Statistical Monitoring of Dynamic Multivariate Processes: Part II: Identifying Fault Magnitude and Signature

This paper builds on work presented in the first paper, Part 1 [1] and is of equal significance. The paper proposes a novel compensation method to preserve the integrity of step-fault signatures prevalent in various processes that can be masked during the removal of both auto- and cross correlation. Using industrial data, the paper demonstrates the benefit of the proposed method, which is applicable to chemical, electrical, and mechanical process monitoring. This paper, (and Part 1 [1]), has led to further work supported by EPSRC grant GR/S84354/01 involving kernel PCA methods.

Testing the timing of radiocarbon-dated events between proxy archives

For interpreting past changes on a regional or global scale, the timings of proxy-inferred events are usually aligned with data from other locations. However, too often chronological uncertainties are ignored in proxy diagrams and multisite comparisons, making it possible for researchers to fall into the trap of sucking separate events into one illusionary event (or vice versa). Here we largely solve this "suck in and smear syndrome" for radiocarbon (14C) dated sequences. In a Bayesian framework, millions of plausible age-models are constructed to quantify the chronological uncertainties within and between proxy archives. We test the technique on replicated high-resolution 14C-dated peat cores deposited during the "Little Ice Age" (c. AD 1400-1900), a period characterized by abrupt climate changes and severe 14C calibration problems. Owing to internal variability in proxy data and uncertainties in age-models, these (and possibly many more) archives are not consistent in recording decadal climate change. Through explicit statistical tests of palaeoenvironmental hypotheses, we can move forward to systematic interpretations of proxy data. However, chronological uncertainties of non-annually resolved palaeoclimate records are too large for answering decadal timescale questions.

Stable hydrogen isotope ratios of lignin methoxyl groups as a palaeoclimate proxy

• Stable isotope ratios of organic compounds are valuable tools for determining the geographical origin, identity, authenticity or history of samples from a vast range of sources such as sediments, plants and animals, including humans. • Hydrogen isotope ratios (d2H values) of methoxyl groups in lignin from wood of trees grown in different geographical areas were measured using compound-specificpyrolysis isotope ratio mass spectrometry analysis. • Lignin methoxyl groups were depleted in 2H relative to both meteoric water andwhole wood. A high correlation (r2=0.91) was observed between the d2 H valuesof the methoxyl groups and meteoric water, with a relatively uniform fractionation of –216±19 recorded with respect to meteoric water over a range of d2H values from –110 in northern Norway to + 20‰ in Yemen. Thus, woods from northernlatitudes can be clearly distinguished from those from tropical regions. By contrast, the d2H values of bulk wood were only relatively poorly correlated (r 2 = 0.47) with those of meteoric water. • Measurement of the d 2H values of lignin methoxyl groups is potentially a powerful tool that could be of use not only in the constraint of the geographical origin of lignified material but also in paleoclimate, food authenticity and forensic investigations.

A multi-proxy palaeoenvironmental investigation of the findspot of an Iron Age bog body from Oldcroghan, Co. Offaly, Ireland

In 2003, the remains of an Early Iron Age bog body, known as ‘Oldcroghan Man’, were recovered during the cutting of a drainage ditch in a bog in the Irish Midlands. Only some fingernails and a withe fragment remained undisturbed in situ in the drain face, providing the sole evidence for the original position of the body. A detailed reconstruction of the depositional context of the body has been undertaken through multi-proxy analyses of a peat monolith collected at the findspot. The palynological record shows that the surrounding area was the focus of intensive human activity during the Later Bronze Age, but was largely abandoned during the Bronze Age–Iron transition in the mid-first millennium BC. In the mid-4th century BC, a bog pool developed at the site, evidenced in the stratigraphic, plant macrofossil, testate amoebae and coleopteran records. Plant macrofossil and pollen analysis of peat samples associated with the fingernails suggests that the body was deposited in this pool most likely during the 3rd century BC. The absence of carrion beetle fauna points to complete submergence of the body within the pool. Deposition occurred shortly before or around the time that the surrounding area again became the focus of woodland clearance, as seen in the extended pollen record from the peat monolith. This period corresponds to the Early Iron Age in Ireland, during which renewed cultural connections with Britain and continental Europe can be seen in the archaeological record and widespread forest clearance is recorded in pollen records from across Ireland. The palaeoenvironmental results indicate, therefore, that the demise of Oldcroghan Man took place at a pivotal time of socio-economic and perhaps political change.