Rule Britannia!: British Stock Market Returns, 1825-1870

This article presents a new series of monthly equity returns for the British stock market for the period 1825-1870. In addition to calculating capital appreciation and dividend yields, the article also estimates the effect of survivorship bias on returns. Three notable findings emerge from this study. First, stock market returns in the 1825-1870 period are broadly similar for Britain and the United States, although the British market is less risky. Second, real returns in the 1825-1870 period are higher than in subsequent epochs of British history. Third, unlike the modern era, dividends are the most important component of returns.

Polymorphims in the Interferon-y/Interleukin 26 Gene Region Contribute to Sex Bias in Susceptibility to Rheumatoid Arthritis

Objective:

To determine whether polymorphisms in the interferon-? (IFN?)/interleukin-26 (IL-26; formerly, AK155) gene cluster contribute to sex-based differential susceptibility to rheumatoid arthritis (RA).

Methods:

Four microsatellite markers, located in a 118-kb interval that contains both the IFN? and IL-26 genes on chromosome 12q15, were typed in 251 patients with RA and 198 unrelated healthy controls (all of whom lived in Northern Ireland) by means of polymerase chain reaction–based fragment analysis.

Results:

Marker D12S2510, which is located 3 kb 3' from the IL-26 gene, was significantly associated with RA in women (corrected P [Pcorr] = 0.008, 2 degrees of freedom [2 df]) but not in men (P = 0.99, 2 df). A 3-marker haplotype, IFNGCA*13;D12S2510*8;D12S2511*9, was inferred that showed significant underrepresentation in women with RA (odds ratio 0.50, 95% confidence interval 0.32–0.78; P = 0.002, Pcorr = 0.03) but not in men with RA.

Conclusion:

Our results demonstrate that common polymorphisms in the IFN?/IL-26 gene region may contribute to sex bias in susceptibility to RA, by distorting the propensity of female carriers versus male carriers to contract this disease. These results conform to our recent observations of a role for this gene cluster in sex-based differential susceptibility to another Th1-type inflammatory disease, multiple sclerosis.

Unlinked vital events in census-based longitudinal studies can bias subsequent analysis

Objective: To examine the potential biases arising from the nonlinkage of census records and vital events in longitudinal studies.
Study Design and Setting: A total of 56,396 deaths of residents of Northern Ireland in the 4 years after the 2001 Census were linked to the 2001 Census records. The characteristics of matched and nonmatched death records were compared using multivariate logistic regression. Subject attributes were as recorded on the death certificate.
Results: In total, 3,392 (6.0%) deaths could not be linked to a census record. Linkage rates were lowest in young adults, males, the unmarried, people living in communal establishments, or living in areas that were more deprived or had recorded low census enumeration. For those aged less than 65 years at census, this linkage would exclude from analysis 20.2% of suicides and 19.7% of deaths by external causes.
Conclusion: The nonlinkage of census and death records is a combination of nonenumeration at census and deficient information about the deceased recorded at the time of death. Unmatched individuals may have been more disadvantaged or socially isolated, and analysis based on the linked data set may therefore show some bias and perhaps understate true social gradients.

'Leaving Nothing to Chance'?: Joint Tenancies, The 'Right' of Survivorship and Unilateral Severance

The joint tenancy with its inherent right of survivorship is the most prevalent form of co-ownership in the common law world today. Most couples will be joint tenants of a family home, while relations (such as siblings) who purchase property together may opt for this arrangement. Inter vivos acquisitions aside, the huge intergenerational transfer of wealth within families on death can result in a joint tenancy, and it may also be a convenient estate planning device. The fact that property automatically vests in the surviving joint tenants on death is the reason why many people choose this form of co-ownership. However, there is one serious disadvantage. A joint tenancy is an inflexible form of landholding where relationships sour or family circumstances change over time, and co-owners want their respective `shares' of the property to pass to someone else on death. Where consensual severance is not possible, one joint tenant can sever unilaterally. The latter mechanism is vital in terms of giving effect to the wishes of the severing joint tenant, especially in situations of discord or a breakdown in relations with their fellow co-owners. However, unilateral severance also has serious implications for the non-severing joint tenant(s) who expected to inherit property through survivorship, and can impact significantly on ownership of the home and other family property. This article looks at unilateral severance as a means of subverting the right of survivorship. The focus is on personal and inter-family relationships, and the various legal issues and policy considerations associated with unilateral severance across the common law jurisdictions of Britain, Ireland, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand. It assesses the various methods of effecting unilateral severance and proposes specific measures, as well as considering novel arguments for preventing unilateral severance based on contractual agreements to the contrary and proprietary estoppel.

Spatial attentional bias as a marker of genetic risk, symptom severity, and stimulant response in ADHD

Attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a heritable childhood onset disorder that is marked by variability at multiple levels including clinical presentation, cognitive profile, and response to stimulant medications. It has been suggested that this variability may reflect etiological differences, particularly, at the level of underlying genetics. This study examined whether an attentional phenotype-spatial attentional bias could serve as a marker of symptom severity, genetic risk, and stimulant response in ADHD. A total of 96 children and adolescents with ADHD were assessed on the Landmark Task, which is a sensitive measure of spatial attentional bias. All children were genotyped for polymorphisms (30 untranslated (UTR) and intron 8 variable number of tandem repeats (VNTRs)) of the dopamine transporter gene (DAT1). Spatial attentional bias correlated with ADHD symptom levels and varied according to DAT1 genotype. Children who were homozygous for the 10-repeat allele of the DAT1 30-UTR VNTR displayed a rightward attentional bias and had higher symptom levels compared to those with the low-risk genotype. A total of 26 of these children who were medication naive performed the Landmark Task at baseline and then again after 6 weeks of stimulant medication. Left-sided inattention (rightward bias) at baseline was associated with an enhanced response to stimulants at 6 weeks. Moreover, changes in spatial bias with stimulant medications, varied as a function of DAT1 genotype. This study suggests an attentional phenotype that relates to symptom severity and genetic risk for ADHD, and may have utility in predicting stimulant response in ADHD.

Investigating the Interhemisphere 14C Offset in the 1st Millennium AD and Assessment of Laboratory Bias and Calibration Errors

Past measurements of the radiocarbon interhemispheric offset have been restricted to relatively young samples because of a lack of older dendrochronologically secure Southern Hemisphere tree-ring chronologies. The Southern Hemisphere calibration data set SHCal04 earlier than AD 950 utilizes a variable interhemispheric offset derived from measured 2nd millennium AD Southern Hemisphere/Northern Hemisphere sample pairs with the assumption of stable Holocene ocean/ atmosphere interactions. This study extends the range of measured interhemispheric offset values with 20 decadal New Zealand kauri and Irish oak sample pairs from 3 selected time intervals in the 1st millennium AD and is part of a larger program to obtain high-precision Southern Hemisphere 14C data continuously back to 200 BC. We found an average interhemispheric offset of 35 ± 6 yr, which although consistent with previously published 2nd millennium AD measurements, is lower than the offset of 55–58 yr utilized in SHCal04. We concur with McCormac et al. (2008) that the IntCal04 measurement for AD 775 may indeed be slightly too old but also suggest the McCormac results appear excessively young for the interval AD 755–785. In addition, we raise the issue of laboratory bias and calibration errors, and encourage all laboratories to check their consistency with appropriate calibration curves and invest more effort into improving the accuracy of those curves.

The development of national in-group bias: English children's attributions of characteristics to English, American and German people

This study investigated the development of national in-group bias in 5-11-year-old children. Three hundred and seven English children were asked to attribute characteristics to their own national group either on its own or in conjunction with attributing characteristics to one of two national out-groups, either Americans or Germans. The importance which the children ascribed to their own national identity in relationship to their other social identities was also assessed. It was found that, with increasing age, there was an increase in the number of negative characteristics attributed to the national in-group, and an increase in the number of positive characteristics attributed to the two out-groups, the net result being an overall reduction in in-group bias across this age range. However, in-group favouritism was still exhibited at all ages. Greater importance was attributed to national identity with increasing age. However, the characteristics attributed to the English in-group did not vary as a function of the comparative out-group which was present while the attributions were being made. The presence of a comparative out-group also did not affect the importance that was ascribed to the national identity. These findings suggest that children are relatively insensitive to the prevailing comparative context when making judgments about national groups.

Subsidy by Ascophyllum nodosum increases growth rate and survivorship of Patella vulgata

Limpets, predominantly Patella vulgata, have been associated with damaged or receding canopies of Ascophyllum nodosum. Although damage results from limpet grazing, the benefits that limpets gain from this behaviour are unclear as A. nodosum is thought to be well defended from grazers by anti-herbivore compounds. In the present study, R vulgata individuals were enclosed at densities between 80 and 320 m(-2) at 2 sites within Strangford Lough, Northern Island. Limpet growth and limpet survival were compared between unsubsidised controls and treatments in which limpet diets were subsidised by fronds of A. nodosum. When subsidised, limpet residual growth rates were significantly higher and mortality was lower than in unsubsidised control treatments. Individual limpets consumed a similar amount of A. nodosum regardless of limpet density. Higher densities of limpets, therefore, consumed more A. nodosum per replicate. The effects of A. nodosum in maintaining limpet densities could resonate through sheltered rocky communities. The importance of a macroalgal subsidy in supporting limpet populations may have been underestimated or overlooked in earlier studies. Therefore, the extensive and productive macroalgal canopies that characterise many sheltered temperate rocky shores could be more sensitive to increased limpet abundances than previously thought.

Resolving questions about bias in real and hypothetical referenda

Despite 10 years of research on behavior in hypothetical referenda, conflict remains in the literature on whether or not the mechanism generates biased responses compared to real referenda, and the nature and source of any such bias. Almost all previous inquiry in respect of this issue has concentrated on bias at the aggregate level. This paper reports a series of three experiments which focuses on bias at the individual level and how this can translate to bias at the aggregate level. The authors argue that only an individual approach to hypothetical bias is consistent with the concept of incentive compatibility. The results of these experiments reflect these previous conflicting findings but go on to show that individual hypothetical bias is a robust result driven by the differing influence of pure self-interest and other-regarding preferences in real and hypothetical situations, rather than by a single behavioral theory such as free riding. In a hypothetical situation these preferences cause yea-saying and non-demand revealing voting. This suggests that investigation of individual respondents in other hypothetical one-shot binary choices may also provide us with insights into aggregate behavior in these situations.