125 resultados para posterior predictive check

em QUB Research Portal - Research Directory and Institutional Repository for Queen's University Belfast


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The incorporation of one-dimensional simulation codes within engine modelling applications has proved to be a useful tool in evaluating unsteady gas flow through elements in the exhaust system. This paper reports on an experimental and theoretical investigation into the behaviour of unsteady gas flow through catalyst substrate elements. A one-dimensional (1-D) catalyst model has been incorporated into a 1-D simulation code to predict this behaviour.

Experimental data was acquired using a ‘single pulse’ test rig. Substrate samples were tested under ambient conditions in order to investigate a range of regimes experienced by the catalyst during operation. This allowed reflection and transmission characteristics to be quantified in relation to both geometric and physical properties of substrate elements. Correlation between measured and predicted results is demonstrably good and the model provides an effective analysis tool for evaluating unsteady gas flow through different catalytic converter designs.

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Objectives: To determine whether diagnostic triage by general practitioners (GPs) or rheumatology nurses (RNs) can improve the positive predictive value of referrals to early arthritis clinics (EACs).

Methods: Four GPs and two RNs were trained in the assessment of early in?ammatory arthritis (IA) by four visits to an EAC supervised by hospital rheumatologists. Patients referred to one of three EACs were recruited for study and assessed independently by a GP, an RN and one of six rheumatologists. Each assessor was asked to record their clinical ?ndings and whether they considered the patient to have IA. Each was then asked to judge the appropriateness of the referral according to predetermined guidelines. The rheumatologists had been shown previously to have a satisfactory level of agreement in the assessment of IA.

Results: Ninety-six patients were approached and all consented to take part in the study. In 49 cases (51%), the rheumatologist judged that the patient had IA and that the referral was appropriate. The assessments of GPs and RNs were compared with those of the rheumatologists. Levels of agreement were measured using the kappa value, where 1.0 represents total unanimity. The kappa value was
0.77 for the GPs when compared with the rheumatologists and 0.79 for the RNs. Signi?cant stiffness in the morning or after rest and objective joint swelling were the most important clinical features enabling the GPs and RNs to discriminate between IA and non-IA conditions.

Conclusion: Diagnostic triage by GPs or RNs improved the positive predictive value of referrals to an EAC with a degree of accuracy approaching that of a group of experienced rheumatologists.

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Cataract is the leading cause of visual impairment worldwide. In the UK, some 30% of the population over 65 years of age have visually impairing cataract. Importantly, 88% of those with treatable visual impairment from cataract are not in contact with any ocular healthcare service, representing a major potential healthcare need [1]. In the USA, it has been estimated that 17.2% of the population (approximately 20.5 million) over 40 years of age have cataract in either eye and by 2020, this number is expected to rise to 30.1 million. Currently, cataract is responsible for 60% of Medicare costs associated with vision [2]. Furthermore, as the populations of industrialized countries such as the UK and the USA continue to age, the costs associated with treatment of cataract can only be expected to increase. Consequently, the development of the intraocular lens to replace the cataractous lens and the advances in intraocular lens design and implantation represent a major development in cataract treatment. However, despite such advances, cataract surgery is not without complications, such as postoperative infectious endophthalmitis, a rare but potentially devastating condition, and posterior capsular opacification, a less serious but much more common problem. This review will examine the epidemiology of cataracts, the polymeric construction of intraocular lenses implanted during cataract surgery and the complications of postoperative infectious endophthalmitis and posterior capsular opacification with regard to therapeutic interventions and prophylactic strategies. Advances in biomaterial design and function will be discussed as novel approaches to prevent such postoperative complications.

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Scientific computation has unavoidable approximations built into its very fabric. One important source of error that is difficult to detect and control is round-off error propagation which originates from the use of finite precision arithmetic. We propose that there is a need to perform regular numerical `health checks' on scientific codes in order to detect the cancerous effect of round-off error propagation. This is particularly important in scientific codes that are built on legacy software. We advocate the use of the CADNA library as a suitable numerical screening tool. We present a case study to illustrate the practical use of CADNA in scientific codes that are of interest to the Computer Physics Communications readership. In doing so we hope to stimulate a greater awareness of round-off error propagation and present a practical means by which it can be analyzed and managed.

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