coastal systems. From these examples key principles are deduced which may prejudice the existence of future habitats: accelerated future sediment demand due to RSLR may not be met by supply and, if short- to medium-term hold-the-line policies predominate, long-term strategies for managed realignment and habitat enhancement may prove impossible goals. Methods of contemporary sediment husbandry may help sustain some habitats in place but otherwise, instead of integrated coastal organization, managers may need to consider coastal breakdown, segmentation and habitat reduction as the basis of 21st century coastal evolution and planning.

Pollinators of an endemic and endangered species, Mammillaria gaumeri (Cactaceae), in its natural habitat (coastal dune) and in a botanical garden.

Mammillaria gaumeri (Britton & Ross) Orcutt (Cactaceae), an endemic plant of the Yucatan Peninsula, is included by the Mexican government in the list of species that require special protection. Its natural habitat is now restricted to fragmented areas and protection programs involve botanical gardens in growing individuals rescued from disturbed areas. Little information is available on the reproductive characteristics of this species and nothing is known of its pollinators. We investigated the visitors of M. gaumeri flowers, collecting and observing bee species in its natural habitat (i.e., coastal dune) and in a botanical garden, where coastal dune vegetation had been created. Observations were made on plants whose density was artificially increased by grouping flowering individuals. At each site, we: 1) collected insects visiting the flowers; 2) recorded number of visits; and 3) video-recorded bee movements on the flowers. As expected, the number of bee species and visitation frequency were higher at the botanical garden than at the coastal dune. After landing on a flower, bees either inspected the anthers or dived among them. These behaviors, carried out by all observed species, seemed related to the state of the anthers (full or empty of pollen) and stigma lobes (opened or closed). Specifically, visits lasted longer when anthers were full of pollen and stigma lobes were opened. The same bee species recorded on the dune were also recorded at the botanical garden, suggesting that the artificial dune at the botanical garden offered suitable conditions for the natural pollinators of this endangered cactus.

Geotechnical monitoring using a combination of LIDAR, real-time dGPS, and electrical tomography to assess geotechnical risk of a coastal landslide.

The Antrim Coast Road stretching from the seaport of Larne in the East of Northern Ireland has a well-deserved reputation for being one of the most spectacular roads in Europe (Day, 2006). However the problematic geology; Jurassic Lias Clay and Triassic Mudstone overlain by Cretaceous Limestone and Tertiary Basalt, and environmental variables result in frequent instances of slope instability manifested in both shallow debris flows and occasional massive rotational movements, creating a geotechnical risk to this highway. This paper describes how a variety of techniques are being used to both assess instability and monitor movement of these active slopes near one site at Straidkilly Point, Glenarm. An in-depth understanding of the geology was obtained via boreholes, resistivity surveys and laboratory testing. Environmental variables recorded by an on-site weather station were correlated with measured pore water pressure and soil moisture infiltration data. Terrestrial LiDAR (TLS), with surveys carried out on a bi-monthly basis allowed for the generation of Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) of difference, highlighting areas of recent movement, accumulation and depletion. Morphology parameters were generated from the DEMs and include slope, curvature and multiple measures of roughness. Changes in the structure of the slope coupled with morphological parameters were characterised and linked to progressive failures from the temporal monitoring. In addition to TLS monitoring, Aerial LiDAR datasets were used for the spatio-morphological characterisation of the slope on a macro scale. A Differential Global Positioning System (dGPS) was also deployed on site to provide a real-time warning system for gross movements, which were also correlated with environmental conditions. Frequent electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) surveys were also implemented to provide a better understanding of long-term changes in soil moisture and help to define the complex geology. The paper describes how the data obtained via a diverse range of methods has been combined to facilitate a more informed management regime of geotechnical risk by the Northern Ireland Roads Service.