The Day After Tomorrow: Transition Management, Spatial Planning & the Low Carbon Economy

Many of the societal challenges that current spatial planning practice claims to be addressing (climate change, peak oil, obesity, aging society etc) encompass issues and timescales that lie beyond the traditional scope planning policy (Campbell 2006). The example of achieving a low carbon economy typifies this in that it demands a process of society-wide transition, involving steering a wide range of factors (markets, infrastructure, governance, individual behaviour etc). Such a process offers a challenge to traditional approaches to planning as they cannot be guided by a fixed blueprint, given the timescales involved (up to 50 years) and an enhanced level of uncertainty, social resistance, lack of control over implementation and a danger of ‘policy lock in’ (Kemp et al 2007). One approach to responding to these challenges is the concept of transition management which has emerged from studies of science, technology and innovation (Geels 2002, Markard et al 2012). Although not without criticism, this perspective attempts to uncertainty and complexity encompassing long term visions that integrates multi-level, multi-actor and multi-domain perspectives (Rotmans et al 2001).
 
Given its origins, research on transition management has tended to neglect spatial contexts (Coenen et al 2012) and, related to this, it’s relationship with spatial planning is poorly understood. Using the example of the low carbon transition, this paper will review the relationships between the concepts, methodologies and goals of transition management and spatial planning to explore whether a closer integration of the two fields offers benefits to achieving the long term challenges facing society.
 

Mapping Ireland’s Energy Pathways: Characterizing and Catalyzing Transition

In 2015 Ireland has arguably begun to make its first bold steps in confronting the challenges of energy transition, with the objective of a “low carbon, climate resilient and environmentally sustainable economy by the end of the
year 2050” expressed in the 2015 Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Bill and the 2015 Energy Bill acknowledging that energy transformation relied on a new breed of ‘energy citizens’. These represent the first formal articulation of Ireland’s ambition to engage in a radical, long-term and far-reaching transition process, and raises a myriad of questions over how this can be operationalised, resourced and whether it can maintain political momentum. A range of perspectives on these issues is provided in the growing body of literature on transition theories (Rotmans et al 2001, Markard et al 2012) and the inter-disciplinary EPA-funded CC Transitions project, based at Queen’s University Belfast, represents an attempt to translate this into the context of Ireland’s institutions and technological profile. By relating this to international research on sustainability transitions, which conceptualises transitions as multi-level, multi-phase and multi-actor processes, this paper will explore the opportunities of alternative pathways that could take Ireland towards a more progressing, inclusive and effective low carbon future. Drawing on a number of case studies it will highlight some of the capacities for transition required in Irish society: where these exist, how they are being built or enabled, and the barriers to wider social change.

The Belfast Victorian Terrace: A Sustainable Approach?

To help the building of new low-carbon housing, recent years have seen the widespread demolition of Victorian housing in UK cities. In this regard, Belfast is no different from its counterparts on the British mainland, where Compulsory Purchase Orders force people to sell and vacate their terraced homes to make way for newly constructed 'sustainable' housing. The global economic downturn has temporarily slowed down this process leaving many Belfast terraces now blocked up awaiting future demolition. This stay of execution is an unlikely but welcome opportunity to review and assess the true value to owner, streetscape and city of this important and common house-type. Important questions need to be asked. Should sound Victorian terraces be demolished? What is the genuine cost of demolition and replacement in terms of community and environment? With reference to case studies in a Belfast context, the argument will be made that new is not necessarily better, that the existing Victorian terrace is an important and valuable resource and one that, with intelligent intervention, offers a genuinely sustainable alternative to new-build housing.

Northern Ireland's Consent to the Climate Change Act 2008: An Illusion?

This is the first in a two-part analysis of Northern Ireland’s engagement with the climate governance regime created by the UK Climate Change Act 2008. It contends that UK devolution has shaped this national regime and may itself be shaped by the national low carbon transition, particularly in the case of the UK’s most devolved region. In essence, while Northern Ireland’s consent to the application of the Act appeared to represent a long-term commitment to share power in the interests of present and future generations and thus to devolution itself, this first article argues that it was also potentially illusory. The second article argues that making an effective commitment to climate governance will require its devolved administration to allow constitutional arrangements designed for conflict resolution to mature. Failure to do so will have important implications for the UK’s putative ‘national’ low carbon transition and the longer term viability of devolution in the region.

‘Towards a Green New Deal on the Island of Ireland: from economic crisis to a new political economy of sustainability’

This article begins from the assumption (which may seem controversial to many) that anyone who thinks that our current economic crisis is a temporary blip until ‘normal service’ (i.e. a return to ‘business as usual’) is resumed, profoundly misunderstands the severity and significance of what’s happening to the global economy and its impacts on the future prosperity of the island of Ireland. The economic recession represents nothing short of a re-structuring of the global economy and the creation of a new dispensation between governments, markets and citizens. The full implications of the re-regulation of the market, with the state bailing out and part nationalising the financial sector in both jurisdictions on the island (as in other parts of the world) have yet to be seen, but what we are witnessing is the emergence of a new economic model. Those who think we can, or even ought to, return to the pre-2008 economic model, are gravely mistaken. The current economic downturn marks the end of the ‘neo-liberal’ model and the beginnings of the transition (an inevitable transition, this article will argue) towards a new low carbon, renewable, green and sustainable economy and society.

Effect of Carbon Reduction on the Toughness of 9CrWVTaN Steels

Nitride-strengthened, reduced activation, martensitic steel is anticipated to have higher creep strength because of the remarkable thermal stability of nitrides. Two nitride-strengthened, reduced activation martensitic steels with different carbon contents were prepared to investigate the microstructure and mechanical property changes with decreasing carbon content. It has been found that both steels had the microstructure of full martensite with fine nitrides dispersed homogeneously in the matrix and displayed extremely high strength but poor toughness. Compared with the steel with low carbon content (0.005 pct in wt pct), the steel with high carbon content (0.012 pct in wt pct) had not only the higher strength but also the higher impact toughness and grain coarsening temperature, which was related to the carbon content. On the one hand, carbon reduction led to Ta-rich inclusions; on the other hand, the grain grew larger when normalized at high temperature because of the absence of Ta carbonitrides, which would decrease impact toughness. The complicated Al2O3 inclusions in the two steels have been revealed to be responsible for the initiated cleavage fracture by acting as the critical cracks.

Carbon availability affects nitrogen source utilisation by Hymenoscyphus ericae

We compared the ability of five strains of the ericoid mycorrhizal fungus Hymenoscyphus ericae to utilise glutamine, ammonium or nitrate at high or low carbon (C) availability. The pattern of intraspecific variation in growth was affected by C availability. When C supply was high, growth differences between strains were explained by the total amount of nitrogen (N) taken up, suggesting variation in uptake kinetics. Under C-limiting conditions, strain differences were linked with their nitrogen use efficiency, implying intraspecific differences in N metabolism. The relationship between growth on glutamine and pH shifts in the media indicated that there was intraspecific variation in glutamine transporters. In addition, the correlation between pH changes and the amount of glutamine-N recovered as ammonium in the media indicated that there were intraspecific variations within the enzymatic pathways involved in glutamine metabolism. Our findings, compared with those of a previous study involving the same ericoid strains, draw attention to the temporal variation in nitrogen source utilisation by ericoid mycorrhizal fungi when maintained in axenic culture.

Planning, Devolution and the Territorialisation of Wind Energy in the UK

The decarbonisation of energy systems draw a new set of stakeholders into debates over energy generation, engage a complex set of social, political, economic and environmental processes and impact at a wide range of geographical scales, including local landscape changes, national energy markets and regional infrastructure investment. This paper focusses on a particular geographic scale, that of the regions/nations of the UK (Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland), who have been operating under devolved arrangements since the late 1990s, coinciding with the mass deployment of wind energy. The devolved administrations of the UK possess an asymmetrical set of competencies over energy policy, yet also host the majority of the UK wind resource. This context provides a useful way to consider the different ways in which geographies of "territory" are reflected in energy governance, such through techno-rational assessments of demand or infrastructure investment, but also through new spatially-defined institutions that seek to develop their own energy future, using limited regulatory competencies. By focussing on the way the devolved administrations have used their responsibilities for planning over the last decade this paper will assess the way in which the spatial politics of wind energy is giving rise to renewed forms of territorialisation of natural resources. In so doing, we aim to contribute to clarifying the questions raised by Hodson and Marvin (2013) on whether low carbon futures will reinforce or challenge dominant ways of organising relationships between the nation-state, regions, energy systems and the environment.

Adaptable housing design for climate change adaptation

It is predicted that climate change will result in rising sea levels, more frequent and extreme weather events, hotter and drier summers and warmer and wetter winters. This will have a significant impact on the design of buildings, how they are kept cool and how they are weathered against more extreme climatic conditions. The residential sector is already a significant environmental burden with high associated operational energy. Climate change, and a growing population requiring residence, has the potential to exacerbate this problem seriously. New paradigms for residential building design are required to enable low-carbon dioxide operation to mitigate climate change. They must also face the reality of inevitable climate change and adopt climate change adaptation strategies to cope with future scenarios. However, any climate adaptation strategy for dwellings must also be cognisant of adapting occupant needs, influenced by ageing populations and new technologies. This paper presents concepts and priorities for changing how society designs residential buildings by designing for adaptation. A case study home is analysed in the context of its stated aims of low energy and adaptability. A post-occupancy evaluation of the house is presented, and future-proofing strategies are evaluated using climate projection data for future climate change scenarios.