Lean Software Management: BBC Worldwide Case Study

This case study examines how the lean ideas behind the Toyota production system can be applied to software project management. It is a detailed investigation of the performance of a nine-person software development team employed by BBC Worldwide based in London. The data collected in 2009 involved direct observations of the development team, the kanban boards, the daily stand-up meetings, semistructured interviews with a wide variety of staff, and statistical analysis. The evidence shows that over the 12-month period, lead time to deliver software improved by 37%, consistency of delivery rose by 47%, and defects reported by customers fell 24%. The significance of this work is showing that the use of lean methods including visual management, team-based problem solving, smaller batch sizes, and statistical process control can improve software development. It also summarizes key differences between agile and lean approaches to software development. The conclusion is that the performance of the software development team was improved by adopting a lean approach. The faster delivery with a focus on creating the highest value to the customer also reduced both technical and market risks. The drawbacks are that it may not fit well with existing corporate standards.

Oesophageal adenocarcinoma and prior diagnosis of Barrett's oesophagus: a population-based study

Objective: Endoscopic surveillance of Barrett's oesophagus (BO) provides an opportunity to detect early stage oesophageal adenocarcinoma (OAC). We sought to determine the proportion of OAC patients with a prior diagnosis of BO on a population basis and to evaluate the influence of a prior diagnosis of BO on survival, taking into account lead and length time biases.

Design: A retrospective population-based study of all OAC patients in Northern Ireland between 2003 and 2008. A prior BO diagnosis was determined by linkage to the Northern Ireland BO register. Stage distribution at diagnosis and histological grade were compared between patients with and without a prior BO diagnosis. Overall survival, using Cox models, was compared between patients with and without a prior BO diagnosis. The effect of adjusting the survival differences for histological grade and estimates of lead and length time bias was assessed.

Results: There were 716 OAC cases, 52 (7.3%) of whom had a prior BO diagnosis. Patients with a prior BO diagnosis had significantly lower tumour stage (44.2% vs 11.1% had stage 1 or 2 disease; p<0.001), a higher rate of surgical resection (50.0% vs 25.5%; p<0.001) and had a higher proportion of low/intermediate grade tumours (46.2% vs 26.5%; p=0.011). A prior BO diagnosis was associated with significantly better survival (HR for death 0.39; 95% CI 0.27 to 0.58), which was minimally influenced by adjustment for age, sex and tumour grade (adjusted HR 0.44; 95% CI 0.30 to 0.64). Correction for lead time bias attenuated but did not abolish the survival benefit (HR 0.65; 95% CI 0.45 to 0.95) and further adjustment for length time bias had little effect.

Conclusions: The proportion of OAC patients with a prior diagnosis of BO is low; however, prior identification of BO is associated with an improvement in survival in OAC patients.

Cost Estimation of Machined Parts within an Aerospace Supply Chain

A generic, hierarchical, and multifidelity unit cost of acquisition estimating methodology for outside production machined parts is presented. The originality of the work lies with the method’s inherent capability of being able to generate multilevel and multifidelity cost relations for large volumes of parts utilizing process, supply chain costing data, and varying degrees of part design definition information. Estimates can be generated throughout the life cycle of a part using different grades of the combined information available. Considering design development for a given part, additional design definition may be used as it becomes available within the developed method to improve the quality of the resulting estimate. Via a process of analogous classification, parts are classified into groups of increasing similarity using design-based descriptors. A parametric estimating method is then applied to each subgroup of the machined part commodity in the direction of improved classification and using which, a relationship which links design variables to manufacturing cycle time may be generated. A rate cost reflective of the supply chain is then applied to the cycle time estimate for a given part to arrive at an estimate of make cost which is then totalled with the material and treatments cost components respectively to give an overall estimate of unit acquisition cost. Both the rate charge applied and the treatments cost calculated for a given procured part is derived via the use of ratio analysis.

Organisational controls, typologies and time scales of paraglacial gravel-dominated coastal systems

The fundamental controls on the initiation and development of gravel-dominated deposits (beaches and barriers) on paraglacial coasts are particle size and shape, sediment supply, storm wave activity (primarily runup), relative sea-level (RSL) change, and terrestrial basement structure (primarily as it affects accommodation space). This paper examines the stochastic basis for barrier organisation as shown by variation in gravel barrier architecture. We recognise punctuated self-organisation of barrier development that is disrupted by short phases of barrier instability. The latter results from positive feedback causing barrier breakdown when sediment supply is exhausted. We examine published typologies for gravel barriers and advocate a consolidated perspective using rate of RSL change and sediment supply. We also consider the temporal variation in controls on barrier development. These are examined in terms of a simple behavioural model (BARCH) for prograding gravel barrier architecture and its sensitivity to such controls. The nature of macroscale (102–103 years) gravel barrier development, including inherited characteristics that influence barrier genesis, as well as forcing from changing RSL, sediment supply, headland control and barrier inertia, is examined in the context of long-surviving barriers along the southern England coastline.

A Novel Packet Marking Function for Real-Time Interactive MPEG-4 Video Applications in a Differentiated Services Network

The future convergence of voice, video and data applications on the Internet requires that next generation technology provides bandwidth and delay guarantees. Current technology trends are moving towards scalable aggregate-based systems where applications are grouped together and guarantees are provided at the aggregate level only. This solution alone is not enough for interactive video applications with sub-second delay bounds. This paper introduces a novel packet marking scheme that controls the end-to-end delay of an individual flow as it traverses a network enabled to supply aggregate- granularity Quality of Service (QoS). IPv6 Hop-by-Hop extension header fields are used to track the packet delay encountered at each network node and autonomous decisions are made on the best queuing strategy to employ. The results of network simulations are presented and it is shown that when the proposed mechanism is employed the requested delay bound is met with a 20% reduction in resource reservation and no packet loss in the network.

Variability in thermal and UV-B energy fluxes through time and their influence on plant diversity and speciation

Throughout Earth's history there have been temporal and spatial variations in the amount of visible and ultraviolet radiation received by ecosystems. This paper examines if temporal changes in these forms of energy receipt could have influenced the tempo and mode of plant diversity and speciation, focusing in particular upon Cenozoic time-scales. Evidence for changing patterns of plant diversity and speciation apparent in various fossil records and molecular phylogenies are considered alongside calculated changes in thermal and solar ultraviolet energy (specifically UV-B) over the past 50 Myr. We suggest that changes in thermal energy influx (amount and variability) affected the tempo of evolution through its influence upon community dynamics (e.g. population size, diversity, turnover, extinctions). It was not only the amount of thermal energy but also variability in its flux that may have influenced these processes, and ultimately the rate of diversification. We suggest that variations in UV-B would have influenced the mode and tempo of speciation through changes to genome stability during intervals of elevated UV-B. We argue, therefore, that although variability in thermal energy and UV-B fluxes through time may lead to the same end-point (changing the rate of diversification), the processes responsible are very different and both need to be considered when linking evolutionary processes to energy flux.

Experiences with mephedrone pre- and post-legislative controls: Perceptions of safety and sources of supply

Background: Drug scenes within several countries have changed in recent years to incorporate a range of licit psychoactive products, collectively known as “legal highs.” Hundreds of different legal high products have been described in the literature. Many of these products contain synthetic stimulants that allegedly
“mirror” the effects of some illicit drugs. In 2009–2010, growing concern by the UK and Irish governments focused on mephedrone, a synthetic stimulant that had become embedded within several drug scenes in Britain and Ireland. In April 2010, mephedrone and related cathinone derivatives were banned under
the UK’s Misuse of Drugs Act 1971. Setting aside “worse case scenarios” that have been portrayed by UK and Irish media, little is known about mephedrone use from the consumer’s perspective. The purpose of this paper was to (1) explore respondents’ experiences with mephedrone, (2) examine users’ perceptions
about the safety of mephedrone, and primarily to (3) examine sources of mephedrone supply during the pre- and post-ban periods.
Methods: Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 23 adults who had used mephedrone during 2009–2010. Data collection occurred in May and June 2010, following the ban on mephedrone. A total of 20/23 respondents had used mephedrone during the post-ban period, and the vast majority had prior
experience with ecstasy or cocaine. Respondents’ ages ranged from 19 to 51, approximately half of the sample were female and the majority (19 of 23) were employed in full- or part-time work.
Results: Most respondents reported positive experiences with mephedrone, and for some, the substance emerged as a drug of choice. None of the respondents reported that the once-legal status of mephedrone implied that it was safe to use. Very few respondents reported purchasing mephedrone from street-based
or on-line headshops during the pre-ban period, and these decisions were guided in part by respondents’ attempts to avoid “drug user” identities. Most respondents purchased or obtained mephedrone from friends or dealers, and mephedrone was widely available during the 10-week period following the ban. Respondents reported a greater reliance on dealers and a change in mephedrone packaging following the criminalisation of mephedrone.
Conclusion: The findings are discussed in the context of what appears to be a rapidly changing mephedrone market. We discuss the possible implications of criminalising mephedrone, including the potential displacement effects and the development of an illicit market.

Dynamical instability in surface permeability characteristics of building sandstones in response to salt accumulation over time

This paper explores how the surface permeability of sandstone blocks changes over time in response to repeated salt weathering cycles. Surface permeability controls the amount of moisture and dissolved salt that can penetrate in and facilitate decay. Connected pores permit the movement of moisture (and hence soluble salts) into the stone interior, and where areas are more or less permeable soluble salts may migrate along preferred pathways at differential rates. Previous research has shown that salts can accumulate in the near-surface zone and lead to partial pore blocking which influences subsequent moisture ingress and causes rapid salt accumulation in the near-surface zone.

Two parallel salt weathering simulations were carried out on blocks of Peakmoor Sandstone of different volumes. Blocks were removed from simulations after 2, 5, 10, 20 and 60 cycles. Permeability measurements were taken for these blocks at a resolution of 20 mm, providing a grid of 100 permeability values for each surface. The geostatistical technique of ordinary kriging was applied to the data to produce a smoothed interpolation of permeability for these surfaces, and hence improve understanding of the evolution of permeability over time in response to repeated salt weathering cycles.

Results illustrate the different responses of the sandstone blocks of different volumes to repeated salt weathering cycles. In both cases, after an initial subtle decline in the permeability (reflecting pore blocking), the permeability starts to increase — reflected in a rise in mean, maximum and minimum values. However, between 10 and 20 cycles, there is a jump in the mean and range permeability of the group A block surfaces coinciding with the onset of meaningful debris release. After 60 cycles, the range of permeability in the group A block surface had increased markedly, suggesting the development of a secondary permeability. The concept of dynamic instability and divergent behaviour is applied at the scale of a single block surface, with initial small-scale differences across a surface having larger scale consequences as weathering progresses.

After cycle 10, group B blocks show a much smaller increase in mean permeability, and the range stays relatively steady — this may be explained by the capillary conditions set up by the smaller volume of the stone, allowing salts to migrate to the ‘back’ of the blocks and effectively relieving stress at the ‘front’ face.

Soil resource supply influences faunal size-specific distributions in natural food webs

The large range of body-mass values of soil organisms provides a tool to assess the ecological organization of soil communities. The goal of this paper is to identify graphical and quantitative indicators of soil community composition and ecosystem functioning, and to illustrate their application to real soil food webs. The relationships between log-transformed mass and abundance of soil organisms in 20 Dutch meadows and heathlands were investigated. Using principles of allometry, maximal use can be made of ecological theory to build and explain food webs. The aggregate contribution of small invertebrates such as nematodes to the entire community is high under low soil phosphorus content and causes shifts in the mass-abundance relationships and in the trophic structures. We show for the first time that the average of the trophic link lengths is a reliable predictor for assessing soil fertility responses. Ordered trophic link pairs suggest a self-organizing structure of food webs according to resource availability and can predict environmental shifts in ecologically meaningful ways.

Density-potential mapping in time-dependent density-functional theory

The key questions of uniqueness and existence in time-dependent density-functional theory are usually formulated only for potentials and densities that are analytic in time. Simple examples, standard in quantum mechanics, lead, however, to nonanalyticities. We reformulate these questions in terms of a nonlinear Schroedinger equation with a potential that depends nonlocally on the wave function.

Development and validation of dry reagent time-resolved fluoroimmuno assays for zeranol and alpha-zearalenol to assist in distinguishing zeranol abuse from Fusarium spp. toxin contamination in bovine urine

Zeranol, an oestrogenic growth promoter in food animals, is banned within the European Union (EU). However, commercially available immunoassay kits for zeranol cross-react with toxins formed by naturally occurring Fusarium spp. fungi, leading to false-positive screening results. This paper describes the validation of a specificity enhanced, rapid dry reagent time-resolved fluoroimmunoassay (TR-FIA) for zeranol (recovery 99%, limit of detection 1.3 ng ml(-1)) demonstrating that up to 150 ng ml(-1) of Fusarium spp. toxins in urine do not lead to false-positive results. This assay will assist EU Member States to implement Council Directive 961 23\EC, which requires states to monitor for potential abuses of zeranol. A similar TR-FIA for the Fusarium spp. toxin a-zearalenol, using the same sample extract, is also described (recovery 68%, limit of detection 5.6 ng ml(-1)). Only the addition of diluted sample extract is required to perform these dry-reagent TR-FIAs, the results being available within 1 h of extract application. The EU-funded project 'Natural Zeranol' (FAIR5-CT97-3443) will use these fluoroimmunoassays to screen bovine urine in four Member States to gather data on the seasonality of Fusarium spp. toxin contamination of urine and the incidence of zeranol screening test positives.

Epigenetics:Time to translate into transplantation

Substantial progress has been made in identifying genetic loci associated with multifactorial disorders, including variants that seem to impact outcomes following solid organ transplantation. Despite these advances, much of the heritability and susceptibility to chronic disease processes remains unexplained. Epigenetic modifications may exert their effect independently or complementary to genetic variants. Epigenetic modifications can change gene expression without altering the DNA sequence. These modifications are dynamic, potentially heritable, and can be induced by environmental stimuli or drugs. The impact of epigenetic phenomena on the outcomes of organ transplantation is currently poorly understood. Epigenetic modifications can occur during periods of illness; these may persist and potentially influence allograft outcomes. Epigenetic mechanisms influence the activation, proliferation, and differentiation of the immune cells involved in allograft rejection. The donor's epigenome may also impact transplant survival, and initial research has demonstrated that peritransplant conditions induce rapid epigenetic modification within the allograft. Further research will help to define the importance of epigenetic modifications in transplantation. This will potentially lead to the identification of useful biomarkers and the development of novel pharmacotherapies. This review explores the nature of epigenetic modification in disease and the emerging evidence for epigenetic influences on allograft survival.

Occurrence and Partitioning of Cadmium, Arsenic and Lead in Mine Impacted Paddy Rice: Hunan, China

Paddy rice has been likened to nictiana sp in its ability to scavenge cadmium (Cd) from soil, whereas arsenic (As) accumulation is commonly an order of magnitude higher than in other cereal crops. In areas such as those found in parts of Hunan province in south central China, base-metal mining activities and rice farming coexist. Therefore there is a considerable likelihood that lead (Pb), in addition to Cd and As, will accumulate in rice grown in parts of this region above levels suitable for human consumption. To test this hypothesis, a widespread provincial survey of rice from mine spoilt paddies (n = 100), in addition to a follow-up market grain survey (n = 122) conducted in mine impacted areas was undertaken to determine the safety of local rice supply networks. Furthermore, a specific Cd, As, and Pb biogeochemical survey of paddy soil and rice was conducted within southern China, targeting sites impacted by mining of varying intensities to calibrate rice metal(loid) transfer models and transfer factors that can be used to predict tissue loading. Results revealed a number of highly significant correlations between shoot, husk, bran, and endosperm rice tissue fractions and that rice from mining areas was enriched in Cd, As, and Pb. Sixty-five, 50, and 34% of all the mine-impacted field rice was predicted to fail national food standards for Cd, As, and Pb, respectively. Although, not as elevated as the grains from the mine-impacted field survey, it was demonstrated that metal(loid) tainted rice was entering food supply chains intended for direct human consumption.

Robust food supply supply chains:An integrated framework for vulnerability assessment and disturbance management

The operation of supply chains (SCs) has for many years been focused on efficiency, leanness and responsiveness. This has resulted in reduced slack in operations, compressed cycle times, increased productivity and minimised inventory levels along the SC. Combined with tight tolerance settings for the realisation of logistics and production processes, this has led to SC performances that are frequently not robust. SCs are becoming increasingly vulnerable to disturbances, which can decrease the competitive power of the entire chain in the market. Moreover, in the case of food SCs non-robust performances may ultimately result in empty shelves in grocery stores and supermarkets.
The overall objective of this research is to contribute to Supply Chain Management (SCM) theory by developing a structured approach to assess SC vulnerability, so that robust performances of food SCs can be assured. We also aim to help companies in the food industry to evaluate their current state of vulnerability, and to improve their performance robustness through a better understanding of vulnerability issues. The following research questions (RQs) stem from these objectives:
RQ1: What are the main research challenges related to (food) SC robustness?
RQ2: What are the main elements that have to be considered in the design of robust SCs and what are the relationships between these elements?
RQ3: What is the relationship between the contextual factors of food SCs and the use of disturbance management principles?
RQ4: How to systematically assess the impact of disturbances in (food) SC processes on the robustness of (food) SC performances?
To answer these RQs we used different methodologies, both qualitative and quantitative. For each question, we conducted a literature survey to identify gaps in existing research and define the state of the art of knowledge on the related topics. For the second and third RQ, we conducted both exploration and testing on selected case studies. Finally, to obtain more detailed answers to the fourth question, we used simulation modelling and scenario analysis for vulnerability assessment.
Main findings are summarised as follows.
Based on an extensive literature review, we answered RQ1. The main research challenges were related to the need to define SC robustness more precisely, to identify and classify disturbances and their causes in the context of the specific characteristics of SCs and to make a systematic overview of (re)design strategies that may improve SC robustness. Also, we found that it is useful to be able to discriminate between varying degrees of SC vulnerability and to find a measure that quantifies the extent to which a company or SC shows robust performances when exposed to disturbances.
To address RQ2, we define SC robustness as the degree to which a SC shows an acceptable performance in (each of) its Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) during and after an unexpected event that caused a disturbance in one or more logistics processes. Based on the SCM literature we identified the main elements needed to achieve robust performances and structured them together to form a conceptual framework for the design of robust SCs. We then explained the logic of the framework and elaborate on each of its main elements: the SC scenario, SC disturbances, SC performance, sources of food SC vulnerability, and redesign principles and strategies.
Based on three case studies, we answered RQ3. Our major findings show that the contextual factors have a consistent relationship to Disturbance Management Principles (DMPs). The product and SC environment characteristics are contextual factors that are hard to change and these characteristics initiate the use of specific DMPs as well as constrain the use of potential response actions. The process and the SC network characteristics are contextual factors that are easier to change, and they are affected by the use of the DMPs. We also found a notable relationship between the type of DMP likely to be used and the particular combination of contextual factors present in the observed SC.
To address RQ4, we presented a new method for vulnerability assessments, the VULA method. The VULA method helps to identify how much a company is underperforming on a specific Key Performance Indicator (KPI) in the case of a disturbance, how often this would happen and how long it would last. It ultimately informs the decision maker about whether process redesign is needed and what kind of redesign strategies should be used in order to increase the SC’s robustness. The VULA method is demonstrated in the context of a meat SC using discrete-event simulation. The case findings show that performance robustness can be assessed for any KPI using the VULA method.
To sum-up the project, all findings were incorporated within an integrated framework for designing robust SCs. The integrated framework consists of the following steps: 1) Description of the SC scenario and identification of its specific contextual factors; 2) Identification of disturbances that may affect KPIs; 3) Definition of the relevant KPIs and identification of the main disturbances through assessment of the SC performance robustness (i.e. application of the VULA method); 4) Identification of the sources of vulnerability that may (strongly) affect the robustness of performances and eventually increase the vulnerability of the SC; 5) Identification of appropriate preventive or disturbance impact reductive redesign strategies; 6) Alteration of SC scenario elements as required by the selected redesign strategies and repeat VULA method for KPIs, as defined in Step 3.
Contributions of this research are listed as follows. First, we have identified emerging research areas - SC robustness, and its counterpart, vulnerability. Second, we have developed a definition of SC robustness, operationalized it, and identified and structured the relevant elements for the design of robust SCs in the form of a research framework. With this research framework, we contribute to a better understanding of the concepts of vulnerability and robustness and related issues in food SCs. Third, we identified the relationship between contextual factors of food SCs and specific DMPs used to maintain robust SC performances: characteristics of the product and the SC environment influence the selection and use of DMPs; processes and SC networks are influenced by DMPs. Fourth, we developed specific metrics for vulnerability assessments, which serve as a basis of a VULA method. The VULA method investigates different measures of the variability of both the duration of impacts from disturbances and the fluctuations in their magnitude.
With this project, we also hope to have delivered practical insights into food SC vulnerability. First, the integrated framework for the design of robust SCs can be used to guide food companies in successful disturbance management. Second, empirical findings from case studies lead to the identification of changeable characteristics of SCs that can serve as a basis for assessing where to focus efforts to manage disturbances. Third, the VULA method can help top management to get more reliable information about the “health” of the company.
The two most important research opportunities are: First, there is a need to extend and validate our findings related to the research framework and contextual factors through further case studies related to other types of (food) products and other types of SCs. Second, there is a need to further develop and test the VULA method, e.g.: to use other indicators and statistical measures for disturbance detection and SC improvement; to define the most appropriate KPI to represent the robustness of a complete SC. We hope this thesis invites other researchers to pick up these challenges and help us further improve the robustness of (food) SCs.

Poisoning from lead gunshot: still a threat to wild waterbirds in Britain

Lead is a highly toxic metal known to be an important cause of morbidity and mortality in waterbirds and terrestrial birds worldwide. The risk to birds of poisoning from lead has resulted in the introduction of legislation in many countries, such as UK restrictions on the use of lead in angling weights and lead gunshot. In this study, we examined data on current and historical trends in lead poisoning in British waterbirds and related these to the introduction of legislation restricting the use of lead. Our results indicate that lead poisoning has continued to affect a wide range of British waterbirds long after legal restrictions were introduced. Elevated levels of lead (i.e. > 20.0 mu g/dL) were found in the blood of 34 % (n = 285) of waterbirds tested at four sites in Britain during the 2010/2011 winter and accounted for the deaths of at least 10.6 % (n = 2,365) of waterbirds recovered across Britain between 1971 and 2010 and 8.1 % (n = 1,051) between 2000 and 2010, with lead gunshot being the most likely source of poisoning. The proportion of birds dying from lead poisoning in England did not vary significantly after the introduction of legislation, accounting for 13.7 % of non-infectious causes of death between 1971 and 1987 (n = 204), 20.8 % (n = 360) between 1988 and 1999 and 11.8 % (n = 423) between 2000 and 2010, despite a significant change in lead-related mortality in mute swans found during the same time period, 25 % (n = 12) between 1971 and 1987, 4.6 % (n = 65) between 1988 and 1999 and 2 % (n = 100) between 2000 and 2010. Existing legislation needs review and extension to ensure the delivery of international commitments and a broad-scale transition to the use of non-toxic shot and angling materials in all environments.