Length of Stay-Based Patient Flow Models: Recent Developments and Future Directions

Modelling patient flow in health care systems is vital in understanding the system activity and may therefore prove to be useful in improving their functionality. An extensively used measure is the average length of stay which, although easy to calculate and quantify, is not considered appropriate when the distribution is very long-tailed. In fact, simple deterministic models are generally considered inadequate because of the necessity for models to reflect the complex, variable, dynamic and multidimensional nature of the systems. This paper focuses on modelling length of stay and flow of patients. An overview of such modelling techniques is provided, with particular attention to their impact and suitability in managing a hospital service.

Modelling the flow of congestive heart failure patients through a hospital system

The number of hospital admissions in England due to heart failure is projected to increase by over 50% during the next 25 years. This will incur greater pressures on hospital managers to allocate resources in an effective manner. A reliable indicator for measuring the quantity of resources consumed by hospital patients is their length of stay (LOS) in care. This paper proposes modelling the length of time heart failure patients spend in hospital using a special type of Markov model, where the flow of patients through hospital can be thought of as consisting of three stages of care—short-, medium- and longer-term care. If it is assumed that new admissions into the ward are replacements for discharges, such a model may be used to investigate the case-mix of patients in hospital and the expected patient turnover during some specified period of time. An example is illustrated by considering hospital admissions to a Belfast hospital in Northern Ireland, between 2000 and 2004.

Combination of CFD and DOE to analyze and improve the mass flow rate in urinary catheters

The urinary catheter is a thin plastic tube that has been designed to empty the bladder artificially, effortlessly, and with minimum discomfort. The current CH14 male catheter design was examined with a view to optimizing the mass flow rate. The literature imposed constraints to the analysis of the urinary catheter to ensure that a compromise between optimal flow, patient comfort, and everyday practicality from manufacture to use was achieved in the new design. As a result a total of six design characteristics were examined. The input variables in question were the length and width of eyelets 1 and 2 (four variables), the distance between the eyelets, and the angle of rotation between the eyelets. Due to the high number of possible input combinations a structured approach to the analysis of data was necessary. A combination of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and design of experiments (DOE) has been used to evaluate the "optimal configuration." The use of CFD couple with DOE is a novel concept, which harnesses the computational power of CFD in the most efficient manner for prediction of the mass flow rate in the catheter. Copyright © 2009 by ASME.

Investigating Fractured Flow from Orthopaedics to Rehabilitation

Patients often spend time as inpatients in hospitals outside their home area because of the need to access specialist services. If there is a need for ongoing care after the need for specialist care has passed, patients are transferred (or ‘repatriated’) back to the inpatient care of a hospital in their local Health and Social Care Trust. The need for bed space in specialist units means that there is pressure for this transition to occur in a timely way. We investigated the flow of patients through a trauma and orthopaedics unit using the 6M Design® framework and Vitals Charts® in order to investigate concerns about delayed repatriation. We found that repatriation was part of a complex system that had interdependent components. There was considerable variation in the number of discharges (to any destination) by day of week, with a reduction on Saturdays and Sundays. Understanding that the pressure for quicker repatriation was really due to high work-in-progress led us to model the effects of strategies to address the high work-in-progress. We found that, because only a small proportion of patients require repatriation, expediting the repatriation process by one day for each patient would only reduce WIP by an average of 1.6 patients. Reducing the average length of stay for all trauma and orthopaedics inpatients by one day would reduce the WIP by 10 patients, which would make a much greater impact on the problem of high bed occupancy. Though the smooth and timely repatriation of patients to rehabilitation units is desirable, it is unlikely that efforts to achieve this will have a substantial impact on the problem of high WIP, so other strategies will be required. We will model the effects of strategies to reduce variation in daily discharges by the day of week in a future essay.