Demersal fish biodiversity: species-level indicators and trends-based targets for the Marine Strategy Framework Directive

The maintenance of biodiversity is a fundamental theme of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive. Appropriate indicators to monitor change in biodiversity, along with associated targets representing "good environmental status" (GES), are required to be in place by July 2012. A method for selecting species-specific metrics to fulfil various specified indicator roles is proposed for demersal fish communities. Available data frequently do not extend far enough back in time to allow GES to be defined empirically. In such situations, trends-based targets offer a pragmatic solution. A method is proposed for setting indicator-level targets for the number of species-specific metrics required to meet their trends-based metric-level targets. This is based on demonstrating significant departures from the binomial distribution. The procedure is trialled using North Sea demersal fish survey data. Although fisheries management in the North Sea has improved in recent decades, management goals to stop further decline in biodiversity, and to initiate recovery, are yet to be met.

A new statistical framework for the quantification of covariate associations with species distributions

Identifying processes that shape species geographical ranges is a prerequisite for understanding environmental change. Currently, species distribution modelling methods do not offer credible statistical tests of the relative influence of climate factors and typically ignore other processes (e.g. biotic interactions and dispersal limitation). We use a hierarchical model fitted with Markov Chain Monte Carlo to combine ecologically plausible niche structures using regression splines to describe unimodal but potentially skewed response terms. We apply spatially explicit error terms that account for (and may help identify) missing variables. Using three example distributions of European bird species, we map model results to show sensitivity to change in each covariate. We show that the overall strength of climatic association differs between species and that each species has considerable spatial variation in both the strength of the climatic association and the sensitivity to climate change. Our methods are widely applicable to many species distribution modelling problems and enable accurate assessment of the statistical importance of biotic and abiotic influences on distributions.

Species boundaries and phylogenetic relationships within the green algal genus Codium (Bryopsidales) based on plastid DNA sequences

Despite the potential model role of the green algal genus Codium for studies of marine speciation and evolution, there have been difficulties with species delimitation and a molecular phylogenetic framework was lacking. In the present study, 74 evolutionarily significant units (ESUs) are delimited using 227 rbcL exon 1 sequences obtained from specimens collected throughout the genus' range. Several morpho-species were shown to be poorly defined, with some clearly in need of lumping and others containing pseudo-cryptic diversity. A phylogenetic hypothesis of 72 Codium ESUs is inferred from rbcL exon 1 and rps3-rp/16 sequence data using a conventional nucleotide substitution model (GTR + Gamma + I), a codon position model and a covariotide (covarion) model, and the fit of a multitude of substitution models and alignment partitioning strategies to the sequence data is reported. Molecular clock tree rooting was carried out because out-group rooting was probably affected by phylogenetic bias. Several aspects of the evolution of morphological features of Codium are discussed and the inferred phylogenetic hypothesis is used as a framework to study the biogeography of the genus, both at a global scale and within the Indian Ocean. (c) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of species loss and nutrients on biodiversity:Anthropogenic impacts on marine biodiversity: effects of enhanced nutrients and species loss on the biodiversity and ecosystem functioning of rocky shores

The focus of this study was to disentangle the effects of multiple stressors on biodiversity, ecosystem functioning and stability. This project examined the effects of anthropogenic increased nutrient loads on the diversity of coastal ecosystems and the effects of loss of species on ecosystem functioning. Specifically, the direct effect of sewage outfalls on benthic communities was assessed using a fully replicated survey that incorporated spatial and temporal variation. In addition, two field experiments examined the effects of loss of species at multiple trophic levels, and tested for potential interactive effects with enhanced nutrient concentration conditions on benthic assemblage structure and ecosystem functioning. This research addressed priority issues outlined in the Biodiversity Knowledge Programme for Ireland (2006) and also aimed to deliver information relevant to European Union (EU) directives (the Water Framework Directive [WFD], the Habitats Directive and the Marine Strategy Framework Directive).

Expertly validated models and phylogenetically-controlled analysis suggests responses to climate change are related to species traits in the Order Lagomorpha

Climate change during the last five decades has impacted significantly on natural ecosystems and the rate of current climate change is of great concern among conservation biologists. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been used widely to project changes in species’ bioclimatic envelopes under future climate scenarios. Here, we aimed to advance this technique by assessing future changes in the bioclimatic envelopes of an entire mammalian order, the Lagomorpha, using a novel framework for model validation based jointly on subjective expert evaluation and objective model evaluation statistics. SDMs were built using climatic, topographical and habitat variables for all 87 lagomorph species under past and current climate scenarios. Expert evaluation and Kappa values were used to validate past and current models and only those deemed ‘modellable’ within our framework were projected under future climate scenarios (58 species). Phylogenetically-controlled regressions were used to test whether species traits correlated with predicted responses to climate change. Climate change is likely to impact more than two-thirds of lagomorph species, with leporids (rabbits, hares and jackrabbits) likely to undertake poleward shifts with little overall change in range extent, whilst pikas are likely to show extreme shifts to higher altitudes associated with marked range declines, including the likely extinction of Kozlov’s Pika (Ochotona koslowi). Smaller-bodied species were more likely to exhibit range contractions and elevational increases, but showing little poleward movement, and fecund species were more likely to shift latitudinally and elevationally. Our results suggest that species traits may be important indicators of future climate change and we believe multi-species approaches, as demonstrated here, are likely to lead to more effective mitigation measures and conservation management. We strongly advocate studies minimising data gaps in our knowledge of the Order, specifically collecting more specimens for biodiversity archives and targeting data deficient geographic regions.

Functional identity and diversity of animals predict ecosystem functioning better than species-based indices

Drastic biodiversity declines have raised concerns about the deterioration of ecosystem functions and have motivated much recent research on the relationship between species diversity and ecosystem functioning. A functional trait framework has been proposed to improve the mechanistic understanding of this relationship, but this has rarely been tested for organisms other than plants. We analysed eight datasets, including five animal groups, to examine how well a trait-based approach, compared with a more traditional taxonomic approach, predicts seven ecosystem functions below- and above-ground. Trait-based indices consistently provided greater explanatory power than species richness or abundance. The frequency distributions of single or multiple traits in the community were the best predictors of ecosystem functioning. This implies that the ecosystem functions we investigated were underpinned by the combination of trait identities (i.e. single-trait indices) and trait complementarity (i.e. multi-trait indices) in the communities. Our study provides new insights into the general mechanisms that link biodiversity to ecosystem functioning in natural animal communities and suggests that the observed responses were due to the identity and dominance patterns of the trait composition rather than the number or abundance of species per se.