Less of a Puzzle: a new look at the forward forex market

The two-country monetary model is extended to include a consumption externality with habit persistence. The model is simulated using the artificial economy methodology. The 'puzzles' in the forward market are re-examined. The model is able to account for: (a) the low volatility of the forward discount; (b) the higher volatility of expected forward speculative profit; (c) the even higher volatility of the spot return; (d) the persistence in the forward discount; (e) the martingale behavior of spot exchange rates; and (f) the negative covariance between the expected spot return and expected forward speculative profit. It is unable to account for the forward market bias because the volatility of the expected spot return is too large relative to the volatility of the expected forward speculative profit.

Transmission loss allocation in a deregulated electrical energy market

This paper presents a new method for transmission loss allocation in a deregulated electrical power market. The proposed method is based on physical flow through transmission lines. The contributions of individual loads to the line flows are used as basis for allocating transmission losses to different loads. With minimum assumptions, that sound to be reasonable and cannot be rejected, a novel loss allocation formula is derived. The assumptions made are: a number of currents sharing a transmission line distribute themselves over the cross section in the same manner; that distribution causes the minimum possible power loss. Application of the proposed method is straightforward. It requires only a solved power flow and any simple algorithm for power flow tracing. Both active and reactive powers are considered in the loss allocation procedure. Results of application show the accuracy of the proposed method compared with the commonly used procedures.

Mapping the Governance Reform of Welfare to Work in Britain under New Labour

This article draws on Newman's (2001, 2007) typology of the modernization of governance under New Labor, to examine the development of British welfare to work administration. Concentrating on the delivery of active labor market policy, the article suggests network forms of governance occupy a marginal role in welfare to work delivery. Managerialist and hierarchical forms of governance dominate administration of activation policy. In accordance with UK tradition, a national centralized, top down system exercises control of social security and employment services administration, but increasingly seeks to realize its goals through a market system of delivery.

Avandia (TM) - From molecule to market for type 2 diabetes.

Type 2 diabetes is a disease fast approaching epidemic proportions throughout the world. From insulin sensitizers to PPARg agonists, the lecture will outline the successful medicinal chem. and biol. strategy underpinning the discovery and selection of Avandia, an innovative new medicine for this disease.

Desegregation and Place Restructuring in the New Belfast

A sustained reduction in unemployment, economic growth and house price increase have reflected Belfast’s post-conflict renaissance just as readily as the global recession has exposed the fragility of construction-led growth. Rates of segregation had stabilised and new consumption spaces and élite developments further reflected the city’s engagement with globalisation and economic liberalisation. This paper explores the spatial impact of these processes, not least as gentrification has created new layers of residential segregation in a city already preoccupied with high rates of ethno-religious territoriality. A case study of south Belfast connects these shifts to the production of new mixed-religion neighbourhoods. These have the capacity to reduce the relevance of traditional binary identities, but at the same time reproduce new forms of segregation centred on tenure and class. The paper concludes by highlighting the implications for policy and practice, not least as the recession opens new spaces to present alternatives to the market logic.

Social Inclusion or Market Competitiveness? A Comparison of Rural Development Policies in the European Union and the United States

The language of EU rural development policy appears more interested in social inclusion and that of US policy more interested in market competitiveness. We seek to determine why policies directed at rural development in the EU and the USA differ. In both contexts new rural development policies emphasize partnership and participation but we find local participation is used to promote social inclusion in the EU and market competitiveness in the USA. An examination of these dimensions illustrates important transcontinental differences and similarities in rural development policies. We explore the socio-historical reasons for differences in the commitment to social inclusion, while also noting similarities in the priority of market competitiveness.

Understanding New Product Project Performance

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to summarize the accumulated body of knowledge on the performance of new product projects and provide directions for further research. Design/methodology/approach – Using a refined classification of antecedents of new product project performance the research results are meta-analyzed in the literature in order to identify the strength and stability of predictor-performance relationships. Findings – The results reveal that 22 variables have a significant relationship with new product project performance, of which only 12 variables have a sizable relationship. In order of importance these factors are the degree of organizational interaction, R&D and marketing interface, general product development proficiency, product advantage, financial/business analysis, technical proficiency, management skill, marketing proficiency, market orientation, technology synergy, project manager competency and launch activities. Of the 34 variables 16 predictors show potential for moderator effects. Research limitations/implications – The validity of the results is constrained by publication bias and heterogeneity of performance measures, and directions for the presentation of data in future empirical publications are provided. Practical implications – This study helps new product project managers in understanding and managing the performance of new product development projects. Originality/value – This paper provides unique insights into the importance of predictors of new product performance at the project level. Furthermore, it identifies which predictor-performance relations are contingent on other factors.

Rule Britannia!: British Stock Market Returns, 1825-1870

This article presents a new series of monthly equity returns for the British stock market for the period 1825-1870. In addition to calculating capital appreciation and dividend yields, the article also estimates the effect of survivorship bias on returns. Three notable findings emerge from this study. First, stock market returns in the 1825-1870 period are broadly similar for Britain and the United States, although the British market is less risky. Second, real returns in the 1825-1870 period are higher than in subsequent epochs of British history. Third, unlike the modern era, dividends are the most important component of returns.

Europe's New Border Tax.

Instead of abolishing internal border controls in 1993, the European Union (EU) replaced them with VAT and statistical requirements that appear to be just as onerous. For Dutch businesses, the compliance costs of the new requirements are, on average, 5 per cent of the value of their intra-EU trade. The figure is probably higher for other EU Member States. Obviously, the costs constitute a (differentiated) border tax that impedes intra-EU trade. The article analyses the determinants of the compliance costs, as well as their effect on intra-EU trade intensity. The article submits that the differential compliance costs violate the non-discrimination provisions of the EC Treaty. Suggestions are made to reduce them.

Spatial Mobility Intentions, the Labour Market and Incapacity Benefit Claimants Evidence from Northern Ireland

The paper analyses the work-related spatial mobility intentions of incapacity benefit (IB) claimants in Northern Ireland using a new survey dataset. Greater understanding of the prospective mobility of benefit claimants contributes to debates about employability, inclusion in the labour market and arguments about spatial mismatch. The analysis finds that IB claimants are not markedly less mobile than other population groups; that mobility is shaped by age, level of qualification, illness type, ability to drive and motivation; and that geography is important in several ways. The paper concludes by arguing that limited spatial mobility is a good indicator of disadvantage and that spatial mobility should be placed nearer the centre of the design and delivery of labour market policy

‘Towards a Green New Deal on the Island of Ireland: from economic crisis to a new political economy of sustainability’

This article begins from the assumption (which may seem controversial to many) that anyone who thinks that our current economic crisis is a temporary blip until ‘normal service’ (i.e. a return to ‘business as usual’) is resumed, profoundly misunderstands the severity and significance of what’s happening to the global economy and its impacts on the future prosperity of the island of Ireland. The economic recession represents nothing short of a re-structuring of the global economy and the creation of a new dispensation between governments, markets and citizens. The full implications of the re-regulation of the market, with the state bailing out and part nationalising the financial sector in both jurisdictions on the island (as in other parts of the world) have yet to be seen, but what we are witnessing is the emergence of a new economic model. Those who think we can, or even ought to, return to the pre-2008 economic model, are gravely mistaken. The current economic downturn marks the end of the ‘neo-liberal’ model and the beginnings of the transition (an inevitable transition, this article will argue) towards a new low carbon, renewable, green and sustainable economy and society.