Myopic Rationality in a Mania

The rationality of investors during asset price bubbles has been the subject of considerable debate. An analysis of the British Railway Mania, which occurred in the 1840s, suggests that investors may have been myopic, as their expectations were only accurate in the short-term, but they remained rational, as they acted in a utility maximising manner given their expectations. Investors successfully incorporated forecasts of short-term dividend changes into their valuations, but were unable to predict longer-term changes. When short-term growth is controlled for, it appears that the railways were priced consistently with the non-railways throughout the entire episode.

Dispelling the Myth of the Naive Investor during the British Railway Mania, 1845–46

Anecdotal evidence from the British Railway Mania and other historical financial bubbles suggests that many investors during such episodes are naive, thus contributing to the asset price boom. Using extensive investor records, we find that very few investors during the Railway Mania can be categorized as such. Although some interpretations of the Mania suggest that naive investors were expropriated by railway insiders, our evidence is inconsistent with this view as railway insiders contributed substantial amounts of capital, and their investments performed no better than those made by other experienced investors.

Deriving the Railway Mania

This article argues that the promotion boom which occurred in the railway industry during the mid 1840s was amplified by the issue of derivative-like assets, which let investors take highly leveraged positions in the shares of new railway companies. The partially paid shares which the new railway companies issued allowed investors to obtain exposure to an asset by paying only a small initial deposit. The consequence of this arrangement was that investor returns were substantially amplified, and many schemes could be financed simultaneously. However, when investors were required to make further payments it put a negative downward pressure on prices.

The Evolution of Extreme Cooperation via Shared Dysphoric Experiences

Willingness to lay down one’s life for a group of non-kin, well documented in the
historical and ethnographic records, represents an evolutionary puzzle. Here we
present a novel explanation for the willingness to fight and die for a group, combining evolutionary theorizing with empirical evidence from real-world human groups. Building on research in social psychology, we develop a mathematical model showing how conditioning cooperation on previous shared experience can allow extreme (i.e., life-threatening) pro-social behavior to evolve. The model generates a series of predictions that we then test empirically in a range of special sample populations (including military veterans, college fraternity/sorority members, football fans, martial arts practitioners, and twins). Our results show that sharing painful experiences produces “identity fusion” – a visceral sense of oneness – more so even than bonds of kinship, in turn motivating extreme pro-group behavior, including willingness to fight and die for the group. These findings have theoretical and practical relevance. Theoretically, our results speak to the origins of human cooperation, as we offer an explanation of extremely costly actions left unexplained by existing models.
Practically, our account of how shared dysphoric experiences produce identity fusion, which produces a willingness to fight and die for a non-kin group, helps us better understand such pressing social issues as suicide terrorism, holy wars, sectarian violence, gang-related violence, and other forms of intergroup conflict.

Normal levels of prepulse inhibition in the euthymic phase of bipolar disorder.

BACKGROUND:Deficits in prepulse inhibition (PPI) of the acoustic startle response have been suggested as a potentially useful endophenotype for schizophrenia spectrum disorders and may explain certain symptoms and cognitive deficits observed in the psychoses. PPI deficits have also been found in mania, but it remains to be confirmed whether this dysfunction is present in the euthymic phase of bipolar disorder.METHOD: Twenty-three adult patients with DSM-IV bipolar disorder were compared to 20 controls on tests of acoustic startle reactivity and PPI of the startle response. Sociodemographic and treatment variables were recorded and symptom scores assessed using the Hamilton Depression Inventory and the Young Mania Rating Scale.RESULTS:Overall, the patient and control groups demonstrated similar levels of startle reactivity and PPI, although there was a trend for the inter-stimulus interval to differentially affect levels of PPI in the two groups.CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to bipolar patients experiencing a manic episode, general levels of PPI were normal in this euthymic sample. Further studies are required to confirm this finding and to determine the mechanisms by which this potential disruption/normalization occurs. It is suggested that an examination of PPI in a high-risk group is required to fully discount dysfunctional PPI as a potentially useful endophenotype for bipolar disorder.

Mrs. Lincoln Goes Shopping

Analysis of the Old Clothes Scandal of 1867, and Mrs. Lincoln's "shopping mania."

Polymorphisms in SLC6A4, PAH, GABRB3, and MAOB and modification of psychotic disorder features

We tested four genes [phenylalanine hydroxylase (PAH), the serotonin transporter (SLC6A4), monoamine oxidase B (MAOB), and the gamma-aminobutyric acid A receptor beta-3 subunit (GABRB3)] for their impact on five schizophrenia symptom factors: delusions, hallucinations, mania, depression, and negative symptoms. In a 90 family subset of the Irish Study of High Density Schizophrenia Families, the PAH 232 bp microsatellite allele demonstrated significant association with the delusions factor using both QTDT (F = 8.0, p = .031) and QPDTPHASE (chi-square = 12.54, p = .028). Also, a significant association between the GABRB3 191 bp allele and the hallucinations factor was detected using QPDTPHASE (chi-square 15.51, p = .030), but not QTDT (chi-square = 2.07, p = .560). (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Limiting withdrawal rate and maximum film thickness during dip-coating of titania sols onto a Si substrate

The article highlights new insights into production of thin titania films widely used as catalyst support in many modern reactors including capillary microreactors, microstructured fixed-bed reactors and falling film microreactors. Dip-coating of a Mania sol onto a Si substrate has been studied in the range of the sol viscosities of 1.5-2.5 mPa s and the sol withdrawal rates of 0.2-18 mm/s. Different viscosities of sols were created by addition of desired amounts of nitric acid to the synthesis mixture of titanium isopropoxide and Plutonic F127 in ethanol which allowed to control the rate of the condensation reactions. Uniform inesoporous titania coatings were obtained at the solvent withdrawal rates below 10 mm/s at sol viscosities in the range from 1.6 mPa s to 2.5 mPa s. There exists a limiting withdrawal rate corresponding to a capillary number of ca. 0.01 beyond which uniform titania films cannot be obtained. Below the limiting withdrawal rate, the coating thickness is a power function of the sol viscosity and withdrawal rate, both with an exponent of 2/3. The limiting withdrawal rate increases as the solvent evaporation rate increases and it decreases as the sol viscosity increases. Crown Copyright (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The role of the media in a bubble

We examine the role of the news media during the British Railway Mania, arguably one of the largest financial bubbles in history. Our analysis suggests that the press responded to changes in the stock market, and its reporting of recent events may have influenced asset prices. However, we find no evidence that the sentiment of the media, or the attention which it gave to particular stocks, had any influence on exacerbating or ending the Mania. The main contribution of the media was to provide factual information which investors could use to inform their decisions. © 2012 Elsevier Inc.

Catechol-O-methyltransferase and the clinical features of psychosis

A functional polymorphism (Val-158-Met) at the Catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT) locus has been identified as a potential etiological factor in schizophrenia. Yet the association has not been convincingly replicated across independent samples. We hypothesized that phenotypic heterogeneity might be diluting the COMT effect. To clarify the putative association, we performed an exploratory analysis to test for association between COMT and five psychosis symptom scales. These were derived through factor analysis of the Operational Criteria Checklist for Psychiatric Illness. Our sample was the Irish Study of High Density Schizophrenia Families, a large collection consisting of 268 multiplex families. This sample has previously shown a small but significant effect of the COMT Val allele in conferring risk for schizophrenia. We tested for preferential transmission of COMT alleles from parent to affected offspring (n = 749) for each of the five factor-derived scales (negative symptoms, delusions, hallucinations, mania, and depression). Significant overtransmission of the Val allele was found for mania (P <0.05) and depression (P = 0.01) scales. Examination of odds ratios (ORs) revealed a heterogeneous effect of COMT, whereby it had no effect on Negative Symptoms, but largest impact on Depression (OR = 1.4). These results suggest a modest affective vulnerability conferred by this allele in psychosis, but will require replication.