An analysis of implied volatility jump dynamics: Novel functional data representation in crude oil markets

The predominant fear in capital markets is that of a price spike. Commodity markets differ in that there is a fear of both upward and down jumps, this results in implied volatility curves displaying distinct shapes when compared to equity markets. The use of a novel functional data analysis (FDA) approach, provides a framework to produce and interpret functional objects that characterise the underlying dynamics of oil future options. We use the FDA framework to examine implied volatility, jump risk, and pricing dynamics within crude oil markets. Examining a WTI crude oil sample for the 2007–2013 period, which includes the global financial crisis and the Arab Spring, strong evidence is found of converse jump dynamics during periods of demand and supply side weakness. This is used as a basis for an FDA-derived Merton (1976) jump diffusion optimised delta hedging strategy, which exhibits superior portfolio management results over traditional methods.

Less of a Puzzle: a new look at the forward forex market

The two-country monetary model is extended to include a consumption externality with habit persistence. The model is simulated using the artificial economy methodology. The 'puzzles' in the forward market are re-examined. The model is able to account for: (a) the low volatility of the forward discount; (b) the higher volatility of expected forward speculative profit; (c) the even higher volatility of the spot return; (d) the persistence in the forward discount; (e) the martingale behavior of spot exchange rates; and (f) the negative covariance between the expected spot return and expected forward speculative profit. It is unable to account for the forward market bias because the volatility of the expected spot return is too large relative to the volatility of the expected forward speculative profit.

Fixed versus Flexible: lessons from EMS order Flow

We extend the literature on regime-dependent volatility in two ways. First, our microstructural model provides a qualitatively new explanation. Second, we test implications of our model using Europe's recent shift to rigidly fixed rates (EMS to EMU). In the model, shocks to order flow induce more volatility under flexible rates because the elasticity of speculative demand is (endogenously) low, leading to pronounced portfolio-balance effects. New data on FF/DM transactions show that order flow had persistent effects on the exchange rate before EMU parities were announced. After announcement, the FF/DM rate was decoupled from order flow, as the model predicts.

Power-law behaviour, heterogeneity, and trend chasing

Long-range dependence in volatility is one of the most prominent examples in financial market research involving universal power laws. Its characterization has recently spurred attempts to provide some explanations of the underlying mechanism. This paper contributes to this recent line of research by analyzing a simple market fraction asset pricing model with two types of traders---fundamentalists who trade on the price deviation from estimated fundamental value and trend followers whose conditional mean and variance of the trend are updated through a geometric learning process. Our analysis shows that agent heterogeneity, risk-adjusted trend chasing through the geometric learning process, and the interplay of noisy fundamental and demand processes and the underlying deterministic dynamics can be the source of power-law distributed fluctuations. In particular, the noisy demand plays an important role in the generation of insignificant autocorrelations (ACs) on returns, while the significant decaying AC patterns of the absolute returns and squared returns are more influenced by the noisy fundamental process. A statistical analysis based on Monte Carlo simulations is conducted to characterize the decay rate. Realistic estimates of the power-law decay indices and the (FI)GARCH parameters are presented.

Job Search Methods and Outcomes

Using Portuguese data, this paper investigates the effects of job search methods on escape rates from unemployment and of job-finding methods on earnings. The effectiveness of the job search process is also evaluated in terms of the periodicity of the resulting job match. Emphasis is accorded the role of the public employment service. Despite its frequency as a search vehicle, the state employment agency is shown to have a low hit rate, and to lead to lower-paying, shorter-lasting jobs.

Innovation persistence: Survey and case-study evidence

Evidence on the persistence of innovation sheds light on the nature of the innovation process and can guide appropriate policy development. This paper examines innovation persistence in Ireland and Northern Ireland using complementary quantitative and case-study approaches. Panel data derived from innovation surveys is used, and suggests very different results to previous analyses of innovation persistence primarily based on patents data. Product and process innovation are found to exhibit strong general persistence but we find no evidence that persistence is stronger among highly active innovators. Our quantitative evidence is most strongly consistent with a process of cumulative accumulation at plant level. Our case-studies highlight a number of factors which can either interrupt or stimulate this process including market volatility, plants’ organisational context and regulatory changes. Notably, however, the balance of influences on product and process innovation persistence differs, with product innovation persistence linked more strongly to strategic factors and process changes more often driven by market pressures.
© 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Choice and use of standards for dynamic headspace trapping and application to the analysis of the volatiles of baked potato

When attempting to quantify the volatile components of a food isolated by dynamic headspace trapping onto an adsorbent, the analyst has to select the most appropriate compounds to use as standards and at which stage of the analysis to add them. Factors to be borne in mind include the volatility of the standard, the response of the GC detector, and whether to add the standard to the sample or to the adsorbent trap. This chapter considers the issues and describes the application of one chosen method to the quantitation of the volatile components of baked potato.