Dinoflagellate cyst-based reconstructions of mid to late Holocene winter sea-surface temperature and productivity from an anoxic fjord in the NE Pacific Ocean

Published contemporary dinoflagellate distributional data from the NE Pacific margin and estuarine environments (n = 136) were re-analyzed using Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA) and partial Canonical Correspondence Analysis (pCCA). These analyses illustrated the dominant controls of winter temperature and productivity on the distribution of dinoflagellate cysts in this region. Dinoflagellate cyst-based predictive models for winter temperature and productivity were developed from the contemporary distributional data using the modern analogue technique and applied to subfossil data from two mid to late Holocene (~5500 calendar years before present–present) cores; TUL99B03 and TUL99B11, collected from Effingham Inlet, a 15 km long anoxic fjord located on the southwest coast of Vancouver Island that directly opens to the Pacific Ocean through Barkley Sound. Sedimentation within these basins largely comprises annually deposited laminated couplets, each made up of a winter deposited terrigenous layer and spring to fall deposited diatomaceous layer. The Effingham Inlet dinoflagellate cyst record provides evidence of a mid-Holocene gradual decline in winter SST, ending with the initiation of neoglacial advances in the region by ~3500 cal BP. A reconstructed Late Holocene increase in winter SST was initiated by a weakening of the California Current, which would have resulted in a warmer central gyre and more El Niño-like conditions.