13 resultados para mark-recapture method

em QUB Research Portal - Research Directory and Institutional Repository for Queen's University Belfast


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Aims/Hypothesis: To describe the epidemiology of childhood-onset Type 1 (insulin-dependent) diabetes in Europe, the EURODIAB collaborative group has established prospective, geographically-defined registers of children diagnosed under 15 years. A total of 16,362 cases were registered by 44 centres during the period 1989-1994. The registers cover a population of approximately 28 million children with most European countries represented. Methods In most centres a primary and a secondary source of ascertainment were used so that the completeness of registration could be assessed by the capture-recapture method. Ecological correlation and regression analyses were used to study the relationship between incidence and various environmental, health and economic indicators. Findings: The standardised average annual incidence rate during the period 1989-94 ranged from 3.2 cases per 100,000 per annum in the Former Yugoslavian Republic of Macedonia to 40.2 cases per 100,000 per annum in Finland. Indicators of national prosperity such as infant mortality (r= -0.64) and gross domestic product (r= 0.58) were most strongly and significantly correlated with incidence rate, and previously-reported associations with coffee consumption (r= 0.51), milk consumption (r= 0.58) and latitude (r= 0.40) were also observed. Conclusion/Interpretation: The wide variation in childhood type 1 diabetes incidence rates within Europe could be partially explained by indicators of national prosperity. These indicators could reflect differences in environmental risk factors such as nutrition or lifestyle that are important in determining a country's incidence rate.

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Average longevity of the mountain hare (Lepus timidus L., 1758) has been estimated at nine years in the wild (Macdonald D. and Barrett, P. 1993 Mammals of Britain and Europe. Harper Collins Publishers, London) with a maximum recorded age of 18 years for one marked animal (Angerbjörn, A. and Flux, J. E. C. 1995 Lepus timidus. Mammalian Species 495: 1–11). However, the longevity of the Irish hare (L. t. hibernicus Bell 1837) is entirely unknown. A total of 14 Irish hares was trapped and tagged at Belfast International Airport, Co. Antrim from February to April 2005. The sex, age (juvenile or adult) and weight of each animal were recorded. Adults were taken as those individuals >8-10 months old defined by the fusing of the notch between the apophysis and diaphysis of the tibia and humerus (Flux, J. E. C. 1970 Journal of Zoology 161: 75-123). Individual identification was made by a system of colourcoded ear tags (Roxan iD Ltd. Selkirk, Scotland) being inserted in the centre of the pinna of each ear. Each ear tag (6 × 34 mm) and puncture site was disinfected with 70 per cent ethanol prior to insertion. An adult male, #001/002 ‘Blue/Blue’, was tagged on 3 March 2005 weighing 3.8 kg and was sighted during a return site visit on 4 April 2007. An adult female, #026/003 ‘Green/Yellow’, was tagged on 15 April 2005 weighing 4.0 kg and was sighted during return visits on 25 March 2010 and 19 October 2010. The latest possible date of birth for both individuals was spring/summer 2004. Consequently, they were at least 3 years and 6.5 years old, respectively. This is the first record of minimum Irish hare longevity in the wild. These observations suggest that ear tagging does not compromise animal welfare and is an effective means of long-term monitoring. Future research may utilize capture-mark-recapture methods.

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This paper undertakes a content analysis of the discourse on the Open Method of Coordination on Health Care (OMC/HC) in order to show how equity and solidarity are increasingly linked to optimisation and, as such, how neoliberalism increasingly frames health care. Some of the side-effects of this reframing for politics are highlighted: legitimating and extending EU governance, reducing the space for oppositional formations and limited citizenship. The analysis begins by interrogating the broader context of the Lisbon Strategy II, after which the techniques of the OMC/HC and its substantive outputs are analysed.

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The increasing need to understand complex products and systems with long life spans, presents a significant challenge to designers who increasingly require a broader understanding of the operational aspects of the system. This demands an evolution in current design practice, as designers are often constrained to provide a subsystem solution without full knowledge of the global system operation. Recently there has been a push to consider value centric approaches which should facilitate better or more rapid convergence to design solutions with predictable completion schedules. Value Driven Design is one such approach, in which value is used as the system top level objective function. This provides a broader view of the system and enables all sub-systems and components to be designed with a view to the effect on project value. It also has the capacity to include value expressions for more qualitative aspects, such as environmental impact. However, application of the method to date has been restricted to comparing value in a programme where the lifespan is fixed and known a priori. This paper takes a novel view of value driven design through the surplus value objective function, and shows how it can be used to identify key sensitivities to guide designers in design trade-off decisions. By considering a new time based approach it can be used to identify optimum programme life-span and hence allow trade-offs over the whole product life.

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Bioresorbable polymers such as PLA have an important role to play in the development of temporary implantable medical devices with significant benefits over traditional therapies. However, development of new devices is hindered by high manufacturing costs associated with difficulties in processing the material. A major problem is the lack of insight on material degradation during processing. In this work, a method of quantifying degradation of PLA using IR spectroscopy coupled with computational chemistry and chemometric modeling is examined. It is shown that the method can predict the quantity of degradation products in solid-state samples with reasonably good accuracy, indicating the potential to adapt the method to developing an on-line sensor for monitoring PLA degradation in real-time during processing.

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The aim of this study was to develop a multiplex loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) method capable of detecting Escherichia coli generally and verocytotoxigenic E. coli (VTEC) specifically in beef and bovine faeces. The LAMP assay developed was highly specific (100%) and able to distinguish between E. coli and VTEC based on the amplification of the phoA, and stx1 and/or stx2 genes, respectively. In the absence of an enrichment step, the limit of detection 50% (LOD50) of the LAMP assay was determined to be 2.83, 3.17 and 2.83-3.17 log CFU/g for E. coli with phoA, stx1 and stx2 genes, respectively, when artificially inoculated minced beef and bovine faeces were tested. The LAMP calibration curves generated with pure cultures, and spiked beef and faeces, suggested that the assay had good quantification capability. Validation of the assay, performed using retail beef and bovine faeces samples, demonstrated good correlation between counts obtained by the LAMP assay and by a conventional culture method, but suggested the possibility of false negative LAMP results for 12.5-14.7% of samples tested. The multiplex LAMP assay developed potentially represents a rapid alternative to culture for monitoring E.coli levels in beef or faeces and it would provide additional information on the presence of VTEC. However, some further optimisation is needed to improve detection sensitivity.

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The machining of carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) composite presents a significant challenge to the industry, and a better understanding of machining mechanism is the essential fundament to enhance the machining quality. In this study, a new energy based analytical method was developed to predict the cutting forces in orthogonal machining of unidirectional CFRP with fiber orientations ranging from 0° to 75°. The subsurface damage in cutting was also considered. Thus, the total specific energy for cutting has been estimated along with the energy consumed for forming new surfaces, friction, fracture in chip formation and subsurface debonding. Experiments were conducted to verify the validity of the proposed model.