Identification of Microturbine Model for Long-term Dynamic Analysis of Distribution Networks

As one of the most successfully commercialized distributed energy resources, the long-term effects of microturbines (MTs) on the distribution network has not been fully investigated due to the complex thermo-fluid-mechanical energy conversion processes. This is further complicated by the fact that the parameter and internal data of MTs are not always available to the electric utility, due to different ownerships and confidentiality concerns. To address this issue, a general modeling approach for MTs is proposed in this paper, which allows for the long-term simulation of the distribution network with multiple MTs. First, the feasibility of deriving a simplified MT model for long-term dynamic analysis of the distribution network is discussed, based on the physical understanding of dynamic processes that occurred within MTs. Then a three-stage identification method is developed in order to obtain a piecewise MT model and predict electro-mechanical system behaviors with saturation. Next, assisted with the electric power flow calculation tool, a fast simulation methodology is proposed to evaluate the long-term impact of multiple MTs on the distribution network. Finally, the model is verified by using Capstone C30 microturbine experiments, and further applied to the dynamic simulation of a modified IEEE 37-node test feeder with promising results.

Comment on “Mathematical and physical aspects of Kappa velocity distribution” [ Phys. Plasmas 14, 110702 (2007) ]

A recent paper [L.-N. Hau and W.-Z. Fu, Phys. Plasmas 14, 110702 (2007)] deals with certain mathematical and physical properties of the kappa distribution. We comment on the authors' use of a form of distribution function that is different from the "standard" form of the kappa distribution, and hence their results, inter alia for an expansion of the distribution function and for the associated number density in an electrostatic potential, do not fully reflect the dependence on kappa that would be associated with the conventional kappa distribution. We note that their definition of the kappa distribution function is also different from a modified distribution based on the notion of nonextensive entropy.

Incorporating uncertainty in predictive species distribution modelling

Motivated by the need to solve ecological problems (climate change, habitat fragmentation and biological invasions), there has been increasing interest in species distribution models (SDMs). Predictions from these models inform conservation policy, invasive species management and disease-control measures. However, predictions are subject to uncertainty, the degree and source of which is often unrecognized. Here, we review the SDM literature in the context of uncertainty, focusing on three main classes of SDM: niche-based models, demographic models and process-based models. We identify sources of uncertainty for each class and discuss how uncertainty can be minimized or included in the modelling process to give realistic measures of confidence around predictions. Because this has typically not been performed, we conclude that uncertainty in SDMs has often been underestimated and a false precision assigned to predictions of geographical distribution. We identify areas where development of new statistical tools will improve predictions from distribution models, notably the development of hierarchical models that link different types of distribution model and their attendant uncertainties across spatial scales. Finally, we discuss the need to develop more defensible methods for assessing predictive performance, quantifying model goodness-of-fit and for assessing the significance of model covariates.

Application of factor analysis and geostatistics to identify processes controlling the distribution and bioaccessibility of trace elements in Northern Ireland soils

Geologic and environmental factors acting over varying spatial scales can control
trace element distribution and mobility in soils. In turn, the mobility of an element in soil will affect its oral bioaccessibility. Geostatistics, kriging and principal component analysis (PCA) were used to explore factors and spatial ranges of influence over a suite of 8 element oxides, soil organic carbon (SOC), pH, and the trace elements nickel (Ni), vanadium (V) and zinc (Zn). Bioaccessibility testing was carried out previously using the Unified BARGE Method on a sub-set of 91 soil samples from the Northern Ireland Tellus1 soil archive. Initial spatial mapping of total Ni, V and Zn concentrations shows their distributions are correlated spatially with local geologic formations, and prior correlation analyses showed that statistically significant controls were exerted over trace element bioaccessibility by the 8 oxides, SOC and pH. PCA applied to the geochemistry parameters of the bioaccessibility sample set yielded three principal components accounting for 77% of cumulative variance in the data
set. Geostatistical analysis of oxide, trace element, SOC and pH distributions using 6862 sample locations also identified distinct spatial ranges of influence for these variables, concluded to arise from geologic forming processes, weathering processes, and localised soil chemistry factors. Kriging was used to conduct a spatial PCA of Ni, V and Zn distributions which identified two factors comprising the majority of distribution variance. This was spatially accounted for firstly by basalt rock types, with the second component associated with sandstone and limestone in the region. The results suggest trace element bioaccessibility and distribution is controlled by chemical and geologic processes which occur over variable spatial ranges of influence.

An evaluation of portion size estimation aids precision, ease of use and likelihood of future use

OBJECTIVE: The present study aimed to evaluate the precision, ease of use and likelihood of future use of portion size estimation aids (PSEA).

DESIGN: A range of PSEA were used to estimate the serving sizes of a range of commonly eaten foods and rated for ease of use and likelihood of future usage.

SETTING: For each food, participants selected their preferred PSEA from a range of options including: quantities and measures; reference objects; measuring; and indicators on food packets. These PSEA were used to serve out various foods (e.g. liquid, amorphous, and composite dishes). Ease of use and likelihood of future use were noted. The foods were weighed to determine the precision of each PSEA.

SUBJECTS: Males and females aged 18-64 years (n 120).

RESULTS: The quantities and measures were the most precise PSEA (lowest range of weights for estimated portion sizes). However, participants preferred household measures (e.g. 200 ml disposable cup) - deemed easy to use (median rating of 5), likely to use again in future (all scored either 4 or 5 on a scale from 1='not very likely' to 5='very likely to use again') and precise (narrow range of weights for estimated portion sizes). The majority indicated they would most likely use the PSEA preparing a meal (94 %), particularly dinner (86 %) in the home (89 %; all P<0·001) for amorphous grain foods.

CONCLUSIONS: Household measures may be precise, easy to use and acceptable aids for estimating the appropriate portion size of amorphous grain foods.

Identification and bisection of temporal durations and tone frequencies: Common models for temporal and non-temporal stimuli.

Two experiments examined identification and bisection of tones varying in temporal duration (Experiment 1) or frequency (Experiment 2). Absolute identification of both durations and frequencies was influenced by prior stimuli and by stimulus distribution. Stimulus distribution influenced bisection for both stimulus types consistently, with more positively skewed distributions producing lower bisection points. The effect of distribution was greater when the ratio of the largest to smallest stimulus magnitude was greater. A simple mathematical model, temporal range frequency theory, was applied. It is concluded that (a) similar principles describe identification of temporal durations and other stimulus dimensions and (b) temporal bisection point shifts can be understood in terms of psychophysical principles independently developed in nontemporal domains, such as A. Parducci's (1965) range frequency theory.

Identical extraction behavior and coordination of trivalent or hexavalent f-element cations using ionic liquid and molecular solvents

The extraction of both UO22+ and trivalent lanthanide and actinide ions (Am3+, Nd3+, Eu3+) by dialkylphosphoric or dialkylphosphinic acids from aqueous solutions into the ionic liquid, 1-decyl-3-methylimidazolium bis(trifluoromethanesulfonyl)imide has been studied and compared to extractions into dodecane. Radiotracer partitioning measurements show comparable patterns of distribution ratios for both the ionic liquid/aqueous and dodecane/aqueous systems, and the limiting slopes at low acidity indicate the partitioning of neutral complexes in both solvent systems. The metal ion coordination environment, elucidated from EXAFS and UV-visible spectroscopy measurements, is equivalent in the ionic liquid and dodecane solutions with coordination of the uranyl cation by two hydrogen-bonded extractant dimers, and of the trivalent cations by three extractant dimers. This is the first definitive report of a system where both the biphasic extraction equilibria and metal coordination environment are the same in an ionic liquid and a molecular organic solvent.

Rasch Analysis of the Daily Living Tasks Dependent on Vision (DLTV)

PURPOSE. To examine internal consistency, refine the response scale, and obtain a linear scoring system for the visual function instrument, the Daily Living Tasks Dependent on Vision (DLTV). METHODS. Data were available from 186 participants with a clinical diagnosis of AMD who completed the 22-item DLTV (DLTV-22) according to four-point ordinal response scale. An independent group of 386 participants with AMD were administered a reduced version of the DLTV with 11 items (DLTV-11), according to a five-point response scale. Rasch analysis was performed on both datasets and used to generate item statistics for measure order, response odds ratios per item and per person, and infit and outfit mean square statistics. The Rasch output from the DLTV-22 was examined to identify redundant items and for factorial validity and person item measure separation reliabilities. RESULTS. The average rating for the DLTV-22 changed monotonically with the magnitude of the latent person trait. The expected versus observed average measures were extremely close, with step calibrations evenly separated for the four-point ordinal scale. In the case of the DLTV-11, step calibrations were not as evenly separated, suggesting that the five-point scale should be reduced to either a four- or three-point scale. Five items in the DLTV-22 were removed, and all 17 remaining items had good infit and outfit mean squares. PCA with residuals from Rasch analysis identified two domains containing 7 and 10 items each. The domains had high person separation reliabilities (0.86 and 0.77 for domains 1 and 2, respectively) and item measure reliabilities (0.99 and 0.98 for domains 1 and 2, respectively). CONCLUSIONS. With the improved internal consistency, establishment of the accuracy and precision of the rating scale for the DLTV and the establishment of a valid domain structure we believe that it constitutes a useful instrument for assessing visual function in older adults with age-related macular degeneration.

Selection of an analytical method for evaluating bovine serum albumin concentrations in pharmaceutical polymeric formulations

Bovine serum albumin (BSA) is a commonly used model protein in the development of pharmaceutical formulations. In order to assay its release from various dosage forms, either the bicinchoninic acid (BCA) assay or a more specific size-exclusion high performance liquid chromatography (SE-HPLC) method are commonly employed. However, these can give erroneous results in the presence of some commonly-used pharmaceutical excipients. We therefore investigated the ability of these methods to accurately determine BSA concentrations in pharmaceutical formulations that also contained various polymers and compared them with a new and compared with a new reverse-phase (RP)–HPLC technique. We found that the RP-HPLC technique was the most suitable method. It gave a linear response in the range of 0.5 -100 µg/ml with a correlation coefficient of 0.9999, a limit of detection of 0.11 µg/ml and quantification of 0.33 µg/ml. The performed ‘t’ test for the estimated and theoretical concentration indicated no significant difference between them providing the accuracy. Low % relative standard deviation values (0.8-1.39%) indicate the precision of the method. Furthermore, the method was used to quantify in vitro BSA release from polymeric freeze-dried formulations.

Systematic random sampling of the comet assay

The comet assay is a technique used to quantify DNA damage and repair at a cellular level. In the assay, cells are embedded in agarose and the cellular content is stripped away leaving only the DNA trapped in an agarose cavity which can then be electrophoresed. The damaged DNA can enter the agarose and migrate while the undamaged DNA cannot and is retained. DNA damage is measured as the proportion of the migratory ‘tail’ DNA compared to the total DNA in the cell. The fundamental basis of these arbitrary values is obtained in the comet acquisition phase using fluorescence microscopy with a stoichiometric stain in tandem with image analysis software. Current methods deployed in such an acquisition are expected to be both objectively and randomly obtained. In this paper we examine the ‘randomness’ of the acquisition phase and suggest an alternative method that offers both objective and unbiased comet selection. In order to achieve this, we have adopted a survey sampling approach widely used in stereology, which offers a method of systematic random sampling (SRS). This is desirable as it offers an impartial and reproducible method of comet analysis that can be used both manually or automated. By making use of an unbiased sampling frame and using microscope verniers, we are able to increase the precision of estimates of DNA damage. Results obtained from a multiple-user pooled variation experiment showed that the SRS technique attained a lower variability than that of the traditional approach. The analysis of a single user with repetition experiment showed greater individual variances while not being detrimental to overall averages. This would suggest that the SRS method offers a better reflection of DNA damage for a given slide and also offers better user reproducibility.

Assessment of the benefits of Discrete Conditional Survival Models in modelling ambulance response times

Many of the challenges faced in health care delivery can be informed through building models. In particular, Discrete Conditional Survival (DCS) models, recently under development, can provide policymakers with a flexible tool to assess time-to-event data. The DCS model is capable of modelling the survival curve based on various underlying distribution types and is capable of clustering or grouping observations (based on other covariate information) external to the distribution fits. The flexibility of the model comes through the choice of data mining techniques that are available in ascertaining the different subsets and also in the choice of distribution types available in modelling these informed subsets. This paper presents an illustrated example of the Discrete Conditional Survival model being deployed to represent ambulance response-times by a fully parameterised model. This model is contrasted against use of a parametric accelerated failure-time model, illustrating the strength and usefulness of Discrete Conditional Survival models.