Panel Stationarity Test with Structural Breaks

In this paper, we extend the heterogeneous panel data stationarity test of Hadri [Econometrics Journal, Vol. 3 (2000) pp. 148–161] to the cases where breaks are taken into account. Four models with different patterns of breaks under the null hypothesis are specified. Two of the models have been already proposed by Carrion-i-Silvestre et al.[Econometrics Journal,Vol. 8 (2005) pp. 159–175]. The moments of the statistics corresponding to the four models are derived in closed form via characteristic functions.We also provide the exact moments of a modified statistic that do not asymptotically depend on the location of the break point under the null hypothesis. The cases where the break point is unknown are also considered. For the model with breaks in the level and no time trend and for the model with breaks in the level and in the time trend, Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. [Econometrics Journal, Vol. 8 (2005) pp. 159–175]showed that the number of breaks and their positions may be allowed to differ acrossindividuals for cases with known and unknown breaks. Their results can easily be extended to the proposed modified statistic. The asymptotic distributions of all the statistics proposed are derived under the null hypothesis and are shown to be normally distributed. We show by simulations that our suggested tests have in general good performance in finite samples except the modified test. In an empirical application to the consumer prices of 22 OECD countries during the period from 1953 to 2003, we found evidence of stationarity once a structural break and cross-sectional dependence are accommodated.

ARE OECD MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES TREND STATIONARY? EVIDENCE FROM PANEL STATIONARITY TESTS ALLOWING FOR A STRUCTURAL BREAK AND CROSS-SECTIONAL DEPENDENCE

This article applies the panel stationarity test with a break proposed by Hadri and Rao (2008) to examine whether 14 macroeconomic variables of OECD countries can be best represented as random walk or stationary fluctuations around a deterministic trend. In contrast to previous studies, based essentially on visual inspection of the break type or just applying the most general break model, we use a model selection procedure based on BIC. We do this for each time series so that heterogeneous break models are allowed for in the panel. Our results suggest, overwhelmingly, that if we account for a structural break, cross-sectional dependence and choose the break models to be congruent with the data, then the null of stationarity cannot be rejected for all the 14 macroeconomic variables examined in this article. This is in sharp contrast with the results obtained by Hurlin (2004), using the same data but a different methodology.

Modified stiffened panel analysis methods for laser beam and friction stir welded aircraft panels

The introduction of advanced welding methods as an alternative joining process to riveting in the manufacture of primary aircraft structure has the potential to realize reductions in both manufacturing costs and structural weight. Current design and analysis methods for aircraft panels have been developed and validated for riveted fabrication. For welded panels, considering the buckling collapse design philosophy of aircraft stiffened panels, strength prediction methods considering welding process effects for both local-buckling and post-buckling behaviours must be developed and validated. This article reports on the work undertaken to develop analysis methods for the crippling failure of stiffened panels fabricated using laser beam and friction stir welding. The work assesses modifications to conventional analysis methods and finite-element analysis methods for strength prediction. The analysis work is validated experimentally with welded single stiffener crippling specimens. The experimental programme has demonstrated the potential static strength of laser beam and friction stir welded sheet-stiffener joints for post-buckling panel applications. The work undertaken has demonstrated that the crippling behaviour of welded stiffened panels may be analysed considering standard-buckling behaviour. However, stiffened panel buckling analysis procedures must be altered to account for the weld joint geometry and process altered material properties. © IMechE 2006.

The Characterization of Friction Stir Welding Process Effects on Stiffened Panel Buckling Performance

The introduction of advanced welding methods as an alternative joining process to riveting in the manufacture of primary aircraft structure has the potential to realize reductions in both manufacturing costs and structural weight. However, welding processes can introduce undesirable residual stresses and distortions in the final fabricated components, as well as localized loss of mechanical properties at the weld joints. The aim of this research is to determine and characterize the key process effects of advanced welding assembly methods on stiffened panel static strength performance. This in-depth understanding of the relationships between welding process effects and buckling and collapse strength is required to achieve manufacturing cost reductions without introducing structural analysis uncertainties and hence conservative over designed welded panels. This current work is focused at the sub-component level and examines the static strength of friction stir welded multi stiffener panels. The undertaken experimental and computational studies have demonstrated that local skin buckling is predominantly influenced by the magnitude of welding induced residual stresses and associated geometric distortions, whereas panel collapse behavior is sensitive to the lateral width of the physically joined skin and stiffener flange material, the strength of material in the Heat Affected Zone as well as the magnitude of the welding induced residual stresses. Copyright © 2006 by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc. All rights reserved.


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Stiffened panel stability behaviour and performance gains with plate prismatic sub-stiffening

To increase the structural efficiency of integrally machined aluminium alloy stiffened panels, it is plausible to introduce plate sub-stiffening to increase the local stability and thus panel static strength performance. Reported herein is the experimental validation of prismatic sub-stiffening, and the computational verification of such concepts within larger recurring structure. The experimental work demonstrates the potential to 'control' plate buckling modes. For the tested sub-stiffening design, an initial plate buckling performance gain of +89% over an equivalent mass design was measured. The numerical simulations, modelling the tested sub-stiffening design, demonstrate equivalent behaviour and performance gains (+66%) within larger structures consisting of recurring panels. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Non-Prismatic Sub-Stiffening for Stiffened Panel Plates — Stability Behaviour and Performance Gains

Previous work has demonstrated the potential to introduce plate element sub-stiffening to increase the local stability and thus static strength performance of integrally machined aluminium alloy stiffened panels. The introduction of plate element prismatic sub-stiffening modifies local plate buckling behaviour and within realistic design constraints, may produce sizable performance gains with equivalent mass designs. This article examines through experimental and computational analysis the potential of non-prismatic sub-stiffening for tailoring local plate stability performance. Using non-prismatic sub-stiffening, the experimental work demonstrates potential initial buckling performance gains with equivalent mass designs (+185%), and computationally, potential mass savings with equivalent static strength performance designs (-9.4%). (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Aerospace Stiffened Panel Initial Sizing With Novel Skin Sub-Stiffening Features

The introduction of skin sub-stiffening features has the potential to modify the local stability and fatigue crack growth performance of stiffened panels. Proposed herein is a method to enable initial static strength sizing of panels with such skin sub-stiffening features. The method uses bespoke skin buckling coefficients, automatically generated by Finite Element analysis and thus limits the modification to the conventional aerospace panel initial sizing process. The approach is demonstrated herein and validated for prismatic sub-stiffening features. Moreover, examination of the generated buckling coefficient data illustrates the influence of skin sub-stiffening on buckling behavior, with static strength increases typically corresponding to a reduction in the number of initial skin longitudinal buckle half-waves.

A preliminary structural design procedure for laser beam welded airframe stiffened panels

Initial sizing procedures for aircraft stiffened panels that include the influence of welding fabrication residual process effects are missing. Herein, experimental and Finite Element analyses are coupled to generate knowledge to formulate an accurate and computationally efficient sizing procedure which will enable designers to routinely consider panel fabrication, via welding, accounting for the complex distortions and stresses induced by this manufacturing process. Validating experimental results demonstrate the need to consider welding induced material property degradation, residual stresses and distortions, as these can reduce static strength performance. However, results from fuselage and wing trade-studies, using the validated sizing procedure, establish that these potential reductions in strength performance may be overcome through local geometric tailoring during initial sizing, negating any weight penalty for the majority of design scenarios.

Testing the Prebish-Singer hypothesis using second-generation panel data stationarity tests with a break

In this paper, we test the Prebish-Singer (PS) hypothesis, which states that real commodity prices decline in the long run, using two recent powerful panel data stationarity tests accounting for cross-sectional dependence and a structural break. We find that the hypothesis cannot be rejected for most commodities other than oil.

Impact of composite manufacturing constraints on aerospace stiffened panel design

This paper reports on a design study assessing the impact of laminate manufacturing constraints on the structural performance and weight of composite stiffened panels. The study demonstrates that maximizing ply continuity results in weight penalties, while various geometric constraints related to manufacture and repair can be accommodated without significant weight penalties, potentially generating robust flexible designs.

Testing the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis since 1650: Evidence from panel techniques that allow for multiple breaks

In this paper, we re-examine two important aspects of the dynamics of relative primary commodity prices, namely the secular trend and the short run volatility. To do so, we employ 25 series, some of them starting as far back as 1650 and powerful panel data stationarity tests that allow for endogenous multiple structural breaks. Results show that all the series are stationary after allowing for endogenous multiple breaks. Test results on the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis, which states that relative commodity prices follow a downward secular trend, are mixed but with a majority of series showing negative trends. We also make a first attempt at identifying the potential drivers of the structural breaks. We end by investigating the dynamics of the volatility of the 25 relative primary commodity prices also allowing for endogenous multiple breaks. We describe the often time-varying volatility in commodity prices and show that it has increased in recent years.

Investigation of Aircraft Panel Deformations during Riveting Process

In collaboration with Airbus-UK, the dimensional growth of small panels while being riveted with stiffeners is investigated. The stiffeners have been fastened to the panels with rivets and it has been observed that during this operation the panels expand in the longitudinal and transverse directions. It has been observed that the growth is variable and the challenge is to control the riveting process to minimize this variability. In this investigation, the assembly of the small panels and longitudinal stiffeners has been simulated using low and high fidelity nonlinear finite element models. The models have been validated against a limited set of experimental measurements; it was found that more accurate predictions of the riveting process are achieved using high fidelity explicit finite element models. Furthermore, through a series of numerical simulations and probabilistic analyses, the manufacturing process control parameters that influence panel growth have been identified. Alternative fastening approaches were examined and it was found that dimensional growth can be controlled by changing the design of the dies used for forming the rivets.

Impact of composite ply continuity constraints on aerospace stiffened panel design

Considering the development of aerospace composite components, designing for reduced manufacturing layup cost and structural complexity is increasingly important. While the advantage of composite materials is the ability to tailor designs to various structural loads for minimum mass, the challenge is obtaining a design that is manufacturable and minimizes local ply incompatibility. The focus of the presented research is understanding how the relationships between mass, manufacturability and design complexity, under realistic loads and design requirements, can be affected by enforcing ply continuity in the design process. Presented are a series of sizing case studies on an upper wing cover, designed using conventional analyses and the tabular laminate design process. Introducing skin ply continuity constraints can generate skin designs with minimal ply discontinuities, fewer ply drops and larger ply areas than designs not constrained for continuity. However, the reduced design freedom associated with the addition of these constraints results in a weight penalty over the total wing cover. Perhaps more interestingly, when considering manual hand layup the reduced design complexity is not translated into a reduced recurring manufacturing cost. In contrast, heavier wing cover designs appear to take more time to layup regardless of the laminate design complexity. © 2012 AIAA.

Utilisation of Glass Reinforced Plastics as Cost Effective Alternative to Traditional Materials in Access Panel Design for Waste Water Treatment Plants

Composites are fast becoming a cost effective option when considering the design of engineering structures in a broad range of applications. If the strength to weight benefits of these material systems can be exploited and challenges in developing lower cost manufacturing methods overcome, then the advanced composite systems will play a bigger role in the diverse range of sectors outside the aerospace industry where they have been used for decades.
This paper presents physical testing results that showcase the advantages of GRP (Glass Reinforced Plastics), such as the ability to endure loading with minimal deformation. The testing involved is a cross comparison of GRP grating vs. GRP encapsulated foam core. Resulting data gained within this paper will then be coupled with design optimization (utilising model simulation) to bring forward layup alterations to meet the specified load classifications involved.