The PREDICTS database: a global database of how local terrestrial biodiversity responds to human impacts

Biodiversity continues to decline in the face of increasing anthropogenic pressures such as habitat destruction, exploitation, pollution and introduction of alien species. Existing global databases of species' threat status or population time series are dominated by charismatic species. The collation of datasets with broad taxonomic and biogeographic extents, and that support computation of a range of biodiversity indicators, is necessary to enable better understanding of historical declines and to project - and avert - future declines. We describe and assess a new database of more than 1.6 million samples from 78 countries representing over 28,000 species, collated from existing spatial comparisons of local-scale biodiversity exposed to different intensities and types of anthropogenic pressures, from terrestrial sites around the world. The database contains measurements taken in 208 (of 814) ecoregions, 13 (of 14) biomes, 25 (of 35) biodiversity hotspots and 16 (of 17) megadiverse countries. The database contains more than 1% of the total number of all species described, and more than 1% of the described species within many taxonomic groups - including flowering plants, gymnosperms, birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians, beetles, lepidopterans and hymenopterans. The dataset, which is still being added to, is therefore already considerably larger and more representative than those used by previous quantitative models of biodiversity trends and responses. The database is being assembled as part of the PREDICTS project (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems - http://www.predicts.org.uk). We make site-level summary data available alongside this article. The full database will be publicly available in 2015.

Soil-Landscape relationships at the lower reaches of a watershed at Bear Creek near Oak Ridge, Tennessee

The watersheds at Bear Creek, Oak Ridge, TN, have similar soil–landscape relationships. The lower reaches of many of these watersheds consist of headwater riparian wetlands situated between sloping non-wetland upland zones. The objectives of this study are to examine the effects of (i) slope and geomorphic processes, (ii) human impacts, and (iii) particular characteristics of soils and saprolite that may effect drainage and water movement in the wetlands and adjacent landscapes in one of these watersheds. A transect was run from west to east in a hydrological monitored area at the lower reaches of a watershed on Bear Creek. This transect extended from a steep side slope position across a floodplain, a terrace, and a shoulder slope. On the upland positions of the Nolichucky Shale, mass wasting, overland flow and soil creep currently inhibit soil formation on the steep side slope position where a Typic Dystrudept is present, while soil stability on the shoulder slope has resulted in the formation of a well-developed Typic Hapludult. In these soils, argillic horizons occur above C horizons on less sloping gradients in comparison to steeper slopes, which have Bw horizons over Cr (saprolite) material. A riparian wetland area occupies the floodplain section, where a Typic Endoaquept is characterized by poorly drained conditions that led to the development of redoximorphic features (mottling), gleying, organic matter accumulation, and minimal development of subsurface horizons. A thin colluvial deposit overlies a thick well developed Aquic Hapludalf that formed in alluvial sediments on the terrace position. The colluvial deposit from the adjacent shoulder slope is thought to result from soil creep and anthropogenic erosion caused by past cultivation practices. Runoff from the adjacent sloping landscape and groundwater from the adjacent wetland area perhaps contribute to the somewhat poorly drained conditions of this profile. Perched watertables occur in upland positions due to dense saprolite and clay plugging in the shallow zones of the saprolite. However, no redoximorphic features are observed in the soil on the side slope due to high runoff. Remnants of the underlying shale saprolite, which occur as small discolored zones resembling mottles, are also present. The soils in the study have a CEC of

Spatial Allocation of Material Flow Analysis: A Geographic Information System Application of Material Flow Analysis in Ireland

This study concerns the spatial allocation of material flows, with emphasis on construction material in the Irish housing sector. It addresses some of the key issues concerning anthropogenic impact on the environment through spatial temporal visualisation of the flow of materials, wastes and emissions at different spatial levels. This is presented in the form of a spatial model, Spatial Allocation of Material Flow Analysis (SAMFA), which enables the simulation of construction material flows and associated energy use. SAMFA parallels the Island Limits project (EPA funded under 2004-SD-MS-22-M2), which aimed to create a material flow analysis of the Irish economy classified by industrial sector. SAMFA further develops this by attempting to establish the material flows at the subnational geographical scale that could be used in the development of local authority (LA) sustainability strategies and spatial planning frameworks by highlighting the cumulative environmental impacts of the development of the built environment. By drawing on the idea of planning support systems, SAMFA also aims to provide a cross-disciplinary, integrative medium for involving stakeholders in strategies for a sustainable built environment and, as such, would help illustrate the sustainability consequences of alternative The pilot run of the model in Kildare has shown that the model can be successfully calibrated and applied to develop alternative material flows and energy-use scenarios at the ED level. This has been demonstrated through the development of an integrated and a business-as-usual scenario, with the former integrating a range of potential material efficiency and energysaving policy options and the latter replicating conditions that best describe the current trend. Their comparison shows that the former is better than the latter in terms of both material and energy use. This report also identifies a number of potential areas of future research and areas of broader application. This includes improving the accuracy of the SAMFA model (e.g. by establishing actual life expectancy of buildings in the Irish context through field surveys) and the extension of the model to other Irish counties. This would establish SAMFA as a valuable predicting and monitoring tool that is capable of integrating national and local spatial planning objectives with actual environmental impacts. Furthermore, should the model prove successful at this level, it then has the potential to transfer the modelling approach to other areas of the built environment, such as commercial development and other key contributors of greenhouse emissions. The ultimate aim is to develop a meta-model for predicting the consequences of consumption patterns at the local scale. This therefore offers the possibility of creating critical links between socio technical systems with the most important challenge of all the limitations of the biophysical environment.

Environmental context determines multi-trophic effects of consumer species loss

Loss of biodiversity and nutrient enrichment are two of the main human impacts on ecosystems globally, yet we understand very little about the interactive effects of multiple stressors on natural communities and how this relates to biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Advancing our understanding requires the following: (1) incorporation of processes occurring within and among trophic levels in natural ecosystems and (2) tests of context-dependency of species loss effects. We examined the effects of loss of a key predator and two groups of its prey on algal assemblages at both ambient and enriched nutrient conditions in a marine benthic system and tested for interactions between the loss of functional diversity and nutrient enrichment on ecosystem functioning. We found that enrichment interacted with food web structure to alter the effects of species loss in natural communities. At ambient conditions, the loss of primary consumers led to an increase in biomass of algae, whereas predator loss caused a reduction in algal biomass (i.e. a trophic cascade). However, contrary to expectations, we found that nutrient enrichment negated the cascading effect of predators on algae. Moreover, algal assemblage structure varied in distinct ways in response to mussel loss, grazer loss, predator loss and with nutrient enrichment, with compensatory shifts in algal abundance driven by variation in responses of different algal species to different environmental conditions and the presence of different consumers. We identified and characterized several context-dependent mechanisms driving direct and indirect effects of consumers. Our findings highlight the need to consider environmental context when examining potential species redundancies in particular with regard to changing environmental conditions. Furthermore, non-trophic interactions based on empirical evidence must be incorporated into food web-based ecological models to improve understanding of community responses to global change.

Identification of 100 fundamental ecological questions

Fundamental ecological research is both intrinsically interesting and provides the basic knowledge required to answer applied questions of importance to the management of the natural world. The 100th anniversary of the British Ecological Society in 2013 is an opportune moment to reflect on the current status of ecology as a science and look forward to high-light priorities for future work. To do this, we identified 100 important questions of fundamental importance in pure ecology. We elicited questions from ecologists working across a wide range of systems and disciplines. The 754 questions submitted (listed in the online appendix) from 388 participants were narrowed down to the final 100 through a process of discussion, rewording and repeated rounds of voting. This was done during a two-day workshop and thereafter. The questions reflect many of the important current conceptual and technical pre-occupations of ecology. For example, many questions concerned the dynamics of environmental change and complex ecosystem interactions, as well as the interaction between ecology and evolution. The questions reveal a dynamic science with novel subfields emerging. For example, a group of questions was dedicated to disease and micro-organisms and another on human impacts and global change reflecting the emergence of new subdisciplines that would not have been foreseen a few decades ago. The list also contained a number of questions that have perplexed ecologists for decades and are still seen as crucial to answer, such as the link between population dynamics and life-history evolution. Synthesis. These 100 questions identified reflect the state of ecology today. Using them as an agenda for further research would lead to a substantial enhancement in understanding of the discipline, with practical relevance for the conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem function. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

‘Invasional meltdown’: evidence for unexpected consequences and cumulative impacts of multispecies invasions

Empirical support for ‘invasional meltdown’, where the presence of one invading species facilitates another and compounds negative impacts on indigenous species, is equivocal with few convincing studies. In Ireland, the bank vole was introduced 80 years ago and now occupies a third of the island. The greater white-toothed shrew arrived more recently within the invasive range of the bank vole. We surveyed the abundance of both invasive species and two indigenous species, the wood mouse and pygmy shrew, throughout their respective ranges. The negative effects of invasive on indigenous species were strong and cumulative bringing about species replacement. The greater white-toothed shrew, the second invader, had a positive and synergistic effect on the abundance of the bank vole, the first invader, but a negative and compounding effect on the abundance of the wood mouse and occurrence of the pygmy shrew. The gradual replacement of the wood mouse by the bank vole decreased with distance from the point of the bank vole’s introduction whilst no pygmy shrews were captured where both invasive species were present. Such interactions may not be unique to invasions but characteristic of all multispecies communities. Small mammals are central in terrestrial food webs and compositional changes to this community in Ireland are likely to reverberate throughout the ecosystem. Vegetation composition and structure, invertebrate communities and the productivity of avian and mammalian predators are likely to be affected. Control of these invasive species may only be effected through landscape and habitat management.

Combining environmental and medical datasets to explore potential associations between environmental factors and health: Policy implications for human health risk assessments

This review paper discusses the use of Tellus and Tellus Border soil and stream geochemistry data to investigate the relationship between medical data and naturally occurring background levels of potentially toxic elements (PTEs) such as heavy metals in soils and water. The research hypothesis is that long-term low level oral exposure of PTEs via soil and water may result in cumulative exposures that may act as risk factors for progressive diseases including cancer and chronic kidney disease. A number of public policy implications for regional human health risk assessments, public health policy and education are also explored alongside the argument for better integration of multiple data sets to enhance ongoing medical and social research. This work presents a partnership between the School of Geography, Archaeology and Palaeoecology, Northern Ireland Cancer Registry, Queen’s University Belfast, and the nephrology (kidney medicine) research group.

Macro impacts on caseworker decision-making in child welfare: a cross-national comparison

This paper focuses on the factors impacting on decision-making in child and family social work through a cross-national comparison. In doing so, the larger arena of the political and social contexts of both the United States and Northern Ireland are examined. For each of the countries we describe the historical and political context of child welfare, particularly the tension between child safety and family support, and how children’s rights are attended to and interpreted in each country. This discussion also examines the extent to which decision-making in each jurisdiction is influenced by constitutional imperatives, with particular reference to the US Constitution and the European Convention on Human Rights. From this general comparison we conclude with observations about child welfare decision-making within the national context and offer suggestions for further theoretical development in this area whilst also examining where the practices in each jurisdiction may benefit from review.

Mid- to late-Holocene climate variability and anthropogenic impacts: multi-proxy evidence from Lake Bliden, Denmark

We conducted multi-proxy geochemical analyses (including measurements of organic carbon, nitrogen and sulphur stable isotope composition, and carbonate carbon and oxygen isotope composition) on a 13.5 m sediment core from Lake Bliden, Denmark, which provide a record of shifting hydrological conditions for the past 6,700 years. The early part of the stratigraphic record (6,700-5,740 cal year BP) was wet, based on delta O-18(carb) and lithology, and corresponds to the Holocene Thermal Maximum. Shifts in primarily delta O-18(carb) indicate dry conditions prevailed from 5,740 to 2,800 cal year BP, although this was interrupted by very wet conditions from 5,300 to 5,150, 4,300 to 4,050 and 3,700 to 3,450 cal year BP. The timing of the latter two moist intervals is consistent with other Scandinavian paleoclimatic records. Dry conditions at Lake Bliden between 3,450 and 2,800 cal year BP is consistent with other paleolimnological records from southern Sweden but contrasts with records in central Sweden, possibly suggesting a more northerly trajectory of prevailing westerlies carrying moisture from the North Atlantic at this time. Overall, fluctuating moisture conditions at Lake Bliden appear to be strongly linked to changing sea surface temperatures in the Greenland, Iceland and Norwegian seas. After 2,800 cal year BP, sedimentology, magnetic susceptibility, delta C-13(ORG), delta C-13(carb) and delta O-18(carb) indicate a major reduction on water level, which caused the depositional setting at the coring site to shift from the profundal to littoral zone. The Roman Warm Period (2,200-1,500 cal year BP) appears dry based on enriched delta O-18(carb) values. Possible effects of human disturbance in the watershed after 820 cal year BP complicate attempts to interpret the stratigraphic record although tentative interpretation of the delta O-18(carb), magnetic susceptibility, delta C-13(ORG), delta C-13(carb) and delta O-18(carb) records suggest that the Medieval Warm Period was dry and the Little Ice Age was wet.

Proteomic profiling of human retinal pigment epithelium exposed to an advanced glycation-modified substrate

Purpose The retinal pigment epithelium (RPE) and underlying Bruch’s membrane undergo significant modulation during ageing. Progressive, age-related modifications of lipids and proteins by advanced glycation end products (AGEs) at this cell–substrate interface have been implicated in RPE dysfunction and the progression to age-related macular degeneration (AMD). The pathogenic nature of these adducts in Bruch’s membrane and their influence on the overlying RPE remains unclear. This study aimed to identify alterations in RPE protein expression in cells exposed to AGE-modified basement membrane (AGE-BM), to determine how this “aged” substrate impacts RPE function and to map the localisation of identified proteins in ageing retina. Methods Confluent ARPE-19 monolayers were cultured on AGE-BM and native, non-modified BM (BM). Following 28-day incubation, the proteome was profiled using 2-dimensional gel electrophoresis (2D), densitometry and image analysis was employed to map proteins of interest that were identified by electrospray ionisation mass spectrometry (ESI MS/MS). Immunocytochemistry was employed to localise identified proteins in ARPE-19 monolayers cultured on unmodified and AGE-BM and to analyze aged human retina. Results Image analysis detected altered protein spot densities between treatment groups, and proteins of interest were identified by LC ESI MS/MS which included heat-shock proteins, cytoskeletal and metabolic regulators. Immunocytochemistry revealed deubiquitinating enzyme ubiquitin carboxyterminal hydrolase-1 (UCH-L1), which was upregulated in AGE-exposed RPE and was also localised to RPE in human retinal sections. Conclusions This study has demonstrated that AGE-modification of basement membrane alters the RPE proteome. Many proteins are changed in this ageing model, including UCHL-1, which could impact upon RPE degradative capacity. Accumulation of AGEs at Bruch”s membrane could play a significant role in age-related dysfunction of the RPE.

Impacts of sewage outfalls on rocky shores: incorporating scale, biotic assemblage structure and variability into monitoring tools.

Coastal systems, such as rocky shores, are among the most heavily anthropogenically-impacted marine ecosystems and are also among the most productive in terms of ecosystem functioning. One of the greatest impacts on coastal ecosystems is nutrient enrichment from human activities such as agricultural run-off and discharge of sewage. The aim of this study was to identify and characterise potential effects of sewage discharges on the biotic diversity of rocky shores and to test current tools for assessing the ecological status of rocky shores in line with the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD). A sampling strategy was designed to test for effects of sewage outfalls on rocky shore assemblages on the east coast of Ireland and to identify the scale of the putative impact. In addition, a separate sampling programme based on the Reduced algal Species List (RSL), the current WFD monitoring tool for rocky shores in Ireland and the UK, was also completed by identifying algae and measuring percent cover in replicate samples on rocky shores during Summer. There was no detectable effect of sewage outfalls on benthic taxon diversity or assemblage structure. However, spatial variability of assemblages was greater at sites proximal or adjacent to sewage outfalls compared to shores without sewage outfalls present. Results based on the RSL, show that algal assemblages were not affected by the presence of sewage outfalls, except when classed into functional groups when variability was greater at the sites with sewage outfalls. A key finding of both surveys, was the prevalence of spatial and temporal variation of assemblages. It is recommended that future metrics of ecological status are based on quantified sampling designs, incorporate changes in variability of assemblages (indicative of community stability), consider shifts in assemblage structure and include both benthic fauna and flora to assess the status of rocky shores.