Can diagnostic triage by general practitioners or rheumatology nurses improve the positive predictive value of referrals to early arthritis clinics?

Objectives: To determine whether diagnostic triage by general practitioners (GPs) or rheumatology nurses (RNs) can improve the positive predictive value of referrals to early arthritis clinics (EACs).

Methods: Four GPs and two RNs were trained in the assessment of early in?ammatory arthritis (IA) by four visits to an EAC supervised by hospital rheumatologists. Patients referred to one of three EACs were recruited for study and assessed independently by a GP, an RN and one of six rheumatologists. Each assessor was asked to record their clinical ?ndings and whether they considered the patient to have IA. Each was then asked to judge the appropriateness of the referral according to predetermined guidelines. The rheumatologists had been shown previously to have a satisfactory level of agreement in the assessment of IA.

Results: Ninety-six patients were approached and all consented to take part in the study. In 49 cases (51%), the rheumatologist judged that the patient had IA and that the referral was appropriate. The assessments of GPs and RNs were compared with those of the rheumatologists. Levels of agreement were measured using the kappa value, where 1.0 represents total unanimity. The kappa value was
0.77 for the GPs when compared with the rheumatologists and 0.79 for the RNs. Signi?cant stiffness in the morning or after rest and objective joint swelling were the most important clinical features enabling the GPs and RNs to discriminate between IA and non-IA conditions.

Conclusion: Diagnostic triage by GPs or RNs improved the positive predictive value of referrals to an EAC with a degree of accuracy approaching that of a group of experienced rheumatologists.

Evaluation and outcome of patients with chronic non-productive cough using a comprehensive diagnostic protocol

Background-Asthma, post-nasal drip syndrome (PNDS), and gastrooesophageal reflux (GOR) account for many cases of chronic non-productive cough (CNPC). Each may simultaneously contribute to cough even when clinically silent, and failure to recognise their contribution may lead to unsuccessful treatment.

Methods—Patients (all lifetime non-smokers with normal chest radiographs and spirometric measurements) referred with CNPC persisting for more than three weeks as their sole respiratory symptom underwent histamine challenge, home peak flow measurements, ear, nose and throat (ENT) examination, sinus CT scanning, and 24 hour oesophageal pH monitoring. Treatment was prescribed on the basis of diagnoses informed by investigation results.

RESULTS—Forty three patients (29 women) of mean age 47.5 years (range 18-77) and mean cough duration 67 months (range 2-240) were evaluated. On the basis of a successful response to treatment, a cause for the cough was identified in 35 patients (82%) as follows: cough variant asthma (CVA) (10 cases), PNDS (9 cases), GOR (8cases), and dual aetiologies (8 cases). Histamine challenge correctly predicted CVA in 15 of 17 (88%) positive tests. ENT examination and sinus CT scans each had low positive predictive values for PNDS (10 of 16 (63%) and 12 of 18 (67%) positive cases, respectively), suggesting that upper airways disease frequently co-exists but does not always contribute to cough. When negative, histamine challenge and 24 hour oesophageal pH monitoring effectively ruled out CVA and GOR, respectively, as a cause for cough.

CONCLUSION—This comprehensive approach aids the accurate direction of treatment and, while CVA, PNDS and GOR remain the most important causes of CNPC to consider, a group with no identifiable aetiology remains.

A comparison of self-report and health care provider data to assess surveillance definitions of influenza-like illness in outpatients

Objective: Several surveillance definitions of influenza-like illness (ILI) have been proposed, based on the presence of symptoms. Symptom data can be obtained from patients, medical records, or both. Past research has found that agreements between health record data and self-report are variable depending on the specific symptom. Therefore, we aimed to explore the implications of using data on influenza symptoms extracted from medical records, similar data collected prospectively from outpatients, and the combined data from both sources as predictors of laboratory-confirmed influenza. Methods: Using data from the Hutterite Influenza Prevention Study, we calculated: 1) the sensitivity, specificity and predictive values of individual symptoms within surveillance definitions; 2) how frequently surveillance definitions correlated to laboratory-confirmed influenza; and 3) the predictive value of surveillance definitions. Results: Of the 176 participants with reports from participants and medical records, 142 (81%) were tested for influenza and 37 (26%) were PCR positive for influenza. Fever (alone) and fever combined with cough and/or sore throat were highly correlated with being PCR positive for influenza for all data sources. ILI surveillance definitions, based on symptom data from medical records only or from both medical records and self-report, were better predictors of laboratory-confirmed influenza with higher odds ratios and positive predictive values. Discussion: The choice of data source to determine ILI will depend on the patient population, outcome of interest, availability of data source, and use for clinical decision making, research, or surveillance. © Canadian Public Health Association, 2012.

A prospective clinical trial of a real-time polymerase chain reaction assay for the diagnosis of candidemia in nonneutropenic, critically ill adults

Background. Invasive Candida infection among nonneutropenic, critically ill adults is a clinical problem that has received increasing attention in recent years. Poor performance of extant diagnostic modalities has promoted risk-based, preemptive prescribing in view of the poor outcomes associated with inadequate or delayed antifungal therapy; this risks unnecessary overtreatment. A rapid, reliable diagnostic test could have a substantial impact on therapeutic practice in this patient population.

Methods. Three TaqMan-based real-time polymerase chain reaction assays were developed that are capable of detecting the main medically important Candida species, categorized according to the likelihood of fluconazole susceptibility. Assay 1 detected Candida albicans, Candida parapsilosis, Candida tropicalis, and Candida dubliniensis. Assays 2 and 3 detected Candida glabrata and Candida krusei, respectively. The clinical performance of these assays, applied to serum, was evaluated in a prospective trial of nonneutropenic adults in a single intensive care unit.

Results. In all, 527 specimens were obtained from 157 participants. All 3 assays were run in parallel for each specimen; they could be completed within 1 working day. Of these, 23 specimens were obtained from 23 participants categorized as having proven Candida infection at the time of sampling. If a single episode of Candida famata candidemia was excluded, the estimated clinical sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of the assays in this trial were 90.9%, 100%, 100% and 99.8%, respectively.

Conclusions. These data suggest that the described assays perform well in this population for enhancing the diagnosis of candidemia. The extent to which they may affect clinical outcomes, prescribing practice, and cost-effectiveness of care remains to be ascertained.

Rapid detection of health-care-associated bloodstream infection in critical care using multipathogen real-time polymerase chain reaction technology: a diagnostic accuracy study and systematic review

Background: There is growing interest in the potential utility of real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) in diagnosing bloodstream infection by detecting pathogen deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) in blood samples within a few hours. SeptiFast (Roche Diagnostics GmBH, Mannheim, Germany) is a multipathogen probe-based system targeting ribosomal DNA sequences of bacteria and fungi. It detects and identifies the commonest pathogens causing bloodstream infection. As background to this study, we report a systematic review of Phase III diagnostic accuracy studies of SeptiFast, which reveals uncertainty about its likely clinical utility based on widespread evidence of deficiencies in study design and reporting with a high risk of bias. 

Objective: Determine the accuracy of SeptiFast real-time PCR for the detection of health-care-associated bloodstream infection, against standard microbiological culture. 

Design: Prospective multicentre Phase III clinical diagnostic accuracy study using the standards for the reporting of diagnostic accuracy studies criteria. 

Setting: Critical care departments within NHS hospitals in the north-west of England. 

Participants: Adult patients requiring blood culture (BC) when developing new signs of systemic inflammation. 

Main outcome measures: SeptiFast real-time PCR results at species/genus level compared with microbiological culture in association with independent adjudication of infection. Metrics of diagnostic accuracy were derived including sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios and predictive values, with their 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Latent class analysis was used to explore the diagnostic performance of culture as a reference standard. 

Results: Of 1006 new patient episodes of systemic inflammation in 853 patients, 922 (92%) met the inclusion criteria and provided sufficient information for analysis. Index test assay failure occurred on 69 (7%) occasions. Adult patients had been exposed to a median of 8 days (interquartile range 4–16 days) of hospital care, had high levels of organ support activities and recent antibiotic exposure. SeptiFast real-time PCR, when compared with culture-proven bloodstream infection at species/genus level, had better specificity (85.8%, 95% CI 83.3% to 88.1%) than sensitivity (50%, 95% CI 39.1% to 60.8%). When compared with pooled diagnostic metrics derived from our systematic review, our clinical study revealed lower test accuracy of SeptiFast real-time PCR, mainly as a result of low diagnostic sensitivity. There was a low prevalence of BC-proven pathogens in these patients (9.2%, 95% CI 7.4% to 11.2%) such that the post-test probabilities of both a positive (26.3%, 95% CI 19.8% to 33.7%) and a negative SeptiFast test (5.6%, 95% CI 4.1% to 7.4%) indicate the potential limitations of this technology in the diagnosis of bloodstream infection. However, latent class analysis indicates that BC has a low sensitivity, questioning its relevance as a reference test in this setting. Using this analysis approach, the sensitivity of the SeptiFast test was low but also appeared significantly better than BC. Blood samples identified as positive by either culture or SeptiFast real-time PCR were associated with a high probability (> 95%) of infection, indicating higher diagnostic rule-in utility than was apparent using conventional analyses of diagnostic accuracy. 

Conclusion: SeptiFast real-time PCR on blood samples may have rapid rule-in utility for the diagnosis of health-care-associated bloodstream infection but the lack of sensitivity is a significant limiting factor. Innovations aimed at improved diagnostic sensitivity of real-time PCR in this setting are urgently required. Future work recommendations include technology developments to improve the efficiency of pathogen DNA extraction and the capacity to detect a much broader range of pathogens and drug resistance genes and the application of new statistical approaches able to more reliably assess test performance in situation where the reference standard (e.g. blood culture in the setting of high antimicrobial use) is prone to error.

Performance of a Novel Molecular Method in the Diagnosis of Late-Onset Sepsis in Very Low Birth Weight Infants

OBJECTIVE: To compare the use of a generic molecular assay to 'standard' investigations used to assist the diagnosis of late onset bacterial sepsis in very low birth weight infants (VLBW, <1500g).

METHODS: VLBW infants, greater than 48 hours of age, who were clinically suspected to have sepsis were investigated using standard tests (full blood count, C-reactive protein (at presentation) and blood culture), in addition, blood was taken for a universal molecular assay (16S rRNA reverse transcriptase PCR) for comparison. Clinical data were recorded during the suspected infection episode. A validated sepsis score (NEO-KISS) was used to retrospectively determine the presence of sepsis (independent of blood culture). The performance of each of the tests were compared by sensitivity, specificity, positive/negative likihood ratios (+/-LR) and postive/negative predictive values (PPV/NPV).

RESULTS: Sixty-five babies with suspected clinical sepsis were prospectively included. The performance indicators are presented with 95% confidence limits. For the detection of bacteria, blood culture had sensitivity of 0.57 (0.34-0.78), specificity of 0.45 (0.30-0.61); +LR of 1.05 (0.66-1.66) and-LR of 0.94 (0.52-1.7); PPV of 33.3 (18.56-50.97) and NPV of 68.97 (49.17-87.72). Serum CRP had sensitivity of 0.92 (0.64-1) and specificity of 0.36 (0.17-0.59); +LR of 1.45 (1-2.1) and-LR of 0.21 (0.03-1.5); PPV of 44.46 (26.6-66.6) and NPV of 88.9 (51.8-99.7). The universal molecular assay had sensitivity of 0.76 (0.53-0.92), specificity of 0.95 (0.85-0.99); +LR of 16.8 (4.2-66.3) and-LR of 0.25 (0.1-0.5); PPV of 88.9 (65.3-98.6) and NPV of 89.4 (76.9-96.5).

CONCLUSIONS: In VLBW infants this universal molecular assay performed better in the diagnosis of late onset sepsis (LOS) than blood culture and CRP. Further development is required to explore and improve the performance of the assay in real-time diagnosis.

Breast cancer outcomes following predictive BRCA testing in Northern Ireland

Objectives: Since 1995, BRCA testing has identified 445 women in Northern Ireland who carry a pathogenic BRCA1/2 mutation, without breast cancer (bca) at testing. This study examined outcomes with reference to management, bca risk, and incidence following positive predictive testing. Methods: Patients were identified from the regional genetics database. Electronic clinical records were used to obtain management and outcome details. Median follow-up was to bca diagnosis, risk-reducing mastectomy (rrm), death, or last follow-up. Results: 169 women had a BRCA1 mutation, and 276 BRCA2. ■ BRCA1 cohort: Median follow-up post-testing was 3 years. 56 Women (33%) had rrm, and 12 are awaiting rrm (total 68, 40%) at a median age of 36 years. 12 Women (7%) developed bca, at a median of 2 years following testing. 4 Women were diagnosed with bcas incidentally at rrm. 7 Patients had bilateral mastectomies following a cancer diagnosis. 1 Woman developed bca following rrm (1.7%). Three deaths were reported: 1 breast cancer (1.7%), 1 ovarian cancer (1.7%), and 1 with no recorded breast/ovarian cancer diagnosis. ■ BRCA2 cohort: Median follow-up post-testing was 6 years. rrm was carried out in 75 women (27%), with 20 awaiting rrm (total 95, 35%); median age: 39 years. 16 Women developed bca (5.8%), at a median of 5 years from testing. 6 Women were diagnosed with cancer incidentally at rrm; 9 women had bilateral mastectomy following diagnosis, and 1 developed bca following rrm (1.3%). Five deaths were reported: 1 bca, 1 ovarian cancer, and 3 with no recorded breast/ovarian cancer diagnosis. Conclusions: The uptake of rrm following predictive BRCA testing in Northern Ireland is comparable with that reported elsewhere. The incidence of bca following rrm is low (<2%) in our cohort, with low breast and ovarian cancer–specific mortality following positive predictive testing.

Common polygenic variation enhances risk prediction for Alzheimer's disease.

The identification of subjects at high risk for Alzheimer’s disease is important for prognosis and early intervention. We investigated the polygenic architecture of Alzheimer’s disease and the accuracy of Alzheimer’s disease prediction models, including and excluding the polygenic component in the model. This study used genotype data from the powerful dataset comprising 17 008 cases and 37 154 controls obtained from the International Genomics of Alzheimer’s Project (IGAP). Polygenic score analysis tested whether the alleles identified to associate with disease in one sample set were significantly enriched in the cases relative to the controls in an independent sample. The disease prediction accuracy was investigated in a subset of the IGAP data, a sample of 3049 cases and 1554 controls (for whom APOE genotype data were available) by means of sensitivity, specificity, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and positive and negative predictive values. We observed significant evidence for a polygenic component enriched in Alzheimer’s disease (P = 4.9 × 10−26). This enrichment remained significant after APOE and other genome-wide associated regions were excluded (P = 3.4 × 10−19). The best prediction accuracy AUC = 78.2% (95% confidence interval 77–80%) was achieved by a logistic regression model with APOE, the polygenic score, sex and age as predictors. In conclusion, Alzheimer’s disease has a significant polygenic component, which has predictive utility for Alzheimer’s disease risk and could be a valuable research tool complementing experimental designs, including preventative clinical trials, stem cell selection and high/low risk clinical studies. In modelling a range of sample disease prevalences, we found that polygenic scores almost doubles case prediction from chance with increased prediction at polygenic extremes.

Molecular testing of respiratory swabs aids early recognition of meningococcal disease in children

Early meningococcal disease (MD) diagnosis is difficult. We assessed rapid molecular testing of respiratory specimens. We performed genotyping of respiratory swabs, blood, and cerebrospinal fluid from children with suspected disease and nasal swabs (NSs) from matched controls. Thirty-nine of 104 suspected cases had confirmed disease. Four controls were carriers. Throat swab ctrA and porA testing for detection of disease gave a sensitivity of 81% (17/21), specificity of 100% (44/44), positive predictive value (PPV) of 100% (17/17), negative predictive value (NPV) of 92% (44/48), and relative risk of 12. NS ctrA and porA testing gave a sensitivity of 51% (20/39), specificity of 95% (62/65), PPV of 87% (20/23), NPV of 77% (62/81), and relative risk of 4. Including only the 86 NSs taken within 48 h of presentation, the results were sensitivity of 60% (18/30), specificity of 96% (54/56), PPV of 90% (18/20), NPV of 82% (54/66), and relative risk of 5. Swab type agreement was excellent (kappa 0.80, P

Improved detection of acute myocardial infarction in patients with chest pain and significant left main stem coronary stenosis.

Background: Non-invasive diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) associated with significant left main stem (LMS) stenosis remains challenging.

Methods: Consecutive patients presenting with acute ischaemic-type chest pain from 2000 to 2010 were analysed. Entry criteria: 12-lead ECG and Body Surface Potential Map (BSPM) at presentation, cardiac troponin T (cTnT) =12?h and coronary angiography during admission. cTnT =0.03?µg/l defined AMI. ECG abnormalities assessed: STEMI by Minnesota criteria; ST elevation (STE) aVR =0.5?mm; ST depression (STD) =0.5?mm in =2 contiguous leads (CL); T-wave inversion (TWI) =1?mm in =2 CL. BSPM STE was =2?mm in anterior, =1?mm in lateral, inferior, right ventricular or high right anterior and =0.5?mm in posterior territories. Significant LMS stenosis was =70%.

Results: Enrolled were 2810 patients (aged 60?±?12 years; 71% male). Of these, 116 (4.1%) had significant LMS stenosis with AMI occurring in 92 (79%). STEMI by Minnesota criteria occurred in 13 (11%) (sensitivity 12%, specificity 92%), STE in lead aVR in 23 (20%) (sensitivity 23%, specificity 92%), TWI in 38 (33%) (sensitivity 34%, specificity 71%) and STD in 51 (44%) (sensitivity 49%, specificity 75%). BSPM STE occurred in 85 (73%): sensitivity 88%, specificity 83%, positive predictive value 95% and negative predictive value 65%. Of those with AMI, 74% had STE in either the high right anterior or right ventricular territories not identified by the 12-lead ECG. C-Statistic for AMI diagnosis using BSPM STE was 0.800 (P?<?0.001).

Conclusion: In patients with significant LMS stenosis presenting with chest pain, BSPM STE has improved sensitivity (88%), with specificity 83%, over 12-lead ECG in the diagnosis of AMI.

The mechanical and rheological characterisation of implantable medical devices formulated from binary mixtures of cellulose derivatives

This study highlights the potential associated with utilising multi-component polymeric gels to formulate materials that possess unique rheological and mechanical properties. The synergistic effect* and interaction between hydroxyethylcellulose (HEC) and sodium carboxymethylcellulose (NaCMC), polymers which are commonly employed as drug delivery platforms for implantable medical devices (1), have been determined using dynamic, continuous shear and texture profile analysis. * The difference between the actual response of a binary mixture and the sum of the two components comprising the mixture Increases in polymer concentration resulted in an increase in G', G? and ?' whereas tan d decreased. Similarly, significant increases were also apparent in continuous shear and texture analysis. All binary mixtures showed positive synergy values which may suggest associative interaction between the two components.

The BTA stat test:A tumor marker for the detection of upper tract transitional cell carcinoma

Objectives. To conduct a prospective evaluation to determine the utility of the BTA stat test in the detection of upper tract transitional cell carcinoma (UTTCC). Monitoring for UTTCC currently relies on invasive procedures such as upper tract imaging, ureteral washing cytology (UWC) and/or ureteroscopy, or voided urine cytology (VUC). The BTA stat test is a sensitive qualitative immunoassay that detects human complement factor H-related protein in voided urine.

Methods. A total of 81 patients participated, 27 with histopathologically confirmed UTTCC, 26 with upper tract calculi, and 28 with microscopic hematuria but no evidence of urologic disease. Voided specimens collected before surgery or treatment were tested with the BTA stat test and VUC. UWC was performed in specimens collected by a ureteral catheter.

Results. The BTA stat test was significantly more sensitive and specific than VUC or UWC. The overall sensitivity for each was 82%, 11%, and 48%; the specificity was 89%, 54%, and 33%. The positive predictive value for the BTA stat test was 79% and the negative predictive value was 91%, both the highest of the three tests.

Conclusions. The BTA stat test was superior to VUC and UWC in the detection of UTTCC. These results may support the adoption of a less aggressive follow-up policy when monitoring for UTTCC when the BTA stat result is negative. If cystoscopy is negative and the BTA stat test is positive, upper tract investigations should be expedited and, if the bladder is in place, bladder biopsies performed. (C) 2001, Elsevier Science Inc.

Diagnostic accuracy of loop-mediated isothermal amplification as a near-patient test for meningococcal disease in children: An observational cohort study

Background: Diagnosis of meningococcal disease relies on recognition of clinical signs and symptoms that are notoriously non-specific, variable, and often absent in the early stages of the disease. Loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) has previously been shown to be fast and effective for the molecular detection of meningococcal DNA in clinical specimens. We aimed to assess the diagnostic accuracy of meningococcal LAMP as a near-patient test in the emergency department.

Methods: For this observational cohort study of diagnostic accuracy, children aged 0-13 years presenting to the emergency department of the Royal Belfast Hospital for Sick Children (Belfast, UK) with suspected meningococcal disease were eligible for inclusion. Patients underwent a standard meningococcal pack of investigations testing for meningococcal disease. Respiratory (nasopharyngeal swab) and blood specimens were collected from patients and tested with near-patient meningococcal LAMP and the results were compared with those obtained by reference laboratory tests (culture and PCR of blood and cerebrospinal fluid).

Findings: Between Nov 1, 2009, and Jan 31, 2012, 161 eligible children presenting at the hospital underwent the meningococcal pack of investigations and were tested for meningococcal disease, of whom 148 consented and were enrolled in the study. Combined testing of respiratory and blood specimens with use of LAMP was accurate (sensitivity 89% [95% CI 72-96], specificity 100% [97-100], positive predictive value 100% [85-100]; negative predictive value 98% [93-99]) and diagnostically useful (positive likelihood ratio 213 [95% CI 13-infinity] and negative likelihood ratio 0·11 [0·04-0·32]). The median time required for near-patient testing from sample to result was 1 h 26 min (IQR 1 h 20 min-1 h 32 min).

Interpretation: Meningococcal LAMP is straightforward enough for use in any hospital with basic laboratory facilities, and near-patient testing with this method is both feasible and effective. By contrast with existing UK National Institute of Health and Care Excellence guidelines, we showed that molecular testing of non-invasive respiratory specimens from children is diagnostically accurate and clinically useful.

Validating the accuracy of a model to predict the onset of myopia in children.

PURPOSE: To assess the sensitivity and specificity of models predicting myopia onset among ethnically Chinese children. METHODS: Visual acuity, height, weight, biometry (A-scan, keratometry), and refractive error were assessed at baseline and 3 years later using the same equipment and protocol in primary schools in Xiamen (China) and Singapore. A regression model predicting the onset of myopia < -0.75 diopters (D) after 3 years in either eye among Xiamen children was validated with Singapore data. RESULTS: Baseline data were collected from 236 Xiamen children (mean age, 7.82 ± 0.63 years) and from 1979 predominantly Chinese children in Singapore (7.83 ± 0.84 years). Singapore children were significantly taller and heavier, and had more myopia (31.4% vs. 6.36% < -0.75 D in either eye, P < 0.001) and longer mean axial length. Three-year follow-up was available for 80.0% of Xiamen children and 83.1% in Singapore. For Xiamen, the area under the receiver-operator curve (AUC) in a model including ocular biometry, height, weight, and presenting visual acuity was 0.974 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.945-0.997). In Singapore, the same model achieved sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value of 0.844, 0.650, and 0.669, with an AUC of 0.815 (95% CI, 0.791-0.839). CONCLUSIONS: Accuracy in predicting myopia onset based on simple measurements may be sufficient to make targeted early intervention practical in settings such as Singapore with high myopia prevalence. Models based on cohorts with a greater prevalence of high myopia than that in Xiamen could be used to assess accuracy of models predicting more severe forms of myopia.