Improving multi-site benefit functions via Bayesian model averaging: A new approach to benefit transfer

A benefit function transfer obtains estimates of willingness-to-pay (WTP) for the evaluation of a given policy at a site by combining existing information from different study sites. This has the advantage that more efficient estimates are obtained, but it relies on the assumption that the heterogeneity between sites is appropriately captured in the benefit transfer model. A more expensive alternative to estimate WTP is to analyze only data from the policy site in question while ignoring information from other sites. We make use of the fact that these two choices can be viewed as a model selection problem and extend the set of models to allow for the hypothesis that the benefit function is only applicable to a subset of sites. We show how Bayesian model averaging (BMA) techniques can be used to optimally combine information from all models. The Bayesian algorithm searches for the set of sites that can form the basis for estimating a benefit function and reveals whether such information can be transferred to new sites for which only a small data set is available. We illustrate the method with a sample of 42 forests from U.K. and Ireland. We find that BMA benefit function transfer produces reliable estimates and can increase about 8 times the information content of a small sample when the forest is 'poolable'. © 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On the Assumption of Bivariate Normality in Selection Models: A Copula Approach Applied to Estimating HIV Prevalence

Background: Heckman-type selection models have been used to control HIV prevalence estimates for selection bias when participation in HIV testing and HIV status are associated after controlling for observed variables. These models typically rely on the strong assumption that the error terms in the participation and the outcome equations that comprise the model are distributed as bivariate normal.
Methods: We introduce a novel approach for relaxing the bivariate normality assumption in selection models using copula functions. We apply this method to estimating HIV prevalence and new confidence intervals (CI) in the 2007 Zambia Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) by using interviewer identity as the selection variable that predicts participation (consent to test) but not the outcome (HIV status).
Results: We show in a simulation study that selection models can generate biased results when the bivariate normality assumption is violated. In the 2007 Zambia DHS, HIV prevalence estimates are similar irrespective of the structure of the association assumed between participation and outcome. For men, we estimate a population HIV prevalence of 21% (95% CI = 16%–25%) compared with 12% (11%–13%) among those who consented to be tested; for women, the corresponding figures are 19% (13%–24%) and 16% (15%–17%).
Conclusions: Copula approaches to Heckman-type selection models are a useful addition to the methodological toolkit of HIV epidemiology and of epidemiology in general. We develop the use of this approach to systematically evaluate the robustness of HIV prevalence estimates based on selection models, both empirically and in a simulation study.

Cognitive inhibition and interference in dissociative indentity disorder: the effects of anxiety on specific executive functions:The effects of anxiety on specific executive functions

Using an experimentally based, computer-presented task, this study assessed cognitive inhibition and interference in individuals from the dissociative identity disorder (DID; n=12), generalized anxiety disorder (GAD; n=12) and non-clinical (n=12) populations. Participants were assessed in a neutral and emotionally negative (anxiety provoking) context, manipulated by experimental instructions and word stimuli. The DID sample displayed effective cognitive inhibition in the neutral but not the anxious context. The GAD sample displayed the opposite findings. However, the interaction between group and context failed to reach significance. There was no indication of an attentional bias to non-schema specific negative words in any sample. Results are discussed in terms of the potential benefit of weakened cognitive inhibition during anxious arousal in dissociative individuals.

BRCA1 Functions as a Differential Modulator of Chemotherapy-induced Apoptosis

We have evaluated the role played by BRCA1 in mediating the phenotypic response to a range of chemotherapeutic agents commonly used in cancer treatment. Here we provide evidence that BRCA1 functions as a differential mediator of chemotherapy-induced apoptosis. Specifically, we demonstrate that BRCA1 mediates sensitivity to apoptosis induced by antimicrotubule agents but conversely induces resistance to DNA-damaging agents. These data are supported by a variety of experimental models including cells with inducible expression of BRCA1, siRNA-mediated inactivation of endogenous BRCA1, and reconstitution of BRCA1-deficient cells with wild-type BRCA1. Most notably we demonstrate that BRCA1 induces a 10–1000-fold increase in resistance to a range of DNA-damaging agents, in particular those that give rise to double-strand breaks such as etoposide or bleomycin. In contrast, BRCA1 induces a >1000-fold increase in sensitivity to the spindle poisons, paclitaxel and vinorelbine. Fluorescence-activated cell sorter analysis demonstrated that BRCA1 mediates G2/M arrest in response to both antimicrotubule and DNA-damaging agents. However, poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase and caspase-3 cleavage assays indicate that the differential effect mediated by BRCA1 in response to these agents occurs through the inhibition or induction of apoptosis. Therefore, our data suggest that BRCA1 acts as a differential modulator of apoptosis depending on the nature of the cellular insult.