91 resultados para tipping point

em QUB Research Portal - Research Directory and Institutional Repository for Queen's University Belfast


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Life-history theory suggests that offspring desertion can be an adaptive reproductive strategy, in which parents forgo the costly care of an unprofitable current brood to save resources for future reproduction. In the burying beetle, Nicrophorus vespilloides, parents commonly abandon their offspring to the care of others, resulting in female-only care, male-only care, brood parasitism, and the care of offspring sired by satellite males. Furthermore, when there is biparental care, males routinely desert the brood before larval development is complete, leaving females behind to tend their young. We attempted to understand these patterns of offspring desertion by using laboratory experiments to compare the fitness costs associated with parental care for each sex and the residual reproductive value of the 2 sexes. We also tested whether current brood size and residual reproductive value together predicted the incidence of brood desertion. We found that males and females each sustained fecundity costs as a consequence of caring for larvae and that these costs were of comparable magnitude. Nevertheless, males had greater residual reproductive value than females and were more likely than females to desert experimental broods. Our results can explain why males desert the brood earlier than females in nature and why female-only care is more common than male-only care. They also suggest that the tipping point from brood parasitism or satellite male behavior to communal breeding (and vice versa) depends on the value of the current brood relative to residual reproductive value.

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A new stomatal proxy-based record of CO2 concentrations ([CO2]), based on Betula nana (dwarf birch) leaves from the Hässeldala Port sedimentary sequence in south-eastern Sweden, is presented. The record is of high chronological resolution and spans most of Greenland Interstadial 1 (GI-1a to 1c, Allerød pollen zone), Greenland Stadial 1 (GS-1, Younger Dryas pollen zone) and the very beginning of the Holocene (Preboreal pollen zone). The record clearly demonstrates that i) [CO2] were significantly higher than usually reported for the Last Termination and ii) the overall pattern of CO2 evolution through the studied time period is fairly dynamic, with significant abrupt fluctuations in [CO2] when the climate moved from interstadial to stadial state and vice versa. A new loss-on-ignition chemical record (used here as a proxy for temperature) lends independent support to the Hässeldala Port [CO2] record. The large-amplitude fluctuations around the climate change transitions may indicate unstable climates and that " tipping-point" situations were involved in Last Termination climate evolution. The scenario presented here is in contrast to [CO2] records reconstructed from air bubbles trapped in ice, which indicate lower concentrations and a gradual, linear increase of [CO2] through time. The prevalent explanation for the main climate forcer during the Last Termination being ocean circulation patterns needs to re-examined, and a larger role for atmospheric [CO2] considered.

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The island of Mauritius offers the opportunity to study the poorly understood vegetation response to climate change on a small tropical oceanic island. A high-resolution pollen record from a 10 m long peat core from Kanaka Crater (560 m elevation, Mauritius, Indian Ocean) shows that vegetation shifted from a stable open wet forest Last Glacial state to a stable closed-stratified-tall-forest Holocene state. An ecological threshold was crossed at ∼11.5 cal ka BP, propelling the forest ecosystem into an unstable period lasting ∼4000 years. The shift between the two steady states involves a cascade of four abrupt (<150 years) forest transitions in which different tree species dominated the vegetation for a quasi-stable period of respectively ∼1900, ∼1100 and ∼900 years. We interpret the first forest transition as climate-driven, reflecting the response of a small low topography oceanic island where significant spatial biome migration is impossible. The three subsequent forest transitions are not evidently linked to climate events, and are suggested to be driven by internal forest dynamics. The cascade of four consecutive events of species turnover occurred at a remarkably fast rate compared to changes during the preceding and following periods, and might therefore be considered as a composite tipping point in the ecosystem. We hypothesize that wet gallery forest, spatially and temporally stabilized by the drainage system, served as a long lasting reservoir of biodiversity and facilitated a rapid exchange of species with the montane forests to allow for a rapid cascade of plant associations.

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Purpose
– The purpose of this paper is to explore and explain the change process in Northern Ireland policing through an analysis of temporally bracketed change phases and key change delivery themes ranging from 1996 to 2012.

Design/methodology/approach
– The research approach adopted is process based, longitudinal and multi-method, utilising “temporal bracketing” to determine phases of change and conjunctural reasoning to unravel the systematic factors interacting over time, within the case.

Findings
– The paper identifies and temporally brackets four phases of change: “Tipping point”; “Implementation, Symbolic Modification and Resistance”; “Power Assisted Steering”; and “A Return to Turbulence”, identifies four themes that emerge from RUC-PSNI experience: the role of adaptive leadership; pace and sequencing of change implementation; sufficient resourcing; and the impact of external agents acting as boundary spanners, and comments on the prominence of these themes through the phases. The paper goes on to reflect upon how these phases and themes inform our understanding of organisational change within policing organisations generally and within politically pressurised transition processes.

Originality/value
– The contribution of the paper lies in the documentation of an almost unique organisational case in an environmentally forced change process. In this it contains lessons for other organisations facing similar, if less extreme challenges and presents an example of intense change analysed longitudinally.

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In the fourteenth century the Old World witnessed a series of profound and abrupt changes in the trajectory of long-established historical trends. Trans-continental networks of exchange fractured and an era of economic contraction and demographic decline dawned from which Latin Christendom would not begin to emerge until its voyages of discovery at the end of the fifteenth century. In a major new study of this 'Great Transition', assessment is made of the contributions of commercial recession, war, climate change,and eruption of the Black Death to a far-reaching reversal of fortunes which spared no part of Eurasia. A wealth of new historical, palaeoecological and biological evidence are synthesised, including estimates of national income, reconstructions of past climates. and genetic analysis of DNA extracted from the teeth of plague victims, to provide a fresh account of the creation, collapse and realignment of western Europe's late-medieval commercial economy.

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Wireless enabled portable devices must operate with the highest possible energy efficiency while still maintaining a minimum level and quality of service to meet the user's expectations. The authors analyse the performance of a new pointer-based medium access control protocol that was designed to significantly improve the energy efficiency of user terminals in wireless local area networks. The new protocol, pointer controlled slot allocation and resynchronisation protocol (PCSAR), is based on the existing IEEE 802.11 point coordination function (PCF) standard. PCSAR reduces energy consumption by removing the need for power saving stations to remain awake and listen to the channel. Using OPNET, simulations were performed under symmetric channel loading conditions to compare the performance of PCSAR with the infrastructure power saving mode of IEEE 802.11, PCF-PS. The simulation results demonstrate a significant improvement in energy efficiency without significant reduction in performance when using PCSAR. For a wireless network consisting of an access point and 8 stations in power saving mode, the energy saving was up to 31% while using PCSAR instead of PCF-PS, depending upon frame error rate and load. The results also show that PCSAR offers significantly reduced uplink access delay over PCF-PS while modestly improving uplink throughput.

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Heavy particle collisions, in particular low-energy ion-atom collisions, are amenable to semiclassical JWKB phase integral analysis in the complex plane of the internuclear separation. Analytic continuation in this plane requires due attention to the Stokes phenomenon which parametrizes the physical mechanisms of curve crossing, non-crossing, the hybrid Nikitin model, rotational coupling and predissociation. Complex transition points represent adiabatic degeneracies. In the case of two or more such points, the Stokes constants may only be completely determined by resort to the so-called comparison- equation method involving, in particular, parabolic cylinder functions or Whittaker functions and their strong-coupling asymptotics. In particular, the Nikitin model is a two transition-point one-double-pole problem in each half-plane corresponding to either ingoing or outgoing waves. When the four transition points are closely clustered, new techniques are required to determine Stokes constants. However, such investigations remain incomplete, A model problem is therefore solved exactly for scattering along a one-dimensional z-axis. The energy eigenvalue is b(2)-a(2) and the potential comprises -z(2)/2 (parabolic) and -a(2) + b(2)/2z(2) (centrifugal/centripetal) components. The square of the wavenumber has in the complex z-plane, four zeros each a transition point at z = +/-a +/- ib and has a double pole at z = 0. In cases (a) and (b), a and b are real and unitarity obtains. In case (a) the reflection and transition coefficients are parametrized by exponentials when a(2) + b(2) > 1/2. In case (b) they are parametrized by trigonometrics when a(2) + b(2) <1/2 and total reflection is achievable. In case (c) a and b are complex and in general unitarity is not achieved due to loss of flux to a continuum (O'Rourke and Crothers, 1992 Proc. R. Sec. 438 1). Nevertheless, case (c) coefficients reduce to (a) or (b) under appropriate limiting conditions. Setting z = ht, with h a real constant, an attempt is made to model a two-state collision problem modelled by a pair of coupled first-order impact parameter equations and an appropriate (T) over tilde-tau relation, where (T) over tilde is the Stueckelberg variable and tau is the reduced or scaled time. The attempt fails because (T) over tilde is an odd function of tau, which is unphysical in a real collision problem. However, it is pointed out that by applying the Kummer exponential model to each half-plane (O'Rourke and Crothers 1994 J. Phys. B: At. Mel. Opt. Phys. 27 2497) the current model is in effect extended to a collision problem with four transition points and a double pole in each half-plane. Moreover, the attempt in itself is not a complete failure since it is shown that the result is a perfect diabatic inelastic collision for a traceless Hamiltonian matrix, or at least when both diagonal elements are odd and the off-diagonal elements equal and even.

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A method for investigating the dynamics of atomic magnetic moments in current-carrying magnetic point contacts under bias is presented. This combines the nonequilibrium Green's function (NEGF) method for evaluating the current and the charge density with a description of the dynamics of the magnetization in terms of quasistatic thermally activated transitions between stationary configurations. This method is then implemented in a tight-binding (TB) model with parameters chosen to simulate the main features of the electronic structures of magnetic transition metals. We investigate the domain wall (DW) migration in magnetic monoatomic chains sandwiched between magnetic leads, and for realistic parameters find that collinear arrangement of the magnetic moments of the chain is always favorable. Several stationary magnetic configurations are identified, corresponding to a different number of Bloch walls in the chain and to a different current. The relative stability of these configurations depends on the geometrical details of the junction and on the bias; however, we predict transitions between different configurations with activation barriers of the order of a few tens of meV. Since different magnetic configurations are associated with different resistances, this suggests an intrinsic random telegraph noise at microwave frequencies in the I-V curves of magnetic atomic point contacts at room temperature. Finally, we investigate whether or not current-induced torques are conservative.

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We investigate the interplay between magnetic and structural dynamics in ferromagnetic atomic point contacts. In particular, we look at the effect of the atomic relaxation on the energy barrier for magnetic domain wall migration and, reversely, at the effect of the magnetic state on the mechanical forces and structural relaxation. We observe changes of the barrier height due to the atomic relaxation up to 200%, suggesting a very strong coupling between the structural and the magnetic degrees of freedom. The reverse interplay is weak; i.e., the magnetic state has little effect on the structural relaxation at equilibrium or under nonequilibrium, current-carrying conditions.