This Time is Different: Causes and Consequences of British Banking Instability over the Long Run

This paper addresses three questions: (1) How severe were the episodes of banking instability
experienced by the UK over the past two centuries? (2) What have been the macroeconomic
indicators of UK banking instability? and (3) What have been the consequences of UK banking
instability for the cost of credit? Using a unique dataset of bank share prices from 1830 to 2010
to assess the stability of the UK banking system, we find that banking instability has grown more
severe since the 1970s. We also find that interest rates, inflation, lending growth, and equity
prices are consistent macroeconomic indicators of UK banking instability over the long run.
Furthermore, utilising a unique dataset of corporate-bond yields for the period 1860 to 2010, we
find that there is a significant long-run relationship between banking instability and the creditrisk
premium faced by businesses.

Nitrogen budget for the Oldman River Basin, southern Alberta, Canada

The Oldman River Basin (OMRB), located in southern Alberta (Canada), with an area of 28,200 km2, is mainly forested in its western part and is used for intensive agriculture in its eastern part. The objective of this paper is to estimate the nitrogen (N) budget for the Oldman River Basin as a whole and its sub-basins, and to discuss differences in the N budget between various sub-basins. Better knowledge of the N budget in this watershed may be also utilized for understanding N dynamics in similar watersheds within semi-arid climatic regions. The model used is a mass balance spreadsheet model that takes into account N inputs and N export through surface water. During the last 120 years, anthropogenic N inputs to the OMRB have increased circa 40 fold. By the end of the 20th century, the OMRB received an annualN input of about 5174 kg N km-2 yr-1, whereas only about 25 kg N km-2 yr-1 were exported via riverine flow. For the sub-basins, annual N inputs ranged from 2516 to 19011 kg N km-2 yr-1, and annual N export via riverine flows varied between 6 and 277 kg N km-2 yr-1. Over 85% of total N inputs to the OMRB are due to anthropogenic activities, including manure (55%), synthetic fertilizer (27%), and N fixation on agricultural lands (4%). Sewage accounted for less than 1%, and N inputs from atmospheric deposition and fixation in forests represented 6 and 8% respectively. Despite increasing anthropogenic N inputs, N export with riverine flow currently accounts for only 1% of the inputs, indicating thatmost of theNinputs are currently retained in the OMRB or are re-emitted into the atmosphere.

Dynamical instability in surface permeability characteristics of building sandstones in response to salt accumulation over time

This paper explores how the surface permeability of sandstone blocks changes over time in response to repeated salt weathering cycles. Surface permeability controls the amount of moisture and dissolved salt that can penetrate in and facilitate decay. Connected pores permit the movement of moisture (and hence soluble salts) into the stone interior, and where areas are more or less permeable soluble salts may migrate along preferred pathways at differential rates. Previous research has shown that salts can accumulate in the near-surface zone and lead to partial pore blocking which influences subsequent moisture ingress and causes rapid salt accumulation in the near-surface zone.

Two parallel salt weathering simulations were carried out on blocks of Peakmoor Sandstone of different volumes. Blocks were removed from simulations after 2, 5, 10, 20 and 60 cycles. Permeability measurements were taken for these blocks at a resolution of 20 mm, providing a grid of 100 permeability values for each surface. The geostatistical technique of ordinary kriging was applied to the data to produce a smoothed interpolation of permeability for these surfaces, and hence improve understanding of the evolution of permeability over time in response to repeated salt weathering cycles.

Results illustrate the different responses of the sandstone blocks of different volumes to repeated salt weathering cycles. In both cases, after an initial subtle decline in the permeability (reflecting pore blocking), the permeability starts to increase — reflected in a rise in mean, maximum and minimum values. However, between 10 and 20 cycles, there is a jump in the mean and range permeability of the group A block surfaces coinciding with the onset of meaningful debris release. After 60 cycles, the range of permeability in the group A block surface had increased markedly, suggesting the development of a secondary permeability. The concept of dynamic instability and divergent behaviour is applied at the scale of a single block surface, with initial small-scale differences across a surface having larger scale consequences as weathering progresses.

After cycle 10, group B blocks show a much smaller increase in mean permeability, and the range stays relatively steady — this may be explained by the capillary conditions set up by the smaller volume of the stone, allowing salts to migrate to the ‘back’ of the blocks and effectively relieving stress at the ‘front’ face.

Recombinant canine distemper virus strain Snyder Hill expressing green or red fluorescent proteins causes meningoencephalitis in the ferret

The propensity of canine distemper virus (CDV) to spread to the central nervous system is one of the primary features of distemper. Therefore, we developed a reverse genetics system based on the neurovirulent Snyder Hill (SH) strain of CDV (CDV(SH)) and show that this virus rapidly circumvents the blood-brain and blood-cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) barriers to spread into the subarachnoid space to induce dramatic viral meningoencephalitis. The use of recombinant CDV(SH) (rCDV(SH)) expressing enhanced green fluorescent protein (EGFP) or red fluorescent protein (dTomato) facilitated the sensitive pathological assessment of routes of virus spread in vivo. Infection of ferrets with these viruses led to the full spectrum of clinical signs typically associated with distemper in dogs during a rapid, fatal disease course of approximately 2 weeks. Comparison with the ferret-adapted CDV(5804P) and the prototypic wild-type CDV(R252) showed that hematogenous infection of the choroid plexus is not a significant route of virus spread into the CSF. Instead, viral spread into the subarachnoid space in rCDV(SH)-infected animals was triggered by infection of vascular endothelial cells and the hematogenous spread of virus-infected leukocytes from meningeal blood vessels into the subarachnoid space. This resulted in widespread infection of cells of the pia and arachnoid mater of the leptomeninges over large areas of the cerebral hemispheres. The ability to sensitively assess the in vivo spread of a neurovirulent strain of CDV provides a novel model system to study the mechanisms of virus spread into the CSF and the pathogenesis of acute viral meningitis.

Neurophobia among general practice trainees: The evidence, perceived causes and solutions

Introduction

As general practice (GP) is the main source of referrals to neurologists, neurology education for GP trainees is important. We investigated the existence of neurophobia, contributing factors and potential prevention strategies among GP trainees.

In a questionnaire survey interest, knowledge, confidence and perceived difficulty in neurology were compared with different medical specialties. Reasons for difficulty with neurology, postgraduate neurology education experience, learning methods and suggested teaching improvements were examined.

Of 205 GP trainees, 118 (58%) completed the questionnaire. Threshold analyses justified categorical intervals for the Likert responses. Trainees recorded poorer knowledge (p < 0.001), less confidence (p < 0.001) and more perceived difficulty (p < 0.001) with neurology than with any other medical specialty. GP trainees had less interest in neurology than any other medical specialty (Duncan test, p < 0.001). There was a similar gradation in difficulty and confidence perception across medical specialties. Hospital and community-based neurology teaching was graded as “poor” or “very poor” by over 60% of GP trainees. There were multiple perceived causes of neurophobia, including neuroanatomy and poor quality teaching. More organised clinical teaching and referral guidance were suggested to address GP neurophobia.

Neurophobia is common among GP trainees in Northern Ireland. GP trainees have clear and largely uniform ideas on improving their neurology education. GP training posts should reflect the importance of neurology within the GP curriculum.

The radiated energy budget of Chromospheric Plasma in a major solar flare deduced from multi-wavelength observations

This paper presents measurements of the energy radiated by the lower solar atmosphere, at optical, UV, and EUV wavelengths, during an X-class solar flare (SOL2011-02-15T01:56) in response to an injection of energy assumed to be in the form of nonthermal electrons. Hard X-ray observations from RHESSI were used to track the evolution of the parameters of the nonthermal electron distribution to reveal the total power contained in flare accelerated electrons. By integrating over the duration of the impulsive phase, the total energy contained in the nonthermal electrons was found to be >2 × 1031 erg. The response of the lower solar atmosphere was measured in the free–bound EUV continua of H i (Lyman), He i, and He ii, plus the emission lines of He ii at 304 Å and H i (Lyα) at 1216 Å by SDO/EVE, the UV continua at 1600 Å and 1700 Å by SDO/AIA, and the white light continuum at 4504 Å, 5550 Å, and 6684 Å, along with the Ca ii H line at 3968 Å using Hinode/SOT. The summed energy detected by these instruments amounted to ~3 × 1030 erg; about 15% of the total nonthermal energy. The Lyα line was found to dominate the measured radiative losses. Parameters of both the driving electron distribution and the resulting chromospheric response are presented in detail to encourage the numerical modeling of flare heating for this event, to determine the depth of the solar atmosphere at which these line and continuum processes originate, and the mechanism(s) responsible for their generation.

National trends in main causes of hospitalization: a multi-cohort register study of the Finnish working-age population, 1976-2010

Principal Findings: Over the period of 35 years, the risk of hospitalization for cardiovascular diseases and respiratory diseases decreased. Hospitalization for musculoskeletal diseases increased whereas mental and behavioral hospitalizations slightly decreased. The risk of cancer hospitalization decreased marginally in men, whereas in women an upward trend was observed.

Conclusions/Significance: A considerable health transition related to hospitalizations and a shift in the utilization of health care services of working-age men and women took place in Finland between 1976 and 2010.

Background: The health transition theory argues that societal changes produce proportional changes in causes of disability and death. The aim of this study was to identify long-term changes in main causes of hospitalization in working-age population within a nation that has experienced considerable societal change.

Methodology: National trends in all-cause hospitalization and hospitalizations for the five main diagnostic categories were investigated in the data obtained from the Finnish Hospital Discharge Register. The seven-cohort sample covered the period from 1976 to 2010 and consisted of 3,769,356 randomly selected Finnish residents, each cohort representing 25% sample of population aged 18 to 64 years.

Within-host evolution of Burkholderia pseudomallei over a twelve-year chronic carriage infection

UNLABELLED: Burkholderia pseudomallei causes the potentially fatal disease melioidosis. It is generally accepted that B. pseudomallei is a noncommensal bacterium and that any culture-positive clinical specimen denotes disease requiring treatment. Over a 23-year study of melioidosis cases in Darwin, Australia, just one patient from 707 survivors has developed persistent asymptomatic B. pseudomallei carriage. To better understand the mechanisms behind this unique scenario, we performed whole-genome analysis of two strains isolated 139 months apart. During this period, B. pseudomallei underwent several adaptive changes. Of 23 point mutations, 78% were nonsynonymous and 43% were predicted to be deleterious to gene function, demonstrating a strong propensity for positive selection. Notably, a nonsense mutation inactivated the universal stress response sigma factor RpoS, with pleiotropic implications. The genome underwent substantial reduction, with four deletions in chromosome 2 resulting in the loss of 221 genes. The deleted loci included genes involved in secondary metabolism, environmental survival, and pathogenesis. Of 14 indels, 11 occurred in coding regions and 9 resulted in frameshift mutations that dramatically affected predicted gene products. Disproportionately, four indels affected lipopolysaccharide biosynthesis and modification. Finally, we identified a frameshift mutation in both P314 isolates within wcbR, an important component of the capsular polysaccharide I locus, suggesting virulence attenuation early in infection. Our study illustrates a unique clinical case that contrasts a high-consequence infectious agent with a long-term commensal infection and provides further insights into bacterial evolution within the human host.

IMPORTANCE: Some bacterial pathogens establish long-term infections that are difficult or impossible to eradicate with current treatments. Rapid advances in genome sequencing technologies provide a powerful tool for understanding bacterial persistence within the human host. Burkholderia pseudomallei is considered a highly pathogenic bacterium because infection is commonly fatal. Here, we document within-host evolution of B. pseudomallei in a unique case of human infection with ongoing chronic carriage. Genomic comparison of isolates obtained 139 months (11.5 years) apart showed a strong signal of adaptation within the human host, including inactivation of virulence and immunogenic factors, and deletion of pathways involved in environmental survival. Two global regulatory genes were mutated in the 139-month isolate, indicating extensive regulatory changes favoring bacterial persistence. Our study provides insights into B. pseudomallei pathogenesis and, more broadly, identifies parallel evolutionary mechanisms that underlie chronic persistence of all bacterial pathogens.

New insights into the causes of human illness due to consumption of azaspiracid contaminated shellfish

Azaspiracid (AZA) poisoning was unknown until 1995 when shellfish harvested in Ireland caused illness manifesting by vomiting and diarrhoea. Further in vivo/vitro studies showed neurotoxicity linked with AZA exposure. However, the biological target of the toxin which will help explain such potent neurological activity is still unknown. A region of Irish coastline was selected and shellfish were sampled and tested for AZA using mass spectrometry. An outbreak was identified in 2010 and samples collected before and after the contamination episode were compared for their metabolite profile using high resolution mass spectrometry. Twenty eight ions were identified at higher concentration in the contaminated samples. Stringent bioinformatic analysis revealed putative identifications for seven compounds including, glutarylcarnitine, a glutaric acid metabolite. Glutaric acid, the parent compound linked with human neurological manifestations was subjected to toxicological investigations but was found to have no specific effect on the sodium channel (as was the case with AZA). However in combination, glutaric acid (1mM) and azaspiracid (50nM) inhibited the activity of the sodium channel by over 50%. Glutaric acid was subsequently detected in all shellfish employed in the study. For the first time a viable mechanism for how AZA manifests itself as a toxin is presented.

Balancing the (carbon) budget: Using linear inverse models to estimate carbon flows and mass-balance 13C:15N labelling experiments in low oxygen sediments.

Over 1 million km² of seafloor experience permanent low-oxygen conditions within oxygen minimum zones (OMZs). OMZs are predicted to grow as a consequence of climate change, potentially affecting oceanic biogeochemical cycles. The Arabian Sea OMZ impinges upon the western Indian continental margin at bathyal depths (150 - 1500 m) producing a strong depth dependent oxygen gradient at the sea floor. The influence of the OMZ upon the short term processing of organic matter by sediment ecosystems was investigated using in situ stable isotope pulse chase experiments. These deployed doses of ¹³C:¹⁵N labeled organic matter onto the sediment surface at four stations from across the OMZ (water depth 540 - 1100 m; [O₂] = 0.35 - 15 μM). In order to prevent experimentally anoxia, the mesocosms were not sealed. ¹³C and ¹⁵N labels were traced into sediment, bacteria, fauna and ¹³C into sediment porewater DIC and DOC. However, the DIC and DOC flux to the water column could not be measured, limiting our capacity to obtain mass-balance for C in each experimental mesocosm. Linear Inverse Modeling (LIM) provides a method to obtain a mass-balanced model of carbon flow that integrates stable-isotope tracer data with community biomass and biogeochemical flux data from a range of sources. Here we present an adaptation of the LIM methodology used to investigate how ecosystem structure influenced carbon flow across the Indian margin OMZ. We demonstrate how oxygen conditions affect food-web complexity, affecting the linkages between the bacteria, foraminifera and metazoan fauna, and their contributions to benthic respiration. The food-web models demonstrate how changes in ecosystem complexity are associated with oxygen availability across the OMZ and allow us to obtain a complete carbon budget for the stationa where stable-isotope labelling experiments were conducted.

Causes and prevalence of visual impairment among adults in the United States.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the cause-specific prevalence and distribution of blindness and low vision in the United States by age, race/ethnicity, and gender, and to estimate the change in these prevalence figures over the next 20 years. METHODS: Summary prevalence estimates of blindness (both according to the US definition of < or =6/60 [< or =20/200] best-corrected visual acuity in the better-seeing eye and the World Health Organization standard of < 6/120 [< 20/400]) and low vision (< 6/12 [< 20/40] best-corrected vision in the better-seeing eye) were prepared separately for black, Hispanic, and white persons in 5-year age intervals starting at 40 years. The estimated prevalences were based on recent population-based studies in the United States, Australia, and Europe. These estimates were applied to 2000 US Census data, and to projected US population figures for 2020, to estimate the number of Americans with visual impairment. Cause-specific prevalences of blindness and low vision were also estimated for the different racial/ethnic groups. RESULTS: Based on demographics from the 2000 US Census, an estimated 937 000 (0.78%) Americans older than 40 years were blind (US definition). An additional 2.4 million Americans (1.98%) had low vision. The leading cause of blindness among white persons was age-related macular degeneration (54.4% of the cases), while among black persons, cataract and glaucoma accounted for more than 60% of blindness. Cataract was the leading cause of low vision, responsible for approximately 50% of bilateral vision worse than 6/12 (20/40) among white, black, and Hispanic persons. The number of blind persons in the US is projected to increase by 70% to 1.6 million by 2020, with a similar rise projected for low vision. CONCLUSIONS: Blindness or low vision affects approximately 1 in 28 Americans older than 40 years. The specific causes of visual impairment, and especially blindness, vary greatly by race/ethnicity. The prevalence of visual disabilities will increase markedly during the next 20 years, owing largely to the aging of the US population.