Non-stationary variogram models for geostatistical sampling optimisation: An empirical investigation using elevation data

A problem with use of the geostatistical Kriging error for optimal sampling design is that the design does not adapt locally to the character of spatial variation. This is because a stationary variogram or covariance function is a parameter of the geostatistical model. The objective of this paper was to investigate the utility of non-stationary geostatistics for optimal sampling design. First, a contour data set of Wiltshire was split into 25 equal sub-regions and a local variogram was predicted for each. These variograms were fitted with models and the coefficients used in Kriging to select optimal sample spacings for each sub-region. Large differences existed between the designs for the whole region (based on the global variogram) and for the sub-regions (based on the local variograms). Second, a segmentation approach was used to divide a digital terrain model into separate segments. Segment-based variograms were predicted and fitted with models. Optimal sample spacings were then determined for the whole region and for the sub-regions. It was demonstrated that the global design was inadequate, grossly over-sampling some segments while under-sampling others.

Validation of non‑stationary precipitation series for site‑specific impact assessment: comparison of two statistical downscaling techniques

Statistical downscaling (SD) methods have become a popular, low-cost and accessible means of bridging the gap between the coarse spatial resolution at which climate models output climate scenarios and the finer spatial scale at which impact modellers require these scenarios, with various different SD techniques used for a wide range of applications across the world. This paper compares the Generator for Point Climate Change (GPCC) model and the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM)—two contrasting SD methods—in terms of their ability to generate precipitation series under non-stationary conditions across ten contrasting global climates. The mean, maximum and a selection of distribution statistics as well as the cumulative frequencies of dry and wet spells for four different temporal resolutions were compared between the models and the observed series for a validation period. Results indicate that both methods can generate daily precipitation series that generally closely mirror observed series for a wide range of non-stationary climates. However, GPCC tends to overestimate higher precipitation amounts, whilst SDSM tends to underestimate these. This infers that GPCC is more likely to overestimate the effects of precipitation on a given impact sector, whilst SDSM is likely to underestimate the effects. GPCC performs better than SDSM in reproducing wet and dry day frequency, which is a key advantage for many impact sectors. Overall, the mixed performance of the two methods illustrates the importance of users performing a thorough validation in order to determine the influence of simulated precipitation on their chosen impact sector.

Electromagnetic rogue waves in beam-plasma interactions

The occurrence of rogue waves (freak waves) associated with electromagnetic pulse propagation interacting with a plasma is investigated, from first principles. A multiscale technique is employed to solve the fluid Maxwell equations describing weakly nonlinear circularly polarized electromagnetic pulses in magnetized plasmas. A nonlinear Schrödinger (NLS) type equation is shown to govern the amplitude of the vector potential. A set of non-stationary envelope solutions of the NLS equation are considered as potential candidates for the modeling of rogue waves (freak waves) in beam-plasma interactions, namely in the form of the Peregrine soliton, the Akhmediev breather and the Kuznetsov-Ma breather. The variation of the structural properties of the latter structures with relevant plasma parameters is investigated, in particular focusing on the ratio between the (magnetic field dependent) cyclotron (gyro-)frequency and the plasma frequency. © 2013 IOP Publishing Ltd.

Review of constitutive models for describing the time dependent behaviour of soft clays

Different classes of constitutive models have been proposed to capture the time-dependent behaviour of soft soil (creep, stress relaxation, rate dependency). This paper critically reviews many of the models developed based on understanding of the time dependent stress-strain-stress rate-strain rate behaviour of soils and viscoplasticity in terms of their strengths and weaknesses. Some discussion is also made on the numerical implementation aspects of these models. Typical findings from numerical analyses of geotechnical structures constructed on soft soils are also discussed. The general elastic viscoplastic (EVP) models can roughly be divided into two categories: models based on the concept of overstress and models based on non-stationary flow surface theory. Although general in structure, both categories have their own strengths and shortcomings. This review indicates that EVP analysis is yet to be vastly used by the geotechnical engineers, apparently due to the mathematical complication involved in the formulation of the constitutive models, unconvincing benefit in terms of the accuracy of performance prediction, requirement of additional soil parameter(s), difficulties in determining them, and the necessity of excessive computing resources and time. © 2013 Taylor & Francis.

Algorithms for Hidden Markov Models With Imprecisely Specified Parameters

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are widely used models for sequential data. As with other probabilistic graphical models, they require the specification of precise probability values, which can be too restrictive for some domains, especially when data are scarce or costly to acquire. We present a generalized version of HMMs, whose quantification can be done by sets of, instead of single, probability distributions. Our models have the ability to suspend judgment when there is not enough statistical evidence, and can serve as a sensitivity analysis tool for standard non-stationary HMMs. Efficient inference algorithms are developed to address standard HMM usage such as the computation of likelihoods and most probable explanations. Experiments with real data show that the use of imprecise probabilities leads to more reliable inferences without compromising efficiency.

Hidden Markov Models With Set-Valued Parameters

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are widely used probabilistic models of sequential data. As with other probabilistic models, they require the specification of local conditional probability distributions, whose assessment can be too difficult and error-prone, especially when data are scarce or costly to acquire. The imprecise HMM (iHMM) generalizes HMMs by allowing the quantification to be done by sets of, instead of single, probability distributions. iHMMs have the ability to suspend judgment when there is not enough statistical evidence, and can serve as a sensitivity analysis tool for standard non-stationary HMMs. In this paper, we consider iHMMs under the strong independence interpretation, for which we develop efficient inference algorithms to address standard HMM usage such as the computation of likelihoods and most probable explanations, as well as performing filtering and predictive inference. Experiments with real data show that iHMMs produce more reliable inferences without compromising the computational efficiency.

Non-convex dynamic economic/environmental dispatch with plug-in electric vehicle loads

Electric vehicles are a key prospect for future transportation. A large penetration of electric vehicles has the potential to reduce the global fossil fuel consumption and hence the greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution. However, the additional stochastic loads imposed by plug-in electric vehicles will possibly introduce significant changes to existing load profiles. In his paper, electric vehicles loads are integrated into an 5-unit system using a non-convex dynamic dispatch model. The actual infrastructure characteristics including valve-point effects, load balance constrains and transmission loss have been included in the model. Multiple load profiles are comparatively studied and compared in terms of economic and environmental impacts in order o identify patterns to charge properly. The study as expected shows ha off-peak charging is the best scenario with respect to using less fuels and producing less emissions.

Efficient Non-Linear Idealisations of Aircraft Fuselage Panels in Compression

Aircraft fuselages are complex assemblies of thousands of components and as a result simulation models are highly idealised. In the typical design process, a coarse FE model is used to determine loads within the structure. The size of the model and number of load cases necessitates that only linear static behaviour is considered. This paper reports on the development of a modelling approach to increase the accuracy of the global model, accounting for variations in stiffness due to non-linear structural behaviour. The strategy is based on representing a fuselage sub-section with a single non-linear element. Large portions of fuselage structure are represented by connecting these non-linear elements together to form a framework. The non-linear models are very efficient, reducing computational time significantly

Ion-acoustic waves in a plasma consisting of adiabatic warm ions, non-isothermal electrons and a weakly relativistic electron beam: linear and higher-order nonlinear effects

The nonlinear propagation of finite amplitude ion acoustic solitary waves in a plasma consisting of adiabatic warm ions, nonisothermal electrons, and a weakly relativistic electron beam is studied via a two-fluid model. A multiple scales technique is employed to investigate the nonlinear regime. The existence of the electron beam gives rise to four linear ion acoustic modes, which propagate at different phase speeds. The numerical analysis shows that the propagation speed of two of these modes may become complex-valued (i.e., waves cannot occur) under conditions which depend on values of the beam-to-background-electron density ratio , the ion-to-free-electron temperature ratio , and the electron beam velocity v0; the remaining two modes remain real in all cases. The basic set of fluid equations are reduced to a Schamel-type equation and a linear inhomogeneous equation for the first and second-order potential perturbations, respectively. Stationary solutions of the coupled equations are derived using a renormalization method. Higher-order nonlinearity is thus shown to modify the solitary wave amplitude and may also deform its shape, even possibly transforming a simple pulse into a W-type curve for one of the modes. The dependence of the excitation amplitude and of the higher-order nonlinearity potential correction on the parameters , , and v0 is numerically investigated.

A Description of the Stationary Wave Pattern of a Marine Craft in Shallow and Intermediate Water Depths

A stationary phase model is used to study supercritical waves generated by high speed ferries. Some general relationships in terms of wave angle, propagation direction, dispersion relationship and depth wavelength relationship are explored and discussed. In particular, it is shown that the wave pattern generated by high speed craft at supercritical speeds depends mainly on the relationship of water depth and ship speed and that the wave patterns are similar in terms of location of crests and troughs for a given depth Froude number. In addition it is found that the far field wave pattern can be described adequately using a single moving point source. The theoretical model compares well with towing tank measurements and full scale data over a range of parameters and hull shapes. The paper also demonstrates that the far field wave pattern at supercritical speeds should be non-dimensionalised by water depth and not hull length unlike it is usually done for subcritical speeds.

Non-linear finite-element analysis of punching capacities of steel-concrete bridge deck slabs

Punching failure is the common failure mode in concrete bridge deck slabs when these structural components are subjected to local patch loads, such as tyre loads. Past research has shown that reinforced concrete slabs in girder–slab type bridges have a load-carrying capacity far greater than the ultimate static loads predicted by traditional design methods, because of the presence of compressive membrane action. However, due to the instability problems from punching failure, it is difficult to predict ultimate capacities accurately in numerical analyses. In order to overcome the instability problems, this paper establishes an efficient non-linear finite-element analysis using the commercial finite-element package Abaqus. In the non-linear finite-element analysis, stabilisation methods were adopted and failure criteria were established to predict the ultimate punching behaviour of deck slabs in composite steel–concrete bridges. The proposed non-linear finite-element analysis predictions showed a good correlation on punching capacities with experimental tests.

Evaluation of infilled frames: an updated in-plane-stiffness macro-model considering the effects of vertical loads

The influence of masonry infills on the in-plane behaviour of RC framed structures is a central topic in the seismic evaluation and retrofitting of existing buildings. Many models in the literature use an equivalent strut member in order to represent the infill but, among the parameters influencing the equivalent strut behaviour, the effect of vertical loads acting on the frames is recognized but not quantified. Nevertheless a vertical load causes a non-negligible variation in the in-plane behaviour of infilled frames by influencing the effective volume of the infill. This results in a change in the stiffness and strength of the system. This paper presents an equivalent diagonal pin-jointed strut model taking into account the stiffening effect of vertical loads on the infill in the initial state. The in-plane stiffness of a range of infilled frames was evaluated using a finite element model of the frame-infill system and the cross-section of the strut equivalent to the infill was obtained for different levels of vertical loading by imposing the equivalence between the frame containing the infill and the frame containing the diagonal strut. In this way a law for identifying the equivalent strut width depending on the geometrical and mechanical characteristics of the infilled frame was generalized to consider the influence of vertical loads for use in the practical applications. The strategy presented, limited to the initial stiffness of infilled frames, is preparatory to the definition of complete non-linear cyclic laws for the equivalent strut.