53 resultados para model confidence set

em QUB Research Portal - Research Directory and Institutional Repository for Queen's University Belfast


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In the manufacture of granular NPK fertilizer the product is cooled before packaging and storage in moisture-proof bags. It has been shown that the temperature of the fertilizer prior to packing is significant in that at high temperatures, drying of the granules takes place in the bag which causes an increase in the humidity of the air surrounding the granules and thus an increase in moisture content at the granule - granule interface. This surface moisture was shown to increase the likelihood of agglomeration in the fertilizer by a capillary adhesion/unconfined yield stress model. An iterative model was set up to establish conditions that would prevent drying occurring, which takes into account fertilizer drying rate, fertilizer cooling rate cooling rate and the effect of coating oils on the drying mechanism.

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This paper proposes a design method for the realisation of circularly polarised frequency selective surfaces (CP FSS). An equivalent circuit model for a capacitive asymmetric loop FSS is proposed. For this model a set of nonlinear design equation for CP operation is obtained. Based on space mapping of the model and full-wave simulation, a fast converging design method for CP FSS synthesis is demonstrated for the first time. 

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We present results from three-dimensional protein folding simulations in the HP-model on ten benchmark problems. The simulations are executed by a simulated annealing-based algorithm with a time-dependent cooling schedule. The neighbourhood relation is determined by the pull-move set. The results provide experimental evidence that the maximum depth D of local minima of the underlying energy landscape can be upper bounded by D < n(2/3). The local search procedure employs the stopping criterion (In/delta)(D/gamma) where m is an estimation of the average number of neighbouring conformations, gamma relates to the mean of non-zero differences of the objective function for neighbouring conformations, and 1-delta is the confidence that a minimum conformation has been found. The bound complies with the results obtained for the ten benchmark problems. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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This paper presents a social simulation in which we add an additional layer of mass media communication to the social network 'bounded confidence' model of Deffuant et al (2000). A population of agents on a lattice with continuous opinions and bounded confidence adjust their opinions on the basis of binary social network interactions between neighbours or communication with a fixed opinion. There are two mechanisms for interaction. 'Social interaction' occurs between neighbours on a lattice and 'mass communication' adjusts opinions based on an agent interacting with a fixed opinion. Two new variables are added, polarisation: the degree to which two mass media opinions differ, and broadcast ratio: the number of social interactions for each mass media communication. Four dynamical regimes are observed, fragmented, double extreme convergence, a state of persistent opinion exchange leading to single extreme convergence and a disordered state. Double extreme convergence is found where agents are less willing to change opinion and mass media communications are common or where there is moderate willingness to change opinion and a high frequency of mass media communications. Single extreme convergence is found where there is moderate willingness to change opinion and a lower frequency of mass media communication. A period of persistent opinion exchange precedes single extreme convergence, it is characterized by the formation of two opposing groups of opinion separated by a gradient of opinion exchange. With even very low frequencies of mass media communications this results in a move to central opinions followed by a global drift to one extreme as one of the opposing groups of opinion dominates. A similar pattern of findings is observed for Neumann and Moore neighbourhoods.

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We propose an exchange rate model that is a hybrid of the conventional specification with monetary fundamentals and the Evans–Lyons microstructure approach. We estimate a model augmented with order flow variables, using a unique data set: almost 100 monthly observations on interdealer order flow on dollar/euro and dollar/yen. The augmented macroeconomic, or “hybrid,” model exhibits greater in-sample stability and out of sample forecasting improvement vis-à-vis the basic macroeconomic and random walk specifications.

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his paper uses fuzzy-set ideal type analysis to assess the conformity of European leave regulations to four theoretical ideal typical divisions of labour: male breadwinner, caregiver parity, universal breadwinner and universal caregiver. In contrast to the majority of previous studies, the focus of this analysis is on the extent to which leave regulations promote gender equality in the family and the transformation of traditional gender roles. The results of this analysis demonstrate that European countries cluster into five models that only partly coincide with countries’ geographical proximity. Second, none of the countries considered constitutes a universal caregiver model, while the male breadwinner ideal continues to provide the normative reference point for parental leave regulations in a large number of European states. Finally, we witness a growing emphasis at the national and EU levels concerning the universal breadwinner ideal, which leaves gender inequality in unpaid work unproblematized.

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Brown's model for the relaxation of the magnetization of a single domain ferromagnetic particle is considered. This model results in the Fokker-Planck equation of the process. The solution of this equation in the cases of most interest is non- trivial. The probability density of orientations of the magnetization in the Fokker-Planck equation can be expanded in terms of an infinite set of eigenfunctions and their corresponding eigenvalues where these obey a Sturm-Liouville type equation. A variational principle is applied to the solution of this equation in the case of an axially symmetric potential. The first (non-zero) eigenvalue, corresponding to the largest time constant, is considered. From this we obtain two new results. Firstly, an approximate minimising trial function is obtained which allows calculation of a rigorous upper bound. Secondly, a new upper bound formula is derived based on the Euler-Lagrange condition. This leads to very accurate calculation of the eigenvalue but also, interestingly, from this, use of the simplest trial function yields an equivalent result to the correlation time of Coffey et at. and the integral relaxation time of Garanin. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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This paper is concerned with linear and nonlinear magneto- optical effects in multilayered magnetic systems when treated by the simplest phenomenological model that allows their response to be represented in terms of electric polarization, The problem is addressed by formulating a set of boundary conditions at infinitely thin interfaces, taking into account the existence of surface polarizations. Essential details are given that describe how the formalism of distributions (generalized functions) allows these conditions to be derived directly from the differential form of Maxwell's equations. Using the same formalism we show the origin of alternative boundary conditions that exist in the literature. The boundary value problem for the wave equation is formulated, with an emphasis on the analysis of second harmonic magneto-optical effects in ferromagnetically ordered multilayers. An associated problem of conventions in setting up relationships between the nonlinear surface polarization and the fundamental electric field at the interfaces separating anisotropic layers through surface susceptibility tensors is discussed. A problem of self- consistency of the model is highlighted, relating to the existence of resealing procedures connecting the different conventions. The linear approximation with respect to magnetization is pursued, allowing rotational anisotropy of magneto-optical effects to be easily analyzed owing to the invariance of the corresponding polar and axial tensors under ordinary point groups. Required representations of the tensors are given for the groups infinitym, 4mm, mm2, and 3m, With regard to centrosymmetric multilayers, nonlinear volume polarization is also considered. A concise expression is given for its magnetic part, governed by an axial fifth-rank susceptibility tensor being invariant under the Curie group infinityinfinitym.

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Model Driven Architecture supports the transformation from reusable models to executable software. Business representations, however, cannot be fully and explicitly represented in such models for direct transformation into running systems. Thus, once business needs change, the language abstractions used by MDA (e.g. Object Constraint Language / Action Semantics), being low level, have to be edited directly. We therefore describe an Agent-oriented Model Driven Architecture (AMDA) that uses a set of business models under continuous maintenance by business people, reflecting the current business needs and being associated with adaptive agents that interpret the captured knowledge to behave dynamically. Three contributions of the AMDA approach are identified: 1) to Agent-oriented Software Engineering, a method of building adaptive Multi-Agent Systems; 2) to MDA, a means of abstracting high level business-oriented models to align executable systems with their requirements at runtime; 3) to distributed systems, the interoperability of disparate components and services via the agent abstraction.

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Aims.We aim to provide the atmospheric parameters and rotational velocities for a large sample of O- and early B-type stars, analysed in a homogeneous and consistent manner, for use in constraining theoretical models. Methods: Atmospheric parameters, stellar masses, and rotational velocities have been estimated for approximately 250 early B-type stars in the Large (LMC) and Small (SMC) Magellanic Clouds from high-resolution VLT-FLAMES data using the non-LTE TLUSTY model atmosphere code. This data set has been supplemented with our previous analyses of some 50 O-type stars (Mokiem et al. 2006, 2007) and 100 narrow-lined early B-type stars (Hunter et al. 2006; Trundle et al. 2007) from the same survey, providing a sample of ~400 early-type objects. Results: Comparison of the rotational velocities with evolutionary tracks suggests that the end of core hydrogen burning occurs later than currently predicted and we argue for an extension of the evolutionary tracks. We also show that the large number of the luminous blue supergiants observed in the fields are unlikely to have directly evolved from main-sequence massive O-type stars as neither their low rotational velocities nor their position on the H-R diagram are predicted. We suggest that blue loops or mass-transfer binary systems may populate the blue supergiant regime. By comparing the rotational velocity distributions of the Magellanic Cloud stars to a similar Galactic sample, we find that (at 3s confidence level) massive stars (above 8 M?) in the SMC rotate faster than those in the solar neighbourhood. However there appears to be no significant difference between the rotational velocity distributions in the Galaxy and the LMC. We find that the v sin i distributions in the SMC and LMC can modelled with an intrinsic rotational velocity distribution that is a Gaussian peaking at 175 km s-1 (SMC) and 100 km s-1 (LMC) with a 1/e half width of 150 km s-1. We find that in NGC 346 in the SMC, the 10-25 M? main-sequence stars appear to rotate faster than their higher mass counterparts. It is not expected that O-type stars spin down significantly through angular momentum loss via stellar winds at SMC metallicity, hence this could be a reflection of mass dependent birth spin rates. Recently Yoon et al. (2006) have determined rates of GRBs by modelling rapidly rotating massive star progenitors. Our measured rotational velocity distribution for the 10-25 M? stars is peaked at slightly higher velocities than they assume, supporting the idea that GRBs could come from rapid rotators with initial masses as low as 14 M? at low metallicities.

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Extending the work presented in Prasad et al. (IEEE Proceedings on Control Theory and Applications, 147, 523-37, 2000), this paper reports a hierarchical nonlinear physical model-based control strategy to account for the problems arising due to complex dynamics of drum level and governor valve, and demonstrates its effectiveness in plant-wide disturbance handling. The strategy incorporates a two-level control structure consisting of lower-level conventional PI regulators and a higher-level nonlinear physical model predictive controller (NPMPC) for mainly set-point manoeuvring. The lower-level PI loops help stabilise the unstable drum-boiler dynamics and allow faster governor valve action for power and grid-frequency regulation. The higher-level NPMPC provides an optimal load demand (or set-point) transition by effective handling of plant-wide interactions and system disturbances. The strategy has been tested in a simulation of a 200-MW oil-fired power plant at Ballylumford in Northern Ireland. A novel approach is devized to test the disturbance rejection capability in severe operating conditions. Low frequency disturbances were created by making random changes in radiation heat flow on the boiler-side, while condenser vacuum was fluctuating in a random fashion on the turbine side. In order to simulate high-frequency disturbances, pulse-type load disturbances were made to strike at instants which are not an integral multiple of the NPMPC sampling period. Impressive results have been obtained during both types of system disturbances and extremely high rates of load changes, right across the operating range, These results compared favourably with those from a conventional state-space generalized predictive control (GPC) method designed under similar conditions.

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We present experimental results on benchmark problems in 3D cubic lattice structures with the Miyazawa-Jernigan energy function for two local search procedures that utilise the pull-move set: (i) population-based local search (PLS) that traverses the energy landscape with greedy steps towards (potential) local minima followed by upward steps up to a certain level of the objective function; (ii) simulated annealing with a logarithmic cooling schedule (LSA). The parameter settings for PLS are derived from short LSA-runs executed in pre-processing and the procedure utilises tabu lists generated for each member of the population. In terms of the total number of energy function evaluations both methods perform equally well, however. PLS has the potential of being parallelised with an expected speed-up in the region of the population size. Furthermore, both methods require a significant smaller number of function evaluations when compared to Monte Carlo simulations with kink-jump moves. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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A constrained non-linear, physical model-based, predictive control (NPMPC) strategy is developed for improved plant-wide control of a thermal power plant. The strategy makes use of successive linearisation and recursive state estimation using extended Kalman filtering to obtain a linear state-space model. The linear model and a quadratic programming routine are used to design a constrained long-range predictive controller One special feature is the careful selection of a specific set of plant model parameters for online estimation, to account for time-varying system characteristics resulting from major system disturbances and ageing. These parameters act as nonstationary stochastic states and help to provide sufficient degrees-of-freedom to obtain unbiased estimates of controlled outputs. A 14th order non-linear plant model, simulating the dominant characteristics of a 200 MW oil-fired pou er plant has been used to test the NPMPC algorithm. The control strategy gives impressive simulation results, during large system disturbances and extremely high rate of load changes, right across the operating range. These results compare favourably to those obtained with the state-space GPC method designed under similar conditions.