34 resultados para ordinary kriging

em QUB Research Portal - Research Directory and Institutional Repository for Queen's University Belfast


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This paper explores how the surface permeability of sandstone blocks changes over time in response to repeated salt weathering cycles. Surface permeability controls the amount of moisture and dissolved salt that can penetrate in and facilitate decay. Connected pores permit the movement of moisture (and hence soluble salts) into the stone interior, and where areas are more or less permeable soluble salts may migrate along preferred pathways at differential rates. Previous research has shown that salts can accumulate in the near-surface zone and lead to partial pore blocking which influences subsequent moisture ingress and causes rapid salt accumulation in the near-surface zone.

Two parallel salt weathering simulations were carried out on blocks of Peakmoor Sandstone of different volumes. Blocks were removed from simulations after 2, 5, 10, 20 and 60 cycles. Permeability measurements were taken for these blocks at a resolution of 20 mm, providing a grid of 100 permeability values for each surface. The geostatistical technique of ordinary kriging was applied to the data to produce a smoothed interpolation of permeability for these surfaces, and hence improve understanding of the evolution of permeability over time in response to repeated salt weathering cycles.

Results illustrate the different responses of the sandstone blocks of different volumes to repeated salt weathering cycles. In both cases, after an initial subtle decline in the permeability (reflecting pore blocking), the permeability starts to increase — reflected in a rise in mean, maximum and minimum values. However, between 10 and 20 cycles, there is a jump in the mean and range permeability of the group A block surfaces coinciding with the onset of meaningful debris release. After 60 cycles, the range of permeability in the group A block surface had increased markedly, suggesting the development of a secondary permeability. The concept of dynamic instability and divergent behaviour is applied at the scale of a single block surface, with initial small-scale differences across a surface having larger scale consequences as weathering progresses.

After cycle 10, group B blocks show a much smaller increase in mean permeability, and the range stays relatively steady — this may be explained by the capillary conditions set up by the smaller volume of the stone, allowing salts to migrate to the ‘back’ of the blocks and effectively relieving stress at the ‘front’ face.

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Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) is known to act as an environmental trigger for many respiratory illnesses. As a pollutant it is difficult to map accurately, as concentrations can vary greatly over small distances. In this study three geostatistical techniques were compared, producing maps of NO2 concentrations in the United Kingdom (UK). The primary data source for each technique was NO2 point data, generated from background automatic monitoring and background diffusion tubes, which are analysed by different laboratories on behalf of local councils and authorities in the UK. The techniques used were simple kriging (SK), ordinary kriging (OK) and simple kriging with a locally varying mean (SKlm). SK and OK make use of the primary variable only. SKlm differs in that it utilises additional data to inform prediction, and hence potentially reduces uncertainty. The secondary data source was Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx) derived from dispersion modelling outputs, at 1km x 1km resolution for the UK. These data were used to define the locally varying mean in SKlm, using two regression approaches: (i) global regression (GR) and (ii) geographically weighted regression (GWR). Based upon summary statistics and cross-validation prediction errors, SKlm using GWR derived local means produced the most accurate predictions. Therefore, using GWR to inform SKlm was beneficial in this study.

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Temporal and spatial patterns of relative sea level (RSL) change in the North of Britain and Ireland during the Holocene are examined. Four episodes, each defined by marked changes in the RSL trend, are identified. Each episode is marked by a rise to a culminating shoreline followed by a fall. Episode HRSL-1 dates from the Younger Dryas to early in the Holocene; HRSL-2 to HRSL-4 occurred later in the Holocene. There is extensive evidence for each episode, and on this basis the spatial distribution of the altitude data for three culminating shorelines and a shoreline formed at the time of the Holocene Storegga Slide tsunami (ca 8110 ± 100 cal. BP) is analysed. Ordinary Kriging is used to determine the general pattern, following which Gaussian Trend Surface Analysis is employed. Recognising that empirical measurements of RSL change can be unevenly distributed spatially, a new approach is introduced which enables the developing pattern to be identified. The patterns for the most widely occurring shorelines were analysed and found to be similar and common centre and axis models were developed for all shorelines. The analyses described provide models of the spatial pattern of Holocene RSL change in the area between ca 8100 cal. BP and ca 1000 cal. BP based on 2262 high resolution shoreline altitude measurements. These models fit the data closely, no shoreline altitude measurement lying more than −1.70 m or +1.82 m from the predicted value. The models disclose a similar pattern to a recently published Glacial Isostatic Adjustment model for present RSL change across the area, indicating that the overall spatial pattern of RSL change may not have varied greatly during the last ca 8000 years.

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Let $\Gamma$ be the class of sequentially complete locally convex spaces such that an existence theorem holds for the linear Cauchy problem $\dot x = Ax$, $x(0) = x_0$ with respect to functions $x: R\to E$. It is proved that if $E\in \Gamma$, then $E\times R^A$ is-an-element-of $\Gamma$ for an arbitrary set $A$. It is also proved that a topological product of infinitely many infinite-dimensional Frechet spaces, each not isomorphic to $\omega$, does not belong to $\Gamma$.