Do fertility transitions influence infant mortality declines? Evidence from early modern Germany

The timing and sequencing of fertility transitions and early-life mortality declines in historical Western societies indicate that reductions in sibship (number of siblings) may have contributed to improvements in infant health. Surprisingly, however, this demographic relationship has received little attention in empirical research. We outline the difficulties associated with establishing the effect of sibship on infant mortality and discuss the inherent bias associated with conventional empirical approaches. We offer a solution that permits an empirical test of this relationship while accounting for reverse causality and potential omitted variable bias. Our approach is illustrated by evaluating the causal impact of family size on infant mortality using genealogical data from 13 German parishes spanning the sixteenth, seventeenth, eighteenth, and nineteenth centuries. Overall, our findings do not support the hypothesis that declining fertility led to increased infant survival probabilities in historical populations.

Excess mortality in Type 1 diabetes diagnosed in childhood and adolescence: a systematic review of population-based cohorts

Aims: Systematic review of mortality in childhood-/adolescent-diagnosed Type 1 diabetes and examination of factors explaining the mortality variation between studies. 
Methods: Relevant studies were identified from systematic searches of MEDLINE and EMBASE. Observed and expected numbers of deaths were extracted, and standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. Negative binomial regression was used to investigate association between mortality and study/country characteristics.
Results: Thirteen relevant publications with mortality data were identified describing 23 independent studies. SMRs varied markedly ranging from 0 to 854 (chi-squared = 70.68,df = 21, p<0.0001). Significant associations were observed between SMR and mid-year of follow-up [incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.95, 95 % CI 0.91–0.99 equivalent to a 5 % decrease per year], between SMR and infant mortality rate (IRR 1.07, 95 % CI 1.02–1.12, a 7 % increase for each death per 1,000 live births) and, after omitting an outlier, between SMR and health expenditure as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) (IRR 0.79, 95 % CI 0.68–0.93, a 21 % decrease for each one percent increase in GDP). No relationship was detected between SMR and a country’s childhood diabetes incidence rate or GDP.
Conclusions: Excess mortality in childhood-/adolescent diagnosed Type 1 diabetes is apparent across countries worldwide. Excesses were less marked in more recent studies and in countries with lower infant mortality and higher health expenditure.

Progress and the Lack of Progress in Addressing Infant Health and Infant Health Inequalities in Ireland during the 20th Century

There is a growing literature which documents the importance of early life environment for outcomes across the life cycle. Research, including studies based on Irish data, demonstrates that those who experience better childhood conditions go on to be wealthier and healthier adults. Therefore, inequalities at birth and in childhood shape inequality in wellbeing in later life, and the historical evolution of the mortality and morbidity of children born in Ireland is important for understanding the current status of the Irish population. In this paper, I describe these patterns by reviewing the existing literature on infant health in Ireland over the course of the 20th century. Up to the 1950s, infant mortality in Ireland (both North and South) was substantially higher than in other developed countries, with a large penalty for those born in urban areas. The subsequent reduction in this penalty, and the sustained decline in infant death rates, occurred later than would be expected from the experience in other contexts. Using records from the Rotunda Lying-in Hospital in Dublin, I discuss sources of disparities in stillbirth in the early 1900s. Despite impressive improvements in death rates since that time, a comparison with those born at the end of the century reveals that Irish children continue to be born unequal. Evidence from studies which track people across the life course, for example research on the returns to birthweight, suggests that the economic cost of this early life inequality is substantial.

Is childhood type 1 diabetes a wealth-related disease? An ecological analysis of European incidence rates

Aims/Hypothesis: To describe the epidemiology of childhood-onset Type 1 (insulin-dependent) diabetes in Europe, the EURODIAB collaborative group has established prospective, geographically-defined registers of children diagnosed under 15 years. A total of 16,362 cases were registered by 44 centres during the period 1989-1994. The registers cover a population of approximately 28 million children with most European countries represented. Methods In most centres a primary and a secondary source of ascertainment were used so that the completeness of registration could be assessed by the capture-recapture method. Ecological correlation and regression analyses were used to study the relationship between incidence and various environmental, health and economic indicators. Findings: The standardised average annual incidence rate during the period 1989-94 ranged from 3.2 cases per 100,000 per annum in the Former Yugoslavian Republic of Macedonia to 40.2 cases per 100,000 per annum in Finland. Indicators of national prosperity such as infant mortality (r= -0.64) and gross domestic product (r= 0.58) were most strongly and significantly correlated with incidence rate, and previously-reported associations with coffee consumption (r= 0.51), milk consumption (r= 0.58) and latitude (r= 0.40) were also observed. Conclusion/Interpretation: The wide variation in childhood type 1 diabetes incidence rates within Europe could be partially explained by indicators of national prosperity. These indicators could reflect differences in environmental risk factors such as nutrition or lifestyle that are important in determining a country's incidence rate.

Improved prognosis for congenital nephrotic syndrome of the Finnish type in Irish families

Congenital nephrotic syndrome of the Finnish type is a rare autosomal recessive disease with a high infant mortality without aggressive treatment. The biochemical basis of the disease is not understood fully but the disease locus has been mapped recently to chromosome 19q12-q13.1 in Finnish families. This paper describes the clinical features and outcome of 20 patients in Ireland with congenital nephrotic syndrome of the Finnish type who have presented since 1980. Before 1987, all infants died by the age of 3 years. After the introduction of daily intravenous albumin infusion, nutritional support, elective bilateral nephrectomy, and renal transplantation, mortality in the past decade has fallen to 30%, with no deaths in the past five years. Genetic linkage analysis was performed in six families in whom DNA was available and the locus responsible was mapped to the same region on chromosome 19 as in Finnish families, suggesting that Irish families share the same disease locus.

The role of angiogenic and antiangiogenic factors in the second trimester in the prediction of preeclampsia in pregnant women with type 1 diabetes

OBJECTIVE To assess the association between circulating angiogenic and antiangiogenic factors in the second trimester and risk of preeclampsia in women with type 1 diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Maternal plasma concentrations of placental growth factor (PlGF), soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase 1 (sFlt-1), and soluble endoglin (sEng) were available at 26 weeks of gestation in 540 women with type 1 diabetes enrolled in the Diabetes and Preeclampsia Intervention Trial.

RESULTS Preeclampsia developed in 17% of pregnancies (n = 94). At 26 weeks of gestation, women in whom preeclampsia developed later had significantly lower PlGF (median [interquartile range]: 231 pg/mL [120–423] vs. 365 pg/mL [237–582]; P < 0.001), higher sFlt-1 (1,522 pg/mL [1,108–3,393] vs. 1,193 pg/mL [844–1,630] P < 0.001), and higher sEng (6.2 ng/mL [4.9–7.9] vs. 5.1 ng/mL[(4.3–6.2]; P < 0.001) compared with women who did not have preeclampsia. In addition, the ratio of PlGF to sEng was significantly lower (40 [17–71] vs. 71 [44–114]; P < 0.001) and the ratio of sFlt-1 to PlGF was significantly higher (6.3 [3.4–15.7] vs. 3.1 [1.8–5.8]; P < 0.001) in women who later developed preeclampsia. The addition of the ratio of PlGF to sEng or the ratio of sFlt-1 to PlGF to a logistic model containing established risk factors (area under the curve [AUC], 0.813) significantly improved the predictive value (AUC, 0.850 and 0.846, respectively; P < 0.01) and significantly improved reclassification according to the integrated discrimination improvement index (IDI) (IDI scores 0.086 and 0.065, respectively; P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS These data suggest that angiogenic and antiangiogenic factors measured during the second trimester are predictive of preeclampsia in women with type 1 diabetes. The addition of the ratio of PlGF to sEng or the ratio of sFlt-1 to PlGF to established clinical risk factors significantly improves the prediction of preeclampsia in women with type 1 diabetes.

Preeclampsia is characterized by the development of hypertension and new-onset proteinuria during the second half of pregnancy (1,2), leading to increased maternal morbidity and mortality (3). Women with type 1 diabetes are at increased risk for development of preeclampsia during pregnancy, with rates being two-times to four-times higher than that of the background maternity population (4,5). Small advances have come from preventive measures, such as low-dose aspirin in women at high risk (6); however, delivery remains the only effective intervention, and preeclampsia is responsible for up to 15% of preterm births and a consequent increase in infant mortality and morbidity (7).

Although the etiology of preeclampsia remains unclear, abnormal placental vascular remodeling and placental ischemia, together with maternal endothelial dysfunction, hemodynamic changes, and renal pathology, contribute to its pathogenesis (8). In addition, over the past decade accumulating evidence has suggested that an imbalance between angiogenic factors, such as placental growth factor (PlGF), and antiangiogenic factors, such as soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase 1 (sFlt-1) and soluble endoglin (sEng), plays a key role in the pathogenesis of preeclampsia (8,9). In women at low risk (10–13) and women at high risk (14,15), concentrations of angiogenic and antiangiogenic factors are significantly different between women who later develop preeclampsia (lower PlGF, higher sFlt-1, and higher sEng levels) compared with women who do not.

Few studies have specifically focused on circulating angiogenic factors and risk of preeclampsia in women with diabetes, and the results have been conflicting. In a small study, higher sFlt-1 and lower PlGF were reported at the time of delivery in women with diabetes who developed preeclampsia (16). In a longitudinal prospective cohort of pregnant women with diabetes, Yu et al. (17) reported increased sFlt-1 and reduced PlGF in the early third trimester as potential predictors of preeclampsia in women with type 1 diabetes, but they did not show any difference in sEng levels in women with preeclampsia compared with women without preeclampsia. By contrast, Powers et al. (18) reported only increased sEng in the second trimester in women with pregestational diabetes who developed preeclampsia.

The aim of this study, which was significantly larger than the previous studies highlighted, was to assess the association between circulating angiogenic (PlGF) and antiangiogenic (sFlt-1 and sEng) factors and the risk of preeclampsia in women with type 1 diabetes. A further aim was to evaluate the added predictive ability and clinical usefulness of angiogenic factors and established risk factors for preeclampsia risk prediction in women with type 1 diabetes.

Genuine savings and future well-being in Germany, 1850-2000

Genuine Savings (GS), also known as ‘net adjusted savings’, is a composite indicator of the sustainability of economic development. Genuine Savings reflects year-on-year changes in the total wealth or capital of a country, including net investment in produced capita, investment in human capital, depletion of natural resources, and damage caused by pollution. A negative Genuine Savings rate suggests that the stock of national wealth is declining and that future utility must be less than current utility, indicating that economic development is non-sustainable (Hamilton and Clemens, 1999). We make use of data over a 150 year period to examine the relationship between Genuine Savings and a number of indicators of well-being over time, and compare the relative changes in human, produced, and components of natural capital over the period. Overall, we find that the magnitude of genuine savings is positively related to changes in future consumption, with some evidence of a cointegrating relationship. However, the relationships between genuine savings and infant mortality or average heights are less clear.

From Angela's Ashes to the Celtic Tiger: Early Life Conditions and Adult Health in Ireland

We use data from the Irish census and exploit regional and temporal variation in infant mortality rates over the 20th century to examine effects of early life conditions on later life health. The urban mortality penalty collapsed in Ireland in the years right after World War II. Our main identification is public health interventions centered on improved sanitation and food safety, which we believed played a leading role in eliminating the Irish urban infant mortality penalty. Our estimates suggest that a unit decrease in mortality rates at time of birth reduces the probability of being disabled as an adult by about 12–18%

Site Distribution at the Edge of the Palaeolithic World: A Nutritional Niche Approach

This paper presents data from the English Channel area of Britain and Northern France on the spatial distribution of Lower to early Middle Palaeolithic pre-MIS5 interglacial sites which are used to test the contention that the pattern of the richest sites is a real archaeological distribution and not of taphonomic origin. These sites show a marked concentration in the middle-lower reaches of river valleys with most being upstream of, but close to, estimated interglacial tidal limits. A plant and animal database derived from Middle-Late Pleistocene sites in the region is used to estimate the potentially edible foods and their distribution in the typically undulating landscape of the region. This is then converted into the potential availability of macronutrients (proteins, carbohydrates, fats) and selected micronutrients. The floodplain is shown to be the optimum location in the nutritional landscape (nutriscape). In addition to both absolute and seasonal macronutrient advantages the floodplains could have provided foods rich in key micronutrients, which are linked to better health, the maintenance of fertility and minimization of infant mortality. Such places may have been seen as ‘good (or healthy) places’ explaining the high number of artefacts accumulated by repeated visitation over long periods of time and possible occupation. The distribution of these sites reflects the richest aquatic and wetland successional habitats along valley floors. Such locations would have provided foods rich in a wide range of nutrients, importantly including those in short supply at these latitudes. When combined with other benefits, the high nutrient diversity made these locations the optimal niche in northwest European mixed temperate woodland environments. It is argued here that the use of these nutritionally advantageous locations as nodal or central points facilitated a healthy variant of the Palaeolithic diet which permitted habitation at the edge of these hominins’ range.

Elevated serum phosphate predicts mortality in renal transplant recipients

BACKGROUND.: High serum phosphate has been identified as an important contributor to the vascular calcification seen in patients with chronic kidney disease (Block et al., Am J Kidney Dis 1998; 31: 607). In patients on hemodialysis, elevated serum phosphate levels are an independent predictor of mortality (Block et al., Am J Kidney Dis 1998; 31: 607; Block, Curr Opin Nephrol Hypertens 2001; 10: 741). The aim of this study was to investigate whether an elevated serum phosphate level was an independent predictor of mortality in patients with a renal transplant.
METHODS.: Three hundred seventy-nine asymptomatic renal transplant recipients were recruited between June 2000 and December 2002. Serum phosphate was measured at baseline and prospective follow-up data were collected at a median of 2441 days after enrolment.
RESULTS.: Serum phosphate was significantly higher in those renal transplant recipients who died at follow-up when compared with those who were still alive at follow-up (P<0.001). In Kaplan-Meier analysis, serum phosphate concentration was a significant predictor of mortality (P=0.0001). In multivariate Cox regression analysis, serum phosphate concentration remained a statistically significant predictor of all-cause mortality after adjustment for traditional cardiovascular risk factors, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and high sensitivity C reactive protein (P=0.036) and after adjustment for renal graft failure (P=0.001).
CONCLUSIONS.: The results of this prospective study are the first to show that a higher serum phosphate is a predictor of mortality in patients with a renal transplant and suggest that serum phosphate provides additional, independent, prognostic information to that provided by traditional risk factors in the risk assessment of patients with a renal transplant.

Impaired endothelium-dependent vasodilatation is a novel predictor of mortality in intensive care

Objective: Endothelial function may be impaired in critical illness. We hypothesized that impaired endothelium-dependent vasodilatation is a predictor of mortality in critically ill patients.
Design: Prospective observational cohort study.
Setting: Seventeen-bed adult intensive care unit in a tertiary referral university teaching hospital. Patients: Patients were recruited within 24 hrs of admission to the intensive care unit.
Interventions: The SphygmoCor Mx system was used to derive the aortic augmentation index from radial artery pulse pressure waveforms. Endothelium-dependent vasodilatation was calculated as the change in augmentation index in response to an endothelium-dependent vasodilator (salbutamol).
Measurements and Main Results: Demographics, severity of illness scores, and physiological parameters were collected. Statistically significant predictors of mortality identified using single regressor analysis were entered into a multiple logistic regression model. Receiver operator characteristic curves were generated. Ninety-four patients completed the study. There were 80 survivors and 14 nonsurvivors. The Simplified Acute Physiology Score II, the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score, leukocyte count, and endothelium-dependent vasodilatation conferred an increased risk of mortality. In logistic regression analysis, endothelium-dependent vasodilatation was the only predictor of mortality with an adjusted odds ratio of 26.1 (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.3-159.5). An endothelium-dependent vasodilatation value of 0.5% or less predicted intensive care unit mortality with a sensitivity of 79% (CI, 59-88%) and specificity of 98% (CI, 94-99%).
Conclusions: In vivo bedside assessment of endothelium-dependent vasodilatation is an independent predictor of mortality in the critically ill. We have shown it to be superior to other validated severity of illness scores with high sensitivity and specificity.

Differential Associations of Job Control Components With Mortality: A Cohort Study, 1986-2005

Inconsistent evidence of the hypothesized favorable effects of high job control on health may have resulted from a failure to treat job control as a multifactor concept. The authors studied whether the 2 components of job control, decision authority and skill discretion, were differentially associated with cause-specific mortality in 13,510 Finnish forest company employees with no history of severe illness. Surveys on work characteristics were carried out in 1986 and 1996, and the respondents were followed up until the end of 2005 by use of the Statistics Finland National Death Registry. During a mean follow-up of 15.5 years, 981 participants died. In the analyses adjusted for confounders, employees with high and intermediate levels of skill discretion had a lower all-cause mortality risk than those with low skill discretion, with hazard ratios of 0.84 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.69, 1.02) and 0.81 (95% CI: 0.69, 0.96), respectively. In contrast, high decision authority was associated with elevated risks of all-cause, cardiovascular, and alcohol-related mortality, with hazard ratios of 1.28 (95% CI: 1.06, 1.54), 1.49 (95% CI: 1.11, 2.02), and 2.03 (95% CI: 1.03, 4.00), respectively. The results suggest that job control is not an unequivocal concept in relation to mortality; decision authority and skill discretion show different and to some extent opposite associations.

Donor ABCB1 Variant Associates with Increased Risk for Kidney Allograft Failure

The impact of variation within genes responsible for the disposition and metabolism of calcineurin inhibitors (CNIs) on clinical outcomes in kidney transplantation is not well understood. Furthermore, the potential influence of donor, rather than recipient, genotypes on clinical endpoints is unknown. Here, we investigated the associations between donor and recipient gene variants with outcome among 4471 white, CNI-treated kidney transplant recipients. We tested for 52 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) across five genes: CYP3A4, CYP3A5, ABCB1 (MDR1; encoding P-glycoprotein), NR1I2 (encoding the pregnane X receptor), and PPIA (encoding cyclophilin). In a discovery cohort of 811 patients from Birmingham, United Kingdom, kidney donor CC genotype at C3435T (rs1045642) within ABCB1, a variant known to alter protein expression, was associated with an increased risk for long-term graft failure compared with non-CC genotype (hazard ratio [HR], 1.69; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.20-2.40; P=0.003). No other donor or recipient SNPs were associated with graft survival or mortality. We validated this association in 675 donors from Belfast, United Kingdom (HR, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.21-2.32; P=0.002), and in 2985 donors from the Collaborative Transplant Study (HR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.08-3.13; P=0.006). In conclusion, these data suggest that an ABCB1 variant known to alter protein expression represents an attractive candidate for future study and risk stratification in kidney transplantation.