Applying species distribution modelling to identify areas of high conservation value for endangered species: A case study using Margaritifera margaritifera (L.)

The development and implementation of a population supplementation and restoration plan for any endangered species should involve an understanding of the species’ habitat requirements prior to the release of any captive bred individuals. The freshwater pearl mussel, Margaritifera margaritifera, has undergone dramatic declines over the last century and is now globally endangered. In Northern Ireland, the release of captive bred individuals is being used to support wild populations and repatriate the species in areas where it once existed. We employed a combination of maximum entropy modelling (MAXENT) and Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMM) to identify ecological parameters necessary to support wild populations using GIS-based landscape scale and ground-truthed habitat scale environmental parameters. The GIS-based landscape scale model suggested that mussel occurrence was associated with altitude and soil characteristics including the carbon, clay, sand, and silt content. Notably, mussels were associated with a relatively narrow band of variance indicating that M. margaritifera has a highly specific landscape niche. The ground-truthed habitat scale model suggested that mussel occurrence was associated with stable consolidated substrates, the extent of bankside trees, presence of indicative macrophyte species and fast flowing water. We propose a three phase conservation strategy for M. margaritifera identifying suitable areas within rivers that (i) have a high conservation value yet needing habitat restoration at a local level, (ii) sites for population supplementation of existing populations and (iii) sites for species reintroduction to rivers where the mussel historically occurred but is now locally extinct. A combined analytical approach including GIS-based landscape scale and ground-truthed habitat scale models provides a robust method by which suitable release sites can be identified for the population supplementation and restoration of an endangered species. Our results will be highly influential in the future management of M. margaritifera in Northern Ireland.

Functional responses of the intertidal amphipod Echinogammarus marinus: effects of prey supply, model selection and habitat complexity.

The influence of predation in structuring ecological communities can be informed by examining the shape and magnitude of the functional response of predators towards prey. We derived functional responses of the ubiquitous intertidal amphipod Echinogammarus marinus towards one of its preferred prey species, the isopod Jaera nordmanni. First, we examined the form of the functional response where prey were replaced following consumption, as compared to the usual experimental design where prey density in each replicate is allowed to deplete. E. marinus exhibited Type II functional responses, i.e. inversely density-dependent predation of J. nordmanni that increased linearly with prey availability at low densities, but decreased with further prey supply. In both prey replacement and non-replacement experiments, handling times and maximum feeding rates were similar. The non-replacement design underestimated attack rates compared to when prey were replaced. We then compared the use of Holling’s disc equation (assuming constant prey density) with the more appropriate Rogers’ random predator equation (accounting for prey depletion) using the prey non-replacement data. Rogers’ equation returned significantly greater attack rates but lower maximum feeding rates, indicating that model choice has significant implications for parameter estimates. We then manipulated habitat complexity and found significantly reduced predation by the amphipod in complex as opposed to simple habitat structure. Further, the functional response changed from a Type II in simple habitats to a sigmoidal, density-dependent Type III response in complex habitats, which may impart stability on the predator−prey interaction. Enhanced habitat complexity returned significantly lower attack rates, higher handling times and lower maximum feeding rates. These findings illustrate the sensitivity of the functional response to variations in prey supply, model selection and habitat complexity and, further, that E. marinus could potentially determine the local exclusion and persistence of prey through habitat-mediated changes in its predatory functional responses.

Habitat for Humanity: Calibrating Best Practice Against the MDGs

Poverty alleviation lies at the heart of contemporary international initiatives on development. The key to development is the creation of an environment in which people can develop their potential, leading productive, creative lives in accordance with their needs, interests and faith. This entails, on the one hand, protecting the vulnerable from things that threaten their survival, such as inadequate nutrition, disease, conflict, natural disasters and the impact of climate change, thereby enhancing the poor’s capabilities to develop resilience in difficult conditions. On the other hand, it also requires a means of empowering the poor to act on their own behalf, as individuals and communities, to secure access to resources and the basic necessities of life such as water, food, shelter, sanitation, health and education. ‘Development’, from this perspective, seeks to address the sources of human insecurity, working towards ‘freedom from want, freedom from fear’ in ways that empower the vulnerable as agents of development (not passive recipients of benefaction).

Recognition of the magnitude of the problems confronted by the poor and failure of past interventions to tackle basic issues of human security led the United Nations (UN) in September 2000 to set out a range of ambitious, but clearly defined, development goals to be achieved by 2015. These are known as the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The intention of the UN was to mobilise multilateral international organisations, non-governmental organisations and the wider international community to focus attention on fulfilling earlier promises to combat global poverty. This international framework for development prioritises: the eradication of extreme poverty and hunger; achieving universal primary education; promoting gender equality and empowering women; reducing child mortality; improving maternal health; combating HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases; ensuring environmental sustainability; and developing a global partnership for development. These goals have been mapped onto specific targets (18 in total) against which outcomes of associated development initiatives can be measured and the international community held to account. If the world achieves the MDGs, more than 500 million people will be lifted out of poverty. However, the challenges the goals represent are formidable. Interim reports on the initiative indicate a need to scale-up efforts and accelerate progress.
Only MDG 7, Target 11 explicitly identifies shelter as a priority, identifying the need to secure ‘by 2020 a significant improvement in the lives of at least 100 million slum dwellers’. This raises a question over how Habitat for Humanity’s commitment to tackling poverty housing fits within this broader international framework designed to allievate global poverty. From an analysis of HFH case studies, this report argues that the processes by which Habitat for Humanity tackles poverty housing directly engages with the agenda set by the MDGs. This should not be regarded as a beneficial by-product of the delivery of decent, affordable shelter, but rather understood in terms of the ways in which Habitat for Humanity has translated its mission and values into a participatory model that empowers individuals and communities to address the interdependencies between inadequate shelter and other sources of human insecurity. What housing can deliver is as important as what housing itself is.

Examples of the ways in which Habitat for Humanity projects engage with the MDG framework include the incorporation of sustainable livelihoods strategies, up-grading of basic infrastructure and promotion of models of good governance. This includes housing projects that have also offered training to young people in skills used in the construction industry, microfinanced loans for women to start up their own home-based businesses, and the provision of food gardens. These play an important role in lifting families out of poverty and ensuring the sustainability of HFH projects. Studies of the impact of improved shelter and security of livelihood upon family life and the welfare of children evidence higher rates of participation in education, more time dedicated to study and greater individual achievement. Habitat for Humanity projects also typically incorporate measures to up-grade the provision of basic sanitation facilities and supplies of safe, potable drinking water. These measures not only directly help reduce mortality rates (e.g. diarrheal diseases account for around 2 million deaths annually in children under 5), but also, when delivered through HFH project-related ‘community funds’, empower the poor to mobilise community resources, develop local leadership capacities and even secure de facto security of tenure from government authorities.

In the process of translating its mission and values into practical measures, HFH has developed a range of innovative practices that deliver much more than housing alone. The organisation’s participatory model enables both direct beneficiaries and the wider community to tackle the insecurities they face, unlocking latent skills and enterprise, building sustainable livelihood capabilities. HFH plays an important role as a catalyst for change, delivering through the vehicle of housing the means to address the primary causes of poverty itself. Its contribution to wider development priorities deserves better recognition. In calibrating the success of HFH projects in terms of units completed or renovated alone, the significance of the process by which HFH realises these outcomes is often not sufficiently acknowledged, both within the organisation and externally. As the case studies developed in the report illustrate, the methodologies Habitat for Humanity employs to address the issue of poverty housing within the developing world, place the organisation at the centre of a global strategic agenda to address the root causes of poverty through community empowerment and the transformation of structures of governance.

Given this, the global network of HFH affiliates constitutes a unique organisational framework to faciliate sharing resources, ideas and practical experience across a diverse range of cultural, political and institutional environments. This said, it is apparent that work needs to be done to better to faciliate the pooling of experience and lessons learnt from across its affiliates. Much is to be gained from learning from less successful projects, sharing innovative practices, identifying strategic partnerships with donors, other NGOs and CBOs, and engaging with the international development community on how housing fits within a broader agenda to alleviate poverty and promote good governance.

Range expansion in an invasive small mammal: influence of life-history and habitat quality.

Invasive species pose a major threat to biodiversity but provide an opportunity to describe the processes that lead to changes in a species’ range. The bank vole (Myodes glareolus) is an invasive rodent that was introduced to Ireland in the early twentieth century. Given its continuing range expansion, the substantial empirical data on its spread thus far, and the absence of any eradication program, the bank vole in Ireland represents a unique model system for studying the mechanisms influencing the rate of range expansion in invasive small mammals. We described the invasion using a reaction–diffusion model informed by empirical data on life history traits and demographic parameters. We subsequently modelled the processes involved in its range expansion using a rule-based spatially explicit simulation. Habitat suitability interacted with density-dependent parameters to influence dispersal, most notably the density at which local populations started to donate emigrating individuals, the number of dispersing individuals and the direction of dispersal. Whilst local habitat variability influenced the rate of spread, on a larger scale the invasion resembled a simple reaction–diffusion process. Our results suggest a Type 1 range expansion where the rate of expansion is generally constant over time, but with some evidence for a lag period following introduction. We demonstrate that a two-parameter empirical model and a rule-based spatially explicit simulation are sufficient to accurately describe the invasion history of a species that exhibits a complex, density-dependent pattern of dispersal.

Additional Accommodation Church of St George and St Thomas

A vibrant inner city parish needed space for meetings, language classes, children’s play and other support accommodation as well as a clearer link between the interior of the listed church and the space outside.

The project builds itself about the entrance to the church. The form is manipulated such that the intervention recedes from those entering the church, drawing them into the plan before becoming readable as an addition. The resultant poché between this entrance sequence and the fabric of the church is hollowed out to provide the required accommodation. These rooms are insulated and lined in cork to allow for their use separate to the main body of the church. With budget at a premium the construction methodology was developed from an analysis of traditional Irish boat building techniques, which allowed the use of the solid timber to act as the primary structure with no additional material support.

Constructed in solid walnut the intervention reads with the existing brick interior and yet is clearly identifiable as a contemporary addition.

Aims / Objectives Questions

1 To accommodate new space inside an existing protected structure.
2 To form a new threshold between interior and exterior.
3 To develop an affordable means of construction that would be durable and rapid to erect.
4 To make a contemporary addition in sympathy with the qualities of the existing protect structure, in line with best conservation practice and research.
5 Traditional forms of construction as a model for contemporary technologies.


Principal Investigator: Clancy Moore Architects –Colm Moore

Co-investigator(s): Andrew Clancy, Mathew O’Malley

Funding partner/ Client: Select Vestry of St George and St Thomas

Finance. €35’000

Date (start – finished) Start June 2008 – Completed December 2008

Identifying optimal sites for natural recovery and restoration of impacted biogenic habitats in a special area of conservation using hydrodynamic and habitat suitability modelling

Selection of sites for successful restoration of impacted shellfish populations depends on understanding the dispersion capability and habitat requirements of the species involved. In Strangford Lough, Northern Ireland, the horse mussel (Modiolus modiolus) biogenic reefs cover only a fraction of their historical range with the remaining reefs badly damaged and requiring restoration. Previous experimental trials suggest that translocation of horse mussels accelerates reef recovery and has therefore been proposed as a suitable restoration technique. We used a series of coupled hydrodynamic and particle dispersal models to assess larval dispersion from remnant and translocated populations to identify suitable areas for adult live M. modiolus translocation in Strangford Lough, Northern Ireland. A maximum entropy model (MAXENT) was used to identify if dispersing larvae could reach habitat suitable for adult M. modiolus. From these we predicted if translocated mussels will reseed themselves or be able to act as larval sources for nearby reefs. The dispersal models showed that the remnant M. modiolus populations are largely self-recruiting with little connectivity between them. The majority of larvae settled near the sources and movement was largely dependent on the tides and not influenced by wind or waves. Higher reef elevation resulted in larvae being able to disperse further away from the release point. However, larval numbers away from the source population are likely to be too low for successful recruitment. There was also little connectivity between the Irish Sea and Strangford Lough as any larvae entering the Lough remained predominantly in the Strangford Narrows. The areas covered by these self-seeding populations are suitable for M. modiolus translocation according to the MAXENT model. As a result of this work and in conjunction with other field work we propose a combination of total protection of all remaining larval sources and small scale translocations onto suitable substrata in each of the identified self-recruiting areas.

Role of Predalors, Habitat Attributes, and Spatial Autocorrelation on the Distribution of Eggs in the Northern Spectacled Salamander (Salamandrina perspicillata)

We predicted that the probability of egg occurrence of salamander Salamandrina perspicillata depended on stream features and predation by native crayfish Austropotamobius fulcisianus and the introduced trout Salmo trutta. We assessed the presence of S. perspicillata at 54 sites within a natural reserve of southern Tuscany, Italy. Generalized linear models with binomial errors were constructed using egg presence/absence and altitude, stream mean size and slope, electrical conductivity, water pH and temperature, and a predation factor, defined according to the presence/absence of crayfish and trout. Some competing models also included an autocovariate term, which estimated how much the response variable at any one sampling point reflected response values at surrounding points. The resulting models were compared using Akaike's information criterion. Model selection led to a subset of 14 models with Delta AIC(c) <7 (i.e., models ranging from substantial support to considerably less support), and all but one of these included an effect of predation. Models with the autocovariate term had considerably more support than those without the term. According to multimodel inference, the presence of trout and crayfish reduced the probability of egg occurrence from a mean level of 0.90 (SE limits: 0.98-0.55) to 0.12 (SE limits: 0.34-0.04). The presence of crayfish alone had no detectable effects (SE limits: 0.86-0.39). The results suggest that introduced trout have a detrimental effect on the reproductive output of S. perspicillata and confirm the fundamental importance of distinguishing the roles of endogenous and exogenous forces that act on population distribution.

Habitat Isolation Reduces the Temporal Stability of Island Ecosystems in the Face of Flood Disturbance

Natural ecosystems are increasingly exposed to multiple anthropogenic stressors, including land-use change, deforestation, agricultural intensification, and urbanisation, all of which have led to widespread habitat fragmentation, which is also likely to be amplified further by predicted climate change. The potential interactive effects of these different stressors cannot be determined by studying each in isolation, although such synergies have been largely ignored in ecological field studies to date. Here, we use a model system of naturally fragmented islands in a braided river network, which is exposed to periodic inundation, to investigate the interactive effects of habitat isolation and flood disturbance. Food web structure was similar across the islands during periods of hydrological stability, but several key properties were altered in the aftermath of flood disturbance, based on distance of the islands from the regional source pool of species: taxon richness and mean food chain length declined with habitat isolation after flooding, while the proportion of basal species increased. Greater species turnover through time reflected the slower process of re-colonisation on the more distant islands following disturbance. Increased variability of several food web properties over a 1-year period highlighted the reduced temporal stability of isolated habitat fragments. Many of these effects reflected the differential successes of predator and prey species at re-colonising the islands: even though larger, more mobile consumers may reach the more distant islands first, they cannot establish populations until the lower trophic levels have successfully reassembled. These results highlight the susceptibility of fragmented ecosystems to environmental perturbations. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

The Limits of Local Accommodation: Why Contentious Events Remain Prone to Conflict in Northern Ireland

This article examines the difficulties of finding local solutions to the problem of contentious events in contemporary Northern Ireland. In so doing, it offers a sociological perspective on fundamental divisions in Northern Ireland: between classes and between communities. It shows how its chosen case study—parades and associated protests in north Belfast—exemplifies the most fundamental problem that endures in post-Agreement Northern Ireland, namely that political authority is not derived from a common civic culture (as is the norm in Western liberal democracy) but rather that legitimacy is still founded on the basis of the culture of either one or the other community. Haugaard’s reflections on authority and legitimacy are used to explore Northern Ireland’s atypical experience of political conflict vis-`a-vis the Western liberal democratic model. The Bourdieusian concepts of field illusio and doxa help to explain why it is that parading remains such an important political and symbolic touchstone in this society.

Spatio-temporal Change in Crowned (Propithecus coronatus) and Decken’s Sifaka (Propithecus deckenii) Habitat in the Mahavavy-Kinkony Wetland Complex, Madagascar.

The crowned sifaka (Propithecus coronatus) and Decken’s sifaka (Propithecus deckenii) are Endangered lemurs endemic to west and central Madagascar. Both have suffered habitat loss and fragmentation throughout their ranges. The goal
of this study, conducted in the Mahavavy-Kinkony Wetland Complex (MKWC) in northwestern Madagascar, was to assess the effects of historical change in the species’ habitats, and to model the potential impact of further land-use change on their habitats. The IDRISI Andes Geographical Information System and image-processing software was used for satellite-image classifiation, and the Land Change Modeler was used to compare the natural habitat of the species from 1973 to 2005, and to predict available habitat for 2050. We analyzed two forests in the MKWC occupied by P. coronatus (Antsilaiza and Anjohibe), and three forests occupied by P. deckenii (Tsiombikibo, Marofandroboka and Andohaomby). The two forests occupied by P. coronatus contracted during the period 1949–1973, but then expanded to exceed their 1949 area by 28% in 2005. However, the land change model predicted that they will contract again to match their 1949 area by 2050, and will again lose their corridor connection, meaning that the conservation gains for this species in the complex are at risk of being reversed. The three forests occupied by P. deckenii have declined in area steadily since 1949, losing 20% of their original area by 2005, and are predicted to lose a further 15% of their original area by 2050. Both species are therefore at risk of becoming even more threatened if land-use change continues within the complex. Improved conservation of the remaining forest is recommended to avoid further loss, as well as ecological restoration and reforestation to promote connectivity between the forests. A new strategy for controlling agriculture and forest use is required in order to avoid further destruction of the forest.

Ecological dynamics of extinct species in empty habitat networks. 1. The role of habitat pattern and quantity, stochasticity and dispersal

We examined a remnant host plant (Primula veris L.) habitat network that was last inhabited by the rare butterfly Hamearis lucina L. in north Wales in 1943, to assess the relative contribution of several spatial parameters to its regional extinction. We first examined relationships between P. veris characteristics and H. lucina eggs in surviving H. lucina populations, and used these to predict the suitability and potential carrying capacity of the habitat network in north Wales. This resulted in an estimate of roughly 4500 eggs (ca 227 adults). We developed a discrete space, discrete time metapopulation model to evaluate the relative contribution of dispersal distance, habitat and environmental stochasticity as possible causes of extinction. We simulated the potential persistence of the butterfly in the current network as well as in three artificial (historical and present) habitat networks that differed in the quantity (current and X3) and fragmentation of the habitat (current and aggregated). We identified that reduced habitat quantity and increased isolation would have increased the probability of regional extinction, in conjunction with environmental stochasticity and H. lucina's dispersal distance. This general trend did not change in a qualitative manner when we modified the ability of dispersing females to stay in, and find suitable habitats (by changing the size of the grid cells used in the model). Contrary to most metapopulation model predictions, system persistence declined with increasing migration rate, suggesting that the mortality of migrating individuals in fragmented landscapes may pose significant risks to system-wide persistence. Based on model predictions for the present landscape we argue that a major programme of habitat restoration would be required for a re-established metapopulation to persist for > 100 years.

Ecological dynamics of extinct species in empty habitat networks. 2. The role of host plant dynamics

This paper explores the relative effects of host plant dynamics and butterfly-related parameters on butterfly persistence. It considers an empty habitat network where a rare butterfly (Cupido minimus) became extinct in 1939 in part of its historical range in north Wales, UK. Surviving populations of the butterfly in southern Britain were visited to assess use of its host plant (Anthyllis vulneraria) in order to calibrate habitat suitability and carrying capacity in the empty network in north Wales. These data were used to deduce that only a portion ( similar to 19%) of the host plant network from north Wales was likely to be highly suitable for oviposition. Nonetheless, roughly 65,460 eggs (3273 adult equivalents) could be expected to be laid in north Wales, were the empty network to be populated at the same levels as observed on comparable plants in surviving populations elsewhere. Simulated metapopulations of C. minimus in the empty network revealed that time to extinction and patch occupancy were significantly influenced by carrying capacity, butterfly mean dispersal distance and environmental stochasticity, although for most reasonable parameter values, the model system persisted. Simulation outputs differed greatly when host plant dynamics was incorporated into the modelled butterfly dynamics. Cupido minimus usually went extinct when host plant were at low densities. In these simulations host plant dynamics appeared to be the most important determinant of the butterfly's regional extirpation. Modelling the outcome of a reintroduction programme to C. minimus variation at high quality locations, revealed that 65% of systems survived at least 100 years. Given the current amount of resources of the north Wales landscape, the persistence of C. minimus under a realistic reintroduction programme has a good chance of being successful, if carried out in conjunction with a host plant management programme.