When does information about causal structure improve statistical reasoning?

Base rate neglect on the mammography problem can be overcome by explicitly presenting a causal basis for the typically vague false-positive statistic. One account of this causal facilitation effect is that people make probabilistic judgements over intuitive causal models parameterized with the evidence in the problem. Poorly defined or difficult-to-map evidence interferes with this process, leading to errors in statistical reasoning. To assess whether the construction of parameterized causal representations is an intuitive or deliberative process, in Experiment 1 we combined a secondary load paradigm with manipulations of the presence or absence of an alternative cause in typical statistical reasoning problems. We found limited effects of a secondary load, no evidence that information about an alternative cause improves statistical reasoning, but some evidence that it reduces base rate neglect errors. In Experiments 2 and 3 where we did not impose a load, we observed causal facilitation effects. The amount of Bayesian responding in the causal conditions was impervious to the presence of a load (Experiment 1) and to the precise statistical information that was presented (Experiment 3). However, we found less Bayesian responding in the causal condition than previously reported. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of our findings and the suggestion that there may be population effects in the accuracy of statistical reasoning.

Whose statistical reasoning is improved by information about causal structure?

People often struggle when making Bayesian probabilistic estimates on the basis of competing sources of statistical evidence. Recently, Krynski and Tenenbaum (Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 136, 430–450, 2007) proposed that a causal Bayesian framework accounts for peoples’ errors in Bayesian reasoning and showed that, by clarifying the causal relations among the pieces of evidence, judgments on a classic statistical reasoning problem could be significantly improved. We aimed to understand whose statistical reasoning is facilitated by the causal structure intervention. In Experiment 1, although we observed causal facilitation effects overall, the effect was confined to participants high in numeracy. We did not find an overall facilitation effect in Experiment 2 but did replicate the earlier interaction between numerical ability and the presence or absence of causal content. This effect held when we controlled for general cognitive ability and thinking disposition. Our results suggest that clarifying causal structure facilitates Bayesian judgments, but only for participants with sufficient understanding of basic concepts in probability and statistics.

Temporal and statistical information in causal structure learning

Three experiments examined children’s and adults’ abilities to use statistical and temporal information to distinguish between common cause and causal chain structures. In Experiment 1, participants were provided with conditional probability information and/or temporal information and asked to infer the causal structure of a three-variable mechanical system that operated probabilistically. Participants of all ages preferentially relied on the temporal pattern of events in their inferences, even if this conflicted with statistical information. In Experiments 2 and 3, participants observed a series of interventions on the system, which in these experiments operated deterministically. In Experiment 2, participants found it easier to use temporal pattern information than statistical information provided as a result of interventions. In Experiment 3, in which no temporal pattern information was provided, children from 6-7 years, but not younger children, were able to use intervention information to make causal chain judgments, although they had difficulty when the structure was a common cause. The findings suggest that participants, and children in particular, may find it more difficult to use statistical information than temporal pattern information because of its demands on information processing resources. However, there may also be an inherent preference for temporal information.

Making the law accessible to non-lawyers: effects of different kinds of expertise on perceived usability of online legal information services

To help design an environment in which professionals without legal training can make effective use of public sector legal information on planning and the environment - for Add-Wijzer, a European e-government project - we evaluated their perceptions of usefulness and usability. In concurrent think-aloud usability tests, lawyers and non-lawyers carried out information retrieval tasks on a range of online legal databases. We found that non-lawyers reported twice as many difficulties as those with legal training (p = 0.001), that the number of difficulties and the choice of database affected successful completion, and that the non-lawyers had surprisingly few problems understanding legal terminology. Instead, they had more problems understanding the syntactical structure of legal documents and collections. The results support the constraint attunement hypothesis (CAH) of the effects of expertise on information retrieval, with implications for the design of systems to support the effective understanding and use of information.

Human information retrieval

Information retrieval in the age of Internet search engines has become part of ordinary discourse and everyday practice: "Google" is a verb in common usage. Thus far, more attention has been given to practical understanding of information retrieval than to a full theoretical account. In Human Information Retrieval, Julian Warner offers a comprehensive overview of information retrieval, synthesizing theories from different disciplines (information and computer science, librarianship and indexing, and information society discourse) and incorporating such disparate systems as WorldCat and Google into a single, robust theoretical framework. There is a need for such a theoretical treatment, he argues, one that reveals the structure and underlying patterns of this complex field while remaining congruent with everyday practice. Warner presents a labor theoretic approach to information retrieval, building on his previously formulated distinction between semantic and syntactic mental labor, arguing that the description and search labor of information retrieval can be understood as both semantic and syntactic in character. Warner's information science approach is rooted in the humanities and the social sciences but informed by an understanding of information technology and information theory. The chapters offer a progressive exposition of the topic, with illustrative examples to explain the concepts presented. Neither narrowly practical nor largely speculative, Human Information Retrieval meets the contemporary need for a broader treatment of information and information systems.

Thermodynamics, structure, and dynamics in room temperature ionic liquids: The case of 1-butyl-3-methyl imidazolium hexafluorophosphate ([bmim][PF6])

A detailed investigation of the phase diagram of 1-butyl-3-methyl imidazolium hexafluorophosphate ([bmim][PF6]) is presented on the basis of a wide set of experimental data accessing thermodynamic, structural, and dynamical properties of this important room temperature ionic liquid (RTIL). The combination of quasi adiabatic, continuous calorimetry, wide angle neutron and X-ray diffraction, and quasi elastic neutron scattering allows the exploration of many novel features of this material. Thermodynamic and microscopic structural information is derived on both glassy and crystalline states and compared with results that recently appeared in the literature allowing direct information to be obtained on the existence of two crystalline phases that were not previously characterized and confirming the view that RTILs show a substantial degree of order (even in their amorphous states), which resembles the crystalline order. We highlight a strong connection between structure and dynamics, showing the existence of three temperature ranges in the glassy state across which both the spatial correlation and the dynamics change. The complex crystalline polymorphism in [bmim][PF6] also is investigated; we compare our findings with the corresponding findings for similar RTILs. These results provide a strong experimental basis for the exploration of the features of the phase diagram of RTILs and for the further study of longer alkyl chain salts.

Temporal information and children's and adults' causal inferences

Three experiments examined whether children and adults would use temporal information as a cue to the causal structure of a three-variable system, and also whether their judgements about the effects of interventions on the system would be affected by the temporal properties of the event sequence. Participants were shown a system in which two events B and C occurred either simultaneously (synchronous condition) or in a temporal sequence (sequential condition) following an initial event A. The causal judgements of adults and 6-7-year-olds differed between the conditions, but this was not the case for 4-year-olds' judgements. However, unlike those of adults, 6-7-year-olds' intervention judgements were not affected by condition, and causal and intervention judgements were not reliably consistent in this age group. The findings support the claim that temporal information provides an important cue to causal structure, at least in older children. However, they raise important issues about the relationship between causal and intervention judgements.

Roles for the subiculum in spatial information processing, memory, motivation and the temporal control of behaviour

The subiculum is in a pivotal position governing the output of the hippocampal formation. Despite this, it is a rather under-explored and sometimes ignored structure. Here, we discuss recent data indicating that the subiculum participates in a wide range of neurocognitive functions and processes. Some of the functions of subiculum are relatively well-known-these include providing a relatively coarse representation of space and participating in, and supporting certain aspects of, memory (particularly in the dynamic bridging of temporal intervals). The subiculum also participates in a wide variety of other neurocognitive functions too. however. Much less well-known are roles for the subiculum, and particularly the ventral subiculum, in the response to fear, stress and anxiety, and in the generation of motivated behaviour (particularly the behaviour that underlies drug addiction and the response to reward). There is an emerging suggestion that the subiculum participates in the temporal control of behaviour. It is notable that these latter findings have emerged from a consideration of instrumental behaviour using operant techniques; it may well be the case that the use of the watermaze or similar spatial tasks to assess subicular function (on the presumption that its functions are very similar to the hippocampus proper) has obscured rather than revealed neurocognitive functions of subiculum. The anatomy of subiculum suggests it participates in a rather subtle fashion in a very broad range of functions, rather than in a relatively more isolated fashion in a narrower range of functions, as might be the case for

Demographics and landscape features determine intrariver population structure in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.): the case of the River Moy in Ireland

Contemporary genetic structure of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) in the River Moy in Ireland is shown here to be strongly related to landscape features and population demographics, with populations being defined largely by their degree of physical isolation and their size. Samples of juvenile salmon were collected from the 17 major spawning areas on the river Moy and from one spawning area in each of five smaller nearby rivers. No temporal allele frequency differences were observed within locations for 12 microsatellite loci, whereas nearly all spatial samples differed significantly, suggesting that each was a separate population. Bayesian clustering and landscape genetic analyses suggest that these populations can be combined hierarchically into five genetically informative larger groupings. Lakes were found to be the single most important determinant of the observed population structure. Spawning area size was also an important factor. The salmon population of the closest nearby river resembled genetically the largest Moy population grouping. In addition, we showed that anthropogenic influences on spawning habitats, in this case arterial drainage, can affect relationships between populations. Our results show that Atlantic salmon biodiversity can be largely defined by geography, and thus, knowledge of landscape features (for example, as characterized within Geographical Information Systems) has the potential to predict population structure in other rivers without an intensive genetic survey, or at least to help direct sampling. This approach of combining genetics and geography, for sampling and in subsequent statistical analyses, has wider application to the investigation of population structure in other freshwater/anadromous fish species and possibly in marine fish and other organisms.

Ligand and structure-based methodologies for the prediction of the activity of G protein-coupled receptor ligands

Accurate in silico models for the quantitative prediction of the activity of G protein-coupled receptor (GPCR) ligands would greatly facilitate the process of drug discovery and development. Several methodologies have been developed based on the properties of the ligands, the direct study of the receptor-ligand interactions, or a combination of both approaches. Ligand-based three-dimensional quantitative structure-activity relationships (3D-QSAR) techniques, not requiring knowledge of the receptor structure, have been historically the first to be applied to the prediction of the activity of GPCR ligands. They are generally endowed with robustness and good ranking ability; however they are highly dependent on training sets. Structure-based techniques generally do not provide the level of accuracy necessary to yield meaningful rankings when applied to GPCR homology models. However, they are essentially independent from training sets and have a sufficient level of accuracy to allow an effective discrimination between binders and nonbinders, thus qualifying as viable lead discovery tools. The combination of ligand and structure-based methodologies in the form of receptor-based 3D-QSAR and ligand and structure-based consensus models results in robust and accurate quantitative predictions. The contribution of the structure-based component to these combined approaches is expected to become more substantial and effective in the future, as more sophisticated scoring functions are developed and more detailed structural information on GPCRs is gathered.

Information Disclosure, Market Discipline and the Management of Bank Capital: Evidence from the Chinese Financial Sector

Is there evidence that market forces effectively discipline risk management behaviour within Chinese financial institutions? This study analyses information from a comprehensive sample of Chinese banks over the 1998-2008 period. Market discipline is captured through the impact of four sets of factors namely, market concentration, interbank deposits, information disclosure, and ownership structure. We find some evidence of a market disciplining effect in that: (i) higher (lower) levels of market concentration lead banks to operate with a lower (higher) capital buffer; (ii) joint-equity banks that disclose more information to the public maintain larger capital ratios; (iii) full state ownership reduces the sensitivity of changes in a bank's capital buffer to its level of risk;(iv) banks that release more transparent financial information hold more capital against their non-performing loans. © 2010 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Factor structure and validity of the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) in a sample of mentally disordered offenders

Investigations of the factor structure of the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) have produced conflicting results. The current study assessed the factor structure of the AUDIT for a group of Mentally Disordered Offenders (MDOs) and examined the pattern of scoring in specific subgroups. The sample comprised 2005 MDOs who completed a battery of tests including the AUDIT. Confirmatory factor analyses revealed that a two-factor solution – alcohol consumption and alcohol-related consequences – provided the best data fit for AUDIT scores. A three-factor solution provided an equally good fit, but the second and third factors were highly correlated and a measure of parsimony also favoured the two-factor solution. This study provides useful information on the factor structure of the AUDIT amongst a large MDO population, while also highlighting the difficulties associated with the presence of people with mental health problems in the criminal justice system.

Macroecological patterns and niche structure in a new marine food web

The integration of detailed information on feeding interactions with measures of abundance and body mass of individuals provides a powerful platform for understanding ecosystem organisation. Metabolism and, by proxy, body mass constrain the flux, turnover and storage of energy and biomass in food webs. Here, we present the first food web data for Lough Hyne, a species rich Irish Sea Lough. Through the application of individual-and size-based analysis of the abundance-body mass relationship, we tested predictions derived from the metabolic theory of ecology. We found that individual body mass constrained the flux of biomass and determined its distribution within the food web. Body mass was also an important determinant of diet width and niche overlap, and predator diets were nested hierarchically, such that diet width increased with body mass. We applied a novel measure of predator-prey biomass flux which revealed that most interactions in Lough Hyne were weak, whereas only a few were strong. Further, the patterning of interaction strength between prey sharing a common predator revealed that strong interactions were nearly always coupled with weak interactions. Our findings illustrate that important insights into the organisation, structure and stability of ecosystems can be achieved through the theoretical exploration of detailed empirical data.