The Climate of War: Violence, Warfare and Climatic Reductionism

National security agencies and other interested parties now often regard conflict as the inevitable consequence of climate change. This inclination to reduce war to the vicissitudes of climate is not new however. Here I examine some of the earlier ways in which violence was attributed to climatic conditions, particularly in the United States, and trace links between these older advocates of climatic determinism and the recent writings of those insisting that climate change will usher in a grim world of chronic warfare. It ends by drawing attention to the writings of some critics who are troubled by the ease with which climatic reductionism is capturing the public imagination.

The distribution of Fasciola hepatica and Fasciola gigantica within southern Tanzania - constraints associated with the intermediate host

In East Africa, Fasciola gigantica is generally the causative agent of fasciolosis but there have been reports of F. hepatica in cattle from highland regions of Kenya, Ethiopia, Uganda and Zaire. The topography of the Southern Highlands of Tanzania provides an environment where the climatic conditions exist for the sustenance of lymnaeid species capable of Supporting both Fasciola hepatica and F. gigantica. Theoretically this would allow interaction between fasciolid species and the possible creation of hybrids. In this report we present molecular data confirming the existence of the snail, Lymnaea truncatula, at high altitude on the Kitulo Plateau of the Southern Highlands, Tanzania, along with morphometric and molecular data confirming the presence of F. hepatica in the corresponding area. At lower altitudes, where climatic conditions were unfavourable for the existence of L. truncatula, the presence of its sister species L. natalensis was confirmed by molecular data along with its preferred fasciolid parasite, F. gigantica. Analysis based on a 618 bp sequence of the 28S rRNA gene did not reveal the presence of hybrid fasciolids in our fluke samples.

Comparative seasonal acclimatization of food and energy consumption in adjacent populations of common spiny mice (Acomys cahirinus)

Animals inhabiting environments with low productivity and food availability commonly have reduced energy demands and increased digestive efficiencies. The dry matter intake (DMI), apparent digestible dry matter (ADDM), digestible efficiency (DE) and digestible energy intake (DEI) of two populations of common spiny mouse Acomys cahirinus were compared during both winter and summer under conditions of simulated water stress. Mice were captured from the north- and south-facing slopes (NFS and SFS) of the same canyon that represent mesic and xeric habitats, respectively. Measured variables were also compared between F-1 mice that had been born to either NFS or SFS mice, and raised in the laboratory. SFS mice were able to assimilate energy more efficiently than NFS mice during the summer. By comparison, NFS mice were able to assimilate more energy during the winter. During winter, NFS mice assimilated more energy at low levels of water stress, whereas SFS mice assimilated more energy at higher levels. Differences were also apparent in F-1 mice. It is therefore suggested that local climatic conditions can impose physiological adaptations that are retained in succeeding generations, creating unique meta-populations.

Vegetation and climate c. 12 300-9000 cal. yr BP at Andoya, NW Norway

Owing to proximity of the North Atlantic Stream and the shelf, the And circle divide ya biota are assumed to have responded rapidly to climatic changes taking place after the Weichselian glaciation. Palynological, macrofossil, loss-on-ignition, tephra and C-14 data from three sites at the northern part of the island of And circle divide ya were studied. The period 12 300-11 950 cal. yr BP was characterized by polar desert vegetation, and 11 950-11 050 cal. yr BP by a moisture-demanding predominantly low-arctic Oxyria vegetation. During the period 11 050-10 650 cal. yr BP, there was a climatic amelioration towards a sub-arctic climate and heaths dominated by Empetrum. After 10 650 cal. yr BP the Oxyria vegetation disappeared. As early as about 10 800 cal. yr BP the bryozoan Cristatella mucedo indicated a climate sufficient for Betula woodland. However, tree birch did not establish until 10 420-10 250 cal. yr BP, indicating a time-lag for the formation of Betula ecotypes adapted to the oceanic climate of And circle divide ya. From about 10 150 to 9400 cal. yr BP the summers were dry and warm. There was a change towards moister, though comparatively warm, climatic conditions about 9400 cal. yr BP. The present data are compared with evidence from marine sediments and the deglaciation history in the region. It is suggested that during most of the period 11 500-10 250 cal. yr BP a similar situation as in present southern Greenland existed, with birch woodland in the inner fjords near the ice sheet and low-arctic heath vegetation along the outer coast.

Estimating the Density of Honeybee Colonies across Their Natural Range to Fill the Gap in Pollinator Decline Censuses

Although pollinator declines are a global biodiversity threat, the demography of the western honeybee (Apis mellifera) has not been considered by conservationists because it is biased by the activity of beekeepers. To fill this gap in pollinator decline censuses and to provide a broad picture of the current status of honeybees across their natural range, we used microsatellite genetic markers to estimate colony densities and genetic diversity at different locations in Europe, Africa, and central Asia that had different patterns of land use. Genetic diversity and colony densities were highest in South Africa and lowest in Northern Europe and were correlated with mean annual temperature. Confounding factors not related to climate, however, are also likely to influence genetic diversity and colony densities in honeybee populations. Land use showed a significantly negative influence over genetic diversity and the density of honeybee colonies over all sampling locations. In Europe honeybees sampled in nature reserves had genetic diversity and colony densities similar to those sampled in agricultural landscapes, which suggests that the former are not wild but may have come from managed hives. Other results also support this idea: putative wild bees were rare in our European samples, and the mean estimated density of honeybee colonies on the continent closely resembled the reported mean number of managed hives. Current densities of European honeybee populations are in the same range as those found in the adverse climatic conditions of the Kalahari and Saharan deserts, which suggests that beekeeping activities do not compensate for the loss of wild colonies. Our findings highlight the importance of reconsidering the conservation status of honeybees in Europe and of regarding beekeeping not only as a profitable business for producing honey, but also as an essential component of biodiversity conservation.

Micro-Environmental monitoring of temperature and moisture changes in building stone

The monitoring of temperature and moisture changes in response to different micro-environment of building stones is essential to understand the material behaviour and the degradation mechanisms. From a practical point of view, having a continuous and detailed understanding of micro-environmental changes in building stones helps to assist in their maintenance and repair strategies. Temperature within the stone is usually monitored by means of thermistors, whereas wide ranges of techniques are available for monitoring the moisture. In the case of concrete an electrical resistance method has previously been used as an inexpensive tool for monitoring moisture changes. This paper describes the adaptation of this technique and describes its further development for monitoring moisture movement in building stones.
In this study a block of limestone was subjected to intermittent infrared radiation with programmed cycles of ambient temperature, rainfall and wind conditions in an automated climatic chamber. The temperature and moisture changes at different depths within the stone were monitored by means of bead thermistors and electrical resistance sensors. This experiment has helped to understand the thermal conductivity and moisture transport from surface into deeper parts of the stone at different simulated extreme climatic conditions. Results indicated that variations in external ambient conditions could substantially affect the moisture transport and temperature profile within the micro-environment of building stones and hence they could have a significant impact on stone decay.

Holocene environmental changes in northeast Thailand as reconstructed from a tropical wetland

Geochemical variables (TOC, C/N, TS, delta C-13) and diatom assemblages were analyzed in a lake sediment sequence from Nong (Lake) Han Kumphawapi in northeast Thailand to reconstruct regional climatic and environmental history during the Holocene. By around c. 10,000-9400 cal yr BP, a large shallow freshwater lake had formed in the Kumphawapi basin. Oxygenated bottom waters and a well-mixed water column were characteristic of this early lake stage, which was probably initiated by higher effective moisture and a stronger summer monsoon. Decreased run-off after c. 6700 cal yr BP favored increased aquatic productivity in the shallow lake. Multiple proxies indicate a marked lowering of the lake level around 5900 cal yr BP, the development of an extensive wetland around 5400 cal yr BP, and the subsequent transition to a peatland. The shift from shallow lake to wetland and later to a peatland is interpreted as a response to lower effective moisture. A hiatus at the transition from wetland to peatland suggests very low accumulation rates, which may result from very dry climatic conditions. A rise in groundwater and lake level around 3200 cal yr BP allowed the re-establishment of a wetland in the Kumphawapi basin. However, the sediments deposited between c. 3200 and 1600 cal yr BP provide evidence for at least two hiatuses at c. 2700-2500 cal yr BP, and at c. 1900-1600 cal yr BP, which would suggest surface dryness and consequently periods of low effective moisture. Around 1600 cal yr BP a new shallow lake became re-established in the basin. Although the underlying causes for this new lake phase remain unclear, we hypothesize that higher effective moisture was the main driving force. This shallow lake phase continued up to the present but was interrupted by higher nutrient fluxes to the lake around 1000-600 cal yr BP. Whether this was caused by intensified human impact in the catchment or, whether this signals a lowering of the lake level due to reduced effective moisture, needs to be corroborated by further studies in the region. The multi-proxy study of Kumphawapi's sediment core CP3A clearly shows that Kumphawapi is a sensitive archive for recording past shifts in effective moisture, and as such in the intensity of the Asian summer monsoon. Many more continental paleorecords, however, will be needed to fully understand the spatial and temporal patterns of past changes in Asian monsoon intensity and its ecosystem impacts. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Identifying appropriate sampling and modelling approaches for analysing distributional patterns of Antarctic terrestrial arthropods along the Victoria Land latitudinal gradient

Biotic communities in Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems are relatively simple and often lack higher trophic levels (e. g. predators); thus, it is often assumed that species' distributions are mainly affected by abiotic factors such as climatic conditions, which change with increasing latitude, altitude and/or distance from the coast. However, it is becoming increasingly apparent that factors other than geographical gradients affect the distribution of organisms with low dispersal capability such as the terrestrial arthropods. In Victoria Land (East Antarctica) the distribution of springtail (Collembola) and mite (Acari) species vary at scales that range from a few square centimetres to regional and continental. Different species show different scales of variation that relate to factors such as local geological and glaciological history, and biotic interactions, but only weakly with latitudinal/altitudinal gradients. Here, we review the relevant literature and outline more appropriate sampling designs as well as suitable modelling techniques (e. g. linear mixed models and eigenvector mapping), that will more adequately address and identify the range of factors responsible for the distribution of terrestrial arthropods in Antarctica.

Late Pleistocene climate change and landscape dynamics in the Eastern Alps: the inner-alpine Unterangerberg record (Austria)

Drill cores from the inner-alpine valley terrace of Unterangerberg, located in the Eastern Alps of Austria, offer first insights into a Pleistocene sedimentary record that was not accessible so far. The succession comprises diamict, gravel, sand, lignite and thick, fine grained sediments. Additionally, cataclastic deposits originating from two paleo-landslide events are present. Multi-proxy analyses including sedimentological and palynological investigations as well as radiocarbon and luminescence data record the onset of the last glacial period (Wurmian) at Unterangerberg at similar to 120-110 ka. This first time period, correlated to the MIS 5d, was characterised by strong fluvial aggradation under cold climatic conditions, with only sparse vegetation cover. Furthermore, two large and quasi-synchronous landslide events occurred during this time interval. No record of the first Early Wiirmian interstadial (MIS 5c) is preserved. During the second Early Wiirmian interstadial (MIS 5a), the local vegetation was characterised by a boreal forest dominated by Picea, with few thermophilous elements. The subsequent collapse of the vegetation is recorded by sediments dated to similar to 70-60 ka (i.e. MIS 4), with very low pollen concentrations and the potential presence of permafrost. Climatic conditions improved again between similar to 55 and 45 ka (MIS 3) and cold-adapted trees re-appeared during interstadials, forming an open forest vegetation. MIS 3 stadials were shorter and less severe than the MIS 4 at Unterangerberg, and vegetation during these cold phases was mainly composed of shrubs, herbs and grasses, similar to what is known from today's alpine timberline. The Unterangerberg record ended at similar to 45 ka and/or was truncated by ice during the Last Glacial Maximum. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Testing the efficacy of the glacial buzzsaw: insights from the Sredinny Mountains, Kamchatka

Peak altitudes, hypsometry, geology, and former equilibrium-line altitudes (ELAs) are analyzed across the Sredinny Mountains (Kamchatka). Overall, evidence is found to suggest that the glacial buzzsaw has operated to shape the topography of this mountain range, but the strength of this signature is not spatially uniform. In the southern sector of the mountains, we see evidence that an efficient glacial buzzsaw has acted to impose constraints upon topography, limiting peak altitudes, and concentrating land-surface area (hypsometric maxima) close to palaeo-ELAs. By contrast, in the northern sector of the mountains, a number of peaks rise high above the surrounding topography, and land-surface area is concentrated well below palaeo-ELAs. This deviation from a classic ‘buzzsaw signature’, in the northern sector of the mountains, is considered to reflect volcanic construction during the Quaternary, resulting in a series of high altitude peaks, combined with the action of dynamic glaciers, acting to skew basin topography toward low altitudes, well below palaeo-ELAs. These glaciers are considered to have been particularly dynamic because of their off-shore termination, their proximity to moisture-bearing air masses from the North Pacific, and because accumulation was supplemented by snow and ice avalanching from local high altitude peaks. Overall, the data suggest that the buzzsaw remains a valid mechanism to generally explain landscape evolution in mountain regions, but its signature is significantly weakened in mountain basins that experience both volcanic construction and climatic conditions favouring dynamic glaciation.

Care and Management of Ancient Stone Monuments During Environmental Change

Ancient stone monuments (ASMs), such as standing stones and rock art panels, are powerful and iconic expressions of Britain’s rich prehistoric past that have major economic and tourism value. However, ASMs are under pressure due to increasing anthropogenic exposure and changing climatic conditions, which accelerate their rates of disrepair. Although scientific data exists on the integrity of stone monuments, most applies to “built” systems; therefore, additional work specific to ASMs in the countryside is needed to develop better-informed safeguarding strategies. Here, we use Neolithic and Bronze Age rock art panels across Northern England as a case study for delineating ASM management actions required to enhance monument preservation. The state of the rock art is described first, including factors that led to current conditions. Rock art management approaches then are described within the context of future environments, which models suggest to be more dynamic and locally variable. Finally, a Condition Assessment and Risk Evaluation (CARE) scheme is proposed to help prioritise interventions; an example of which is provided based on stone deterioration at Petra in Jordon. We conclude that more focused scientific and behavioural data, specific to deterioration mechanisms, are required for an ASM CARE scheme to be successful.

Condition Assessment and Preservation of Open-Air Rock Art Panels During Climate Change

Thousands of Neolithic and Bronze Age open-air rock art panels exist across the countryside in northern England. However, desecration, pollution, and other factors are threatening the survival of these iconic stone monuments. Evidence suggest that rates of panel deterioration may be increasing, although it is not clear whether this is due to local factors or wider environmental influences accelerated by environmental change. To examine this question, 18 rock art panels with varied art motifs were studied at two major panel locations at Lordenshaw and Weetwood Moor in Northumberland. A condition assessment
tool was used to first quantify the level of deterioration of each panel (called “staging”). Stage estimates then were compared statistically with 27 geochemical and physical descriptors of local environments, such as soil moisture, salinity, pH, lichen coverage, soil anions and cation levels, and panel orientation, slope, and standing height. In parallel, climate modelling was performed using UKCP09 to assess how projected climatic conditions (to 2099) might affect the environmental descriptors most correlated with elevated stone deterioration. Only two descriptors significantly correlated (P < 0.05) with increased stage: the standing height of the panel and the exchangeable cation content of the local soils, although moisture conditions also were potentially influential at some panels. Climate modelling predicts warming temperatures, more seasonally variable precipitation, and increased wind speeds, which hint stone deterioration could accelerate in the future due to increased physiochemical weathering. We recommend key panels be targeted for immediate management intervention, focusing on reducing wind exposures, improving site drainage, and potentially immobilizing soil salts.

Modelling the response of fresh groundwater to climate and vegetation changes in coral islands

In coral islands, groundwater is a crucial freshwater resource for terrestrial life, including human water supply. Response of the freshwater lens to expected climate changes and subsequent vegetation alterations is quantified for Grande Glorieuse, a low-lying coral island in the Western Indian Ocean. Distributed models of recharge, evapotranspiration and saltwater phytotoxicity are integrated into a variable-density groundwater model to simulate the evolution of groundwater salinity. Model results are assessed against field observations including groundwater and geophysical measurements. Simulations show the major control currently exerted by the vegetation with regards to the lens morphology and the high sensitivity of the lens to climate alterations, impacting both quantity and salinity. Long-term changes in mean sea level and climatic conditions (rainfall and evapotranspiration) are predicted to be responsible for an average increase in salinity approaching 140 % (+8 kg m-3) when combined. In low-lying areas with high vegetation density, these changes top +300 % (+10 kg m-3). However, due to salinity increase and its phytotoxicity, it is shown that a corollary drop in vegetation activity can buffer the alteration of fresh groundwater. This illustrates the importance of accounting for vegetation dynamics to study groundwater in coral islands.

Diagenetic Alterations and Reservoir Quality Evolution of Lower Cretaceous Fluvial Sandstones: Nubian Formation, Sirt Basin, North-Central Libya

Lower Cretaceous meandering and braided fluvial sandstones of the Nubian Formation form some of the most important subsurface reservoir rocks in the Sirt Basin, north-central Libya. Mineralogical, petrographical and geochemical analyses of sandstone samples from well BB6-59, Sarir oilfield, indicate that the meandering fluvial sandstones are fine- to very fine-grained subarkosic arenites (av. Q91F5L4), and that braided fluvial sandstones are medium- to very coarse-grained quartz arenites (av. Q96F3L1). The reservoir qualities of these sandstones were modified during both eodiagenesis (ca. <70oC; <2 km) and mesodiagenesis (ca. >70oC; >2km). Reservoir quality evolution was controlled primarily by the dissolution and kaolinitization of feldspars, micas and mud intraclasts during eodiagenesis, and by the amount and thicknessof grain-coating clays, chemical compaction and quartz overgrowths during mesodiagenesis. However, dissolution and kaolinitization of feldspars, micas and mud intraclasts resulted in the creation of intercrystalline micro- and mouldic macro-porosity and permeability during eodiagenesis, which were more widespread in braided fluvial than in meandering fluvial sandstones. This was because of the greater depositional porosity and permeability in the braided fluvial sandstones which enhanced percolation of meteoric waters. The development of only limited quartz overgrowths in the braided fluvial sandstones, in which quartz grains are coated by thick illite layers, retained high porosity and permeability (12-23 % and 30- 600 mD). By contrast, meandering fluvial sandstones underwent porosity loss as a result of quartz overgrowth development on quartz grains which lack or have thin and incomplete grain-coating illite (2-15 % and 0-0.1mD). Further loss of porosity in the meandering fluvial sandstones occurred as a result of chemical compaction (pressuredissolution) induced by the occurrence of micas along grains contacts. Otherdiagenetic alterations, such as the growth of pyrite, siderite, dolomite/ankerite and albitization, had little impact on reservoir quality. The albitization of feldspars may have had minor positive influence on reservoir quality throughthe creation of intercrystalline micro-porosity between albite crystals.The results of this study show that diagenetic modifications of the braided and meandering fluvial sandstones in the Nubian Formation, and resulting changes in reservoir quality, are closely linked to depositional porosity and permeability. They are also linked to the thickness of grain-coating infiltrated clays, and to variations in detrital composition, particularly the amounts of mud intraclasts, feldspars and mica grains as well as climatic conditions.