7 resultados para confidence level

em QUB Research Portal - Research Directory and Institutional Repository for Queen's University Belfast


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One of the mechanisms proposed for heating the corona above solar active regions is the damping of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) waves. Continuing on previous work, we provide observational evidence for the existence of high-frequency MHD waves in coronal loops observed during the August 1999 total solar eclipse. A wavelet analysis is used to identify twenty 4 x 4 arcsec(2) areas showing intensity oscillations. All detections lie in the frequency range 0.15 - 0.25 Hz (7 - 4 s), last for at least 3 periods at a confidence level of more than 99% and arise just outside known coronal loops. This leads us to suggest that they occur in low emission-measure or different temperature loops associated with the active region.

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Aims.We aim to provide the atmospheric parameters and rotational velocities for a large sample of O- and early B-type stars, analysed in a homogeneous and consistent manner, for use in constraining theoretical models. Methods: Atmospheric parameters, stellar masses, and rotational velocities have been estimated for approximately 250 early B-type stars in the Large (LMC) and Small (SMC) Magellanic Clouds from high-resolution VLT-FLAMES data using the non-LTE TLUSTY model atmosphere code. This data set has been supplemented with our previous analyses of some 50 O-type stars (Mokiem et al. 2006, 2007) and 100 narrow-lined early B-type stars (Hunter et al. 2006; Trundle et al. 2007) from the same survey, providing a sample of ~400 early-type objects. Results: Comparison of the rotational velocities with evolutionary tracks suggests that the end of core hydrogen burning occurs later than currently predicted and we argue for an extension of the evolutionary tracks. We also show that the large number of the luminous blue supergiants observed in the fields are unlikely to have directly evolved from main-sequence massive O-type stars as neither their low rotational velocities nor their position on the H-R diagram are predicted. We suggest that blue loops or mass-transfer binary systems may populate the blue supergiant regime. By comparing the rotational velocity distributions of the Magellanic Cloud stars to a similar Galactic sample, we find that (at 3s confidence level) massive stars (above 8 M?) in the SMC rotate faster than those in the solar neighbourhood. However there appears to be no significant difference between the rotational velocity distributions in the Galaxy and the LMC. We find that the v sin i distributions in the SMC and LMC can modelled with an intrinsic rotational velocity distribution that is a Gaussian peaking at 175 km s-1 (SMC) and 100 km s-1 (LMC) with a 1/e half width of 150 km s-1. We find that in NGC 346 in the SMC, the 10-25 M? main-sequence stars appear to rotate faster than their higher mass counterparts. It is not expected that O-type stars spin down significantly through angular momentum loss via stellar winds at SMC metallicity, hence this could be a reflection of mass dependent birth spin rates. Recently Yoon et al. (2006) have determined rates of GRBs by modelling rapidly rotating massive star progenitors. Our measured rotational velocity distribution for the 10-25 M? stars is peaked at slightly higher velocities than they assume, supporting the idea that GRBs could come from rapid rotators with initial masses as low as 14 M? at low metallicities.

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The POINT-AGAPE collaboration is carrying out a search for gravitational microlensing toward M31 to reveal galactic dark matter in the form of MACHOs (Massive Astrophysical Compact Halo Objects) in the halos of the Milky Way and M31. A high-threshold analysis of 3 years of data yields 6 bright, short- duration microlensing events, which are confronted to a simulation of the observations and the analysis. The observed signal is much larger than expected from self lensing alone and we conclude, at the 95% confidence level, that at least 20% of the halo mass in the direction of M31 must be in the form of MACHOs if their average mass lies in the range 0.5-1 M-circle dot. This lower bound drops to 8% for MACHOs with masses similar to 0.01 M-circle dot. In addition, we discuss a likely binary microlensing candidate with caustic crossing. Its location, some 32' away from the centre of M31, supports our conclusion that we are detecting a MACHO signal in the direction of M31.

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The 1950s excavations by Charles McBurney in the Haua Fteah, a large karstic cave on the coast of northeast Libya, revealed a deep sequence of human occupation. Most subsequent research on North African prehistory refers to his discoveries and interpretations, but the chronology of its archaeological and geological sequences has been based on very early age determinations. This paper reports on the initial results of a comprehensive multi-method dating program undertaken as part of new work at the site, involving radiocarbon dating of charcoal, land snails and marine shell, cryptotephra investigations, optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating of sediments, and electron spin resonance (ESR) dating of tooth enamel. The dating samples were collected from the newly exposed and cleaned faces of the upper 7.5m of the ~14.0m-deep McBurney trench, which contain six of the seven major cultural phases that he identified. Despite problems of sediment transport and reworking, using a Bayesian statistical model the new dating program establishes a robust framework for the five major lithostratigraphic units identified in the stratigraphic succession, and for the major cultural units. The age of two anatomically modern human mandibles found by McBurney in Layer XXXIII near the base of his Levalloiso-Mousterian phase can now be estimated to between 73 and 65ka (thousands of years ago) at the 95.4% confidence level, within Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 4. McBurney's Layer XXV, associated with Upper Palaeolithic Dabban blade industries, has a clear stratigraphic relationship with Campanian Ignimbrite tephra. Microlithic Oranian technologies developed following the climax of the Last Glacial Maximum and the more microlithic Capsian in the Younger Dryas. Neolithic pottery and perhaps domestic livestock were used in the cave from the mid Holocene but there is no certain evidence for plant cultivation until the Graeco-Roman period. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

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Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) follows a variable clinical course which is difficult to predict at diagnosis. We assessed somatic mutation (SHM) status, CD38 and ZAP-70 expression in 87 patients (49 male, 38 female) with stage A CLL and known cytogenetic profile to compare their role in predicting disease progression, which was assessed by the treatment free interval (TFI) from diagnosis. Sixty (69%) patients were SHM+, 24 (28%) were CD38+ and ten (12%) were ZAP-70+. The median TFI for: (i) SHM + versus SHM- patients was 124 versus 26 months; hazard ratio (HR) = 3.6 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.8 - 7.3; P = 0.001]: (ii) CD38- versus CD38+ patients was 120 versus 34 months; HR = 2.4 (95% CI = 1.4 - 5.3; P = 0.02); and (iii) ZAP70- versus ZAP70+ was 120 versus 16 months; HR = 3.4 (95% CI = 1.4 - 8.7; P = 0.01). SHM status and CD38 retained prognostic significance on multivariate analysis whereas ZAP-70 did not. We conclude that ZAP-70 analysis does not provide additional prognostic information in this group of patients.

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In January 2014, the Northern Ireland Policing Board (NIPB) commissioned the University of Ulster to conduct research into public confidence in policing to help inform the work of the Board and its oversight of police service delivery. More specifically, the research team were tasked with exploring ‘the key drivers of confidence in Northern Ireland’. To date, the subject of ‘confidence in policing’ within a Northern Ireland context has been relatively under researched, both in academic and policy terms. Thus, the present research is the first empirical research to be produced in the country to empirically assess confidence in policing from a cross section of society – including the key dynamics and drivers that underpin police confidence at a community level.

The report begins with a comprehensive review of academic literature, policy documents and contemporary events related to confidence in policing. The research then provides an overview of the methodology used to undertake the research, with the remainder of the report comprised of the findings from the survey. The report concludes with an overview of the central findings along with a series of recommendations.

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n January 2014, the Northern Ireland Policing Board (NIPB) commissioned the University of Ulster to conduct research into public confidence in policing to help inform the work of the Board and its oversight of police service delivery. More specifically, the research team were tasked with exploring ‘the influence that politicians, community leaders and the media have on public confidence in policing in Northern Ireland’. To date, the subject of ‘confidence in policing’ within a Northern Ireland context has been relatively under researched, both in academic and policy terms. Thus, the present research is the first empirical research to be produced in Northern Ireland which considers the issue of confidence in policing from the perspective of community leaders, politicians and the media – including the key influences and dynamics which underpin police confidence at a community level.

The report begins with a comprehensive review of academic literature, policy documents and contemporary events related to confidence in policing. The research then provides an overview of the methodology used to undertake the research, with the remainder of the report comprised of the findings from the discussions with representatives from the media, political parties and the community and voluntary sector who participated. The report concludes with an overview of the central findings along with a series of recommendations.