48 resultados para volatility spillover

em QUB Research Portal - Research Directory and Institutional Repository for Queen's University Belfast


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The effect of spillover processes on the activity of a catalyst system consisting of a mixed oxygen ion and electronic conducting support La0.6Sr0.4Co0.2Fe0.8O3d and a metal catalyst (Pt) were investigated. Two types of model single-pellet catalysts were used employing Pt deposited on both sides of a dense LSCF disc pellet. One of these single pellets employed highly disperse, physically non-continuous Pt, in contrast to studies on electrochemical promotion, while the other used a low dispersion continuous film. Driving forces for promoter migration were controlled through the manipulation of the oxygen chemical potential difference across the membrane. Catalyst rate modification was observed in all cases. However, it was found that there is a complex relationship between the rate modification, the driving forces for spillover and the geometrical arrangement of the catalyst on the support (i.e. catalyst dispersion).

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Although widely debated in broader socioeconomic terms, the Eurozone crisis has not received adequate scholarly attention with regards to the impact of alternative political systems. This article revisits the debate on majoritarian and consensus democracies drawing on recent evidence from the Eurozone debacle. Greece is particularly interesting both with regards to its potential ‘global spillover effects’ and choice of political system. Despite facing comparable challenges as Portugal and Spain, the country has become polarized socially and politically, seeing a record number of MP defections, electoral volatility and the rise of the militant extreme right. The article explains why Greece, the country that relied most extensively on majoritarian institutions, entered the global financial crisis in the most vulnerable position while subsequently faced insurmountable political and institutional obstacles in its management. The article points to the paradox of majoritarianism: in times of economic stress, the first ‘casualties’ are its strongest elements – centrist parties (bi-partisanship) and cabinet stability.

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The predominant fear in capital markets is that of a price spike. Commodity markets differ in that there is a fear of both upward and down jumps, this results in implied volatility curves displaying distinct shapes when compared to equity markets. The use of a novel functional data analysis (FDA) approach, provides a framework to produce and interpret functional objects that characterise the underlying dynamics of oil future options. We use the FDA framework to examine implied volatility, jump risk, and pricing dynamics within crude oil markets. Examining a WTI crude oil sample for the 2007–2013 period, which includes the global financial crisis and the Arab Spring, strong evidence is found of converse jump dynamics during periods of demand and supply side weakness. This is used as a basis for an FDA-derived Merton (1976) jump diffusion optimised delta hedging strategy, which exhibits superior portfolio management results over traditional methods.

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Environmental friendly renewable energy plays an indispensable role in energy industry development. Foreign direct investment (FDI) in advanced renewable energy technology spillover is promising to improve technological capability and promote China’s energy industry performance growth. In this paper, the impacts of FDI renewable energy technology spillover on China’s energy industry performance are analyzed based on theoretical and empirical studies. Firstly, three hypotheses are proposed to illustrate the relationships between FDI renewable energy technology spillover and three energy industry performances including economic, environmental, and innovative performances. To verify the hypotheses, techniques including factor analysis and data envelopment analysis (DEA) are employed to quantify the FDI renewable energy technology spillover and the energy industry performance of China, respectively. Furthermore, a panel data regression model is proposed to measure the impacts of FDI renewable energy technology spillover on China’s energy industry performance. Finally, energy industries of 30 different provinces in China based on the yearbook data from 2005 to 2011 are comparatively analyzed for evaluating the impacts through the empirical research. The results demonstrate that FDI renewable energy technology spillover has positive impacts on China’s energy industry performance. It can also be found that the technology spillover effects are more obvious in economic and technological developed regions. Finally, four suggestions are provided to enhance energy industry performance and promote renewable energy technology spillover in China.

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The two-country monetary model is extended to include a consumption externality with habit persistence. The model is simulated using the artificial economy methodology. The 'puzzles' in the forward market are re-examined. The model is able to account for: (a) the low volatility of the forward discount; (b) the higher volatility of expected forward speculative profit; (c) the even higher volatility of the spot return; (d) the persistence in the forward discount; (e) the martingale behavior of spot exchange rates; and (f) the negative covariance between the expected spot return and expected forward speculative profit. It is unable to account for the forward market bias because the volatility of the expected spot return is too large relative to the volatility of the expected forward speculative profit.

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We extend the literature on regime-dependent volatility in two ways. First, our microstructural model provides a qualitatively new explanation. Second, we test implications of our model using Europe's recent shift to rigidly fixed rates (EMS to EMU). In the model, shocks to order flow induce more volatility under flexible rates because the elasticity of speculative demand is (endogenously) low, leading to pronounced portfolio-balance effects. New data on FF/DM transactions show that order flow had persistent effects on the exchange rate before EMU parities were announced. After announcement, the FF/DM rate was decoupled from order flow, as the model predicts.

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Long-range dependence in volatility is one of the most prominent examples in financial market research involving universal power laws. Its characterization has recently spurred attempts to provide some explanations of the underlying mechanism. This paper contributes to this recent line of research by analyzing a simple market fraction asset pricing model with two types of traders---fundamentalists who trade on the price deviation from estimated fundamental value and trend followers whose conditional mean and variance of the trend are updated through a geometric learning process. Our analysis shows that agent heterogeneity, risk-adjusted trend chasing through the geometric learning process, and the interplay of noisy fundamental and demand processes and the underlying deterministic dynamics can be the source of power-law distributed fluctuations. In particular, the noisy demand plays an important role in the generation of insignificant autocorrelations (ACs) on returns, while the significant decaying AC patterns of the absolute returns and squared returns are more influenced by the noisy fundamental process. A statistical analysis based on Monte Carlo simulations is conducted to characterize the decay rate. Realistic estimates of the power-law decay indices and the (FI)GARCH parameters are presented.

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Evidence on the persistence of innovation sheds light on the nature of the innovation process and can guide appropriate policy development. This paper examines innovation persistence in Ireland and Northern Ireland using complementary quantitative and case-study approaches. Panel data derived from innovation surveys is used, and suggests very different results to previous analyses of innovation persistence primarily based on patents data. Product and process innovation are found to exhibit strong general persistence but we find no evidence that persistence is stronger among highly active innovators. Our quantitative evidence is most strongly consistent with a process of cumulative accumulation at plant level. Our case-studies highlight a number of factors which can either interrupt or stimulate this process including market volatility, plants’ organisational context and regulatory changes. Notably, however, the balance of influences on product and process innovation persistence differs, with product innovation persistence linked more strongly to strategic factors and process changes more often driven by market pressures.
© 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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When attempting to quantify the volatile components of a food isolated by dynamic headspace trapping onto an adsorbent, the analyst has to select the most appropriate compounds to use as standards and at which stage of the analysis to add them. Factors to be borne in mind include the volatility of the standard, the response of the GC detector, and whether to add the standard to the sample or to the adsorbent trap. This chapter considers the issues and describes the application of one chosen method to the quantitation of the volatile components of baked potato.

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The flexible-price two-country monetary model is extended to include a consumption externality with habit persistence. Two methodologies are employed to explore this model's ability to generate volatile and persistent exchange rates. In the first, actual data is used for the exogenous driving processes. In the second, the model is simulated using estimated forcing processes. The theory, in both cases, is capable of explaining the high volatility and persistence of real and nominal exchange rates as well as the high correlation between real and nominal rates. © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.