Extreme events and the morphodynamics of gravel-dominated coastal barriers: Strengthening uncertain ground

The long-term morphodynamic ordering of gravel-dominated coastal systems (GDCS), many of which serve as coastal defences in northwest Europe, is dominated by extreme events that generate barrier crest overflow. An understanding of this morphodynamic ordering is fraught with several unresolved difficulties. These are related to the twin problems of the inadequacy of pertinent morphodynamic parameterisation and of obtaining data from modern shores enabling such parameterisation. Major uncertainties concern the timing of over-crest flow in terms of return period of extreme elevation; the intensity and structure of the overflow field; antecedent beachface characteristics in response to storms; the rate of relative sea-level change; tidal stage control; and barrier resistance to forcing, itself determined by a number of unknowns including barrier form and size, sediment size and mosaics, and barrier resilience. While generalised extreme value modelling may provide a means of characterising overwashing return-period and its variability, exceptional tsunami events are outside the scope of such modelling. The characterisation of GDCS morphodynamics in terms of the forcing extreme events will necessitate integrating some or all of these parameters into a single model.

Low temperature conditions in building sandstone: the role of extreme events in temperate environments

Data on rock temperatures has previously been collected to characterise typical diurnal regimes, and more recently to describe short-term variability in extreme locations. However, there is also the case that little is understood concerning the impact of extreme events in otherwise temperate environments. Internal stone temperatures (5?cm) collected during the atypical cold extreme experienced, throughout the UK, in December 2010 show a difference between ambient air temperatures and aspect-related thermal differences, particularly concerning temperature lows and the influence of radiative heating. In this case, debris release was not visible; however, laboratory simulations have shown that under such conditions, surface loss does not necessarily negate the occurrence of internal stone modifications. This preparatory sequence of change demonstrates that surface loss is not the result of one process, but rather many operating over time to sufficiently decrease stone strength to facilitate obvious damage.

The Diversity of Type Ia Supernovae: Evidence for Systematics?

The photometric and spectroscopic properties of 26 well-observed Type Ia Supernovae (SNe Ia) were analyzed with the aim of exploring SN Ia diversity. The sample includes (Branch) normal SNe, as well as extreme events such as SN 1991T and SN 1991bg, while the truly peculiar SNe Ia, SN 2000cx and SN 2002cx, are not included in our sample. A statistical treatment reveals the existence of three different groups. The first group (FAINT) consists of faint SNe Ia similar to SN 1991bg, with low expansion velocities and rapid evolution of Si II velocity. A second group consists of normal SNe Ia, also with high temporal velocity gradient (HVG), but with brighter mean absolute magnitude =-19.3 and higher expansion velocities than the FAINT SNe. The third group includes both normal and SN 1991T-like SNe Ia: these SNe populate a narrow strip in the Si II velocity evolution plot, with a low-velocity gradient (LVG), but have absolute magnitudes similar to HVGs. While the FAINT and HVG SNe Ia together seem to define a relation between R(Si II) and ���m15(B), the LVG SNe either do not conform to that relation or define a new, looser one. The R(Si II) premaximum evolution of HVGs is strikingly different from that of LVGs. We discuss the impact of this evidence on the understanding of SN Ia diversity, in terms of explosion mechanisms, degree of ejecta mixing, and ejecta-circumstellar material interaction.

Safeguarding: A case for intelligent risk management

‘Risk’ in social work is typically read as risk-of-bads, and specifically extreme bads. This paper develops the implications of the logical objection to attempts to predict low frequency extreme events (such as child homicides). Our argument is that if we focus on these low probability high cost outcomes—these heart wrenching, but unpredictable, tragedies—we take social work away from the good that it can do, leave it open to inappropriate disapprobation, and, in terms of outcomes, do less well by the vulnerable. This point is reinforced by discussion of developments in other academic fields, and by further examination of the logic (and the morality) of protection under uncertainty. We explore the implications for the way social work should be evaluated. A proper academic understanding of risk, and decision making under uncertainty, has, we argue clear practical implications.

Extreme Loads on an Oscillating Wave Surge Converter

A major difficulty in the design of full scale Wave Energy Converters is the need to design for two conflicting design criteria. In one instance devices must be designed to couple heavily to the incident wave force resulting in the efficient extraction of energy in small sea states, however devices must also be capable of withstanding the harsh conditions encountered during extreme seas. This paper presents an initial investigation of the extreme wave loading of a generic, surface-piercing, pitching flap-type device deployed in near shore wave conditions. Slamming of the flap is selected as the extreme load event for further investigation and the experimental methodologies employed are described. Preliminary results showing both local and global loading under such events are presented for the case of a flap tested in a 3-dimensional environment. Results are presented which show flap slamming effects on the pressures experienced on the front face of the flap.

Presence and possible cause of periodicities in 20th-century extreme coastal surge: Belfast Harbour, Northern Ireland.

Identifying 20th-century periodic coastal surge variation is strategic for the 21st-century coastal surge estimates, as surge periodicities may amplify/reduce future MSL enhanced surge forecasts. Extreme coastal surge data from Belfast Harbour (UK) tide gauges are available for 1901–2010 and provide the potential for decadal-plus periodic coastal surge analysis. Annual extreme surge-elevation distributions (sampled every 10-min) are analysed using PCA and cluster analysis to decompose variation within- and between-years to assess similarity of years in terms of Surge Climate Types, and to establish significance of any transitions in Type occurrence over time using non-parametric Markov analysis. Annual extreme surge variation is shown to be periodically organised across the 20th century. Extreme surge magnitude and distribution show a number of significant cyclonic induced multi-annual (2, 3, 5 & 6 years) cycles, as well as dominant multi-decadal (15–25 years) cycles of variation superimposed on an 80 year fluctuation in atmospheric–oceanic variation across the North Atlantic (relative to NAO/AMO interaction). The top 30 extreme surge events show some relationship with NAO per se, given that 80% are associated with westerly dominant atmospheric flows (+ NAO), but there are 20% of the events associated with blocking air massess (− NAO). Although 20% of the top 30 ranked positive surges occurred within the last twenty years, there is no unequivocal evidence of recent acceleration in extreme surge magnitude related to other than the scale of natural periodic variation.

Extreme ultraviolet emission lines of Ca XV in solar and laboratory spectra

New R-matrix calculations of electron impact excitation rates in Ca XV are used to derive theoretical electron density diagnostic emission line intensity ratios involving 2s(2)2p(2)- 2s2p(3) transitions, specifically R-1 = I(208.70 Angstrom)/I(200.98 Angstrom), R-2 = I(181.91 Angstrom)/I(200.98 Angstrom), and R-3 = I(215.38 Angstrom)/I(200.98 Angstrom), for a range of electron temperatures (T-e = 10(6.4)-10(6.8) K) and densities (Ne = 10(9)-10(13) cm(-3)) appropriate to solar coronal plasmas. Electron densities deduced from the observed values of R-1, R-2, and R-3 for several solar flares, measured from spectra obtained with the Naval Research Laboratory's S082A spectrograph on board Skylab, are found to be consistent. In addition, the derived electron densities are in excellent agreement with those determined from line ratios in Ca XVI, which is formed at a similar electron temperature to Ca XV. These results provide some experimental verification for the accuracy of the line ratio calculations, and hence the atomic data on which they are based. A set of eight theoretical Ca XV line ratios involving 2s(2)2p(2)-2s2p(3) transitions in the wavelength range similar to140-216 Angstrom are also found to be in good agreement with those measured from spectra of the TEXT tokamak plasma, for which the electron temperature and density have been independently determined. This provides additional support for the accuracy of the theoretical line ratios and atomic data.

Perceptions of stressful life events in Northern Irish school children: a longitudinal study.

Adults’ perceptions of stressful life events have been acknowledged as important moderators of the stress adjustment relationship. Until recently, however, there has been a lack of research on children's perceptions of negative life events. This study assesses children's own perceptions of the stressfulness of negative familial, academic and social events as well as events related to the political conflict in Northern Ireland. Method: Developmental changes in children's perceptions of events are traced over time. One hundred and sixty 8-year-old children completed a self-report measure of the perceived stressfulness of a range of negative life events. The sample was drawn from schools in the Greater Belfast area to include children of both genders, primary religious affiliations in Northern Ireland (i.e., Protestant and Roman Catholic) and of varying socio-economic status. Three years later, 113 of these children, then aged 11, were traced through the school system and completed the same measure. Results: Children's perceptions of stressful events are related to a host of social factors. Girls viewed many negative events as more stressful than their male counterparts. Roman Catholic and Protestant children differed in their perceptions of conflict-related events. Perceptions of various types of negative experiences were differentially related to socio-economic status and age. Conclusion: Personal, social and situational factors differentially determine children's perceptions of negative life experiences.