Assessing the distribution of social-ecological resilience and risk: Ireland as a case study of the uneven impact of famine

Explanations for the causes of famine and food insecurity often reside at a high level of aggregation or abstraction. Popular models within famine studies have often emphasised the role of prime movers such as population stress, or the political-economic structure of access channels, as key determinants of food security. Explanation typically resides at the macro level, obscuring the presence of substantial within-country differences in the manner in which such stressors operate. This study offers an alternative approach to analyse the uneven nature of food security, drawing on the Great Irish famine of 1845–1852. Ireland is often viewed as a classical case of Malthusian stress, whereby population outstripped food supply under a pre-famine demographic regime of expanded fertility. Many have also pointed to Ireland's integration with capitalist markets through its colonial relationship with the British state, and country-wide system of landlordism, as key determinants of local agricultural activity. Such models are misguided, ignoring both substantial complexities in regional demography, and the continuity of non-capitalistic, communal modes of land management long into the nineteenth century. Drawing on resilience ecology and complexity theory, this paper subjects a set of aggregate data on pre-famine Ireland to an optimisation clustering procedure, in order to discern the potential presence of distinctive social–ecological regimes. Based on measures of demography, social structure, geography, and land tenure, this typology reveals substantial internal variation in regional social–ecological structure, and vastly differing levels of distress during the peak famine months. This exercise calls into question the validity of accounts which emphasise uniformity of structure, by revealing a variety of regional regimes, which profoundly mediated local conditions of food security. Future research should therefore consider the potential presence of internal variations in resilience and risk exposure, rather than seeking to characterise cases based on singular macro-dynamics and stressors alone.

Factors influencing the distribution of native and introduced Gammarus spp. in Irish river systems

Populations of Gammarus duebeni celticus, previously the only amphipod species resident in the rivers of the Lough Neagh catchment, N. Ireland, have been subjected to invasion by G. pulex from the British mainland. Numerous previous studies have investigated the potential behavioural mechanisms, principally differential mutual predation, underlying the replacement of G. d. celticus by G. pulex in Irish waters, and the mutually exclusive distributions of these species in Britain and mainland Europe. However, the relative degree of influence of abiotic versus biotic factors in structuring these amphipod communities remains unresolved. This study used principal component analysis (PCA) to distinguish physico-chemical parameters that have significant roles in determining the current distribution of G. pulex relative to G. d. celticus in L. Neagh rivers. We show that the original domination of rivers by the native G. d, celticus has changed radically, with many sites in several rivers containing either both species or only G. pulex. G. pulex was more abundant than the G. d. celticus in sites with low dissolved oxygen levels. This was reflected in the macroinvertebrate assemblages associated with G. pulex in these sites, which tended to be those tolerant of low biological water quality. The present study thus emphasizes the importance of the habitat template, particularly water quality, for Gammarus spp. interactions. If rivers become increasingly stressed by organic pollution, it is probable the range expansion of G. pulex will continue. Because these two species are not ecological equivalents, the outcomes of G. pulex incursions into G. d. celticus sites may ultimately depend on the prevailing physico-chemical regimes in each site.

Distribution of the common lizard (Zootoca vivipara) and landscape favourability for the species in Northern Ireland

The common lizard (Zootoca vivipara) is Ireland’s only native reptile, forming a key part of the island’s biodiversity. However, there is a general paucity of distributional and abundance data for the species. In this study, we collated incidental records for common lizard sightings to define the distribution of the species in Northern Ireland. Maximum entropy modelling was employed to describe species-habitat associations. The resulting predicted landscape favourability was used to evaluate the current status of the species based on the distribution of its maximum potential range in relation to the degree of fragmentation of remaining suitable habitat. In common with previous studies in the Republic of Ireland, sightings were highly clustered indicating under-recording, observer bias, and fragmentation of suitable habitat. A total of 98 records were collated from 1905 to 2009. The species was recorded in 63 (ca. 34%) of 186 × 10 km Northern Irish grid squares. Lizard occurrence was strongly and positively associated with landscapes dominated by heathland, bog and coastal habitats. The single best approximating model correctly classified the presence of lizards in 84.2% of cases. Upland heath, lowland raised bog and sand dune systems are all subject to Habitat Action Plans in Northern Ireland and are threatened by conversion to agriculture, afforestation, invasive species encroachment and infrastructural development. Consequently, remaining common lizard populations are likely to be small, isolated and highly fragmented. Establishment of an ecological network to preserve connectivity of remaining heath and bog will not only benefit remaining common lizard populations but biodiversity in general.

Rapid sympatric ecological differentiation of crater lake cichlid fishes within historic times

Background: After a volcano erupts, a lake may form in the cooled crater and become an isolated aquatic ecosystem. This makes fishes in crater lakes informative for understanding sympatric evolution and ecological diversification in barren environments. From a geological and limnological perspective, such research offers insight about the process of crater lake ecosystem establishment and speciation. In the present study we use genetic and coalescence approaches to infer the colonization history of Midas cichlid fishes (Amphilophus cf. citrinellus) that inhabit a very young crater lake in Nicaragua-the ca. 1800 year-old Lake Apoyeque. This lake holds two sympatric, endemic morphs of Midas cichlid: one with large, hypertrophied lips (~20% of the total population) and another with thin lips. Here we test the associated ecological, morphological and genetic diversification of these two morphs and their potential to represent incipient speciation.
Results: Gene coalescence analyses [11 microsatellite loci and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences] suggest that crater lake Apoyeque was colonized in a single event from the large neighbouring great lake Managua only about 100 years ago. This founding in historic times is also reflected in the extremely low nuclear and mitochondrial genetic diversity in Apoyeque. We found that sympatric adult thin- and thick-lipped fishes occupy distinct ecological trophic niches. Diet, body shape, head width, pharyngeal jaw size and shape and stable isotope values all differ significantly between the two lip-morphs. The eco-morphological features pharyngeal jaw shape, body shape, stomach contents and stable isotopes (d15N) all show a bimodal distribution of traits, which is compatible with the expectations of an initial stage of ecological speciation under disruptive selection. Genetic differentiation between the thin- and thick-lipped population is weak at mtDNA sequence (FST = 0.018) and absent at nuclear microsatellite loci (FST < 0.001).
Conclusions: This study provides empirical evidence of eco-morphological differentiation occurring very quickly after the colonization of a new and vacant habitat. Exceptionally low levels of neutral genetic diversity and inference from coalescence indicates that the Midas cichlid population in Apoyeque is much younger (ca. 100 years or generations old) than the crater itself (ca. 1 800 years old). This suggests either that the crater remained empty for many hundreds of years after its formation or that remnant volcanic activity prevented the establishment of a stable fish population during the early life of the crater lake. Based on our findings of eco-morphological variation in the Apoyeque Midas cichlids, and known patterns of adaptation in Midas cichlids in general, we suggest that this population may be in a very early stage of speciation (incipient species), promoted by disruptive selection and ecological diversification.

An Ecological Correlation Study of Late Age-Related Macular Degeneration and the Complement Factor H Y402H Polymorphism

PURPOSE:
To investigate whether variation in the distribution of the risk allele frequency of the Y402H single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) across various ethnicities and geographic regions reflects differences in the prevalence of late age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in those ethnicities.

METHODS:
Published data were obtained via a systematic search. Study samples were grouped into clusters by ethnicity and geographic location and the Spearman correlation coefficient of the prevalence of late AMD and risk allele frequencies was calculated across clusters.

RESULTS:
Across all ethnicities, AMD prevalence was seen to increase with age. Populations of European descent had both higher risk allele frequencies and prevalence of late AMD than did Japanese, Chinese, and Hispanic descendants. Results for African descendants were anomalous: although allele frequency was similar to that in European populations, the age-specific prevalence of late AMD was considerably lower. The correlation coefficient for the association between allele frequency and AMD prevalence was 0.40 (95% confidence interval [CI] = -0.36 to 0.84, P = 0.28) in all populations combined and 0.71 (95% CI = 0.02-0.94, P = 0.04) when people of African descent were excluded.

CONCLUSIONS:
Evidence was found at the population level to support a positive association between the Y204H risk allele and the prevalence of AMD after exclusion of studies undertaken on persons of African ancestry. Data in African, Middle Eastern, and South American populations are needed to provide a better understanding of the association of late AMD genetic risk across ethnicities.

Applying species distribution modelling to identify areas of high conservation value for endangered species: A case study using Margaritifera margaritifera (L.)

The development and implementation of a population supplementation and restoration plan for any endangered species should involve an understanding of the species’ habitat requirements prior to the release of any captive bred individuals. The freshwater pearl mussel, Margaritifera margaritifera, has undergone dramatic declines over the last century and is now globally endangered. In Northern Ireland, the release of captive bred individuals is being used to support wild populations and repatriate the species in areas where it once existed. We employed a combination of maximum entropy modelling (MAXENT) and Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMM) to identify ecological parameters necessary to support wild populations using GIS-based landscape scale and ground-truthed habitat scale environmental parameters. The GIS-based landscape scale model suggested that mussel occurrence was associated with altitude and soil characteristics including the carbon, clay, sand, and silt content. Notably, mussels were associated with a relatively narrow band of variance indicating that M. margaritifera has a highly specific landscape niche. The ground-truthed habitat scale model suggested that mussel occurrence was associated with stable consolidated substrates, the extent of bankside trees, presence of indicative macrophyte species and fast flowing water. We propose a three phase conservation strategy for M. margaritifera identifying suitable areas within rivers that (i) have a high conservation value yet needing habitat restoration at a local level, (ii) sites for population supplementation of existing populations and (iii) sites for species reintroduction to rivers where the mussel historically occurred but is now locally extinct. A combined analytical approach including GIS-based landscape scale and ground-truthed habitat scale models provides a robust method by which suitable release sites can be identified for the population supplementation and restoration of an endangered species. Our results will be highly influential in the future management of M. margaritifera in Northern Ireland.

Incorporating uncertainty in predictive species distribution modelling

Motivated by the need to solve ecological problems (climate change, habitat fragmentation and biological invasions), there has been increasing interest in species distribution models (SDMs). Predictions from these models inform conservation policy, invasive species management and disease-control measures. However, predictions are subject to uncertainty, the degree and source of which is often unrecognized. Here, we review the SDM literature in the context of uncertainty, focusing on three main classes of SDM: niche-based models, demographic models and process-based models. We identify sources of uncertainty for each class and discuss how uncertainty can be minimized or included in the modelling process to give realistic measures of confidence around predictions. Because this has typically not been performed, we conclude that uncertainty in SDMs has often been underestimated and a false precision assigned to predictions of geographical distribution. We identify areas where development of new statistical tools will improve predictions from distribution models, notably the development of hierarchical models that link different types of distribution model and their attendant uncertainties across spatial scales. Finally, we discuss the need to develop more defensible methods for assessing predictive performance, quantifying model goodness-of-fit and for assessing the significance of model covariates.

Frequency and distribution of group I intron genotypes of Candida albicans colonising critically ill patients

A study is performed to examine the distribution and frequency of 25S rRNA intron genotypes of Candida albicans isolated from different anatomical sites of patients in an intensive care unit (ICU) setting. Germ-tube positive Candida isolates (n=65) from 65 patients are included and isolates are characterised by 25S intron genotyping, whereby all can be subdivided into four genotypes (A-D). Results demonstrated that there were no significant differences between the frequency and genotype distribution of the Candida isolates and the anatomical site of colonisation. Furthermore, analysis of the transposable intron region in the 25S rRNA gene demonstrated equal distribution, regardless of age and anatomical site of isolation (groin, throat, etc.). Therefore, there does not appear to be any selective pressure associated with any anatomical site, resulting in an ecological shift in the frequency of genotypes present. This suggests that C. albicans intron genotypes equally colonise those sites of the body examined in this study. Although such an ecological finding as this is interesting, it perpetuates the continued need to find a genotypic typing scheme that helps to identify the source (nosocomial or endogenous) and mode of entry of C. albicans into patients in the ICU setting, resulting in C. albicans bloodstream infection.

Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of threatened forest-restricted birds in Madagascar

The greatest common threat to birds in Madagascar has historically been from anthropogenic deforestation. During recent decades, global climate change is now also regarded as a significant threat to biodiversity. This study uses Maximum Entropy species distribution modeling to explore how potential climate change could affect the distribution of 17 threatened forest endemic bird species, using a range of climate variables from the Hadley Center's HadCM3 climate change model, for IPCC scenario B2a, for 2050. We explore the importance of forest cover as a modeling variable and we test the use of pseudo-presences drawn from extent of occurrence distributions. Inclusion of the forest cover variable improves the models and models derived from real-presence data with forest layer are better predictors than those from pseudo-presence data. Using real-presence data, we analyzed the impacts of climate change on the distribution of nine species. We could not predict the impact of climate change on eight species because of low numbers of occurrences. All nine species were predicted to experience reductions in their total range areas, and their maximum modeled probabilities of occurrence. In general, species range and altitudinal contractions follow the reductive trend of the Maximum presence probability. Only two species (Tyto soumagnei and Newtonia fanovanae) are expected to expand their altitude range. These results indicate that future availability of suitable habitat at different elevations is likely to be critical for species persistence through climate change. Five species (Eutriorchis astur, Neodrepanis hypoxantha, Mesitornis unicolor, Euryceros prevostii, and Oriola bernieri) are probably the most vulnerable to climate change. Four of them (E. astur, M. unicolor, E. prevostii, and O. bernieri) were found vulnerable to the forest fragmentation during previous research. Combination of these two threats in the future could negatively affect these species in a drastic way. Climate change is expected to act differently on each species and it is important to incorporate complex ecological variables into species distribution models.

Behavioural context of multi-scale species distribution models assessed by radio-tracking

Incorporating ecological processes and animal behaviour into Species Distribution Models (SDMs) is difficult. In species with a central resting or breeding place, there can be conflict between the environmental requirements of the 'central place' and foraging habitat. We apply a multi-scale SDM to examine habitat trade-offs between the central place, roost sites, and foraging habitat in . Myotis nattereri. We validate these derived associations using habitat selection from behavioural observations of radio-tracked bats. A Generalised Linear Model (GLM) of roost occurrence using land cover variables with mixed spatial scales indicated roost occurrence was positively associated with woodland on a fine scale and pasture on a broad scale. Habitat selection of radio-tracked bats mirrored the SDM with bats selecting for woodland in the immediate vicinity of individual roosts but avoiding this habitat in foraging areas, whilst pasture was significantly positively selected for in foraging areas. Using habitat selection derived from radio-tracking enables a multi-scale SDM to be interpreted in a behavioural context. We suggest that the multi-scale SDM of . M. nattereri describes a trade-off between the central place and foraging habitat. Multi-scale methods provide a greater understanding of the ecological processes which determine where species occur and allow integration of behavioural processes into SDMs. The findings have implications when assessing the resource use of a species at a single point in time. Doing so could lead to misinterpretation of habitat requirements as these can change within a short time period depending on specific behaviour, particularly if detectability changes depending on behaviour. © 2011 Gesellschaft für ökologie.

Invading and expanding: range dynamics and ecological consequences of the greater white-toothed shrew (Crocidura russula) invasion in Ireland

Establishing how invasive species impact upon pre-existing species is a fundamental question in ecology and conservation biology. The greater white-toothed shrew (Crocidura russula) is an invasive species in Ireland that was first recorded in 2007 and which, according to initial data, may be limiting the abundance/distribution of the pygmy shrew (Sorex minutus), previously Ireland’s only shrew species. Because of these concerns, we undertook an intensive live-trapping survey (and used other data from live-trapping, sightings and bird of prey pellets/nest inspections collected between 2006 and 2013) to model the distribution and expansion of C. russula in Ireland and its impacts on Ireland’s small mammal community. The main distribution range of C. russula was found to be approximately 7,600 km2 in 2013, with established outlier populations suggesting that the species is dispersing with human assistance within the island. The species is expanding rapidly for a small mammal, with a radial expansion rate of 5.5 km/yr overall (2008–2013), and independent estimates from live-trapping in 2012–2013 showing rates of 2.4–14.1 km/yr, 0.5–7.1 km/yr and 0–5.6 km/yr depending on the landscape features present. S. minutus is negatively associated with C. russula. S. minutus is completely absent at sites where C. russula is established and is only present at sites at the edge of and beyond the invasion range of C. russula. The speed of this invasion and the homogenous nature of the Irish landscape may mean that S. minutus has not had sufficient time to adapt to the sudden appearance of C. russula. This may mean the continued decline/disappearance of S. minutus as C. russula spreads throughout the island.

Comparison of granulometric methods and sampling strategies used in marine habitat classification and Ecological Status assessment

Sediment particle size analysis (PSA) is routinely used to support benthic macrofaunal community distribution data in habitat mapping and Ecological Status (ES) assessment. No optimal PSA Method to explain variability in multivariate macrofaunal distribution has been identified nor have the effects of changing sampling strategy been examined. Here, we use benthic macrofaunal and PSA grabs from two embayments in the south of Ireland. Four frequently used PSA Methods and two common sampling strategies are applied. A combination of laser particle sizing and wet/dry sieving without peroxide pre-treatment to remove organics was identified as the optimal Method for explaining macrofaunal distributions. ES classifications and EUNIS sediment classification were robust to changes in PSA Method. Fauna and PSA samples returned from the same grab sample significantly decreased macrofaunal variance explained by PSA and caused ES to be classified as lower. Employing the optimal PSA Method and sampling strategy will improve benthic monitoring. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

Social Ecological Constraints to Park Use in Communities with Quality Access

Evidence correlates physical activity, psychological restoration, and social health to proximity to parks and sites of recreation. The purpose of this study was to identify perceived constraints to park use in low-income communities facing significant health disparities, with access to underutilized parks. We used a series of focus groups with families, teens, and older adults in neighborhoods with similar demographic distribution and access to parks over 125 acres in size. Constraints to park use varied across age groups as well as across social ecological levels, with perceived constraints to individuals, user groups, communities, and society. Policies and interventions aimed at increasing park use must specifically address barriers across social ecological levels to be successful.

Distribution, occurrence and biotoxin composition of the main shellfish toxin producing microalgae within European waters: A comparison of methods of analysis

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) are a natural global phenomena emerging in severity and extent. Incidents have many economic, ecological and human health impacts. Monitoring and providing early warning of toxic HABs are critical for protecting public health. Current monitoring programmes include measuring the number of toxic phytoplankton cells in the water and biotoxin levels in shellfish tissue. As these efforts are demanding and labour intensive, methods which improve the efficiency are essential. This study compares the utilisation of a multitoxin surface plasmon resonance (multitoxin SPR) biosensor with enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and analytical methods such as high performance liquid chromatography with fluorescence detection (HPLC-FLD) and liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) for toxic HAB monitoring efforts in Europe. Seawater samples (n = 256) from European waters, collected 2009-2011, were analysed for biotoxins: saxitoxin and analogues, okadaic acid and dinophysistoxins 1/2 (DTX1/DTX2) and domoic acid responsible for paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP), diarrheic shellfish poisoning (DSP) and amnesic shellfish poisoning (ASP), respectively. Biotoxins were detected mainly in samples from Spain and Ireland. France and Norway appeared to have the lowest number of toxic samples. Both the multitoxin SPR biosensor and the RNA microarray were more sensitive at detecting toxic HABs than standard light microscopy phytoplankton monitoring. Correlations between each of the detection methods were performed with the overall agreement, based on statistical 2 × 2 comparison tables, between each testing platform ranging between 32% and 74% for all three toxin families illustrating that one individual testing method may not be an ideal solution. An efficient early warning monitoring system for the detection of toxic HABs could therefore be achieved by combining both the multitoxin SPR biosensor and RNA microarray.